Category: Geo-politics

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707: TURKEY’S TANGO WITH INDIA’S NEIGHBORS A STRATEGIC DANCE WITH REGIONAL IMPLICATIONS

 

My Article published on the “Indus International Research Foundation” website on 18 Jul 25.

 

In the grand theater of global geopolitics, alliances and rivalries shape the dynamics of diplomacy. Over the past decade, Turkey under President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan has pursued an increasingly assertive foreign policy that extends well beyond its traditional spheres of influence. One of the most intriguing and consequential elements of this strategy is Turkey’s deepening engagement with India’s neighbours. Turkey’s relations with India’s immediate neighbours form a complex web of strategic, military, economic, and ideological engagements. Turkey has pursued a neo-Ottoman foreign policy, leveraging historical ties, Islamic solidarity, and defence exports to expand its influence in South Asia. This “strategic tango” has significant implications for South Asia’s balance of power, particularly from New Delhi’s perspective.

 

Turkey and Pakistan: Ideological Brotherhood beyond Diplomacy

The relationship between Turkey and Pakistan is characterised by its closeness and growing complexity, grounded in a shared Islamic identity, historical connections, and reciprocal geopolitical backing. Under the leadership of Erdoğan, these ties have developed into a strong strategic partnership.

The two nations have engaged in collaboration concerning military training, defence manufacturing, and joint naval exercises. Turkey ranks as Pakistan’s second-largest arms supplier, following China, providing sophisticated military equipment, including Bayraktar TB2 and Asisguard Songar drones, corvettes, missile systems, and enhancements for Pakistan’s F-16 fleet. These exports have strengthened Pakistan’s military capabilities, notably in drone warfare, which constitutes an increasing concern for India along the Line of Control (LoC) and other unstable border regions. During the recent India-Pakistan conflict (Operation Sindoor), reports suggest Turkey supplied Pakistan with between 300 and 400 drones, along with other military assistance, thereby intensifying tensions.

Turkey has also supported Pakistan’s stance on Kashmir, frequently raising the issue at the United Nations and other international forums. Ankara has consistently condemned India’s 2019 abrogation of Article 370, which nullified the special status of Jammu and Kashmir, and has articulated this position at various international platforms, including the United Nations. Conversely, Pakistan endorses Turkey on issues such as the Cyprus dispute and Azerbaijan’s stance in the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict, thereby reinforcing their strategic alliance.

By clearly aligning with Pakistan on a sensitive bilateral matter, Turkey has indicated its readiness to confront India on the international stage. This has led to a strong Indian reaction, with tourism bookings to Turkey decreasing by 60% and cancellations increasing by 250% in 2025, along with calls for trade boycotts.

 

Bangladesh: Growing Engagement and Deepening Ties.

Turkey’s diplomatic relations with Bangladesh have markedly strengthened, primarily due to defence collaboration and economic prospects. Ankara has employed a strategic approach incorporating humanitarian assistance, cultural diplomacy, and religious outreach to foster rapport with Dhaka. The Turkish Cooperation and Coordination Agency (TIKA) has been actively engaged in Bangladesh, financing educational institutions, healthcare facilities, and infrastructure developments. Furthermore, the administration of President Erdoğan has adopted a firm stance regarding the Rohingya crisis, providing refuge to displaced persons and vocally criticising Myanmar’s policies. This stance aligns closely with the perspectives held by Bangladesh.

Bangladesh has reportedly acquired Turkish Bayraktar TB2 drones. These drones, whilst augmenting Bangladesh’s military capabilities, evoke concerns in India regarding their possible deployment along the shared 4,096-kilometre border. Economically, Turkey has actively engaged with Bangladesh through trade and infrastructure initiatives, capitalising on Dhaka’s expanding economy and strategic positioning. Turkey’s neo-Ottoman ambitions align with certain political factions within Bangladesh, notably those sympathetic to Islamist rhetoric, thereby further fortifying bilateral relations.

This ideological alignment, coupled with defence cooperation, has raised concerns in New Delhi, which fears that Turkey’s influence could destabilise its eastern neighbourhood.

 

Emerging Engagements With Other Neighbours

Turkey has also expanded its focus to smaller South Asian nations, including Nepal, Sri Lanka, Bhutan, Myanmar, and the Maldives. These countries, often overlooked in global strategic considerations, possess significant geopolitical importance due to their strategic locations and vulnerability to external influences.

In Nepal, Turkey’s influence is predominantly diplomatic and cultural. Ankara has increased its embassy presence, provided scholarships, and facilitated interfaith dialogue through its Diyanet Foundation. Although not explicitly political, these initiatives form part of Turkey’s broader strategy to extend its influence via cultural engagement and religious diplomacy.

Turkey’s engagements with Sri Lanka are less pronounced but strategically significant. Turkey has pursued economic ties and limited defence cooperation, including potential drone exports. In Bhutan, Turkey’s presence is primarily economic, with investments in infrastructure and trade.

Myanmar, notwithstanding its political instability, has experienced Turkey’s outreach through humanitarian aid and limited defence negotiations, capitalising on shared Islamic affiliations with specific communities. Although these efforts are less advanced than those with Pakistan and Bangladesh, they demonstrate Turkey’s broader strategy to augment its presence in India’s vicinity.

The Maldives, a small island nation located in the Indian Ocean, has attracted interest from numerous international actors, including China, India, and currently Turkey. The government led by Erdoğan has enhanced bilateral engagements and extended development aid. As the archipelago increasingly assumes a pivotal position in the contest for influence within the Indian Ocean, Turkey’s engagement signifies its aspiration to participate actively in regional maritime geopolitics.

 

The China Factor: Converging Interests, Diverging Identities

While not a neighbour in the strict sense, China has a significant influence on India’s strategic outlook and is becoming increasingly important for Turkey as well. Ankara and Beijing share common viewpoints in criticising Western dominance and promoting multipolarity. Turkey participates in China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), though with varying enthusiasm. Economic needs have motivated Erdoğan to pursue Chinese investment, especially during Turkey’s ongoing financial instability.

Nevertheless, the relationship encounters some friction. Turkey has historically been a vocal critic of China’s treatment of the Uighurs, a Turkic Muslim minority in Xinjiang. Erdoğan previously characterised Chinese policies as “genocide,” although such rhetoric has become less prominent in recent years as economic pragmatism has gained precedence.

From India’s perspective, Turkey’s ties with China heighten concerns. Both nations have shown a readiness to oppose India on Kashmir and support Pakistan. Although their ideological bases differ—Turkey with its neo-Ottoman and Islamist inclinations, and China with its authoritarian state capitalism—their strategic interests sometimes align, especially in efforts to counter Indian influence.

 

Strategic Implications for India

Turkey’s neo-Ottoman ambitions, propelled by President Erdoğan’s vision of global Islamic leadership, frequently conflict with India’s secular, multipolar foreign policy. Turkey’s increasing engagement with India’s neighbouring countries carries strategic implications that New Delhi must carefully consider. Although Turkey does not possess the economic strength or geographical proximity to directly challenge India, its ideological assertiveness and alignment with adversarial interests render it a disruptive presence in South Asia.

Ankara’s vocal endorsement of Pakistan regarding Kashmir elevates the issue to an international level, countering India’s stance that it is a bilateral matter. This not only strengthens Pakistan’s position but also offers diplomatic protection for narratives that contest India’s territorial sovereignty.

The Turkey-Pakistan alliance, fortified through defence cooperation and shared stances on issues such as Kashmir, remains highly contentious. Turkey’s provision of advanced weapons, including drones and naval equipment, boosts Pakistan’s military strength, directly challenging India’s security along its western border. Additionally, Turkey’s defence collaborations with Bangladesh and the Maldives pose a threat to India’s influence in South Asia and the Indian Ocean Region.

Turkey’s soft power efforts, particularly in Muslim-majority areas, aim to establish Ankara as a leader within the Islamic world. This contrasts with India’s approach, which focuses on building ties with Muslim-majority nations through economic and developmental partnerships, rather than religious solidarity.

Turkey’s growing collaboration with China and Pakistan may constitute a loose yet influential axis characterised by common objectives to curtail Indian influence. While the establishment of a formal alliance appears improbable, convergences on particular issues, such as opposing India’s ascent or supporting anti-Indian narratives, could pose a persistent strategic challenge.

 

India’s Options

In response to Turkey’s assertiveness, India needs to adopt a multifaceted strategy. India’s displeasure needs to be signalled by reducing high-level diplomatic exchanges, and through economic levers such as trade and tourism advisories. Another option is to strengthen ties with countries that view Turkish policies with suspicion. Enhancement of defence and economic cooperation with Greece, Armenia, Cyprus, Israel, and the United Arab Emirates (UAE) would convey the right message. Closer at home, India needs to leverage its cultural diplomacy, economic strength, and infrastructure investments to counter Turkish influence in neighbouring countries. Initiatives like the BIMSTEC (Bay of Bengal Initiative for Multi-Sectoral Technical and Economic Cooperation) and the Indo-Pacific outreach provide platforms that could be used to build alternative narratives to Ankara’s Islamic solidarity approach.

Conclusion

Turkey’s strategic engagement with its neighbours in South Asia, often described metaphorically as a Tango, appears to be more than mere diplomatic manoeuvring. It seems to constitute a deliberate effort to reshape regional alliances and enhance Ankara’s influence within the Muslim world and beyond. For India, this diplomatic dance presents both a challenge and an opportunity: a challenge to its strategic environment and regional influence, and an opportunity to refine its diplomatic strategies and foster resilient partnerships. India must navigate these intricate geopolitical developments with vigilance to safeguard its regional interests. By fortifying its alliances and leveraging its economic and military capacities, India should endeavour to ensure that Turkey’s actions do not destabilise the delicate balance of power in South Asia.

 

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Turkey’s Tango with India’s Neighbours: A Strategic Dance with Regional Implications

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Disclaimer:

Information and data included in the blog are for educational & non-commercial purposes only and have been carefully adapted, excerpted, or edited from reliable and accurate sources. All copyrighted material belongs to respective owners and is provided only for wider dissemination.

 

 

References:-

 

  1. Hindu, T. (2025, March 10). India Sees 60% Drop in Tourism to Turkey Amid Kashmir Tensions.
  2. Dawn. (2025, February 15). Turkey Supplies 300–400 Drones to Pakistan During Operation Sindoor, Sources Say.
  3. Jane’s Defence Weekly. (2024, November 20). Turkey’s Defence Exports to Pakistan: Bayraktar TB2 and Beyond.
  4. Ministry of External Affairs, India. (2024). India’s Response to Turkey’s Stance on Kashmir at the UN. New Delhi: Government of India.
  5. Reuters. (2025, January 5). Bangladesh Acquires Turkish TB2 Drones, Raising Concerns in India.
  6. Sharma, A. (2023). Turkey’s Neo-Ottoman Ambitions in South Asia. New Delhi: Observer Research Foundation.
  7. Siddiqui, N. (2024). Pakistan-Turkey Strategic Partnership: Defence and Diplomacy. Islamabad: Institute of Strategic Studies.
  8. Times of India. (2025, April 2). 250% Surge in Cancellations of Turkey Travel Bookings After Operation Sindoor.
  9. Yilmaz, I., & Shakil, K. (2023). Turkey’s Foreign Policy Under Erdoğan: The Rise of Neo-Ottomanism. Journal of South Asian Studies, 46(3), 231–245.
  10. The Diplomat. (2023). Turkey’s Growing Footprint in South Asia: Soft Power or Strategic Intent?

 

  1. Asia Foundation. (2022). Turkey’s Soft Power Diplomacy in Bangladesh and the Rohingya Crisis.

 

  1. Pantucci, R. (2022). China-Turkey Relations: A New Axis of Authoritarian Influence? Royal United Services Institute (RUSI).
  1. Sharma, R. (2021). India’s Strategic Realignment in the Eastern Mediterranean: Balancing Turkey’s Outreach. Institute of Peace and Conflict Studies (IPCS).

 

  1. Kugelman, M. (2020). Turkey and Pakistan: A Budding Strategic Alliance? Wilson Center.

 

  1. Anadolu Agency. (2020). Erdoğan Says Kashmir Is as Important to Turkey as It Is to Pakistan.

 

  1. Raja Mohan, C. (2020). The Rise of Turkey in Asia: A Challenge to India’s Regional Position? Carnegie India.
  1. Yavuz, M. H., & Hakan, M. (2019). Erdoğan’s Vision and the Transformation of Turkish Foreign Policy. Middle East Critique, 28(3), 217–232.
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703: CHANGING CHARACTER OF CONFLICTS: CHALLENGES TO PEACE OPERATIONS AND INTERNATIONAL HUMANITARIAN LAW

 

My article was published in the July 2025  edition of the “Life of Soldier” journal.

 

The nature of armed conflicts has undergone profound transformations over the past century, reshaping the challenges faced by peace operations and the application of International Humanitarian Law (IHL). From the trench warfare of World War I to the hybrid and non-state conflicts of the 21st century, the evolving character of warfare has introduced complexities that strain traditional frameworks for peacekeeping, conflict resolution, and humanitarian protection. There is a need to explore the shifting dynamics of modern conflicts, their implications for peace operations, and the pressures they exert on IHL while highlighting the need for adaptive strategies to ensure effective responses to contemporary crises.

 

The Evolution of Conflict

Historically, conflicts were predominantly interstate wars, characterised by clear battle lines, state armies, and defined objectives, such as territorial conquest or ideological dominance. The two World Wars exemplified this model, with nations mobilising resources and populations for large-scale, conventional warfare. However, since the mid-20th century, the character of conflicts has shifted dramatically. Intrastate conflicts, insurgencies, and asymmetric warfare have become more prevalent, driven by ethnic, religious, or political grievances, often exacerbated by economic inequality or resource scarcity.

The rise of non-state actors, terrorist organisations, militias, and criminal networks has further complicated the landscape. Groups like ISIS, Boko Haram, or the Wagner Group operate outside traditional state structures, employing tactics that blur the lines between combatants and civilians. These actors often exploit ungoverned spaces, leveraging technology like drones or encrypted communications to amplify their impact. Additionally, hybrid warfare, combining conventional military operations with cyber attacks, disinformation campaigns, and economic coercion, has emerged as a hallmark of modern conflicts.

Urbanisation has also transformed conflict zones. By 2050, an estimated 68% of the global population will live in cities, making urban areas the epicenters of violence. Urban warfare, as witnessed in Aleppo, Mosul, or Gaza, involves complex environments where combatants and civilians coexist, increasing the risk of collateral damage and complicating military operations. Climate change further exacerbates these dynamics, fuelling resource-based conflicts over water, arable land, or energy, particularly in vulnerable regions like the Sahel or South Asia.

 

Challenges to Peace Operations

Peace operations, encompassing peacekeeping, peace building, and conflict prevention, have struggled to adapt to these evolving conflict dynamics. Traditionally, United Nations (UN) peacekeeping missions were designed for interstate conflicts, with mandates to monitor ceasefires or separate belligerents. However, modern missions, such as those in Mali (MINUSMA) or the Democratic Republic of Congo (MONUSCO), operate in environments without apparent peace, facing protracted insurgencies, fragmented armed groups, and weak state institutions.

Mandate and Capability Gaps. Contemporary peace operations often receive ambitious mandates, such as protecting civilians, supporting state-building, or countering terrorism, that exceed available resources and capabilities. For instance, the UN mission in South Sudan (UNMISS) has been tasked with protecting civilians amid ongoing violence. Yet, it lacks the mobility, intelligence, or firepower to deter well-armed militias effectively. The mismatch between mandates and means undermines mission credibility and exposes peacekeepers to attacks, as seen in the rising number of fatalities in Mali and the Central African Republic.

Peace Keeping to Peace Enforcement. Moreover, the principle of impartiality, a cornerstone of traditional peacekeeping, is increasingly untenable in asymmetric conflicts. When peacekeepers confront non-state actors who reject negotiated settlements, maintaining neutrality can appear complicit, alienating local populations or governments. Robust mandates, such as those authorising “all necessary means” to protect civilians, have pushed peacekeeping toward peace enforcement, blurring the line between neutral intervention and active combat.

Protection of Civilians. Protecting civilians in modern conflicts is a central challenge. Non-state actors frequently target civilians to sow fear or destabilise communities, as seen in Boko Haram’s attacks on schools or ISIS’s mass executions. Urban warfare compounds this issue, with densely populated areas becoming battlegrounds where distinguishing combatants from non-combatants is nearly impossible. Often underequipped and outnumbered, peacekeepers struggle to fulfil protection mandates, leading to criticism and loss of trust among local populations.

Weapons Proliferation. The proliferation of small arms and improvised explosive devices (IEDs) further complicates civilian protection. In Mali, IED attacks on peacekeepers and civilians have surged, with over 200 UN personnel killed since 2013. These tactics, combined with the use of human shields, erode the ability of peace operations to secure safe zones or deliver humanitarian aid.

Coordination and Local Engagement. Effective peace operations require coordination among diverse actors, UN agencies, and regional organisations like the African Union (AU), non-governmental organisations (NGOs), and local stakeholders. Yet, fragmented mandates and competing priorities often hinder collaboration. For example, in Somalia, the AU’s AMISOM mission has operated alongside UN support operations and bilateral counterterrorism efforts, leading to overlapping roles and inefficiencies.

Winning Trust. Engaging local communities is equally critical but challenging. Cultural misunderstandings, perceptions of foreign interference, or reliance on unrepresentative local elites can undermine mission legitimacy. In Haiti, the UN’s MINUSTAH mission (2004–2017) faced backlash after a cholera outbreak linked to peacekeepers, highlighting how operational missteps can erode trust.

Pressures on International Humanitarian Law. IHL, rooted in the Geneva Conventions of 1949 and their Additional Protocols, seeks to regulate armed conflicts by protecting civilians, prisoners, and wounded combatants while limiting the means and methods of warfare. However, the changing character of conflicts has exposed gaps in IHL’s application and enforcement, raising questions about its relevance in modern warfare.

Distinction and Proportionality. The principle of distinction requiring parties to differentiate between combatants and civilians is increasingly difficult to uphold. Non-state actors often operate without uniforms, blending into civilian populations or using civilian infrastructure for military purposes. In Gaza, Hamas’s use of tunnels beneath hospitals or schools has sparked debates over whether such sites lose their protected status under IHL. Similarly, state actors employing precision-guided munitions, as seen in U.S. drone strikes, face scrutiny over proportionality when civilian casualties occur despite targeted intentions.

Emerging Technologies. New technologies, drones, autonomous weapons, and cyber attacks pose unprecedented challenges to IHL. Drones, used extensively in Yemen and Ukraine, enable precise strikes but also facilitate extrajudicial killings or errors when intelligence is faulty. Autonomous weapons, still in development, raise questions about accountability: who is responsible when a machine decides to kill? IHL’s existing frameworks, designed for human decision-making, struggle to address these scenarios.

Cyber warfare. Cyber warfare further complicates IHL’s application. Attacks on critical infrastructure, like the 2020 cyber strike on Iran’s nuclear facilities, can disrupt civilian life without physical destruction, challenging traditional notions of “attack” under IHL. The absence of explicit norms for cyber operations leaves a regulatory void, risking escalation and civilian harm.

Accountability and Enforcement. Enforcing IHL remains a persistent challenge. The International Criminal Court (ICC) and ad hoc tribunals have prosecuted war crimes, but their reach is limited. Powerful states often shield themselves or allies from scrutiny, while non-state actors are challenging to prosecute due to their amorphous structures. For example, despite allegations of war crimes in Syria, including chemical weapons use, accountability has been stymied by geopolitical vetoes in the UN Security Council. The politicisation of humanitarian access exacerbates impunity. In Yemen, both Houthi rebels and the Saudi-led coalition have obstructed aid deliveries, violating IHL obligations to facilitate humanitarian relief. Such actions highlight the gap between legal norms and battlefield realities, undermining IHL’s credibility.

 

Adapting to the Future

Addressing the challenges posed by modern conflicts requires innovative approaches to peace operations and IHL. For peace operations, this means aligning mandates with realistic capabilities, investing in training and technology, and prioritising local engagement. Regional organisations, like the AU or ASEAN, can play a more significant role, leveraging their contextual knowledge to complement UN efforts. Partnerships with private sector actors, such as tech firms, could enhance intelligence-gathering or counter disinformation, though ethical risks must be managed.

For IHL, adaptation involves updating legal frameworks to address emerging technologies and hybrid threats. An international consensus on regulating autonomous weapons and cyber attacks is urgently needed, potentially through new protocols or treaties. Strengthening accountability mechanisms, such as hybrid tribunals or expanded ICC jurisdiction, could deter violations, while public advocacy and education can reinforce IHL’s normative power.

The need for prevention crosses both domains. Early warning systems, conflict-sensitive development, and climate adaptation can mitigate the root causes of violence, reducing the burden on peace operations and IHL. Though strained by great-power rivalries, multilateral cooperation remains essential to address global threats like terrorism or resource conflicts.

 

Conclusion

The changing character of conflicts, marked by non-state actors, urban warfare, hybrid tactics, and technological advancements, has profoundly challenged peace operations and International Humanitarian Law. Peacekeeping missions grapple with unrealistic mandates, civilian protection failures, and coordination gaps, while IHL struggles to regulate new forms of warfare and ensure accountability. Yet, these challenges also present opportunities for reform. By aligning resources with goals, embracing innovation, and fostering global cooperation, the international community can strengthen its ability to manage conflicts and uphold humanitarian principles. In an era of uncertainty, the resilience of peace operations and IHL will depend on their capacity to evolve alongside the conflicts they seek to address, ensuring that the pursuit of peace and justice remains a cornerstone of global order.

 

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References and credits

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Disclaimer:

Information and data included in the blog are for educational & non-commercial purposes only and have been carefully adapted, excerpted, or edited from reliable and accurate sources. All copyrighted material belongs to respective owners and is provided only for wider dissemination.

 

 

References:-

  1. International Committee of the Red Cross (ICRC). International Humanitarian Law and the Challenges of Contemporary Armed Conflicts. ICRC Report, 2019.
  1. United Nations. A New Agenda for Peace: Preventing Conflict, Building Peace, and Strengthening Multilateralism. UN Report, 2023.
  1. Geneva Academy. Rules of Engagement: Protecting Civilians in Peacekeeping Operations. Geneva Academy Report, 2022.
  1. Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI). Peace Operations and Conflict Management Report 2023. SIPRI Report, 2023.
  1. Bellamy, Alex J., and Paul D. Williams. Understanding Peacekeeping. Polity Press, 3rd ed., 2021.
  1. Karlsrud, John. The UN at War: Peace Operations in a New Era of Conflict. Palgrave Macmillan, 2017.
  1. Hultman, Lisa, Jacob Kathman, and Megan Shannon. “United Nations Peacekeeping Dynamics and the Duration of Post-Civil War Peace.” International Studies Quarterly, vol. 60, no. 2, 2016, pp. 229-244.
  1. Autesserre, Séverine. Peaceland: Conflict Resolution and the Everyday Politics of International Intervention. Cambridge University Press, 2014.
  1. Schmitt, Michael N., ed. Tallinn Manual on the International Law Applicable to Cyber Warfare. Cambridge University Press, 2013.
  1. Kilcullen, David. Out of the Mountains: The Coming Age of the Urban Guerrilla. Oxford University Press, 2013.
  1. Kaldor, Mary. New and Old Wars: Organized Violence in a Global Era. Stanford University Press, 2012.
  1. Hoffman, Frank G. “Hybrid Warfare and Challenges to International Law.” Naval War College Review, vol. 64, no. 4, 2011, pp. 29-50.

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699: WEST ASIAN TENSIONS IMPACTING EURASIA

 

Article for the “Center of Excellence for Geopolitics and International Studies” website of  Reva University on 08 Jul 25.

 

The West Asia has long been a crucible of geopolitical strife, with its conflicts reverberating far beyond its borders. In 2025, escalating tensions in the region, driven by a volatile mix of sectarian rivalries, resource competition, and great power interventions, continue to reshape the political, economic, and security landscape of Eurasia. From energy markets to migration flows, and trade routes to diplomatic alignments, the ripple effects of West Asian instability are profoundly felt across the vast Eurasian supercontinent, influencing both regional powers and global dynamics.

 

Energy Market Disruptions. The West Asia remains a linchpin of the global energy supply, with countries such as Saudi Arabia, Iran, and Iraq holding significant portions of the world’s oil and gas reserves. Tensions, particularly between Iran and its Gulf neighbours, have repeatedly threatened key chokepoints, such as the Strait of Hormuz, through which roughly 20% of global oil passes. Recent escalations have driven oil prices higher, with Brent crude currently hovering around $95-100 per barrel as of mid-2025. This volatility directly impacts the economies of Eurasia, particularly energy-hungry nations like China and India, which rely heavily on West Asian oil.

 

Trade Routes and Supply Chain Vulnerabilities. The West Asia’s strategic geography makes it a crucial node in Eurasian trade networks, particularly in the context of the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). Conflicts in the region, such as the ongoing Israel-Palestinian/Iran crisis and Houthi attacks in the Red Sea, threaten maritime routes like the Suez Canal, through which 12% of global trade flows. Houthi drone and missile strikes on shipping in 2024-2025 have forced rerouting around the Cape of Good Hope, increasing costs and delays for goods moving between Asia and Europe. This has prompted China to bolster overland BRI routes through Central Asia.

 

Migration and Humanitarian Crises. West Asian conflicts have driven waves of migration, with profound implications for the Eurasian region. The Syrian civil war continues to push refugees into Turkey. In 2025, renewed violence in Iraq and Yemen has triggered fresh displacement, with refugees and asylum seekers moving not only westward but also eastward into Central Asia and South Asia. Pakistan and Iran, already hosting millions of Afghan refugees, face additional pressures, exacerbating resource scarcity and ethnic tensions. The humanitarian toll also diverts resources from development projects.

 

Security and Geopolitical Realignments. West Asian tensions are reshaping Eurasian security dynamics, prompting major powers to recalibrate their strategies in response. Russia, a key player in both regions, leverages its military presence in Syria to project power while deepening ties with Iran. This alignment, however, alienates Turkey and complicates Moscow’s relations with Sunni-majority states like Saudi Arabia. Meanwhile, China’s non-interventionist stance is tested as it seeks to protect its investments in the Middle East and Central Asia, leading to cautious military cooperation with regional powers. The U.S., while reducing its West Asian footprint, remains a pivotal actor through alliances with Israel and the GCC.

 

The Broader Eurasian Impact. The interplay of these factors creates a feedback loop that destabilises Eurasia. Regional powers, such as Turkey, Iran, and India, are often forced to adapt, often at the expense of their domestic priorities. Smaller Eurasian states, particularly in Central Asia, face heightened risks of being drawn into great power rivalries or extremist networks. Meanwhile, global initiatives like the BRI and climate transition efforts are slowed by the need to address immediate crises emanating from the West Asia.

 

Conclusion. In 2025, the West Asia’s tensions are not merely a regional issue but a Eurasian one, with consequences that ripple across continents. Addressing these challenges requires coordinated diplomacy, robust economic diversification, and a commitment to humanitarian principles. Without such efforts, the fault lines of the West Asia will continue to fracture the Eurasian landscape, undermining stability and prosperity for years to come.

 

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Disclaimer:

Information and data included in the blog are for educational & non-commercial purposes only and have been carefully adapted, excerpted, or edited from reliable and accurate sources. All copyrighted material belongs to respective owners and is provided only for wider dissemination.

 

 

References:-

  1. CSIS: Experts React: Energy Implications of Escalating Middle East Conflict, Published: October 8, 2024
  2. TRENDS Research & Advisory: Energy Geopolitics in a Fragmented World, Published: November 12, 2024
  3. Al Jazeera Centre for Studies: The Geopolitics of Global Trade: Why the Middle East Matters Now More Than Ever, Published: June 3, 2025
  4. Carnegie Endowment: The Geopolitics of Economic Development in the Middle East, Published: February 15, 2024
  5. Foreign Policy Research Institute: Turkey’s Evolving Geopolitical Strategy in the Black Sea, Published: December 4, 2024
  6. World Economic Forum: Global Risks Report 2025, Published: January 15, 2025
  7. IMF: Press Briefing Transcript: Middle East and Central Asia Department, Spring Meetings 2025, Published: April 24, 2025
  8. International Institute for Iranian Studies: The Middle East Conflict and Indications of Change in the Strategic Environment, Published: February 10, 2025
  9. Carnegie Endowment: Ending the New Wars of Attrition: Opportunities for Collective Regional Security in the Middle East, Published: March 5, 2025
  10. Brookings: Forecasting China’s Strategy in the Middle East over the Next Four Years, Published: December 19, 2024
  11. Asian Review of Political Economy: China’s Belt and Road Initiative in Southeast Asia and its Implications for ASEAN-China Strategic Partnership, Published: December 3, 2024
  12. Science Direct: The Belt and Road Initiative and Partnership for Global Infrastructure and Investment: Comparison and Current Status, Published: June 1, 2025

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