814: RUSSIA’S RS-28 SARMAT ADDS A NEW CHAPTER IN STRATEGIC NUCLEAR MODERNISATION

 

News. Russia successfully test-launched the RS-28 Sarmat intercontinental ballistic missile from the Plesetsk Cosmodrome (Arkhangelsk region) on 12 May 26. The missile followed its planned profile and struck its designated target (at Kura test range on the Kamchatka Peninsula) approximately thirty minutes after launch. Strategic Missile Forces commander Sergei Karakayev reported that all specified technical characteristics had been validated. Putin described the test as a “major event and unconditional success” and congratulated the defence ministry, scientists, engineers, and the thousands of workers whose collaborative effort brought the programme to this milestone.

 

Missile. The Makeyev Rocket Design Bureau produces the RS-28 Sarmat. It is a silo-launched, three-stage, liquid-fuelled super-heavy ICBM (35.3 metres in length and approximately 208 tonnes in launch weight). It is claimed to be the largest ballistic missile ever constructed. Its payload capacity is ten tonnes, and it can carry a variety of warheads (including multiple independently targetable re-entry vehicles (MIRVs) and, reportedly, the Avangard hypersonic glide vehicle. Its operational flexibility significantly exceeds that of its predecessor.

 

 

Capability. Among the Sarmat’s most strategically significant attributes is its capacity to approach targets via non-standard flight trajectories. Unlike conventional ICBMs that follow northern polar arcs, the Sarmat is capable of fractional orbital bombardment, i.e. flying a depressed, sub-orbital trajectory over the South Pole to reach targets in North America. This gives it the ability to approach from directions that existing American missile defence interceptor networks, positioned primarily in Alaska and California and oriented toward northern approach corridors, are not designed to engage. Putin has noted that the missile can travel on both ballistic and suborbital trajectories, with a maximum range reportedly exceeding 35,000 kilometres.

 

Feature Enhancement. The missile has a shorter boost phase than its predecessor. This reduces the window for tracking by the space-based infrared sensors. It is a meaningful enhancement for the missile’s survivability. The Sarmat is also claimed to be more accurate than the Voyevoda. Putin has stated that the Sarmat’s destructive potential substantially exceeds that of any comparable Western system.

 

Strategic Implication. The successful launch carries significant strategic implications. The R-36M2 Voyevoda, a Soviet-era heavy ICBM, had been the backbone of Russia’s silo-based deterrent for decades.  The Sarmat is intended to replace it, and it represents the most consequential upgrade to Russia’s nuclear triad in the post-Cold War period. Putin announced that Russia would deploy the first Sarmat-equipped regiment for combat duty before the end of 2026. It is claimed to be designed to penetrate both existing and prospective ballistic missile defences. This capability is important for Russia to maintain credible second-strike deterrence.

 

Race. The Sarmat is one of six next-generation strategic weapons that Putin unveiled in March 2018, presenting them as Russia’s response to the United States’ withdrawal from the Anti-Ballistic Missile Treaty in 2001 and the subsequent development of American missile defence infrastructure. From Moscow’s perspective, a credible and penetrating nuclear second-strike capability is the foundation of strategic stability. The assurance that no adversary can neutralise Russia’s deterrent through a disarming first strike and expect to intercept the surviving response. The Sarmat is engineered specifically to preserve that assurance against all foreseeable developments in missile defence technology.

 

Timing. The test comes at a time of considerable significance in the current global landscape. The New START treaty (the last remaining bilateral nuclear arms limitation agreement between Russia and the United States) expired in February 2026. Russia suspended its participation in New START in February 2023, citing what it described as the fundamentally changed strategic environment resulting from Western military support for Ukraine. The absence of any active treaty framework means that both sides are now free to expand and modernise their arsenals without the notification and inspection.  The Sarmat’s development and operational deployment will proceed in this unconstrained environment.

 

Domestic Significance. Domestically, the test carries political weight as well as military significance. It arrives days after Russia’s Victory Day commemorations. It demonstrates the continued vitality of Russia’s defence industrial and scientific base under sustained international sanctions and economic pressure. It affirms the country’s standing as a nuclear superpower capable of fielding world-leading weapons systems.

 

Global Interest. Internationally, the Sarmat’s deployment will be watched closely in capitals around the world (from Washington to Beijing and from New Delhi to Brussels). For NATO’s strategic planners, it represents a genuine generational upgrade to Russia’s land-based deterrent. It will force them to recalibrate their threat assessments and defence postures. For countries in the Global South, it is a reminder that the nuclear dimension of great-power competition remains very much alive and is, if anything, intensifying.

 

Concluding Thought. Russia’s strategic modernisation programme has always been driven by the conviction that a strong nuclear deterrent is the ultimate guarantor of national sovereignty and strategic autonomy. The Sarmat’s successful test and approaching operational debut confirm that this conviction remains the organising principle of Russian defence policy. It also proves that Russia retains both the industrial capacity and the scientific expertise to give it material form.

 

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805: REIGNITED DEBATE: FIGHTER JETS VS. LONG-RANGE VECTORS AND DRONES

 

The Russian-Ukrainian war and the US-Israel-Iran War have reignited the debate about the cost-benefit analysis of fighter jets vis-à-vis long-range vectors and drones. Some analysts feel that the fighter aircraft have become obsolete.

 

The Cost-Benefit Reality

The approximate cost of various air platforms and weapon systems is as follows: –

    • A modern aircraft would cost anywhere between 100 and 120 million dollars.
    • A loitering munition would cost approximately 20,000–50,000 dollars.
    • A cruise missile would cost around 2 million dollars.

On a per-unit cost basis, the cost asymmetry among fighter aircraft, loitering munitions, and cruise missiles is stark. However, the cost-benefit analysis in warfare is not purely a function of unit cost. It depends on the effect achieved (Bang for Buck). It is measured across the full mission profile, including survivability, reusability, flexibility, and escalation management.

Fighter jets are reusable. A modern fighter that completes a strike mission and returns to base amortises its $100 million price tag across every sortie it flies over a 30-year service life. A cruise missile or kamikaze drone is single-use. When you factor in sortie economics across a full operational life, the per-strike cost of a modern multi-role fighter often competes favourably with standoff missiles for missions that don’t require deep penetration of layered air defences.

The greater cost-benefit advantage of long-range vectors and drones lies in scenarios with high attrition risk. This is the genuine strategic logic behind standoff weapons. It is not that they are cheaper in absolute terms, but that they preserve the most expensive and irreplaceable asset in the equation, i.e. the trained pilot. It takes a decade and an enormous investment to produce a combat-ready fighter pilot. A cruise missile battery can be replenished within months if the industrial base is functioning.

Drones depend on datalinks, GPS navigation, and communications.  In a sophisticated EW environment, these dependencies become vulnerabilities. Fighter jets, on the other hand, with onboard avionics, EW self-protection suites, and pilot judgment, prove to be more robust.

 

Obsolescence / Relevance Deliberation

The short answer is that the recent wars have not signalled the obsolescence of fighter aircraft. However, they have issued a clear warning about the utilisation pattern.

The Ukraine conflict has demonstrated that surface-launched systems can achieve kill rates against aircraft. It makes conventional air operations near the front line prohibitively expensive. The aircraft do not become irrelevant, but they are forced to operate at the outer edge of the threat envelope. They serve as a standoff launch platform.

The drone utilisation in the war in Ukraine is revolutionary. Cheap FPV drones could destroy air and ground platforms worth millions. They could disrupt logistics and even impose psychological costs.

The US-Israel-Iran exchanges offer a different set of lessons.  This is the cost-benefit problem in reverse: defending against mass drone and missile attacks with expensive interceptors is fiscally unsustainable in repeated exchanges.

The broader conclusion these conflicts bring out is that fighter jets have not become obsolete. However, their employment methodology has evolved. They are not the sole instrument of the kill chain of air combat.

 

Noteworthy Changes to be Adapted

Three things have genuinely changed, and air forces need to absorb them.

    • First, forward basing of high-value aircraft is more dangerous than ever. The logic of static forward basing is being superseded by the demands of survivability, dispersal, and mobility.
    • Second, electronic warfare and EW resilience are now as important as kinetic capability. Investment in the electromagnetic dimension of air combat is no longer optional.
    • Third, the cost-comparison (between incoming projectiles and defence weapons) problem is real and demands a structural response. The answer is to develop a layered response that places cheap effectors against cheap threats and reserves expensive ones for high-value targets.

 

Fighter jets remain the most flexible, survivable, and capable instruments of air power available for high-end contested environments.

Fighter jets are the most capable instruments of air power. However, no single platform or vector can win the modern air war. The answer lies in integrating manned fighters, Long-range standoff weapons, drones, and layered air defences into a coherent operational architecture.

The air forces that will prevail in future conflicts are not those with the most aircraft, nor those that have replaced aircraft with drones. The ones that will prevail are the ones that have integrated the full spectrum of air power tools under a doctrine sophisticated enough to deploy them appropriately.

 

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802: AIR WARFARE IN THE 2026 IRAN WAR (ANALYTICAL SUMMARY WITH LESSONS)

 

(Facts and figures are from open sources. These could have been inflated or repressed as part of the propaganda/Information warfare. A clearer picture would emerge with the passage of time)

 

900 strikes in 12 hours. Supreme Leader eliminated on Day 1. 15,000 targets struck by Day 14. Six weeks and Iran is still fighting.

Tactical dominance does not mean a strategic outcome.

 

The Opening Salvo

  • US and Israel launched (on 28 Feb) the most intensive air campaign since Iraq 2003.
  • Israel flew about 200 fighters, including F-35I Adirs. The IAF’s largest combat sortie in history.
  • US committed B-2 Spirits, B-1Bs, B-52s, carrier aircraft, F-15Es, and hundreds of Tomahawks.
  • Approximately 200 Iranian air defence systems were struck in the opening hours. Air control over western Iran to central Tehran was established within 24 hours.
  • John Warden’s five-ring model was applied in planning and execution.
  • Theory was sound, Execution was technically flawless, but the strategic outcomes did not match the expectations.

Air power can destroy (punish). It cannot always compel.

 

Coalition Air Campaign

The scale was extraordinary. 60% of mission-capable B-1s flew from RAF Fairford. Two carriers operated in the theatre. Some relevant aspects for consideration are: –

  • Munitions Scalability. After Day 10, JDAM-class munitions were used instead of the standoff weapons. Precision munitions deplete faster than assumed during planning. Numbers matter as much as quality. Ukraine taught the lesson, and Iran has confirmed it.  Indigenous production capacity must match operational tempo.
  • Basing Vulnerability. Iran struck Prince Sultan Air Base — destroying an E-3G AWACS and multiple KC-135 tankers. Forward bases are lucrative targets. Depth, dispersion, and resilience are important. (The Indian Air Force’s own 2022 dispersal doctrine has been validated — in someone else’s war).
  • Losses. Reportedly, 4 F-15Es were lost (3 in a friendly fire incident, a coalition coordination). 1 F-35A damaged. 1 A-10C shot down. 17 MQ-9s downed by Iranian air defences. Poorly integrated air defence networks with limited combat experience cost lives.
  • Inter-service jointness failures are not unique to any one military. Jointness failures are doctrinal and training failures, not technical ones.

The F-35 being tracked is the campaign’s most significant disclosure. Stealth does not mean invisibility. The margin is further narrowing as detection technology proliferates. Air warfare is gradually shifting from platform-centric to weapon-centric. Any air plan built around the stealthy penetration capability of new-generation platforms requires reassessment.

 

Iran’s IADS

  • Iran’s IADS is a hybrid, layered network. It consists of the S-300 (long-range), Bavar-373, Khordad-15 (medium-range), and point-defence platforms (short-range).
  • Three traits made it resilient. layered architecture, mobility, and redundancy.

 

Air superiority is not binary in nature; there are shades. It exists on a spectrum. The prevailing conditions across the spectrum determine the operational options. An honest assessment of that position is vital for planners.

 

Mosaic Defence (Reason for Decapitation Failure)

The strategic shock was not that Iran’s air defences survived. It was that Iran’s will and capacity to fight survived the killing of its supreme leader.

  • Mosaic Defence was formalised under Gen Mohammad Jafari in 2005. It was stress-tested for the first time.
  • IRGC restructured into 31 autonomous provincial commands. Each with independent weapons, intelligence, and command systems.
  •  Successors were already named three ranks deep for every position. Decapitation activated resilience mechanisms specifically engineered for exactly this contingency.
  • Iran’s Foreign Minister stated it directly on 1 Mar: “Bombings in our capital have no impact on our ability to conduct war. Decentralised Mosaic Defence enables us to decide when and how war will end.”

China’s systems destruction warfare operates on precisely the same logic. It has designed its offensive capability to execute decapitation (at numerous levels). For India, planning against both adversaries simultaneously makes this aspect the defining operational challenge.

 

Iran’s Air Campaign (Asymmetry Counter Air)

  • Iran’s conventional air force could not survive in contested airspace. Most were destroyed on the ground.
  • Ballistic missiles and Shahed-style drones ensured strategic achievement. Multi-speed attacks, i.e., slow drones first to saturate the radar network, followed by ballistic missiles.
  • Coalition claimed an interception rate of 80–90% by networked Patriot, THAAD, Arrow, and Aegis.
  • The ballistic missile launches declined by approximately 90% by mid-March. But drone attacks persisted.  Drones can be manufactured in civilian facilities from commercially available components faster than they can be expended or suppressed. Quantity is a quality of its own.
  • The exchange economics: –
  • Shahed drone: Approx cost $20,000,
  • Patriot interceptor: $4 million
  • Arrow 3 interceptor: significantly more
  • Exchange ratio: decisively favourable to the attacker
  • It reiterates the need for destroying the launch capability besides neutralising the incoming projectiles.

This is the democratisation of warfare made operational. It is an era of low-cost systems as the primary weapons of air warfare. The drone swarms and loitering munitions in adequate numbers are a must. Counter-drone capabilities that do not rely on expensive interceptors as the primary response are equally urgent. Project Kusha points in the right direction. The counter-drone dimension needs equivalent investment.

 

Strait Of Hormuz

  • 20% of the world’s oil passes through the Strait. Closure is creating a global energy crisis.
  • Iran is still dominating the Strait despite the destruction of its Navy. Thousands of airstrikes on Iranian territory have not reopened 20 miles of water.
  • Geographic chokepoints confer an asymmetric defensive advantage.

India’s energy security depends substantially on hydrocarbons from the Gulf. Closure of the Strait has direct and severe economic consequences for India. It is a wake-up call. Energy security requires a holistic review (sources, supply routes, alternative energy, and indigenous capabilities).

 

Some Tactical Aspects

  • In all the contemporary air campaigns, non-kinetic offensive action has preceded the kinetic attacks.  The cyber and EW warfare offensives create chaos by disabling enemy sensors and C2 centres.
  • AI-driven battle management systems enable coordination among multiple stakeholders at speeds beyond human-led cycles.
  • ISR dominance (SIGINT, HUMINT, real-time intelligence) is the key to an effective air campaign.
  • Underground and Hardened Assets are essential for survival. Iran stored its missiles in dispersed underground storage facilities. The tunnel entrances to these storage facilities can be targeted, but deeply buried assets remain safe.

 

What the Campaign Could Achieve: –

  • Destruction of Infrastructure on a large scale.
  • Suppression of conventional IADS.
  • Elimination of Leadership with precision.
  • Establishment and holding of Air superiority.

What the Campaign Couldn’t Achieve: –

  • Translation of dominance into collapse (Regime change).
  • Complete elimination of dispersed, mobile, production-capable war-fighting capabilities.
  • Reopening of a maritime chokepoint.
  • Forcing a political outcome against a prepared adversary

 

The Bottom Line

 

Iran apparently spent 20 years studying American air power and designing a system specifically to absorb its most devastating application.

India must study this campaign (along with other contemporary ones) with rigour.

The lessons are glaring. Institutional will is required to learn and implement them rather than relearning the hard way.

 

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