Tag: geopolitics

Presented my views at a round table conference at the Best Practices Meet 2025 organised by Data Security Council of India on 21 Aug 25.

The year 2025 has been a decisive moment for international security. It has confirmed trends that have been emerging over the last decade. Growing rivalries between several powers, the swift development of hybrid warfare, and defence transformation have been evident in fighting in Ukraine, and Gaza, elsewhere. These scenarios represent a combination of great power competition, scarcity of resources, and technological innovation that compelled countries to adapt rapidly to new realities. This article emphasises salient geopolitical dynamics, lessons of the 2025 wars, and emerging defence modernisation trends. It summarises how nations are reacting to a more precarious world.

Geopolitical Dynamics

Changing Power Blocs and Multipolar Rivalries. The world in 2025 is undeniably multipolar. Power is shared among contesting blocs. The US-China competition is most notable, shaping trade tensions, technological divisions, and alliances such as AUKUS (Australia, UK, US) and the Quad (US, India, Japan, Australia). AUKUS has broadened its scope from naval security to include technology cooperation. The Quad, on the other hand, has enhanced strategic collaboration in the Indo-Pacific. China’s aggressive moves, especially control of key supply chains, have increased tensions. This has compelled the US to deepen alliances with India, Japan, and South Korea. At the same time, Russia and Iran are testing Western strength. Russia’s moves in Ukraine and Iran’s proxy interventions in the Middle East are destabilising Europe and the wider world. Therefore, protectionism is on the rise, global markets are disintegrating, and supply chain breakdowns are common, particularly in semiconductors, rare earth elements, and strategic minerals. These strains have amplified geopolitical risk premiums, causing energy and commodity market volatilities and creating regional polarisations.

Resource Competition as Flashpoints. Scarcity of resources is a major source of geopolitical strain in 2025. China’s dominant hold on rare earth processing—more than 80% of the world supply—gives strategic vulnerabilities to Western countries that depend upon those commodities for electronics, green technology, and defence systems. The competition for energy has gained strength, particularly with Russia employing the use of gas supply as a bargaining chip and the volatile oil prices in the Middle East. Climate change is aggravating water scarcity, emerging as a palpable flashpoint, especially in Africa and the Middle East. Conflicts between Egypt, Ethiopia, and Sudan over the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam and Middle Eastern water shortages fuel political tensions. These are putting pressure on migration channels and over-stretching international aid systems. These are influencing resource flashpoints to emphasise the need for diversified supply chains and robust infrastructure to reduce geopolitical risks.

Hybrid Warfare and Non-State Actors. The wars of 2025 illustrate that hybrid warfare, which involves conventional military operations along with cyberattacks, propaganda, and the utilisation of drones, has become the primary nature of conflict. In Ukraine, Gaza, as well as the India-Pakistan standoff in April 2025, the methods have created a fusion of state and non-state actors. Non-state actors, such as private military companies and terrorist groups, are acquiring sophisticated technologies, frequently with the intermediation of major-power proxies. In the Red Sea, Houthis, with Iranian backing, have interrupted global supply chains. In the Sahel, uprisings in Mali and Niger are taking advantage of shortages of resources related to climate change and foreign assistance to challenge state control. These hybrid threats need adaptable defence approaches that can integrate cyber capabilities, physical means, and information tactics.

Regionalisation of Conflicts and Proxy Involvement. Local conflicts are spilling over into larger conflicts with support from influential nations. The April 2025 India-Pakistan tensions in Kashmir entailed quick mobilisation, artillery engagements, drone strikes, and cyber activities, fueled by external intelligence and arms supply, raising the nuclear spectre. In the Sahel, both the insurgencies in Niger and Mali, which are driven by climate challenges and poor governance, have attracted Russian and Western intervention, making stabilisation a complex challenge. The conflict between Israel and Hamas in Gaza involving Iranian and Yemeni surrogates has precipitated humanitarian disasters and undermined important trade lanes such as the Red Sea and Bab el-Mandeb Strait, showing the global resonance of regional wars.

Erosion of Multilateralism. Multilateral bodies such as the United Nations are finding it hard to operate under the current geopolitical tensions. The Security Council dynamics have disallowed rapid reactions in the Gaza and Ukraine crises, demonstrating the shortcomings of consensus-driven governance. When older methods lose potency, smaller configurations like AUKUS, the Quad, and the India-France-UAE trilateral are starting to prove themselves as workable options. Yet, these selective alignments further disintegrate global governance, and it becomes difficult to address interconnected challenges like climate change, conflicts, and economic instability.

Economic Warfare and Sanctions. Economic instruments like sanctions, currency intervention, export controls, and supply chain dislocation have become a staple in geopolitical competition. The Russia-Ukraine conflict revealed Europe’s energy vulnerabilities, with gas supply cutbacks fueling inflation. Middle East conflicts, particularly in Gaza, have resulted in oil price spikes and increases in global inflation. The weaponisation of currency, including China’s and Russia’s departures from the dollar, further polarises the world economy. These trends highlight the importance of multiple economic partners and robust supply chains to mitigate the effects of economic warfare.

Learnings from 2025 Conflicts

Speed of Escalation and Hybrid Threats. Conflicts in 2025 build rapidly from grey-zone operations—like cyber attacks and disinformation—to physical military responses, in some cases within days. The conflict in Ukraine and the India-Pakistan crisis demonstrate how hybrid threats involving drones, cyber operations, and disinformation raise the stakes, particularly in regions with nuclear powers. Non-state actors add to the complexity of accountability and response, making integrated defence planning critical to manage multi-domain threats.

Civil-Military Tech Convergence. The swift transition of commercial technologies to military applications has altered the face of war. Ukraine’s exploitation of low-cost, commercially procured drones against Russian forces underscores the need for adaptability as opposed to quantities. Likewise, drone strikes between India and Pakistan in 2025 underscore the need for hypersonic technology, AI-enabled targeting, and premium cybersecurity in multi-domain warfare. Such developments necessitate defence architectures prioritising smooth collaboration between civilian and military realms and fast-paced innovation.

Information Domain as a Decisive Battlefield. Shaping narratives and combating disinformation is important for winning strategically. Ukraine’s success in moulding world opinion using social media and open-source intel is a blueprint for successful information operations. In Gaza, the application of sophisticated technologies has minimised casualties among civilians and preserved the support of allies, exemplifying the necessity of an interdisciplinary strategy of information and combat operations to shape legitimacy and diplomatic results.

Logistics Under Fire. Global conflicts have exposed vulnerabilities in supply chains, with specific attacks on fuel depots, rail infrastructures, and electronic inventory breaking operations. Ukraine’s distributed logistics model, depending on diverse supply routes, has served its military operations against sanctions and blockades. This indicates the necessity of resilient, distributed logistics systems for maintaining operational continuity under adverse conditions.

Electronic Warfare and Counter-Drone Operations. Electronic warfare and counter-drone technologies have become a must. In Ukraine, jamming and signal interference tactics have nullified Russian drone activities. Urban combat in Gaza highlights the need for dependable communication in urban centers. Nations must invest in convergent electronic warfare, counter-drone, and cybersecurity competencies to counter emerging threats in sophisticated electronic environments.

Humanitarian and Ethical Considerations. Minimising mistakes among non-combatants is essential. The Gaza and Ukrainian conflicts underscore the importance of precision technologies and moral principles. Allowing force size variations, modernisation, and preparedness demands adaptive forces that can reform toward humanitarian and operational demands quickly. Morality in war is more closely associated with success in strategy since killing civilians might erode legitimacy and result in global sanctions.

Preparing for Peer-to-Peer Conflicts. Analysis based on US-China wargaming and India-Pakistan interactions emphasises the need for enhanced air and missile defences against hypersonic and mass drone threats. US Government Accountability Office reports indicate optimal practices for overcoming these challenges, including AI-based detection and modular defence systems. India’s swift introduction of Akash-NG and S-400 systems indicates a priority for countering peer country threats.

Defence Modernisation Trends

Acceleration of AI-Driven Command & Control.  The inculcation of AI in command, control, communications, computers, intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance systems is advancing rapidly. Real-time targeting, predictive analytics, and cross-domain integration are enriching decision-making in high-intensity conflicts. India’s AI roadmap for 2025-27 prioritises surveillance, cyber defence, and autonomous systems, in line with AI-driven warfare global trends.

Unmanned Systems Proliferation. The expansion and diversity of unmanned systems—drones, unmanned underwater vehicles, and loitering munitions—are developing at a fast pace. Ukraine’s utilisation of cheap drones against more powerful forces proves the utility of swarm tactics and artificial intelligence technology. Countries are emphasising mass production, redundancy, and flexibility in distributed operations to engage numerically superior adversaries.

Resilient Communications and Quantum-Encrypted Networks. Secure jam-resistant communication networks are vital with increasing electronic warfare threats. Quantum encryption holds out a potential answer to counter cyber intrusions. India’s focus on indigenous cybersecurity development is in sync with international pushes towards robust command-and-control networks and maintaining operational continuity in the midst of war.

Integrated Air & Missile Defence Enhancements. Developments in defending against hypersonic missiles and swarms of drones are essential. AI-based radar platforms, modular interceptors, and networked sensors enable faster reaction times. India, combining Akash-NG with Russian S-400 systems, along with practices that the Government Accountability Office has proposed, demonstrates a layered defence against a range of airborne threats.

Distributed and Modular Force Structures. Greater, fixed sizes of units are being supplanted by smaller, networked ones, which can be rapidly redeployed. Modular force structures allow flexible organisation of tasks, and theatre commands facilitate joint operations. India’s initiative of local defence manufacturing and theatre-level integration is in tune with a worldwide trend towards technology-enabled, agile military forces.

Rapid Production & Fielding Through Modular Manufacturing. Accelerating research and development to deployment is imperative in the quest for staying competitive. Industry 5.0 converges AI, advanced robots, and human-machine interaction to enable modular manufacturing. India’s Production-Linked Incentive programs seek scalable manufacturing of drones and AI systems, tracking global initiatives toward quick, flexible manufacturing.

Conclusion

The 2025 geopolitical trends, fueled by rivalry between several powers, resource depletion, and hybrid warfare, have transformed global security. Ukraine, Gaza, and Kashmir conflicts display the velocity of escalation, the role of information control, and the requirement of robust logistics and communications. Defence modernisation is progressing at a fast pace, with systems that embrace AI, unmanned systems, and modular forces taking the forefront. States have to focus on agility, convergence of technologies, and morality to combat the complexity of contemporary threats. With the global system continuing to break apart, the 2025 lessons reinforce the importance of flexible, robust, and creative defence approaches towards guaranteed security in a world that is uncertain.

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