Cyber – Air Marshal's Perspective

September 11, 2026September 10, 2026

852:INDIA’S AIR POWER AMID RISING GEOPOLITICAL CHALLENGES

Article published in the Sep 26 edition of the “Blue Print” Magazine

Air power has become a crucial instrument of national security. Possessing credible, technologically advanced air power is no longer a luxury but a strategic imperative. India occupies a unique geopolitical position. It shares borders with two nuclear-armed neighbours. Both of whom present distinct and collusive security challenges. The increasing militarisation of the Indo-Pacific region is further altering India’s security calculus. Newer technologies such as unmanned aerial systems (UAS), hypersonic missiles, cyber warfare, artificial intelligence, and space-based military capabilities have expanded the dimensions of aerial warfare.

Air power is essential to India’s security. As geopolitical tensions grow and military technology advances, India’s aerial capabilities will become a vital means of deterrence, power projection, and safeguarding national security. The extent to which the country modernises and integrates its aerial forces will significantly affect its ability to cope with the complicated geopolitical situation of the coming decades.

The Strategic Importance of Air Power. Air power constitutes a highly adaptable and lethal instrument of statecraft. It is characterised by its extensive reach, swift responsiveness, and ability to impose shock and influence through precise, non-contact means of applying force. Its effects can be activated or deactivated more easily than other instruments of national power. Although it provides a broad array of offensive capabilities, its utility extends beyond mere offensive operations. It also plays a vital role in deterrence, strategic positioning, and coercion, whether in wartime or peacetime. Unlike ground forces, air power can be deployed over great distances in just a short time and is therefore essential in times of crisis. In natural disasters, air power can provide rapid humanitarian assistance. It supports both military security and national resilience.

Geopolitical Challenges and Emerging Threats

India’s air power today sits at the centre of a far more complex security environment than at any point in the past two decades. The challenge is not only the classic two-front problem with China and Pakistan, but also the need to modernise fast enough to preserve deterrence. At the same time, air warfare is being transformed by drones, missiles, cyber, space, and networked targeting.

The China Challenge. China is India’s most significant long-term strategic challenge. The military standoff in eastern Ladakh since 2020 demonstrated that border tensions can escalate rapidly and require sustained military preparedness. The People’s Liberation Army Air Force (PLAAF) has undergone extensive modernisation over the past two decades. China has also developed extensive military infrastructure in Tibet and Xinjiang. These include upgraded airbases, hardened aircraft shelters, extended runways, and logistics facilities that can support sustained air operations near the Indian border.

Pakistan and the Persistent Security Challenge. Pakistan relies on non-state actors funded and trained on its own soil to keep India in a state of unrest through disinformation, incitement and terrorism. It remains a security threat across the nuclear, conventional and sub-conventional dimensions simultaneously. The 2019 Balakot air strike and the recent Op Sindoor highlighted the growing role of air power in India’s strategy of punitive deterrence. India’s ability to conduct precision strikes deep inside hostile territory demonstrated a willingness to employ air power. However, the subsequent aerial engagement also emphasised the importance of superior situational awareness, electronic warfare, and beyond-visual-range combat capabilities.

The Rise of Drones and Autonomous Warfare. The rise of autonomous drones is one of the most significant developments in contemporary air warfare. Drones have moved from mere surveillance vehicles to versatile weapons. They can deliver precise strikes, conduct electronic warfare, and carry out reconnaissance and intelligence collection. In recent conflicts, it has been shown that relatively cheap drones can cause disproportionate damage to advanced military equipment. Swarm drone technology in particular poses considerable challenges for traditional air defence systems because it is hard to track and destroy multiple low-cost aerial targets at the same time. India is now encountering increasing drone-related threats on both its western and northern borders, and reports of drone-enabled smuggling, surveillance, and cross-border infiltration highlight the importance of having strong counter-drone capabilities.

Cyber Warfare and Electronic Warfare. Air operations now rely heavily on secure communication networks, satellite navigation, and data links. As aerial warfare platforms become more interconnected, they also become more susceptible to cyberattacks and electronic interference. Enemies could disrupt air operations by attacking communication systems, navigation networks, or mission-critical software. Electronic warfare can greatly reduce the effectiveness of the most advanced aircraft. Protection of digital infrastructure has become as important as protecting airbases. India must invest in secure communications, encrypted data links, and cyber defence capabilities.

Space as a Strategic Domain. Space has emerged as a critical component of air power. The term airpower has evolved into aerospace power, with the aerial warfare envelope expanding into the space domain. Space-based systems and applications are embedded in every aspect of aerial warfare. They are providing capabilities including navigation, targeting, communication, early warning of missile launches, and space-based surveillance. The integration of space-based systems with air assets is expected to increase further. This will create opportunities for both offensive and defensive operations. However, increasing dependence on satellite-based systems also creates vulnerabilities. Anti-satellite warfare spans kinetic weapons such as missiles as well as non-kinetic systems including jammers, laser dazzlers and spoofing equipment. Denial of space-based systems directly affects air warfare.

The Indo-Pacific and Maritime Air Power. India’s strategic interests extend beyond its borders. The Indo-Pacific area is now the centre of global economic activity and strategic competition. It is seeing rising naval deployments, disputes over maritime routes, and a growing number of military cooperation agreements. Air power plays a vital role in protecting maritime interests by enabling long-range surveillance, conducting anti-submarine warfare, conducting maritime reconnaissance, and allowing rapid force deployment. The ability to monitor key sea lanes, respond effectively to humanitarian crises, and support naval operations confirms India’s status as a major security provider in the Indian Ocean Region.

Strengthening India’s Air Power

India’s military aspirations must align with its socioeconomic condition and likely threats. The path forward for India is clear: it must enhance its deterrence capability while investing in future war-fighting technologies. With its significant offensive potential and responsiveness, air power is the most crucial arm of military action. As the nature of warfare evolves, India’s approach to air power must keep pace. The future lies in building an integrated, technology-driven, and self-reliant aerospace ecosystem that can address conventional, asymmetric, and multidomain threats. Sustained investment in modernisation, indigenous innovation, joint military operations, and human capital will be essential for maintaining India’s strategic advantage.

Capability and Capacity Balance for Credible Deterrence. Warfighting capability and the capacity to sustain operations are both essential, combining quality and quantity. While India’s air power capabilities (in terms of reach, high-altitude operations, precision, standoff, and all-weather performance) have advanced significantly, it must also increase the numerical strength of fighter aircraft, combat enablers, long-range vectors, and drones. One of the Indian Air Force’s foremost priorities is to restore its fighter squadron strength. Bridging this gap requires the timely induction of new-generation aircraft (fighters and combat support aircraft), while ensuring modernisation plans are financially sustainable.

Enhancing Indigenous Defence Manufacturing. Self-reliance has become a strategic necessity. Relying on imported defence equipment creates vulnerabilities. India should develop its own technological abilities and increase its defence manufacturing capacity. It will reduce dependence on foreign suppliers. Indigenous development of radars, electronic warfare systems, missiles, drones, and aircraft components will strengthen India’s technological base, create jobs, and boost exports. As part of the Atmanirbhar Bharat effort in defence manufacturing, the aim is to enhance self-reliance by encouraging the domestic production of these systems. The initiative has sped up domestic defence production by involving more public sector enterprises, private industries, start-ups, and research institutions. The Defence Research and Development Organisation (DRDO), Hindustan Aeronautics Limited (HAL), academic institutions, and the private sector must work together to shorten development timelines and promote innovation.

Embracing Emerging Technologies. The adoption of emerging technologies. Technological advances are further reshaping the nature of air warfare. Precision-guided munitions, stealth technology, network-centric operations, satellite-enabled communications, artificial intelligence, and autonomous drones are all altering the battlefield. Autonomous drones and the idea of loyal wingmen are expected to transform aerial combat. India should also make investments in directed-energy weapons, advanced electronic warfare capabilities, and cyber-resilient command-and-control networks. These technologies can greatly increase operational effectiveness while reducing personnel risk. Air power assets depend heavily on technology. Turning technology into capability takes a long time. To stay ahead of the challenges, we need to invest in emerging technologies and think through their use in warfare. Impetus is also required for existing aviation-related programs such as fifth-generation fighters, Transport aircraft (for civil and military requirements), Development of gas turbines and engines, sensors and seekers, stealth, metallurgy and composites, unmanned platforms and swarms, AI-enabled autonomous systems, and long-range vectors.

Airpower Utilisation in Grey Zone Scenario. Grey zone operations occur in a contested arena between routine statecraft and open warfare. These are becoming a norm in modern-day warfare. Both of India’s adversaries resort to these operations regularly. Airpower can reinforce the nation’s course of action against grey zone warfare, with involvement in several direct and supporting roles. Besides offensive use, it can also be effectively utilised in many ways in non-conventional hostile situations categorised above. Applying airpower in these grey zone situations requires some reorientation, supported by capability enhancement in certain fields.

Conclusion

India’s air Power is at a crucial stage. Competing regional interests, technological progress, and changes in warfare have increased the strategic value of air power. As India faces challenges from both China and Pakistan and the Indo-Pacific region grows more important, it needs constant modernisation and strategic adjustment. India can ensure its air power remains capable of protecting its national interests in this increasingly uncertain and contested geopolitical environment by promoting innovation, supporting domestic research, and adopting multidomain warfare.

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Information and data included in the blog are for educational & non-commercial purposes only and have been carefully adapted, excerpted, or edited from reliable and accurate sources. All copyrighted material belongs to the respective owners and is provided only for wider dissemination.

References: –

Fontanellaz A, “Operation Sindoor: The India-Pakistan air war”, Centre d’Histoire et de Prospective Militaires (2026).

Jane’s, “Feature: China accelerates air combat modernisation”, Janes.com (2025, November 19).

Jha M K, “IAF – Target “42 squadron”, SP’s Aviation, (9), (2025).

Khosla A, “Future conflict scenarios: Implications for IAF (Part 1)”, Air Marshal’s Perspective, (2021, March 15).

Khosla, A. (2021, July 26). Airpower in the grey zone. USI Journal; reproduced on Air Marshal’s Perspective.

Khosla, A. “Aero India 2025 and key solutions for IAF’s challenges”, SP’s Aviation; reproduced on Air Marshal’s Perspective (2025, February 11).

Khosla, A. (2025, February). Future trends of fighter aircraft—SP Aviation Yearbook; reproduced on Air Marshal’s Perspective.

Ministry of Defence, Government of India. (2025, February). Make in India powers defence growth [Press release]. Press Information Bureau.

September 9, 2026September 8, 2026

849: ENGINEERING TRUST IN THE DIGITAL AEROSPACE ERA

Shared my views on the subject at the DSCI Summit

on 09 Sep 26

Aerospace is undergoing the deepest transformation since the shift from piston to jet propulsion, except that this one is digital rather than mechanical. Aerospace systems are becoming software-defined, networked, and AI-enabled.

Flight control laws, mission systems, maintenance procedures, and command networks are increasingly mediated by software, sensors, and, increasingly, machine learning models. These models can make decisions or influence them at a speed no human operator can independently verify in real time.

In an era where aerospace systems are defined as much by lines of code as by laws of aerodynamics. A compromise of software, data or communications can have consequences comparable to physical damage. In this environment, the “Engineering Trust” is taking on a new connotation.

Transformation of the Definition of “Engineering Trust”.

Engineering trust means designing, testing, and building systems so predictably safe and transparent that humans and regulators can rely on them without hesitation. The digital aerospace era has transformed the scope of “engineering trust”. Beyond the stated definition, it now also includes “having complete confidence that digital tools, data networks, and artificial intelligence (AI) systems are safe, secure, and fully verified”.

Trust must therefore extend from the physical platform to code, data, identity, networks, AI and the supply chain. It is no longer merely a peripheral technical concern. Engineering trust has become a central focus. Engineering digital trust requires validating each link, including hardware, flight software, network communications, and operational execution. It must be demonstrated, verified, and maintained throughout the system lifecycle.

The challenges relate to both the software code and the Data.

- Code-related matters emphasise the importance of trust, Verification, authentic updates, and isolating compromised software to enhance resilience.

- Data-related matters include data poisoning, Model manipulation, Adversarial inputs, AI Hallucination, unreliable outputs, and supply-chain digital compromises.

Core Pillars of Digital Aerospace Trust

Safety, Reliability, and Airworthiness. Safety, reliability, and airworthiness require that digital systems (such as flight controls, mission systems, avionics, MRO platforms, and autonomous functions) act predictably in normal, failed, and off-nominal situations without compromising platform or mission safety.

Cybersecurity and Cyber Resilience. The term cybersecurity, with an expanding scope, has been transformed into “digital mission assurance”. Aircraft, satellites, ground systems, and supporting infrastructure must be protected against cyber threats. Protective systems must prevent, detect, contain, withstand, and recover from attacks. This protection is required across the product lifecycle and supply chain.

Software Assurance and Verification. The development, verification, and certification of flight-critical software must be thorough and should follow the certification procedures adopted by aviation regulatory bodies such as the FAA and EASA. Formal methods and mathematical verification can complement testing and provide greater assurance of correctness, especially for functions that require a high level of assurance. Assurance must also extend to software updates, digital twins, and the growing number of adaptive systems.

Data Integrity and Sovereignty. Ensuring data integrity and sovereignty means that navigation, telemetry, sensor, maintenance, and operational data must be accurate, genuine, and readily available. It must also be protected against manipulation or spoofing. Solid data pipelines, anti-spoofing methods, and sensor integration (for example, combining GNSS, INS, and optical tracking) can increase resilience. Regarding data sovereignty, it is also necessary to control where the data is stored, who can access it, and which legal or regulatory system applies, especially for multinational and classified programs.

AI Trustworthiness and Bounded Autonomy. AI/ML is used in predictive maintenance, decision support, pilot assistance, and autonomous systems. In these cases, evidence of robustness, transparency, accountability, and suitable human oversight is required. Autonomous features must operate within clearly defined and verifiable safety limits; deterministic safety mechanisms or “wrappers” (protective software boundaries or guardrails that surround an adaptive AI algorithm to restrict its behaviour and ensure safety) should keep adaptive algorithms within their certified operational envelopes.

Human–Machine Trust. The trust humans place in automation requires that pilots, engineers, and operators have enough insight into the system’s status, limitations, uncertainty, and decision-making logic to know when to rely on the automation and when to intervene or take over.

Supply-Chain and Firmware Integrity. Trust must extend throughout the entire manufacturing process, from component sourcing to software development, integration, deployment, and maintenance.

Continuous Lifecycle Assurance. Trust cannot be established once and then assumed; it must be maintained through configuration control, monitoring, vulnerability management, software updates, supplier changes, operational data, and evidence provided throughout the entire system lifecycle.

Policy Framework for Engineering Trust in the Digital Era

Appropriate measures are required to ensure that India’s digital ecosystem for the aerospace and defence sector is secure, sovereign, traceable, certifiable and internationally trusted. The framework should contribute to national security, speed up the adoption of digital engineering and AI, improve supply chain resilience, support certification and exports, and, at the same time, increase confidence in India’s expanding indigenous aerospace and defence industrial base.

Make Digital Engineering Safe and Trustworthy. Set up a reliable digital engineering framework for the aerospace and defence sectors to guarantee the safety, reliability, security, and integrity of digital models, software, hardware, and digital twins. Adopt internationally recognised aerospace standards where appropriate and create end-to-end digital traceability covering the entire process from requirements, through design, implementation, verification, to certification. At the same time, maximise the automation of verification and testing and incorporate cybersecurity throughout the entire engineering lifecycle.

Protect Manufacturing and MRO from Cyber Attacks. Build robust and cyber-secure manufacturing, maintenance, repair and overhaul (MRO), testing, and operating environments using zero-trust principles. Ensure strong identity management, multi-factor authentication, least-privilege access, network segmentation, continuous monitoring, and strict third-party controls are in place. Cybersecurity requirements must cover the entire supply chain, including measures to ensure production and maintenance can continue during a cyber incident.

Make AI Safe and Trustworthy. We should establish a governance and assurance framework so that AI may be safely introduced into the aviation and defence sectors. Clear boundaries must be set regarding the level of autonomy of AI, and there must be adequate human supervision for any decisions which are of safety or mission importance. AI systems must be thoroughly tested under normal, abnormal, and failure conditions, monitored throughout their operational life, and supported by appropriate measures for accountability, data provenance, transparency, security, and auditability.

Create Digital Traceability for Parts and Products. Set up a complete digital traceability system for important aerospace and defence parts and components. Give each item a unique digital identity and keep reliable records relating to its origin, certification, configuration, inspections, repairs, modifications, and full lifecycle history. Apply tamper-evident technologies and digital product passports, as appropriate, in order to enhance authenticity, prevent the use of counterfeit components, and meet regulatory and customer assurance requirements.

Control Sensitive Data and use the Sovereign Cloud. Establish a national framework which covers the classification, protection, storage, processing, and controlled sharing of sensitive, classified, proprietary and export-controlled information. Sensitive aerospace and defence data should remain under the proper control of the nation and the organisation. For important programmes, use sovereign or controlled cloud environments, while allowing secure international cooperation without jeopardising sensitive data or intellectual property.

Develop Certifiable Digital Engineering Capability. Build national and industrial capabilities in the areas of model-based engineering, model-based systems engineering, and digital twins. Ensure digital engineering practices conform to international aerospace standards and automate verification where possible. Create definitive digital evidence to support airworthiness certification, obtain regulatory approval, and gain international customer acceptance.

Set up a Zero-Trust Defence Industrial Base. Introduce a zero-trust approach to cybersecurity in all defence organisations and within their industry ecosystem. Protect critical networks and systems by implementing robust identity management, using multi-factor authentication, applying segmentation, applying the principle of least privilege, and maintaining continuous monitoring. Make cybersecurity assurance a fundamental requirement of defence procurement and supplier management, backed by a common framework for managing cyber risk across the defence industrial base.

Develop sovereign AI and Cloud Capabilities. Create sovereign AI and cloud infrastructure for sensitive aerospace and defence applications, ensuring the nation maintains control over critical data, models, infrastructure, and intellectual property. Develop secure AI capabilities for areas including UAVs, predictive maintenance, mission support, simulation, and other defence applications, while allowing controlled collaboration with international partners.

Establish Governance for AI in Safety-Critical Systems. A governance protocol is required for using AI in safety-critical systems. It should contain clearly defined sector-specific rules. It should also include requirements for human supervision, intervention, testing, monitoring, accountability, and assurance throughout the system lifecycle. The governance framework must align with established principles of trustworthy AI, including safety, security, transparency, privacy, fairness, robustness, and accountability.

Concluding Thoughts

A digital platform, network, or system that you do not trust should not be considered a capability but rather a liability. The principle in question—that trust is essential—has not changed with digitalisation; in fact, digitalisation has made it harder and more urgent to engineer trust.

Trust in the digital aerospace era should not be treated as a secondary issue or as a compliance item to be dealt with after the project has been completed; instead, it must be built into the system from the very first line of code, the very first component, and the very first hour of operator training. It must be maintained throughout the system’s entire lifecycle.

Engineering trust in the digital era is therefore not merely about aerospace system reliability. It is about ensuring that their safety and security are continuously demonstrable, auditable, and verifiable.

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References: –

SAE International. “Guidelines for development of civil aircraft and systems”, SAE Aerospace Recommended Practices ARP4754B, 2023.

International Civil Aviation Organisation. “Cybersecurity action plan”, 2022.

Rose, S., Borchert, O., Mitchell, S., & Connelly, S., “Zero trust architecture”. Special Publication 800-207, National Institute of Standards and Technology, 2020.

Boyens, J., Smith, A., Bartol, N., Winkler, K., Holbrook, A., & Fallon, M. “Cybersecurity supply chain risk management practices for systems and organisations”. Special Publication 800-161 Rev. 1, Update 1, National Institute of Standards and Technology, 2024.

National Institute of Standards and Technology. “Secure software development practices for generative AI and dual-use foundation models”, NIST AI 600-1, supplementary guidance, 2024.

Tabassi, E., “Artificial intelligence risk management framework (AI RMF 1.0)” (NIST AI 100-1), National Institute of Standards and Technology, 2023.

Autio, C., Schwartz, R., Dunietz, J., Jain, S., Stanley, M., Tabassi, E., Hall, P., & Roberts, K., “Artificial intelligence risk management framework: Generative artificial intelligence profile”, NIST AI 600-1, National Institute of Standards and Technology, 2024.

Lee, J. D., & See, K. A. “Trust in automation: Designing for appropriate reliance”, Human Factors, 46 (1), 50–80, 2004.

Indian Computer Emergency Response Team. “Blueprint for reducing exposure and defending against AI-assisted vulnerabilities exploitation in digital infrastructure”, 2026.

Ministry of Defence, Government of India. *Security manual for licensed defence industries, 2025.

September 4, 2026

847: DETERRENCE IN THE AUTONOMOUS WARFARE SCENARIO

Article published in the Sep 26 edition of “News Analytics” magazine

The character of warfare evolves alongside technological innovation. Today, another transformative revolution is reshaping global security. The integration of artificial intelligence (AI), autonomous weapons systems, and human-machine teaming into military operations is underway.

Deterrence has traditionally depended on a human adversary believing that the costs of aggression will outweigh its expected benefits. Nuclear weapons made this logic especially powerful by creating the prospect of unacceptable retaliation.

Autonomous warfare, however, is altering the speed, visibility and psychology of military competition. Artificial intelligence-enabled systems can detect, classify, track and engage targets with limited human intervention. In contrast, autonomous drones, loitering munitions, cyber tools, underwater vehicles and defensive systems may operate across several domains simultaneously. The central question is whether autonomous systems will replace conventional or nuclear deterrence or alter its dynamics.

The Transformative Effects on Deterrence

At the core of this transformation is the integration of AI across the full spectrum of military functions, including intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance (ISR), targeting, command and control, logistics, and, increasingly, the application of force. Autonomous platforms (ranging from loitering munitions and drone swarms to AI-enabled decision-support systems) operate with varying degrees of independence once activated. Human-machine teaming seeks to combine the strengths of both.

Autonomous systems are particularly suited to denial because they can support persistent sensing, distributed defence, and rapid disruption. Unmanned aerial vehicles can monitor approaches to military installations; autonomous underwater systems can observe maritime activity; ground robots can support border surveillance; and AI-enabled command systems can fuse information from multiple sensors. A networked force may complicate an adversary’s effort to achieve surprise, suppress defences or destroy high-value targets.

Autonomy can enhance capability by allowing military systems to process enormous quantities of data and act faster than human operators. An AI-enabled surveillance network may identify changes in an adversary’s deployment patterns before traditional intelligence systems do. Autonomous platforms can then maintain continuous patrols, coordinate with one another and respond to selected threats without waiting for detailed instructions. Such capabilities may strengthen deterrence by denial.

The importance of denial will increase as military forces become more dispersed. Instead of protecting a small number of vulnerable platforms, states may deploy large numbers of mobile, concealed and networked systems. An adversary would then face a difficult targeting problem: destroying some autonomous platforms would not necessarily turn off the entire force. This resilience can reduce the attractiveness of a first strike.

Autonomy can influence credibility. A state with resilient, dispersed, and relatively inexpensive autonomous systems may be able to respond to aggression even after suffering damage to its command centres, air bases, or naval facilities. Swarms and unmanned systems can generate operational effects without exposing large numbers of personnel to danger. This may make retaliation more politically acceptable and therefore more credible.

Autonomy can also impose operational costs. Defensive systems may use algorithms to detect incoming missiles, drones or aircraft and recommend or initiate responses. If these systems are reliable and their employment conditions are clearly defined, they can reduce the prospect that an adversary will achieve a quick victory. The strategic message becomes: aggression will encounter a persistent, adaptive and difficult-to-suppress defence.

Escalation Dynamics

The most serious challenge is compressed decision time. Autonomous systems can identify and respond to threats faster than human institutions can verify information, consult political leaders or establish whether an incident was deliberate. In a crisis, this may generate a “use-or-lose” mentality. Commanders may fear that delaying action will allow an adversary’s autonomous systems to destroy their own sensors, communications or retaliatory forces.

Machine-speed operations can therefore create pressure for pre-delegation. Political and military leaders may authorise automated responses in advance because human approval would be too slow. Yet pre-delegation carries significant risks. An algorithm may misinterpret a civilian aircraft, a training exercise or a cyber intrusion as an attack. A technical malfunction could trigger a chain of responses that neither side intended.

Autonomous warfare also creates the possibility of machine-to-machine interaction. One state’s defensive algorithm may classify the activation of another state’s autonomous system as hostile. The second state may then respond automatically, producing reciprocal escalation. Unlike human decision-makers, algorithms do not possess political intuition, historical memory or an inherent preference for restraint. They optimise according to programmed objectives and available data. If the data are incomplete or manipulated, the resulting decision may be technically rational but strategically disastrous.

Strategic Stability

Autonomous warfare will have its most consequential impact on strategic stability when it interacts with nuclear forces. AI-enabled systems may improve early warning, intelligence analysis and the protection of nuclear assets. They could help identify suspicious activity and strengthen command-and-control resilience. In this respect, autonomy may reduce uncertainty and support more informed decisions.

The opposite is also possible. AI-enabled surveillance and autonomous strike systems could threaten mobile missiles, submarines, command centres and communications networks. If one state believes that its nuclear deterrent is becoming vulnerable, it may adopt more aggressive readiness postures or delegate greater authority to military commanders. The combination of improved detection, persistent tracking and rapid attack could generate fears of a disarming first strike.

This danger is not limited to actual technical capability. Perception also does matter. A state may respond to what it believes an adversary can do, even if the adversary’s systems are not as effective as assumed. Strategic competition could consequently become unstable through exaggerated assessments of AI-enabled counterforce capabilities. The combination of advanced intelligence, strike systems and missile defence may challenge the traditional assumption that retaliation remains assured after a first strike.

Autonomous systems may also blur the boundary between conventional and nuclear operations. An attack on dual-use command-and-control infrastructure by conventional autonomous weapons could be interpreted as preparation for a nuclear attack. If a state cannot distinguish between an anti-conventional operation and an anti-nuclear operation, it may escalate rapidly. Maintaining clear separation between nuclear and conventional assets, preserving human decision authority and establishing crisis communication channels will therefore become increasingly important.

Implications for India and Regional Security

For India, autonomous warfare is directly relevant to a security environment characterised by contested borders, maritime competition, terrorism, cyber threats, and the possibility of simultaneous pressure from multiple directions. Autonomous systems can enhance surveillance along difficult terrain, improve maritime domain awareness and support the protection of critical infrastructure. They can also strengthen deterrence by denial by making surprise incursions, drone attacks and limited aggression more difficult to execute successfully.

However, technology alone cannot provide deterrence. India would require an integrated architecture combining sensors, secure communications, electronic warfare, cyber resilience, air defence, space-based support and trained human operators. Autonomous platforms must remain connected to a wider command-and-control system that can function even when communications are degraded, or networks are attacked.

Concluding Thoughts

The transition to algorithm-assisted autonomous warfare will not change the basic concept of strategic deterrence. It will mandate a more controlled version of it. One that accounts for machine-speed decision cycles and distributed, ambiguous chains of responsibility. It will also have to cater for an adversary whose calculations are also based on software architectures. Autonomy will create an additional layer of deterrence, one based on persistent surveillance, rapid response, distributed force structures, denial of objectives and the ability to impose costs at machine speed.

As autonomous capabilities continue to grow, policymakers will have the important task of adapting and finding balance during this transition. In autonomous warfare, deterrence will depend not just on cutting-edge technologies but also on ensuring these systems operate within clear, transparent guidelines, robust command structures, well-rounded legal frameworks, and internationally accepted norms. The goal isn’t to slow technological progress, but to ensure that humans, who are ultimately responsible for warfare, still have the power to choose peace.

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References: –

Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses. (2019). Artificial intelligence and national security: Indian perspectives. Manohar Parrikar Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses.

Rajaraman, V. (2014). Robot soldiers: Artificial intelligence and the future of warfare. Resonance, 19(11), 1037–1048.

Horowitz, M. C. (2016). The ethics & morality of robotic warfare: Assessing the debate over autonomous weapons. Political Science Quarterly, 131(2), 331–351.

Boulanin, V., Saalman, L., Topychkanov, P., Su, F., & Peldán Carlsson, M. (2020). Artificial intelligence, strategic stability and nuclear risk. Stockholm International Peace Research Institute.

Su, F., Wan, W., Saalman, L., & Chernavskikh, V. (2025). Pragmatic approaches to governance at the artificial intelligence–nuclear nexus. Stockholm International Peace Research Institute.

Boulanin, V., Saalman, L., Topychkanov, P., Su, F., & Peldán Carlsson, M. (2020). Artificial intelligence, strategic stability and nuclear risk. Stockholm International Peace Research Institute.

Johnson, J. (2020). Artificial intelligence, drone swarming and deterrence. Journal of Strategic Studies, 43(5), 1–24.
Horowitz, M. C. (2019). When speed kills: Lethal autonomous weapons, deterrence, and stability. Journal of Strategic Studies, 42(5), 764–788.