Category: warfare

Posted on

249: UKRAINE WAR: MAYBE THE BIRTH OF A NEW GLOBAL MONETARY ORDER

Pic courtesy: The Borgen Project (Internet)

 

Western Sanctions on Russia

 

  • The United States and European Union have frozen nearly half the Russian central bank’s $640-billion foreign exchange reserves held in banks outside Russia.

 

  • Russian companies have been debarred from doing transactions in dollars and euros.

 

  • 400 odd western firms have closed operations in Russia.

 

  • A majority of the Russian banks have been cut off from the SWIFT (Society for Worldwide Interbank Financial Telecommunication), which executes financial transactions and payments among banks worldwide.

 

Expected results

 

  • The sanctions and curbs were expected to result in a big sell-off of the rouble.

 

  • It was expected to create insolvency risks for the Russian economy.

 

Rouble Performance

  • The rouble was trading at around 76 before the invasion.

 

  • It went down to a record low of 139 on March 7.

 

  • The rouble appreciated to 83 to the dollar intraday on 29 Mar.

 

  • The rouble has recouped most of its losses.

 

Sanction Effect (So Far)

 

Considering the severity of European and American sanctions on Russia, the effect on the rouble is modest. The recovery in the rouble suggests that the impact of the West’s economic sanctions is much lower than anticipated.

 

Likely reasons

 

  • European countries continue to buy oil and gas from Russia. The European Union gets 40 percent of its natural gas from Russia.

 

  • Major emerging markets (including China) continue to trade with Russia.

 

  • The biggest jump in the rouble occurred when the Russian president announced that unfriendly countries (EU, USA, Canada, Australia, New Zealand, Japan, South Korea, and Taiwan) would have to pay in roubles. This increased the demand for the rouble.

 

Implications

 

  • Energy Crisis. The sanctions on Russia might lead to a global energy crisis.

 

  • This could be the beginning of the de-dollarisation of global trade, especially in oil and gas.

 

  • This could be the beginning of a new global monetary order.

 

  • The new monetary order could be based on commodity-based currencies.

 

  • This would weaken the Eurodollar system.

 

It is wait and watch for long term repercussions.

 

Bottom Line

It is all about Money.

 

Question

Is this the end of the Petro-Dollar?

 

Suggestions and value additions are most welcome

 

Links to previous posts on Ukraine war:

USE OR NON USE OF AIRPOWER IN UKRAINE WAR

UKRAINE CRISIS & INDIA (02 FEB 22)

RUSSIA – UKRAINE CRISIS BLOWS UP: 24 FEB 22

UKRAINE CRISIS: A GAME OF DOG AND THE BONE

RUSSIA – UKRAINE CRISIS ESCALATES (24 FEB 22)

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References and Credits

To all the online news channels.

Posted on

246: USE OR NON USE OF AIRPOWER IN UKRAINE WAR

 

A comprehensive discussion on the subject

 

 

Issues discussed and links for selective viewing

 

  • Perspective (Upto 05:00).
    • Understanding Air Power
    • Disparity between Russia and Ukraine Air Force
    • Russian Aims and Objectives.
    • Truth as first Casualty: Claims and counter claims.

 

 

 

 

  • Air Superiority (32:05 to 40:45).
    • Most misunderstood term.
    • Distorted due to one sided air wars of USA.
    • Air Supremacy / Air Superiority / Favourable Air Situation.
    • Degree depending on area, duration and extent.

 

  • No Fly Zone (40:45 to 47:40)
    • Easier said then done. 
    • Needs where with all and will to implement.
    • Western Reluctance.
    • What if Russia declares NFZ (Specially in Western Ukraine).

 

 

 

  • Lessons related to warfare (01:03:55 to 01:08:10).
    • Clearly defined Aims and Objectives.
    • Importance of Morale, Training and Tactics.
    • Info warfare
    • Importance of Deterrence and Strategic Coercion.
    • Legitimacy and World Opinion.
    • Joint Warfare.
    • Importance of ISR and Int Sharing

 

  • Lessons related to Air Power(01:08:10 Onwards)
    • Offensive Nature.
    • Effect based Operations.
    • All weather day and night capability.
    • No Fly Zones.
    • Importance of Stand off and Precision Capability.
    • Vulnerability of Air borne / Heli Borne  Operations.

 

Random Thoughts

Winner in these wars is the defence Industry.

 

Question

When and how will this war end?

 

Coming Up: Likely End State and Long Term repercussions.

 

 

Suggestions and value additions are most welcome

 

 

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References and credits

To all the online news channels.

 

Posted on

244: Vayu Shakti (Fire Power Demo)

 

VAYU SHAKTI: CAPABILITY-BASED IAF EXERCISE

 

Exercise Vayu Shakti was to be held on 07 Mar 22 at Pokharan air to ground range near Jaisalmer air force station.

Unfortunately it has been called off.

This exercise is a display of the capabilities of the Indian Air Force.

 

Curtain Raiser

https://youtu.be/G5J2yUDMZDk

 

 Display of IAF Capability. It is a display of IAF’s capability to influence events on the ground (in a war). It showcases   the ability to hit hard, hit fast and hit with precision, hit during the day, hit during night, and hit under adverse weather conditions.

  • Display of capability of full-spectrum operations.
  • Display of ability to destroy targets.
  • Display of ability for punitive action.
  • Display of aerial platforms (Fighters, helicopters, Combat support ac. AWACS and Unmanned platforms.
  • Display of indigenous equipment.
  • Display of a variety of weapons and their effect.
  • Display of precision capability.
  • Display of lethality.
  • Display of ability for quick insertion and extrication of troops & special forces.
  • Display of ground attack and air defence capability.
  • Display of HADR capability.

 

Long Association

I was lucky to have been associated with this exercise, for a long time and at various ranks, while in the IAF. 

  • As a junior officer participated in the firepower demonstration exercises, firing weapons from Mig-21 and Jaguar aircraft.
  • Commanded Air force Station Jaisalmer (2005-06). As Station commander was deeply involved with the conduct of a joint Army and Air Force exercise “Ex Desert Strike”, that took place in Nov 2005.
  • As DGAO was involved with the conduct and review of the exercise Vayu shakti 2016.
  • As VCAS was involved and reviewed exercise Vayu shakti 2019.

 

Vayu Shakti 2019: (Trying and Tiring Times)

Vayu Shakti 2019 was conducted in Feb 2019, during very tense times, post terrorist attack at Pulwama. 40 of our brave hearts were martyred during these attacks. Feeling of sorrow, disgust and anger were prevalent, not only amongst the military but entire nation. On 14 Feb 2019, I (as VCAS) was at Jaisalmer reviewing the progress of preparation for exercise Vayu Shakti. On receiving the news of terrorist attack, I headed back to Delhi. The next few days were depressingly busy, with overseeing the staff coordinating the last journey and last rights of the martyrs.

 

Also the process of decision making for appropriate response to the ghastly incident was also in progress. Use of Air power was chosen for the first time and planning for “Operation Bandar” against the terrorist camp at Balkot commenced.  Decision was also taken that the all planned activities would continue as planned. Even other activities like Aero India air show (20 – 24 Feb 19) and planned inauguration of the War memorial (on 25 Feb 19), with fly past were conducted as planned.  

Op Staff at Air HQ had many a sleepless nights during those two weeks.

In this back drop the exercise Vayu Shakti was conducted and was a great success as expected.

 

Press Conference: Feb 2019

Three years have flown by.
Questions and Answers are still relevant.

 

 Suggestions and value additions are most welcome

 

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