Tag: Grey Zone

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138: India’s Grey Zone Threat Scenario.

India is a large and most diverse nation with two inimical neighbours.

 

India’s myriad problems provide innumerable opportunities for the belligerent adversaries to exploit in the grey zone.

 

The increased radicalisation in the neighbourhood has further opened up new grey spaces.

 

Grey zone tactics is being followed both by China and Pakistan using different means.

 

Pakistan.

Pakistan is using the low-cost option of grey zone tactics against India by promoting violent extremist groups.

 

These non-state actor groups get funding and training in Pakistan, to carry out irregular warfare against India.

 

The spectrum of anti-India grey zone warfare emanating from Pakistan is fairly wide ranging from disinformation and incitement to terrorism.

 

The grey zone activities of Pakistan include propaganda, false narratives, cyber warfare, and encouraging internal dissent to terrorism, to undermine the Indian national security.

 

China.

China is the master of grey zone operations.

 

This type of warfare is embedded in her philosophy, strategic thoughts and doctrines.

 

China has further mastered the art of converting and using anything and everything into a weapon for grey zone warfare.

 

China practices its famous three-warfare strategy, encompasses non-kinetic means like psychology, media and law warfare, to achieve political ends.

 

China has been using psychological warfare and coercion against India with the aim to subdue India without fighting.

 

Dealing Strategy.

India a large democratic and bureaucratic state is considered to be a weak spot for grey zone operations.

 

It will lose out if does not adapt to the changing nature of warfare.

 

India must prepare to deter China and Pakistan from extreme forms of grey zone aggression.

 

An important part of any grey zone response strategy is to undertake institutional reform.

 

These organisational and structural reforms, need to be embedded in the current structures, in a phased manner without causing too much of turbulence.

 

A word of caution that a change for the sake of change due to peer pressure needs to be avoided.

 

The change should be based on factors like our threat perception, technological threshold, economic conditions and geo-political environment.

 

India, must develop framework of strategic deterrence to deal with grey zone warfare.

 

More coming up on this subject

 

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132: Q & A Series: No War No Peace Situation & Grey Zone Conflict

Recently I wrote an article on “Airpower and Grey Zone Operations”. During the research, one question kept nagging my brain, so I asked all my colleagues and veterans, carrying out research and analysis on defence and security related subjects, individually or in association with different think tanks. Got some clarity on the issue with quite a few perspectives.

 

Question: What is the difference between Grey Zone (GZ) Conflicts / operations and No War No Peace (NWNP) situation?

 

Answer:

NWNP is an existing state (generally at the borders) – GZ is a zone in the continuum of war between peace and declared war.

 

NWNP is generally referred to military domain (actions or matters) – GZ is multi domain in DIME paradigm.

 

NWNP uses military tools as threats and weapons – GZ anything or everything can be used as a threat or weapon from multiple domains (political, economic, information, psychological, diplomatic, cyber and space etc).

 

NWNP includes firing by regular forces, small team actions across border and actions by non-state actors in concert with regulars etc – GZ activities are much broader and ambiguous.

 

NWNP is referred in the context of Indo-Pak border situations – GZ term appeared in the lexicon of defence and security analysts in global context.

 

NWNP was a low level term largely utilised on LOC – GZ is a wider concept that looks at the wide space between peace and war – a zone that is blurred.

 

NWNP situations may or may not have deniability – GZ operations generally have a high degree of deniability.

 

NWNP generally involves kinetic weapons and could lead to escalation – GZ generally employs hybrid warfare techniques (with kinetic weapons being one of the options but rarely used).

 

NWNP is a situation existing between two nations with their militaries face to face – GZ is a conflict between two nations not necessarily in eyeball situation.

 

NWNP is related to posturing, deterrence, coercion and use of force – GZ is achieving the objectives without military confrontation.

 

NWNP: the escalatory ladder can be traversed (up or down) at a rapid pace – GZ the transition is gradual and slower.

 

NWNP: the actions may be localised, limited in area and influence – GZ actions generally affect a large area or number of people.

 

Titbit

We are in NWNP situation with Pakistan

Chinese have mastered the art of Grey Zone operations

 

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124: Grey Zone Operations or Conflicts

 

Definition. 

Grey Zone conflicts also referred as shadow wars have been defined in many ways.

 

They are not formal or traditional conflicts or full scale wars between nations or states. 

 

 Grey zone operations or conflicts fall somewhere in between the peace-conflict continuum.

 

Two major characteristics of Grey Zone conflicts are that the threshold is maintained below the level of full scale war, and second that, the means of operations are not restricted to military actions. Variety of instruments of power, often asymmetric and ambiguous in character are used to achieve the objectives.

 

Means.

Grey zone conflicts focus on the weaknesses and the vulnerabilities of countries being addressed.

 

The vulnerabilities could include weak economic conditions, internal disparities, ethnic alignments and religious polarisation etc.

 

Based on these vulnerabilities, local population, disillusioned elements or even the diaspora could be exploited.

 

The grey zone activities could be in the domain of politics, economy, social movements, diplomacy, cyber, space, information, psychological and / or communications.

 

Characteristics.

Grey Zone operations are generally sub-conventional in nature employing irregular means.

 

They could be overt or covert, carried out by proxy players or non-state actors.

 

They generally have a high degree of ambiguity and deniability.

 

Invariably they are conducted in multiple domains, maybe using both kinetic and non-kinetic modes simultaneously.

 

They generally include the nuances of other classifications of hostile actions like no war no peace, hybrid operation, asymmetric and sub conventional warfare etc.

 

Comparison and Differentiation.

Grey zone conflicts, no war no peace operations and hybrid warfare are terms used by security analysts and academics to describe prevailing hostile conditions between two countries.

 

No war no peace (NWNP) operations also fall in the same zone as grey zone conflict, but NWNP operations are generally referred to military actions whereas, grey zone activities could be in any of the numerous domains mentioned above.

 

Grey zone conflicts and hybrid warfare are other two terms which could be confusing. Grey zone is an operational environment encompassing the space between peace and war, whereas, hybrid warfare refers to the threats that are exploited in multiple domains. These threats could be employed either in full-fledged open war or in Grey-Zone conflict situations.

 

Grey-Zone conflict and hybrid means are not independent of each other, they are intricately linked to each other.

 

Value additions and comments are most welcome

 

coming up: Various aspects of grey zone operations

 

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