DRAGON’S BRAIN: DIFFERENTLY WIRED (PART 3: DEALING WITH CHINA)

This is the last part of the series of articles on this subject.  This one analyses aspects related to China’s vulnerabilities, her policy and attitude towards India and present day behavior.

Dealing with China

China’s Achilles Heel. China has a few vulnerabilities and insecurities. Her reaction becomes aggressive when these red lines get threatened or crossed. Some of these are:

• • Hunger for Natural Resources and Energy. China is a growing country needing a large amount of natural resources. China also has a very high demand for energy, making it heavily dependent on oil imports.

• • Extended Supply and Communication lines. China’s extended supply and communication lines, both on land and sea could become vulnerable to interdiction, disrupting her supplies. China has been working towards creating redundancy by developing alternate supply routes.

• • Belt and Road Initiative. This project has been initiated by China to revive the old silk route. Her endeavor is to create alternate trade and supply routes connecting various countries. A lot is riding for China on this project, which is already running into some rough weather in a couple of places.

• • Three Ts & Hong Kong. China is very touchy about Trade, Taiwan and Tibet. Even Hong Kong can be added to this list now.

• • Food Security. Recent pandemic and floods in the country have revealed the fault line of food security of the country. The food production is inadequate to meet the demand. Fishing in waters of other countries and leasing of land from other countries for cultivation are efforts towards mitigation of this problem.

• • Age Demography. To control the growing population, China had adopted one child policy. This policy was implemented very forcefully and was successful, however it has created an adverse age demography. The median age of the country is high with a large number of aged population. Each young person has to support two to three aged relatives. As a result it tries to avoid contact warfare, where loss of life would be high. Investment in long range weapons and unmanned platforms corroborates this observation.

Sino-India Aspects. Some of the relevant aspects related to Sino-India relations, engagement and policy are as follows:

• • Views India as Regional Challenger. Bipolar Asia is not acceptable to China. China feels that India is the only country in the region that could pose a challenge and become an obstacle in her path.

• • Border dispute. China shares her land and maritime borders with large number of countries and has disputes with many of them. She has resolved few of these disputes with some countries but does not seem to be keen to do the same with India. Reasons for this could be one or a combination of these, as follows:

• • • Grab more Indian territory in future.

• • • Belief in theory that it can prove its supremacy by teaching India a lesson at the time of its choosing.

• • • Finds it an easy way of diverting domestic or world attention as and when required.

• • Nibbling to Gobbling. China is known for nibbling at the borders, resorting to tactics of salami slicing. So far this was being done in a sort of gradual and clandestine way. However, with increase in its power, China has become bolder and started gobbling instead of nibbling. She has become more overt in her actions and started encroaching on larger chunks of area in many places. This tendency if not checked, may soon turn into process of devouring instead of nibbling.

• • Pressure Cooker Theory. This is a theory conceptualized by me to explain China’s actions. China keeps the pot simmering all the time, at places of her interest. It is akin to putting a pressure cooker on the fire and then regulating the pressure. China creates these hot spots and then regulates the situation so as to keep it below the threshold of things getting out of control. However, in recent times she has resorted to putting a number of pressure cookers on the fire simultaneously.

• • String of pearls. China’s has been pursuing the policy of “string of pearls” to surround India, since quite a few years. Some of the aspects related to this policy are:

• • • • Make friends with the enemy’s enemy e.g. Pakistan.

• • • • Create enmity in neighborhood e.g. Nepal.

• • • • Engage the neighboring countries and try to win them over to her side, e.g. Bangladesh and Myanmar.

• • • • Take control of defense infrastructure and create launch pads and support stations all around India e.g. Sri Lanka, Maldives, Djibouti and Central Asian Republic countries.

• • • • In recent years, she has gone a step further by improving interoperability with some of these countries. This is being achieved by supplying them with Chinese origin arms and equipment and conducting military exercises to establish interoperable procedures.

• • Policy of 3Es. Some scholars call China’s India policy as that of encirclement (by way of string of pearls), entanglement (by adopting pressure cooker tactics) and envelopment (i.e. impeding India’s growth by keeping her busy with issues created by inimical or indifferent neighbors)

China’s Aggressive and Irrational Behavior.  China’s behavior in this time of pandemic is difficult to understand. A number of reasons have been cited to explain it. Some of these are to divert attention from her domestic issues and her role in handling the pandemic, for tactical gains by nibbling territory or to demonstrate her power and capability to handle multiple fronts. In my opinion, the possible reasons for aggression, irrationality and timing, are as follows:

• • Power Intoxication. China’s has attained too much power too soon i.e. well before the planned time lines. In addition all the power is over-centralization and concentrated with the CPC in general and party leader in particular. These two factors cause sort of power intoxication, which possibly results in aggressive behavior.

• • Many a Slip between Cup and the Lip. China mishandled the pandemic initially resulting in the spread of virus all over the world. This has created an antagonistic change in the world’s opinion towards China and would harm her growth and in turn prevent fulfilment of her dream of rejuvenation. China has sort of played her cards too soon out of desperation.

• • Opportunism. China has acted now to take advantage of the prevailing difficult situation wherein the world is preoccupied and struggling to deal with the pandemic.

Taming the Dragon. All said and done, China has fared well and rapidly grown economically and militarily. The country has aspirations and would continue to work towards achieving her dream however, methods and means employed by are questionable. Prudence would be necessary in dealing with the Dragon. Some suggestions are as follows:

• • Think like the Dragon. In the words of Sun Tzu – “To know your enemy, you must become your enemy”.  To beat the enemy one has to think like one and these articles were an endeavor to provide insight into the Chinese thinking.

• • Language of Communication. One should speak in the language of the adversary. China respects strength – to deal with her one has to be strong militarily as well as economically. Dilution in deterrence value of the enemy’s military encourages China.

• • Confront without Blinking. The only way to deal with a bully is to stand up to him or her. In the present situation, even small countries have shown a lot of grit to take China head-on. Dragon’s posturing and muscle flexing game needs to be matched eye to eye. Not just the military power but the will to use it if required should be visible.

• • Collective Security. In today’s world this is a more economical and practical way. To deal with the Dragon, countries with common interests and ideology need to come together. Formation of the Quad is a logical development wherein, USA, Australia, India and Japan are getting drawn together into a coalition.

• • Multipronged Strategy. China has opened up too many fronts and is juggling around to keep them at a certain threshold. Increasing the heat at multiple fronts would not only thin her out but also make it difficult for her to manage them. This is applicable both for Sino-India confrontation as well as China’s engagement in other parts of the world.

• • Multi-Domain Approach. Solution to China’s aggression does not lie in military action alone. It has to be dealt in multiple domains like diplomatic, economic, psychological and if required military.

• • Hit where it hurts the Most. China’s irrational and aggressive behavior has come about because of rapid economic growth. The problem needs to be dealt with prudently, hitting at her weak spots. China’s weaknesses are known and should be exploited. All the countries of the world have started the process of economic, trade and manufacturing decoupling with China. This would hurt and slow her down in the long run.

• • Chanakya vs. Sun Tzu. Writings of Sun Tzu and other Chinese scholars need to be read and understood. However, Chanakya (Kautilya) was a man of greater experience and wisdom. He was one of the world’s greatest diplomats, strategists and economists. His recommendations articulated in the ‘Arthashastra’, should be used effectively.

Bottom Line

Do not blink.

Resort to collective security – for the time being.

Play the game wisely, replying in the same language.

Follow multipronged and multi-domain approach

INVEST IN & ENHANCE MILITARY POWER

“The military might of a country represents its national strength. Only when it builds up its military might in every way can it develop into a thriving country.”

– Kim Jong-un