DRAGON VS ELEPHANT: ROUND X

Pic Courtesy: Deccan Herald

Social media has gone abuzz on the evening of 12 Dec 22 (yesterday), with the news about the engagement between the Indian army and PLA at the Yangtze, in the Tawang sector.

 

The magnitude of the engagement and the escalation potential is still being assessed.

 

Semantics. The terms being used are Skirmish, Scuffle, faceoff, intrusion, etc.

 

Pattern. There seems to be a pattern (of these comparatively bigger incidents).

 

• Every 1-2 years (Chumar, Dolam, Galwan, and now Yangtze).

 

• Chumar – N, Dolam – E, Galwan – N, Yangtze – E.

 

• Linked to domestic (both China and India) and international events.

 

Disputed Borders with Differing Perceptions.  The Indo – Tibet border is not clearly defined. This colonial, cartographic mischief is creating problems over the decades. China is not keen on resolving the border issues with India.

 

Diversionary Tactics. China is facing strong domestic opposition to zero-covid policy implementation. Xi having consolidated his position for the third term would be much bolder internally as well as externally.

 

Keeping India in Place. China feels these activities, keep India in place. Recently PM visited the northeast (19 Nov 2022) and announced infrastructure development projects, including the 1800 Km long Frontier Highway project from Tri-junction up to Vijaynagar.

 

Chance Encounter or Pre-planned Activity. The fact that a large number of PLA troops (300+ reported) came armed with (primitive weapons) fisticuffs and studded bats and sticks, indicates that it was not a chance encounter. On the contrary, it seems to be a deliberate act with higher approval.

 

Strategic Coercion, Testing Waters or Diverting Attention.  Considering the timing and the modus Operandi of the incident it could be any of the three or a combination of more than one.

 

Controlling Pressure (Escalation).Chinese have mastered the pressure cooker act of keeping the pressure at the desired level. The use of primitive weapons causing only injuries without fatalities is an example. Withdrawal after the initial engagement, followed by on-and-off engagements while resorting to talks is another employed tactic.

 

Cautious Approach.  China always does things with a plan and for a reason. Caution is required not only in the area of the incident but also in the other disputed areas. A watch needs to be maintained for the nibbling activities (in this case possibly a Vantage post on the ridge line).

 

Dual Use Infrastructure / Military Civil Fusion. China’s approach towards military-civil fusion, under six verticals, is a success story. Dual-use infrastructure is one of the verticals. China has reportedly created 628 villages, capable of housing about hundred families each, along the LAC. These villages besides creating demographic changes over a period of time could also be used as military support bases. Supporting role of a nearby village (reportedly Xiaoking) is possible.

 

Bean Counting. Varying figures of the number of injured on both sides are being reported. These figures give a sense of perceived tactical victory. However, the larger issues need to be looked into.

 

• Frequency and regularity of the incidents.

 

• Manifestation of incidents at will and time of their choosing.

 

• Salami slicing efforts.

 

• Changing nature of the engagements.

 

• Increase in boldness.

 

• Increase in frequency, depth, areas, and extent.

 

Grey Zone Activities: Joining the Dots. These grey zone activities are being conducted and seem to be in isolation. If one joins the dots, a clear picture would emerge. China would continue with these activities, gaining little by little from each, and the deterrence value of India needs to be increased in order to discourage them.

 

Psychological-Warfare: Media Effect. Media goes into high gear during these incidents and their aftermath. Besides a flurry of print articles, TV debates and panel discussions take place. China has mastered this art (Part of its three warfare strategy). The media scrutiny and the trial does put pressure on the decision-makers. Are we falling into the Chinese trap?

 

Multiple Hues (Directions, Views, and Interests). These incidents trigger debates and discussions.

 

• Defence experts mushroom and give their perceptions.

 

• Moderate ones highlight the normalcy of the occurrence and justify the non-escalatory approach.

 

• Hardcore ones advocate the use of force to discourage future occurrences (citing past examples).

 

• Some will even suggest that Theaterisation is the only way forward to deal with China.

 

• Paid ones start promoting their service/product, projecting them as the panacea of all problems.

 

• Geo-political experts start debating about joining West/East Camps, multilateral organisations, and bilateral/multilateral military alliances.

 

• Anti-establishment ones would start criticising every decision and action taken.

(Freedom of speech is good, but questions still remain whether all this helps the cause or adds to the problem and is being exploited?)

 

Unanswered Question. The question of why was the occurrence disclosed after three days remains unanswered. One possible reason is to avoid the debates and discussions from going off on a tangent based on half-baked information.

 

 

Bottom Line

The deterrence value (Military Capability) needs to be enhanced.

 

Suggestions and value additions are most welcome

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Information and data included in the blog are for educational & non-commercial purposes only and have been carefully adapted, excerpted, or edited from sources deemed reliable and accurate. All copyrighted material belongs to respective owners and is provided only for purposes of wider dissemination.