Q & A SERIES

Pics Courtesy: Internet

 

Q1. Will Xi Jinping come back for a third term?

 

A1. At the moment his chances are 50:50.

 

• He is too aggressive in his approach.

 

• He is a man in a hurry.

 

• He has made too many enemies internally and externally.

 

• His performance in the analysis of China’s two drivers:-

 

• Get lost glory back – has done fairly well (made gains in HK, SCS, disputed territories, etc).

 

• Avoid century of humiliation – has not faired too well (made too many enemies, has played his cards a bit early, and has encouraged anti-China groupings).

 

• The internal dynamics of China is a “Game of Thrones”. Fault lines are appearing, and Voices of dissent are rising.

 

• It is wait and watch for signs in the coming days.

 

 

Q2. Is China’s military modernisation progressing according to schedule and will it meet future timelines?

 

A2. It is more or less progressing according to schedule but is likely to slow down in the future.

 

• There is a divided opinion amongst analysts about the meeting of the timelines so far.

 

• In certain areas, there is still work in progress.

 

• Pandemic and Chinese behaviour have created anti-China feelings. This will change the world’s dealings with China adversely affecting her economy.

 

• Internal power play and dynamics will further slow things down.

 

Q3. Could China’s activities on Land frontiers with India be to divert attention from the IOR region?

 

A3. Could be. We should not neglect (ANC) Andaman & Nicobar Command and further enhance its military capability.

 

• China always does things with a plan and a long-term goal.

 

• China firmly believes in deception and exercises it.

 

• China is increasing its expeditionary capabilities.

 

• Numerically her PLA Navy has already overtaken US Navy.

 

• It has already launched its third aircraft carrier – heading toward a three-fleet navy.

 

• It has already established logistic support bases in IOR.

 

• Its presence in IOR has increased manifold in the last few years.

 

Q4. Does the Indian War book need a review?

 

A4. Yes, it needs a review.

 

• The Global and regional geopolitical situation has changed.

 

• The extent and type of threats have changed.

 

• The nature of warfare has changed.

 

• New domains of warfare (Cyber, space, Info Psychology, and Electronics) need to be addressed.

 

• Grey Zone activities need to be included.

 

Unanswerable Question

Where is Russia-Ukraine heading and when will it end?

 

Bottom Line

Crystal gazing into the future of warfare and geopolitics is impossible.

At the most, an educated and calculated guess can be made with a 50% chance of success.

 

Suggestions and value additions are most welcome

 

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