US withdrawal from Afghanistan resulted in immediate collapse of Afghan government. Taliban just walked over them.
The list of reasons attributed to the debacle is endless (probably more than the number of analysts). Some of the reasons include:-
- Taliban never abided by the terms of the agreement.
- Failure of Afghan military to counter the Taliban advance.
- Corruption in Afghan government.
- United States had forced the Afghan government to release imprisoned Taliban fighters.
- US did not understand the local psyche.
- US concentrated on equipment and training for Afghan military capability building, ignoring the mind factor.
External Factor: Pakistan
Major external factor is meddling of Pakistan in internal matters of Afghanistan in general and role in the fight against terrorism in particular.
Pakistan has been playing both sides i.e. Supporting the Taliban insurgency while portraying as the biggest ally of US in the war against terrorism.
In the last 20 years Pakistan has received billions (some reports say about 23 billion) from United States in security assistance and Coalition Support Funds
Pakistani deceived the Americans. They were preparing the Taliban to take over Afghanistan while portraying themselves as facilitators of peace talks and process.
Afghanistan government and military would have had a chance to fight and hold on longer if Pakistan had not encouraged, supported, and assisted the Taliban.
No Dearth of Proof
Pakistan is a jihad central and a terror factory.
- Pakistan sustained the Taliban and sheltered Osama Bin Laden in Abbottabad.
- It is believed that Bin Laden’s successor Ayman al-Zawahiri lives under Pakistani protection.
- Pakistan also sheltered 9/11 mastermind, Khalid Shaikh Muhammad, before his 2003 capture.
- Several Taliban and Al Qaeda leaders (including Mullah Akhtar Mansour) were killed inside Pakistan by US drone strikes.
- Pakistan also hosts Lashkar-e-Taiba, another terror group.
- The majority of Taliban car bombs and improvised explosive devices (IEDs) use precursor chemicals that come from two fertilizer plants in Pakistan.
Pakistan: Taking Advantage
Pakistan’s current behaviour is not the exception, but rather the rule.
Pakistani authorities have long distrusted the United States, back stabbing them often.
Biggest paradox is that Pakistan takes US military training and gains access to US equipment but embraces China.
China not only supports Pakistan diplomatically and economically but also trains and equips the ISI and the Pakistani military.
Change Required in US Attitude towards Pakistan
So far USA and its allies has been engaging Pakistan with the belief – to compel it with carrots rather than stick.
This approach has not yielded the desired result. On the contrary, Pakistan has been emboldened to support terrorism with impunity.
Change in attitude and approach is required. Possible actions could include:-
- Stop considering Pakistan as a major-non NATO ally in the fight against terrorism.
- Expose Pakistan’s duplicity.
- Make Pakistan responsible for its actions. Increase the cost of supporting terrorism.
- Stop Military and economic aid and support.
- Put Pakistan to the Financial Action Task Force (FATF) black list.
- Stop sale of military and dual-use technology to Pakistan.
- Stoppage of loans for Pakistan from the International Monetary Fund, World Bank, and Asian Development Bank.
- More drastic actions if the situation so demands.
Caution
While taking these punitive actions caution needs to be exercised that the stability level of Pakistan does not fall below a critical level.
Question
What do you feel about this issue?
Suggestions and value additions are most welcome
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Absolutely. India’s approach has been best “Developmental Diplomacy”, Direct returns to Afghans. No meddling in local politics. In the long run, this is what endears and pays.
Fully agree with you sir.
Dear Anil, very well analysed. US has been fully aware of Pak’s double standards for a very long time. Yet, what restrained them from taking action was the logistic compulsion of maintenance and sustenance of the military ops in Af. Uncorroborated information received during my tenure in the Middle East, points to a larger nexus of financial gains, pay outs and favours to US Legislators, key representatives incl military officials through a well oiled conduit pie of the ISI. Biden’s action was to put an end to the pseudo war perpetrated by arm lobbyists ,politicians and civilian contractors at the expense innocent Afghan lives. The chord is not going to be snapped so soon unless strong financial and diplomatic actions are now initiated against Pakistan. This will not be an easy affair considering the strong nexus between vested interest in US and Pakistan.
Thanks for the inputs.
It will be wait and watch for some time.