Published by Book review literary Trust
BOOK REVIEW
THE POLITICS OF SOUTH CHINA SEA DISPUTES
By Nehginpao Kipgen
Review by: Air Marshal Anil Khosla (Retd) PVSM, AVSM, VM
The South China Sea is a semi-enclosed area measuring 3.6 million square kilometres in the Pacific Ocean. It spreads from Straits of Malacca and Karimata to Taiwan straits and is bordered in the north by China and Taiwan, the Philippines in the east, Brunei and Malaysia in the south, and Vietnam in the west. It contains numerous islands, rocks and reefs. Major ones being Spartley islands, Paracel islands, Pratas and Natuna islands and the Scarborough shoal. The area is believed to contain rich reserves of oil, natural gas, minerals and fishery stocks. The region is considered to be a centre of future economic growth in East Asia and is also sometimes called a “second Persian Gulf”. Major sea routes of shipping pass through this area. The strategic location and the abundant resources make it a subject of interest and concern for littoral states and the international community. The security issues around it always remain in focus and it is considered to be one of the flashpoints.
The South China Sea disputes are regarded as one of the most complex and challenging ocean-related maritime disputes in East Asia, involving both islands and maritime claims among sovereign states. The underlying problem is the claim of overlapping areas by different countries, involving China, Brunei, Malaysia, Vietnam, Philippines, and Taiwan. They all claim that they own the sovereignty of the islands or islets, reefs and / or resources. The traditional high seas freedoms of navigation and over flights are also at stake in the dynamics of SCS, making the issue even more complex with involvement of extra regional and other major powers including United States. Due to the number of claimants and the complexity of claims, it is called the “mother of all territorial disputes”. China is by far the biggest country in the region and claims sovereignty over almost all the South China Sea. The region has become a flashpoint for tensions between China and other nations which claim sovereignty over two largely uninhabited island chains, the Paracels and the Spratlys. China claims the largest portion of territory, saying its rights go back to centuries.
Recently, the situation in SCS has become serious and has the potential of escalating into international conflict. Since the outbreak of the Covid-19 pandemic, tensions in the South China Sea (SCS) have been on the rise. This is mainly because of China’s continued assertive actions and the sharp deterioration in US-China relations over China’s massive territorial claims in the SCS. In these circumstances the book on “The politics of south china sea disputes” by Nehginpao Kipgen is well timed and very relevant.
The 135 page book is divided into seven chapters. The book creates an understanding as to why this region is important to the claimants and other global powers. It examines current and potential conflicts in the South China Sea, and also evaluates how conflicts have been “managed” to date and suggests as to how they might be better managed in the future. It is different from other literature on the same subject in terms of analysis of the prevailing situation of dispute through the lens of established international relations theories, particularly realism, liberalism and constructivism. It also analyses the ASEAN Way of dispute management, and dispute settlement under international law. The research employs the qualitative method, which involves analysing both primary and secondary data. Strength of the book lies in that it incorporates interviews with some of the most notable experts on the South China Sea controversy including government officials, academics and legal experts from the Philippines, Indonesia, and Singapore.
The book provides general overview of the fundamental issues of the SCS disputes tracing its contours from ancient times to the present day. It brings out how the dispute took root and changed form in the precolonial and colonial times, decolonization period, Cold War era, and then to the more recent times. It also provides a glimpse of several efforts taken by regional and global players to resolve the issue bilaterally and multilaterally. It brings out clearly that over the years, the dispute has become more complicated by the competing and overlapping claims of several littoral states and involvement and interest of other members of the international community.
The book examines in detail, China’s claim and activities in the SCS since ancient times to the present day. Two facts have been brought out in the book very clearly. First that China uses folklore, myths and legends as well as distorted history to support its territorial and maritime claims in the SCS. Secondly, China’s territorial and sovereignty claims have a high degree of ambiguity. Under this umbrella of ambiguity China has been using different methods to pursue its objectives in the SCS following strategy of increased assertiveness while delaying resolution to bid time. China has been engaging littoral states in bilateral negotiations and holding dialogue with ASEAN but with no breakthrough. At the same time Beijing is increasing its presence in the SCS through naval exercises and physical installations, such as land reclamations and building artificial islands. China is following its tactics of salami slicing in SCS as well, without resorting to direct military engagement or confrontation.
The book also delves into claims and activities of other claimant states besides China, i.e. Taiwan, Philippines, Vietnam, Malaysia, and Brunei, individually as well as collectively under the aegis of ASEAN. Aspect of Indonesia getting sucked into the dispute has also been brought out. The claims and stance by these claimant states has been analysed against the background of factors like identity crisis (Taiwan), rising China and individual political and economic ties with China. Engagement of ASEAN in conflict management with China to find an amicable solution has been discussed, with conclusion that so far ASEAN has been unable to achieve an amicable agreement. The reasons could be either China’s insistence on a bilateral solution or due to the competing claims among claimant states.
The book deliberates on the July 2016 arbitration and analyses the positions and arguments of both the Philippines and China before and after the arbitration. It has been rightly concluded that the status quo on the SCS has not changed significantly and is not likely to bring any significant change in the near future as well. China ignores the arbitral ruling and continues to maintain its intransigence behaviour with no intention to fulfil its international obligation.
Role of other regional and global players, which are not direct claimants in the SCS dispute, has also been looked into. Like any other security issue the international community is divided on the question of the SCS disputes. While some countries support one of the sides, others remain neutral. Role of US is important for the dispute and the region, because it is the only power that is capable of standing up to and counterbalancing the increasing assertiveness of China. US maintains that it does not support the sovereignty claim of any particular state while demanding freedom of navigation and over flight in international waters. The US concern is shared by some of the countries such as Australia, Japan and India giving rise to Quad, which has the potential to bring stability in the region. While the Quad demands peaceful resolution of the SCS dispute and respect for international law, it still remains a dialogue forum rather than a security alliance.
Most important part of the book is its concluding chapter, where the author has suggested the way forward. Considering the complicated nature of the dispute, finding a solution is easier said than done. Even the leaders from the claimant states and subject experts have differing opinions about its resolution. Some of these opinions are as follows:
- Manage the dispute and keep the claimants engaged in negotiations. Keep on talking and engaging each other at different levels through bilateral and multilateral forums.
- Follow the law of the sea and honour the International laws. Take legal recourse or a third party intervention.
- Follow collective effort through ASEAN to manage the dispute and to prevent major conflicts.
- Show restraint in order not to provoke one another, either through statements or actions, stop reclamation activities and militarization of the features in the SCS.
- Maintain the status quo and wait for a good time to deal with the issue.
- Cooperate on the non-contentious soft areas in order to build confidence and trust, such as marine environment protection, search and rescue, safety of navigation, and combating transnational crimes. Later on, other contentious issues could be dealt with.
- Resort to joint explorations and sharing of resources like oil and gas.
Author suggests that the answer lies in the claimants abandoning their confrontational attitude and agreeing to find some common ground, even at the cost of sacrificing certain portions of their claims. He suggests that, one possible peaceful solution could be for all claimants to limit their claim to the areas of 200 nautical miles of the EEZ and continental shelf in accordance with the UNCLOS, leaving international waters for free navigation and overt flight. Another possibility suggested is for the parties concerned to establish a common ownership of the disputed areas, whereby all the revenues from the SCS are equitably or proportionately shared among the littoral states. In SCS dispute, China is the key player and future of the dispute depends on the China’s attitude and actions in future.
Overall the book is a comprehensive research work covering all aspects related to a relevant subject. The book is appropriately timed, and would be beneficial to people from diverse background. It will be useful to military strategists, security mandarins, political scientists, diplomats, historians and students & scholars of regional security and diplomacy.
Bottom Line
Future of SCS Dispute depends on China.
Questions
Will it ever get resolved?
Will it result in armed conflict?
Suggestions and value additions are most welcome
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