852:INDIA’S AIR POWER AMID RISING GEOPOLITICAL CHALLENGES

 

 

Article published in the Sep 26 edition of the “Blue Print” Magazine

 

Air power has become a crucial instrument of national security. Possessing credible, technologically advanced air power is no longer a luxury but a strategic imperative. India occupies a unique geopolitical position. It shares borders with two nuclear-armed neighbours. Both of whom present distinct and collusive security challenges. The increasing militarisation of the Indo-Pacific region is further altering India’s security calculus. Newer technologies such as unmanned aerial systems (UAS), hypersonic missiles, cyber warfare, artificial intelligence, and space-based military capabilities have expanded the dimensions of aerial warfare.

Air power is essential to India’s security. As geopolitical tensions grow and military technology advances, India’s aerial capabilities will become a vital means of deterrence, power projection, and safeguarding national security. The extent to which the country modernises and integrates its aerial forces will significantly affect its ability to cope with the complicated geopolitical situation of the coming decades.

The Strategic Importance of Air Power. Air power constitutes a highly adaptable and lethal instrument of statecraft. It is characterised by its extensive reach, swift responsiveness, and ability to impose shock and influence through precise, non-contact means of applying force. Its effects can be activated or deactivated more easily than other instruments of national power. Although it provides a broad array of offensive capabilities, its utility extends beyond mere offensive operations. It also plays a vital role in deterrence, strategic positioning, and coercion, whether in wartime or peacetime. Unlike ground forces, air power can be deployed over great distances in just a short time and is therefore essential in times of crisis. In natural disasters, air power can provide rapid humanitarian assistance. It supports both military security and national resilience.

 

Geopolitical Challenges and Emerging Threats

India’s air power today sits at the centre of a far more complex security environment than at any point in the past two decades. The challenge is not only the classic two-front problem with China and Pakistan, but also the need to modernise fast enough to preserve deterrence. At the same time, air warfare is being transformed by drones, missiles, cyber, space, and networked targeting.

The China Challenge. China is India’s most significant long-term strategic challenge. The military standoff in eastern Ladakh since 2020 demonstrated that border tensions can escalate rapidly and require sustained military preparedness.  The People’s Liberation Army Air Force (PLAAF) has undergone extensive modernisation over the past two decades. China has also developed extensive military infrastructure in Tibet and Xinjiang. These include upgraded airbases, hardened aircraft shelters, extended runways, and logistics facilities that can support sustained air operations near the Indian border.

Pakistan and the Persistent Security Challenge. Pakistan relies on non-state actors funded and trained on its own soil to keep India in a state of unrest through disinformation, incitement and terrorism.  It remains a security threat across the nuclear, conventional and sub-conventional dimensions simultaneously. The 2019 Balakot air strike and the recent Op Sindoor highlighted the growing role of air power in India’s strategy of punitive deterrence. India’s ability to conduct precision strikes deep inside hostile territory demonstrated a willingness to employ air power. However, the subsequent aerial engagement also emphasised the importance of superior situational awareness, electronic warfare, and beyond-visual-range combat capabilities.

The Rise of Drones and Autonomous Warfare. The rise of autonomous drones is one of the most significant developments in contemporary air warfare. Drones have moved from mere surveillance vehicles to versatile weapons. They can deliver precise strikes, conduct electronic warfare, and carry out reconnaissance and intelligence collection. In recent conflicts, it has been shown that relatively cheap drones can cause disproportionate damage to advanced military equipment. Swarm drone technology in particular poses considerable challenges for traditional air defence systems because it is hard to track and destroy multiple low-cost aerial targets at the same time. India is now encountering increasing drone-related threats on both its western and northern borders, and reports of drone-enabled smuggling, surveillance, and cross-border infiltration highlight the importance of having strong counter-drone capabilities.

Cyber Warfare and Electronic Warfare. Air operations now rely heavily on secure communication networks, satellite navigation, and data links. As aerial warfare platforms become more interconnected, they also become more susceptible to cyberattacks and electronic interference. Enemies could disrupt air operations by attacking communication systems, navigation networks, or mission-critical software. Electronic warfare can greatly reduce the effectiveness of the most advanced aircraft. Protection of digital infrastructure has become as important as protecting airbases. India must invest in secure communications, encrypted data links, and cyber defence capabilities.

Space as a Strategic Domain. Space has emerged as a critical component of air power. The term airpower has evolved into aerospace power, with the aerial warfare envelope expanding into the space domain. Space-based systems and applications are embedded in every aspect of aerial warfare. They are providing capabilities including navigation, targeting, communication, early warning of missile launches, and space-based surveillance. The integration of space-based systems with air assets is expected to increase further. This will create opportunities for both offensive and defensive operations. However, increasing dependence on satellite-based systems also creates vulnerabilities. Anti-satellite warfare spans kinetic weapons such as missiles as well as non-kinetic systems including jammers, laser dazzlers and spoofing equipment. Denial of space-based systems directly affects air warfare.

The Indo-Pacific and Maritime Air Power. India’s strategic interests extend beyond its borders. The Indo-Pacific area is now the centre of global economic activity and strategic competition. It is seeing rising naval deployments, disputes over maritime routes, and a growing number of military cooperation agreements. Air power plays a vital role in protecting maritime interests by enabling long-range surveillance, conducting anti-submarine warfare, conducting maritime reconnaissance, and allowing rapid force deployment. The ability to monitor key sea lanes, respond effectively to humanitarian crises, and support naval operations confirms India’s status as a major security provider in the Indian Ocean Region.

 

Strengthening India’s Air Power

India’s military aspirations must align with its socioeconomic condition and likely threats. The path forward for India is clear: it must enhance its deterrence capability while investing in future war-fighting technologies. With its significant offensive potential and responsiveness, air power is the most crucial arm of military action. As the nature of warfare evolves, India’s approach to air power must keep pace. The future lies in building an integrated, technology-driven, and self-reliant aerospace ecosystem that can address conventional, asymmetric, and multidomain threats. Sustained investment in modernisation, indigenous innovation, joint military operations, and human capital will be essential for maintaining India’s strategic advantage.

Capability and Capacity Balance for Credible Deterrence. Warfighting capability and the capacity to sustain operations are both essential, combining quality and quantity. While India’s air power capabilities (in terms of reach, high-altitude operations, precision, standoff, and all-weather performance) have advanced significantly, it must also increase the numerical strength of fighter aircraft, combat enablers, long-range vectors, and drones. One of the Indian Air Force’s foremost priorities is to restore its fighter squadron strength.  Bridging this gap requires the timely induction of new-generation aircraft (fighters and combat support aircraft), while ensuring modernisation plans are financially sustainable.

Enhancing Indigenous Defence Manufacturing. Self-reliance has become a strategic necessity. Relying on imported defence equipment creates vulnerabilities. India should develop its own technological abilities and increase its defence manufacturing capacity. It will reduce dependence on foreign suppliers. Indigenous development of radars, electronic warfare systems, missiles, drones, and aircraft components will strengthen India’s technological base, create jobs, and boost exports. As part of the Atmanirbhar Bharat effort in defence manufacturing, the aim is to enhance self-reliance by encouraging the domestic production of these systems. The initiative has sped up domestic defence production by involving more public sector enterprises, private industries, start-ups, and research institutions. The Defence Research and Development Organisation (DRDO), Hindustan Aeronautics Limited (HAL), academic institutions, and the private sector must work together to shorten development timelines and promote innovation.

Embracing Emerging Technologies. The adoption of emerging technologies. Technological advances are further reshaping the nature of air warfare. Precision-guided munitions, stealth technology, network-centric operations, satellite-enabled communications, artificial intelligence, and autonomous drones are all altering the battlefield. Autonomous drones and the idea of loyal wingmen are expected to transform aerial combat. India should also make investments in directed-energy weapons, advanced electronic warfare capabilities, and cyber-resilient command-and-control networks. These technologies can greatly increase operational effectiveness while reducing personnel risk. Air power assets depend heavily on technology. Turning technology into capability takes a long time. To stay ahead of the challenges, we need to invest in emerging technologies and think through their use in warfare. Impetus is also required for existing aviation-related programs such as fifth-generation fighters, Transport aircraft (for civil and military requirements), Development of gas turbines and engines, sensors and seekers, stealth, metallurgy and composites, unmanned platforms and swarms, AI-enabled autonomous systems, and long-range vectors.

Airpower Utilisation in Grey Zone Scenario. Grey zone operations occur in a contested arena between routine statecraft and open warfare.  These are becoming a norm in modern-day warfare. Both of India’s adversaries resort to these operations regularly. Airpower can reinforce the nation’s course of action against grey zone warfare, with involvement in several direct and supporting roles. Besides offensive use, it can also be effectively utilised in many ways in non-conventional hostile situations categorised above. Applying airpower in these grey zone situations requires some reorientation, supported by capability enhancement in certain fields.

 

Conclusion

India’s air Power is at a crucial stage. Competing regional interests, technological progress, and changes in warfare have increased the strategic value of air power. As India faces challenges from both China and Pakistan and the Indo-Pacific region grows more important, it needs constant modernisation and strategic adjustment. India can ensure its air power remains capable of protecting its national interests in this increasingly uncertain and contested geopolitical environment by promoting innovation, supporting domestic research, and adopting multidomain warfare.

 

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Information and data included in the blog are for educational & non-commercial purposes only and have been carefully adapted, excerpted, or edited from reliable and accurate sources. All copyrighted material belongs to the respective owners and is provided only for wider dissemination.

 

 

References: –

  1. Fontanellaz A, “Operation Sindoor: The India-Pakistan air war”, Centre d’Histoire et de Prospective Militaires (2026).
  1. Jane’s, “Feature: China accelerates air combat modernisation”, Janes.com (2025, November 19).
  1. Jha M K, “IAF – Target “42 squadron”, SP’s Aviation, (9), (2025).
  1. Khosla A, “Future conflict scenarios: Implications for IAF (Part 1)”, Air Marshal’s Perspective, (2021, March 15).
  1. Khosla, A. (2021, July 26). Airpower in the grey zone. USI Journal; reproduced on Air Marshal’s Perspective.
  1. Khosla, A. “Aero India 2025 and key solutions for IAF’s challenges”, SP’s Aviation; reproduced on Air Marshal’s Perspective (2025, February 11).
  1. Khosla, A. (2025, February). Future trends of fighter aircraft—SP Aviation Yearbook; reproduced on Air Marshal’s Perspective.
  1. Ministry of Defence, Government of India. (2025, February). Make in India powers defence growth [Press release]. Press Information Bureau.

 

839: EXPLAINED: WHY LEASE WHEN YOU ARE BUYING THEM

 

Inputs to questionnaire from journalists

 

India has operated leased SeaGuardians since 2020. India leased them because the Navy needed persistent ISR capability while the much larger procurement moved through the system. The Indian Navy has found them useful and has flown them for thousands of hours.

The new lease contract has reportedly been signed on17 August 2026. It includes a 30-month lease for two MQ-9B Sea Guardian drones from General Atomics Aeronautical Systems. The contract is valued at approximately ₹1,943 crore. 

On the face of it, ₹1,943 crore for two MQ-9B SeaGuardians for only 30 months looks extremely expensive. The ₹1,943 crore price tag is not a basic rental fee for two airframes. It represents a Company-Owned, Company-Operated (COCO) capability package. The value proposition includes sensors, communications, ground-control infrastructure, technical support, maintenance, operators/support personnel, availability, etc.

    • Complete Operational Burden. General Atomics (GA-ASI) provides the entire ecosystem (possibly including Ground Control Stations (GCS), satellite communication bandwidth, continuous payload integration, spare parts, and on-site engineering support).
    • Assured Flight-Hours. The cost includes availability of a guaranteed number of operational flight hours. The manufacturer would bear the cost associated with airframe degradation, maintenance cycles, component failures, and logistics overhead.
    • Specialised Payload Rent. The lease includes high-end, mission-specific sensor suites (360-degree maritime surface search radars, synthetic aperture radars (SAR), electro-optical/infrared (EO/IR) balls, and signals intelligence (SIGINT) packages).

The lease would buy time and capability.  India entered into the agreement in October 2024 for 31 MQ-9Bs (specifically 15 SeaGuardians and 16 SkyGuardians). India’s acquisition of 31 aircraft does not mean they will become operational right away; reports indicate the first deliveries will not take place until late 2028 or early 2029. Since we need the capability right now, there will be a gap of several years. To sum up, the purchase is the long-term solution, while the lease is a short-term remedy.

There’s another way of looking at it. The lease would be a training and transition bridge. The new lease could allow personnel, maintenance teams, operators and mission planners to continue building experience while the larger fleet is inducted. It would allow operational availability, training, experience, maintenance support, sensors, contractor support, insurance/replacement risk, and immediate access. Rather than a redundant expense, the lease would serve as a high-readiness bridge. It would provide immediate maritime surveillance capacity while laying the tactical groundwork for the larger fleet’s arrival.

In short, the two newly leased Sea Guardians are not a standalone act but a deliberate interim measure that keeps the Navy’s IOR surveillance posture strong and operationally continuous while the larger, permanent 31-aircraft tri-service fleet is manufactured and delivered.

The bigger picture

The drones complement, rather than replace, the P-8I fleet. India’s surveillance architecture is increasingly layered:

    • MQ-9B SeaGuardian: long-endurance unmanned surveillance, able to remain on station for extended periods.
    • P-8I Poseidon: manned long-range maritime patrol aircraft with sophisticated radar and anti-submarine warfare capabilities.
    • Satellites: wide-area, space-based observation.
    • Coastal and island-based sensors/radars: persistent monitoring closer to shore and around strategic maritime chokepoints.
    • Other naval assets: ships, submarines and aircraft that can investigate or act on information generated by the surveillance network.

A layered network:

Satellites → see broadly

MQ-9Bs → stay over an area for a long time.

P-8Is → investigate and conduct sophisticated maritime/ASW missions.

Ships/submarines → physically respond.

The MQ-9B lease fits into that picture as the tactical, tasking-responsive layer of a system whose outer layers are space-based sensing and coastal radar, and whose command layer is the fusion-centre network.

 

Link to the report on Wion TV:-

 

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836: MUM-T DEMONSTRATION: POSEIDON TASKING TRITON

 

On 05 Aug 26, Boeing and Northrop conducted a lab demo test teaming the manned P-8A Poseidon maritime patrol aircraft and the unmanned MQ-4C Triton high-altitude long-endurance (HALE) ISR platform.

The P-8A operator sent machine-readable/machine-actionable mission tasking to a simulated Triton. The Triton then autonomously planned and executed the mission (e.g., transit to an area, collect intelligence with its sensors), processed data onboard via AI algorithms, and returned processed intelligence to the Poseidon.

The demo showed the first automated collaboration using an open systems architecture and the Universal Command and Control Interface. The announcement’s emphasis on universal standard interfaces is significant. Rather than using proprietary, platform-specific software, standard interfaces allow different systems to exchange information more easily.

 

Even though the P-8A and MQ-4C are both surveillance platforms, they have very different strengths.

P-8A Poseidon. Manned, multi-mission platform optimised for anti-submarine warfare (ASW), anti-surface warfare, response/agility (including lower-altitude operations), high-resolution imagery, weapons delivery, and rapid prosecution of contacts. Its crews operate in a dynamic tactical environment.

MQ-4C Triton. Unmanned HALE platform for persistent, wide-area maritime domain awareness. It has long endurance of more than 24 hours, and operates at high altitude (50,000+ feet). It has broad sensor coverage including multi-int radar, EO/IR, SIGINT.

 

Key Benefits for Operators

The key idea in teaming them up is about letting each do what it does best. Instead of both independently searching the same ocean, the Triton can automatically detect and cue the Poseidon. It reduces the workload on human operators.

It would reduce operator workload, speed up decision-making, enable more flexible and responsive manned-unmanned teaming, and leverage their complementary strengths for broader, more efficient maritime ISR and related missions. Key benefits would be: –

Reduced Workload and Cognitive Burden. The demonstration focuses on automating tasking, planning, execution, and the use of onboard AI. As a result, P-8 operators will no longer have to manually coordinate all the individual aspects or depend on ground stations when making routine intelligence requests or assigning tasks. Instead, they will be able to concentrate on higher-level mission management, tactical decisions, and using the fused picture, rather than closely monitoring the unmanned asset. This reduces the operator’s workload and speeds up the intelligence cycle.

Faster, More Responsive Decision-Making and Targeting. Direct machine-to-machine exchange delivers processed maritime intelligence much faster. This supports quicker cueing for follow-on actions. In contested or time-sensitive environments, this improves the overall kill chain decision speed.

Direct In-Flight Tasking and Greater Tactical Flexibility. Currently, Tritons are typically controlled from distant ground stations. The demo establishes a foundation for P-8 crews to issue tasking and receive results in flight (via realistic links such as satellite relay) without routing everything through the ground control station. This extends the Poseidon’s effective reach, allows dynamic retasking based on the manned aircraft’s real-time situational awareness, and improves the composite battlespace picture under the control of the airborne crew.

Better Use of Complementary Capabilities Without Redundancy. Triton handles the long-endurance, broad-area “look” mission persistently. Poseidon handles responsive, close-in, multi-mission work (including ASW that Triton does not perform). Automated teaming lets them operate more seamlessly as a unit rather than operating in relative isolation or with slower human-mediated coordination. Shared standards also ease training synergies (some operators cross-qualify) and common operating pictures.

Broader Interoperability and Future Scalability at Lower Cost/Risk. Use of universal/open standards rather than proprietary links allows collaboration with other platforms. This makes integration easier and more cost-effective, and also supports evolutionary upgrades on existing fleets.

 

Summary

By combining the two surveillance platforms, the team created a more closely integrated system. The operators gain in efficiency (because there is less manual coordination), in speed (since the intelligence and decisions can be made more quickly), in reach and flexibility (through direct control from the air) and in effectiveness (due to the continuous coverage and the ability to carry out a variety of missions in a responsive manner). This is especially valuable in the case of large areas of responsibility over seawater where both persistence and rapid response are essential. The demonstration carried out in the laboratory represents an initial stage in the way these capabilities can be put into operational use.

 

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