FUTURE CONFLICT SCENARIOS: IMPLICATIONS FOR IAF (PART 1)

Changes in warfare and implications

• The contours of conventional war / conflict are changing and become more ambiguous and wide

• Long drawn out conventional wars are a thing of the past due to diminished international acceptability of capture of territory & collateral damage and also increasing economic costs.

• Terrorism, piracy and sectarian conflicts are extending the boundaries to grey zone, hybrid, sub-conventional conflicts in the ‘no peace, no war’ realm.

• The battle space for war fighting is expanding (into multi domains) with compression of time.

• Future conflicts are likely to be short, swift and intense engagements against a nuclear backdrop.

• Future security challenges will be more and more complex, multi-dimensional and non-traditional in both kinetic and non-kinetic form.

• Success would lie on the ability to act in the shortest possible time, inside the decision cycle of the adversary demanding very high level of real time situational awareness.

 

Regional / Local Scenario

• Geopolitically Asia is the most war risk-prone region of the world.

 

• India’s shares 6,917 kilometres of live borders with two nuclear armed hostile.

 

• In recent past, the region has gone through frequent trigger incidents like Galwan Valley encroachment across the Line of Actual Control (LAC) and Doklam face-off with China, and frequent terror attack by terrorist groups based in Pakistan. These events could lead to a war or conflict.

 

China

• China has emerged as a major regional power with aspiration to be a global power.

• China’s desire to dominate Asia and finally the world has implications for India.

• India’s relations with china are changing from cooperative to competitive to combative.

• China also continues to enhance its strategic presence in the Indian Ocean Region.

• Simultaneously China is investing in the Indian Ocean littoral countries to achieve a foot-hold and extend influence.

• China would like to keep India off-balance.

• China follows the philosophy of systems destruction warfare (i.e. disruption, paralyses or destruction of enemy operational systems).

 

Pakistan

• Pakistan remains a security threat in all dimensions i.e. nuclear, conventional and sub-conventional.

• Pakistan continues to be the epicentre of world terror. Pakistan would continue to use non-state actors to maintain a situation of unrest.

• Asymmetric warfare will remain an instrument of its state policy. Pakistan’s strategy would continue to be wage proxy war and in the event of an escalation, use the nuclear card.

 

China – Pak Collusive Challenge

• Chin’s increasing economic and political ties with Pakistan have an influence on the geostrategic balance of the region.

• China has strategic interests in using Pakistani territory to reach West Asia and Africa for trade and geo-strategic positioning. It has invested in the China Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) that connects Xinjiang region in West China to the China-built-and-operated Gwadar port near Gulf of Hormuz.

• China has helped Pakistan militarily including help to acquire technologies for its nuclear weapons and missile program.

• In case of a conflict between India and Pakistan, China would posture along the northern and eastern border to keep the Indian military might divided and would also use its influence in the international forums to bring about a ceasefire at the earliest.

• Pakistan openly boasts of collusive support from China in case of a war with India.

To be continued…

Link to Part 2 

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