Category: China

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428: Chinese J-31 aircraft for PAF

 

 

Inputs to Journalist  on the question of

Chinese J-31 aircraft for PAF: Should India be worried?

 

  • If and When. At the moment no clarity on the deal – numbers and timelines.

 

  • Doubts about Deal.
      • Affordability. Pakistan Money starved. 
      • China. Will China be willing to expose the aircraft and its actual capabilities to the world through Pakistan?

 

  • Marriage of convenience.
      • PAF needs modernisation urgently (F-16 and Mirage aircraft are old vintage and the West is not cooperative).
      • China needs to capture a share of the world market (Fighter aircraft – J-31 made as a cheaper option to US F-35, but no takers yet, not even PLAAF).

 

  • Advantage China.
      • Claim exportability of its aircraft.
      • Free trial ground – PAF.
      • Further control over Pakistan by increased reliance.

 

  • Advantage Pakistan.
      • Much-needed technology induction.
      • Boost to its AF and defence industry.

 

  • Aircraft Capability. As usual, China is very secretive about its actual capabilities vis-à-vis the claims.

 

 

  • Repercussions for India.
      • Unwelcome development.
      • Likely to be used against India.
      • Further strengthening of China-Pakistan defence cooperation and collusiveness.
      • Increase in Interoperability of PAF and PLAAF.

 

  • Mitigation.
      • Increase the deterrence value.
      • Enhance military (especially airpower) capability.
      • Spend more on defence.

 

  • To Do.
      • Keep a close watch on developments.
      • Monitor timelines.
      • Accelerate own indigenous projects (Tejas Mk 2 and AMCA).
      • Procure (Purchase) more Modern fighter aircraft.
      • Some analysts suggesting the US F-35 and Russian SU-57. Why add more types to an already diverse inventory?
      • Maybe go in for two more squadrons of already tested, selected and inducted Rafale aircraft.
      • Periodic review based on the progress of indigenous projects and developments in the enemy camp.

 

  • Bottom line.
    • Worry – NO.
    • Take cognisance – Yes.
    • Address the issue – Definitely.

 

Coming up: Detailed Article on the subject

 

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References and credits

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Disclaimer:

Information and data included in the blog are for educational & non-commercial purposes only and have been carefully adapted, excerpted, or edited from sources deemed reliable and accurate. All copyrighted material belongs to respective owners and is provided only for purposes of wider dissemination.

 

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414: Global Conflicts & Lessons for India’s Airpower

 

Observer Research Foundation (ORF), under it’s National Security Dialogues

organised a seminar on 26 Oct 23.

 

Subject – “Global Conflicts & Lessons for India’s Airpower”

 

 

Event Description: Over the last 18-months a plethora of debates have sprung in the aftermath of the Ukraine-Russia conflict and the Armenia-Azerbaijan war regarding the centrality of airpower in conflict. With the growing use of drones for offensive operations, new forms of air-defence systems being employed, and the minimal usage and impact of conventional fighter aircraft in these conflicts, there are many lessons for India’s airpower capacity as well.

 

So, what lessons can these changes and conflicts have on India’s airpower capacity? Is there a need for new doctrines to be incorporated by the Indian Air Force? What implications does the IAF’s depleting fighter aircraft squadron strength have on its capabilities?

 

Aspects discussed :-

    • Perspective on recent wars.
    • Centrality of Air Power.
    • Offensive use of Drones.
    • Changes in Air Defence.
    • Minimal use of Fighter aircraft.
    • Lessons drawn.
    • Need for new Doctrine.
    • Depleting strength of Fighter aircraft.
    • Balanced Force structure planning.
    • Defence production eco system.
    • Self reliance.
    • Importance of situational awareness and space based recce systems.

 

Interactive session was very interesting and question on following aspects were addressed:-

 

    • Duration and tempo of war.
    • Air balance vis-a-vis China.
    • IAF  training  and errors/mistakes.
    • Theaterisation and IAF.
    • Defence against sub con threat.
    • Future force structure.
    • Network-centric operations.
    • Chinese 5th gen ac.
    • Space force.
    • Drone utilisation issues.
    • Ballistic missile defence.

 

Enjoyed the interaction as a panelist.

 

To view the event, please click on the link below :-

 

 

For Q&A coverage please click on the links below:-

 

Q & A 1 :-

 

 

Q & A 2 :-

 

 

Q & A 3 :-

 

 

Q & A 4 :-

 

 

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410: THUCYDIDES’S TRAP: DRAGON CHALLENGING THE EAGLE

 

“It was the rise of Athens and the fear that this instilled in Sparta that made war inevitable.”

– Thucydides, History of the Peloponnesian War

 

Thucydides was a general and historian from Athens. His book “History of the Peloponnesian War” detailed what caused the conflict between the Athenian Delian League and the Spartan Peloponnesian League. While the Peloponnesian League was declared the winner, much of Greece had been destroyed and the power in the region was almost entirely depleted, which left them vulnerable to Persian invasion.

 

Thucydides has been christened “the father of scientific history.” More than 2,400 years ago, the Athenian historian Thucydides offered a powerful insight: “It was the rise of Athens, and the fear that this inspired in Sparta, that made war inevitable.”

 

The Thucydides’ Trap, is a term popularised by American political scientist Graham T. Allison in 2015 to describe an apparent tendency towards war when an emerging power threatens to displace an existing great power as a regional or international hegemon. The term was coined in relation to a potential military conflict between the United States and the People’s Republic of China. The term gained further influence in 2018 as a result of an increase in US-Chinese tensions after US President Donald Trump imposed tariffs on almost half of China’s exports to the US, leading to a trade war.

 

“Thucydides’s Trap refers to the natural, inevitable discombobulation that occurs when a rising power threatens to displace a ruling power, and the resulting structural stress makes a violent clash the rule, not the exception”.

 – Graham T Allison’s American political scientist

 

Graham Allison’s book Destined for War: Can America and China Escape Thucydides’s Trap? Reviews and analyses sixteen cases in the past five hundred years, wherein a major rising power has threatened to displace a major ruling power. Allison illustrates how the tension between rising and ruling powers has often led to war—while also showing how war was avoided in the rivalries that did not end in violence.

Twelve of these sixteen rivalries ended in war.

 

 

Conflict of Interests

 

Will China become No. 1 and when is it likely to overtake the United States to become, say, the largest economy in the world, or primary engine of global growth, or the biggest market for luxury goods?

 

Indicators to be watched are:-

      • Size of Economy,
      • Manufacturing capability.
      • Trading Potential and volume,
      • Debt holding.
      • Foreign-direct-investment destination.
      • Energy consumption.
      • Oil imports.
      • Carbon emission.
      • Steel production.
      • Auto market.
      • Smartphone market.
      • E-commerce market.
      • Luxury-goods market.
      • Internet users.
      • Fastest supercomputer.
      • Foreign reserves.
      • The primary engine of global growth.

 

China has already surpassed the U.S. in some of these indicators. The questions are:-

 

Will China be able to sustain economic growth rates for in coming decade and beyond?

– It has slowed down a bit but continues to grow.

 

Are China’s current leaders serious about displacing the U.S. as the predominant power?

-Yes, China’s leaders are serious about displacing the United States as the top power in the world, in the foreseeable future.

 

Will China follow the path of Japan and Germany, and take its place as a responsible stakeholder in the international order that America has built?

– China does not like to be subordinate to anyone. It would want to be accepted as such.

 

The U.S. and China have the second and third-largest nuclear arsenals in the world, respectively, and an armed engagement between these two superpowers could quickly and easily escalate to a cataclysmic conflict. Such a conflict would not be in anyone’s best interest.

 

“War is a choice, not a trap.”

 

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References and credits

To all the online sites and channels.

  1. https://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2015/09/united-states-china-war-thucydides-trap/406756/
  2. https://www.belfercenter.org/thucydides-trap/case-file
  1. https://ndisc.nd.edu/news-media/news/to-set-and-spring-the-thucydides-trap/
  1. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Thucydides_Trap#:~:text=Thucydides’s%20Trap%20refers%20to%20the,the%20rule%2C%20not%20the%20exception.

Disclaimer:

Information and data included in the blog are for educational & non-commercial purposes only and have been carefully adapted, excerpted, or edited from sources deemed reliable and accurate. All copyrighted material belongs to respective owners and is provided only for purposes of wider dissemination.

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