Pic: Courtesy Sandboxx US
Introduction
Hypersonic projectiles and platforms are emerging as a highly valued weapon system for militaries world over, due to their unique combination of attributes. The characteristics of hypersonic missiles include sustained high speed (five times the speed of sound), increased manoeuvrability, and High altitude trajectory (in upper atmosphere – higher than cruise missiles but lower than the apogee of ballistic missiles). These attributes make them difficult to be intercepted by the existing missile defence systems.
As in the space race and other high-technology fields, China has made a major effort to match Russian and U.S. capabilities. PRC research into the military potential of hypersonic technologies used to lag far behind that of Russia and the United States. But during the past decade, China has invested heavily in new hypersonic research, development, test, and evaluation programs and facilities, and now her research may have surpassed that of the U.S. in some regards.
Hypersonic R & D
Organisations. The 10th Near Space Flight Research Institute under the state-owned China Aerospace Science and Industry Corporation (CASIC) leads much of China’s HGV research and development efforts. Other organizations heavily involved in hypersonic research include the Chinese Academy of Sciences, Institute of Mechanics and the Academy of Military Science (AMS)-affiliated China Aerodynamics Research and Development Centre (CARDC).
Infrastructure. China is constructing some of the world’s fastest wind tunnels, which can simulate hypersonic flight conditions on the ground and streamline testing. It is also developing a large-scale supercomputer program that could enable the better simulation, modelling, and development of hypersonic technologies and other advanced weapons development.
Hypersonic Platforms. The People’s Republic of China (PRC) is pursuing various hypersonic delivery systems to augment its already impressive arsenal of precision strike capabilities. China’s new hypersonic delivery vehicles, which could be armed with either conventional or nuclear munitions, could better attack many time-sensitive, mobile, or high-value targets compared with non-hypersonic SSMs, manned and unmanned aeroplanes.
- Aircraft. In 2018, Chinese scientists tested three different designs of scaled-down hypersonic aircraft, codenamed D18-1S, D18-2S, and D18-3S. These possessed distinct designs: one with a single vertical tail, another with two, and the third with a single wing above its body. The variety of designs permitted Chinese scientists to evaluate how various aerodynamic features can affect flight performance.
- Glider. In August 2018, the China Academy of Aerospace Aerodynamics announced the first official test flight of Starry Sky-2, a new hypersonic glider employing experimental “wave rider” technology, in which a hypersonic delivery vehicle rides shock waves generated by its own flight to boost lift, and which media reports suggested could be used as part of a hypersonic strike platform “capable of evading all existing air-defence networks”.
Hypersonic Missiles
The first public demonstration of China’s apparently operational hypersonic capability came when the PLA displayed several DF-17s, a solid-fuelled medium-range ballistic missile (MRBM) with a range of 2,000 kilometer (1,243 miles), designed to launch the DF-ZF (also known as the WU-14) HGV during a 2019 National Day parade.
PRC media sources have also discussed deploying HGVs on longer-range ballistic missiles, including the new DF-41 intercontinental-range ballistic missile (ICBM).
The PLA has invested heavily in building a massive intermediate-range missile arsenal. The PLA is now researching and developing two basic types of hypersonic missiles, which can be categorized based on their means of propulsion.
- The first group, hypersonic cruise missiles (HCM), rely on powered flight with air-breathing engines.
- The second group, hypersonic glide vehicles (HGV), are launched into the upper atmosphere (50-80 kilometre, or 30-50 miles) and then glide unpowered toward a target.
Both types can reach distant targets more rapidly than China’s existing subsonic or even supersonic cruise missiles and warplanes. And although China’s ballistic missiles can fly as fast as these hypersonic systems, HCMs and HGVs have more unpredictable manoeuvrability, allowing evasion of Ballistic Missile Defence (BMD) systems.
The PLA Navy (PLAN) might also seek to emulate Russia’s ship-launched Tsirkon hypersonic capabilities and equip its JL-2 submarine-launched ballistic missiles (SLBMs) with nuclear-armed HGVs to further improve strategic nuclear deterrence.
The PRC military-industrial complex is also researching HCMs powered by supersonic combustion ramjet (or scramjet) engines, which compress and ignite high-speed incoming air to generate vigorous thrust. According to media reports, the Institute of Mechanics last year conducted a ground test in which a scramjet engine ran for a record 10 minutes. If successfully applied during high speed flight, the technology would allow a missile to travel at sustained hypersonic speeds for some 4,000km. This could eventually be used to develop a global power projection capability.
War fighting Utilisation Philosophy
Launch Platform / Vehicles. Hypersonic missiles launched from planes or ships can reach targets further away than equivalent ground-based systems launched from mainland bases. More importantly, they can approach a target from a wider range of locations than if launched from a land-based system, compounding their ability to evade existing BMD systems.
Hybrid Networked Swarms. In October 2020, an amateur video posted online appeared to suggest that the PLA was developing an air-launched HCM capable of being carried by a strategic bomber such as the H-6N, missile carrier aircraft or possibly a more advanced successor. In March of this year, the Beijing Institute of Technology published a study entitled, “Network for hypersonic UCAV swarms” which discussed how groups of future Unmanned Combat Air Vehicles could act in coordinated operations through networked sensors and communications at hypersonic speeds.
Opening Shots. The PLA will most likely employ hypersonic systems in combination with its subsonic and supersonic delivery systems. Because of their speed and unique trajectory capabilities, hypersonic missiles can, as first-strike weapons, facilitate follow-on attacks by non-hypersonic strike systems by disabling an adversary’s air and missile defence systems.
Capability / Utilisation Dilemma. China’s hypersonics is still an emerging military technology and its effectiveness in battle is unproven. Furthermore, it is not known whether China will choose to only arm its hypersonic missiles with conventional munitions, or load some of its hypersonic delivery systems with nuclear warheads. In any case, China’s novel hypersonic capabilities could, alongside the growing power of the PLA in general, make PRC decision-makers more confident about their ability to employ force successfully.
Hypersonic Threat Mitigation. A comprehensive missile defence strategy is required that will deliver integrated and effective capability to counter ballistic, cruise, and hypersonic missile threats. Some of the passive defensive measures against traditional missiles are also effective against hypersonic weapons, these include deception, dispersal, hardening and concealment etc. In the future, more active responses could encompass disrupting hypersonic data links and sensors, space-based sensors that can track missiles in the upper atmosphere, and novel technologies for interception.
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References
https://gjia.georgetown.edu/2021/01/27/chinas-hypersonic-weapons/
https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s11432-019-2765-7
https://www.uscc.gov/sites/default/files/Research/China%20and%20INF_0.pdf
https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/08/Hypersonics-Weapons-Primer-Report.pdf
https://www.defense.gov/Portals/1/Interactive/2018/11-2019-Missile-Defense-Review/The%202019%20MDR_Executive%20Summary.pdf
https://jamestown.org/program/chinas-hypersonic-missiles-methods-and-motives/
Is India likely to catch up ? Plain answer NO as of now.
Initial first steps have been taken.
Depends upon perseverance and the pace.