804: PAKISTAN’S MILITARY DEPLOYMENT IN SAUDI ARABIA: A TIGHTROPE WALK OR A STRATEGIC MASTER STROKE

 

On 11 April 2026, Saudi Arabia’s Ministry of Defence confirmed the arrival of a massive Pakistani military contingent at its King Abdulaziz Air Base. Approximately 13,000 troops joined the 10,000 Pakistani personnel already stationed in the Kingdom.  This brings the total to over 23,000. Between 10 and 18 Pakistan Air Force fighter jets, support aircraft, and missile interceptors arrived alongside them. The last comparable Pakistani deployment to the Gulf was during the 1991 Gulf War. This military move is of consequential significance at a time when the Middle East is on fire.

 

Strategic Mutual Defence Agreement (SMDA). Pakistan and Saudi Arabia signed the SMDA on 17 September 2025.  Previous cooperation between them was limited to military training, advisory roles, and limited support on security matters. The SMDA fundamentally changed the character of their relationship. It also has a collective security clause that suggests that “an attack on one country is considered an attack on both”. The recent deployment of Pakistani troops and fighter jets in Saudi Arabia marks the first major operational activation under the SDMA. It represents a significant escalation from earlier engagements between the two countries.

 

Pakistani Deployment. The deployment of PAF assets and ground forces suggests that the reality is considerably more serious than a symbolic gesture. The strategic logic of the deployment’s location is also noteworthy. King Abdulaziz Air Base is located in the heartland of Saudi Arabia’s energy infrastructure. Important oil infrastructure, i.e. the Abqaiq processing facility and the Ras Tanura terminal, is in this region. Reportedly, the missile interceptors were dispatched earlier following Iranian strikes on Gulf targets in March 2026. The phased deployment suggests that it is a deliberate, staged increase of Pakistan’s forces in the Kingdom. The air assets provide enhanced interception capability against the drone and missile threats that have characterised Iranian and Houthis’ offensive operations. The ground forces serve a dual purpose: deterring Houthi incursions from the south and freeing Saudi forces for higher-technology defensive and offensive operations.

 

Political Signalling. Some analysts still characterise the SMDA as primarily a political signal of solidarity. Pakistani officials have been careful with their framing. The forces are “not there to attack anyone.” The deployment is a form of defensive cooperation under an existing bilateral agreement. Saudi officials described it as aimed at “enhancing joint military coordination, raising operational readiness, and supporting security and stability at both the regional and international levels.” The language is measured. The military footprint is not.  This transforms Pakistan from a secondary security provider into a primary deterrent.

The Diplomatic Tightrope. What makes Pakistan’s position uniquely complex is what was happening in Islamabad at the same time. Even as Pakistani jets were landing in the Eastern Province, Pakistan was hosting direct US-Iran ceasefire negotiations in its capital. Pakistan’s Army Chief, General Asim Munir, visited Riyadh and Tehran during this period. It indicates that Pakistan is trying to maintain both relationships simultaneously. Reuters reported that PAF jets provided a military escort for Iranian officials coming to Islamabad for the peace talks. Pakistan was, in the same week, escorting Iranian diplomats to safety and sending troops to Saudi Arabia against Iran. The diplomatic tightrope does not get more precarious than that.

 

Economic Dimension. Pakistan’s involvement cannot be understood without its economic context. Pakistan’s economy has been under severe stress. Gulf remittances are a structural pillar of its balance of payments. Saudi financial bailouts have repeatedly given Islamabad breathing room to prevent default. The troop deployment reflects a relationship that is simultaneously strategic, institutional, transactional, and above all, symbiotic. Pakistan is providing the military power and the associated nuclear umbrella. In return, Saudi Arabia would provide the financial support to keep Pakistan’s economy afloat. Concurrent with this military deployment, Saudi Arabia and Qatar pledged an additional $5 billion in financial support to Pakistan. The Jerusalem Post and Gulf analysts have described this bluntly as a “military repayment” system.

 

Regional Stakeholder. How the key actors read this deployment reveals the full complexity of what Pakistan has stepped into.

    • Saudi Arabia views the SMDA’s activation as long overdue. A formalisation of “Muslim brotherhood” solidarity and a critical component of strategic diversification at a moment when the widening conflict in West Asia has strained US reassurances. For Riyadh, Pakistani forces provide a tangible backstop that no amount of American diplomatic signalling can substitute.
    • Iran officially welcomed the SMDA when it was signed, labelling it as part of a “regional security system.” However, the circumstances for this deployment are different. A nuclear-armed state has deployed its doorstep, on the side of its principal regional adversary. The risk of Iranian miscalculation cannot be dismissed.
    • Israel faces more intricate repercussions. Pakistan’s presence constrains Iranian offensive options against Saudi targets. In some ways, it serves Israeli interests by restricting the opening of multiple fronts. But it also brings a nuclear-armed hostile state into the region. Israel would be watching the developments with sustained attention.
    • India is monitoring closely and quietly. The combat experience Pakistani forces will accumulate in a high-intensity multi-domain environment, the financial windfalls from Gulf support, and the deepening military-institutional ties with well-equipped Gulf partners. All of this has implications for India’s security calculus. The Line of Control is not the Eastern Province. But armies learn, adapt, and bring lessons home. India would be unwise to treat this deployment as a matter of purely West Asian concern.

 

Challenges. Pakistan’s military is already involved with the Afghan border, the Line of Control with India, and domestic counterterrorism operations.  Now, a major overseas deployment in an active conflict zone has been added to the commitments. Sustaining 23,000 personnel in the Gulf while maintaining domestic readiness is a significant challenge for resources and logistics. The escalation risk is also equally real. Pakistani forces are positioned in a high-readiness status region.  In this region, miscalculations have already produced multiple unintended engagements. If Iranian strikes resume against Saudi energy infrastructure, Pakistani personnel could be caught in the crossfire.  The SMDA’s collective defence clause obligates a legal and political response. Defensive cooperation can rapidly escalate into direct involvement.  Pakistan is a nuclear-armed state. Its conventional forces in the Gulf operate under the implied umbrella of that deterrent. Every actor in the region is aware of this. It shapes calculations in ways that are difficult to model and impossible to predict.

 

Concluding Thoughts.

It is the first time since 1991 that Pakistan has committed forces at this scale to an active crisis zone outside its immediate neighbourhood. The SMDA has moved from paper to practice. A nuclear-armed state is now a frontline participant in the most volatile regional security environment on the planet.

Pakistan’s deployment to Saudi Arabia is either one of five things, or a combination of them.

    • Honouring of the treaty obligation.
    • Sustenance of financial relationship.
    • Diplomatic signalling.
    • Establishment of deterrence posture.
    • Acceptance of strategic risk.

The move could either strengthen deterrence and contribute to de-escalation or deepen polarisation and raise the risk of miscalculation. It will depend on decisions made in Tehran, Riyadh, Washington, and Islamabad in the weeks ahead.

What is already clear is that Pakistan has crossed a threshold (willingly or under duress). The coming months will determine whether that crossing was wise.

 

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Information and data included in the blog are for educational & non-commercial purposes only and have been carefully adapted, excerpted, or edited from reliable and accurate sources. All copyrighted material belongs to the respective owners and is provided only for wider dissemination.

 

 

References: –

  1. “Pakistan sends military force, jets to Saudi Arabia under 2025 defence pact”, Al Arabiya English, 11 Apr 26. https://english.alarabiya.net (or relevant article URL)
  1. “The Saudi defence ministry says military force from Pakistan reached King Abdulaziz Air Base” Arab News, 11 Apr 26. https://www.arabnews.com
  1. “Pakistan sends a military force to Saudi Arabia as part of a pact”, Bloomberg, 11 Apr 26. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-04-11/pakistan-sends-military-force-to-saudi-arabia-as-part-of-pact
  1. “Understanding the Pakistan–Saudi defence agreement”, Global Security Review, 03 Nov 25.

Understanding the Pakistan–Saudi Defense Agreement

  1. “Why did Pakistan deploy soldiers and fighter jets to Saudi Arabia?”, The New Arab, Apr 26. https://www.newarab.com/news/why-did-pakistan-deploy-soldiers-fighter-jets-saudi-arabia
  1. “US-Iran war: Pakistan-Saudi defence pact, Strategic Mutual Defence Agreement details”, NDTV, Apr 26. https://www.ndtv.com/world-news/us-iran-war-pakistan-saudi-secret-defence-pact-strategic-mutual-defence-agreement-details-11355801
  1. “Pakistan sends fighter jets to Saudi Arabia under a mutual defence pact”, Reuters, 11 Apr 26. https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/saudi-arabia-says-pakistan-sends-fighter-jets-kingdom-under-defence-pact-2026-04-11/
  1. “Saudi Arabia, nuclear-armed Pakistan sign mutual defence pact”, Reuters, 17 Sep 25. https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/saudi-arabia-nuclear-armed-pakistan-sign-mutual-defence-pact-2025-09-17/
  1. “Saudi Arabia-Pakistan Strategic Mutual Defence Agreement: Implications for India”, Vivekananda International Foundation, 30 Sep 26. https://www.vifindia.org/2025/september/30/Saudi-Arabia-Pakistan-Strategic-Mutual-Defence-Agreement
  1. “Pakistan’s dual role is that of a mediator and military ally”, WION, Apr 26. https://www.wionews.com/world/pakistan-saudi-smda-pact-us-iran-war-1776144006783

790: THE U.S. STRIKE ON KHARG ISLAND AND ITS GLOBAL IMPLICATIONS

 

Inputs (video bytes) provided to the NDTV (Hindi) on 14 Mar 26.

 

The recent United States attack (on March 13-14, 2026) on Kharg Island marks a major escalation in the ongoing conflict between Washington and Tehran. The strike targeted military installations on the island, which serves as the primary hub for Iranian oil exports. Although the oil terminals themselves were reportedly spared, the operation has raised serious concerns about the future of the war, Iran’s potential response, and the stability of global energy markets.

This development highlights how modern conflicts increasingly involve not only military objectives but also economic pressure, particularly through attacks on critical infrastructure. The targeting of Kharg Island has therefore become a key geopolitical event with consequences that could extend far beyond the Middle East.

 

 

Strategic Importance of Kharg Island

Kharg Island is far more than a military target; it is the absolute epicentre of Iran’s economic survival. The 83-square-kilometre island is located in the Persian Gulf, 25 kilometres off the southwestern coast. The island is often referred to as the “crown jewel” of the Islamic Republic for several critical reasons.

It is located off the coast of Iran’s Bushehr province. Despite its modest size, it holds enormous economic and strategic significance for Iran. The island functions as the country’s main oil export terminal and handles the vast majority of its crude shipments to international markets.

Estimates suggest that around 90% of Iran’s oil exports (approximately 1.7 million barrels per day) pass through Kharg Island, making it the backbone of the country’s petroleum industry and a central pillar of its economy.

The island contains massive oil storage facilities capable of holding tens of millions of barrels of crude. Its deep-water terminals allow large supertankers to dock and load oil, something that many parts of Iran’s coastline cannot accommodate due to shallow waters.

Because Iran’s government relies heavily on oil revenues to finance its state budget, military operations, and social programs, Kharg Island effectively acts as the financial lifeline of the Iranian state. Any disruption to operations there can immediately reduce Iran’s export capacity and significantly weaken its economy.

The island has long been regarded as one of the most sensitive and heavily protected targets in the Persian Gulf.

 

The U.S. Strike and Its Objectives

According to reports, U.S. forces conducted airstrikes that destroyed military installations and defensive systems (including air defences, a naval base, missile/mine storage sites, and related facilities) on Kharg Island. However, the oil infrastructure itself was not directly attacked.

This selective targeting reflects a strategic calculation by Washington. By striking military defences rather than oil facilities, the United States may have intended to send a strong warning to Iran without immediately triggering a full-scale economic crisis in global energy markets.

At the same time, the attack demonstrates that the United States possesses the capability to strike at the heart of Iran’s energy system if tensions escalate further. U.S. officials have also indicated that oil infrastructure could become a target if Iran disrupts international shipping or escalates attacks on U.S. forces and allies in the region.

This approach effectively places Kharg Island at the center of strategic pressure in the conflict.

 

Possible Iranian Retaliation

Iran is unlikely to ignore an attack on such a critical national asset. Several possible retaliatory options are being discussed by military analysts.

Disrupting the Strait of Hormuz. One of Iran’s most powerful strategic tools is its ability to threaten shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. Roughly 20% of the world’s oil supply passes through this route, making it one of the most important energy chokepoints on Earth. Iran could attempt to mine the strait, attack tankers, or use missiles and drones to disrupt shipping traffic. Even a partial disruption would significantly affect global energy supplies.

Attacking Regional Energy Infrastructure. Iran may also target oil facilities in neighbouring countries allied with the United States, such as Saudi Arabia or the United Arab Emirates. Such strikes could mirror previous attacks on Gulf energy infrastructure and would aim to increase economic pressure on Western allies.

Targeting U.S. Military Bases. Iran has several options for direct military retaliation against U.S. forces stationed in the Middle East. American bases in Iraq, Bahrain, Qatar, and other Gulf states are within range of Iranian ballistic missiles and drones.

Expanding Proxy Warfare. Iran could also rely on allied militant groups across the region. Organisations in Lebanon, Iraq, Syria, and Yemen have historically acted as Iran’s proxies and may launch attacks on U.S. interests or allied targets.

Any of these responses could escalate the conflict into a broader regional war.

 

Impact on Global Energy Markets

The attack on Kharg Island has already raised concerns in global energy markets. Because the island is responsible for the majority of Iranian oil exports, any disruption could remove significant volumes of crude from global supply.

Even before the strike, tensions in the region had caused oil prices to rise sharply. Analysts warn that further escalation could push prices dramatically higher, potentially reaching levels not seen in years.

The situation becomes even more serious if shipping through the Strait of Hormuz is disrupted. A prolonged closure or reduction in tanker traffic would create a major supply shock for the global oil market.

In recent weeks, tanker traffic through the strait has already declined dramatically amid fears of attacks, illustrating how quickly the conflict can affect global energy flows.

 

Economic Consequences for the World

The broader economic consequences of escalation could be severe. Oil price spikes typically lead to higher transportation costs, increased inflation, and pressure on national economies.

Countries heavily dependent on energy imports—especially in Asia and Europe—would be particularly vulnerable. China, India, Japan, and South Korea all rely heavily on oil shipments passing through the Persian Gulf.

Higher oil prices could also slow global economic growth. If energy costs remain elevated for an extended period, industries such as aviation, shipping, and manufacturing may face rising operational expenses.

A prolonged disruption to Middle Eastern energy supplies could even trigger a global recession, especially if combined with instability in financial markets and trade routes.

 

Conclusion

The U.S. attack on Kharg Island represents a pivotal moment in the escalating conflict between the United States and Iran. While the strike targeted military facilities rather than oil infrastructure, it has demonstrated that one of Iran’s most important economic assets is vulnerable.

For Iran, Kharg Island is not merely a piece of territory—it is the cornerstone of the nation’s oil export system and a vital source of government revenue. Any sustained disruption to operations there could have profound consequences for Iran’s economy and its ability to sustain military operations.

At the same time, Iran possesses several options for retaliation, ranging from attacks on regional energy infrastructure to disrupting global shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. Such actions could dramatically intensify the conflict and push the region closer to a wider war.

Perhaps the most significant concern is the potential impact on the global economy. Because the Persian Gulf remains the world’s most important energy corridor, any escalation involving Kharg Island or the Strait of Hormuz could trigger sharp increases in oil prices and widespread economic instability.

In this sense, the attack on Kharg Island is not just a regional military development—it is a geopolitical event with global consequences that could shape the future of energy security and international economic stability.

 

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Disclaimer:

Information and data included in the blog are for educational & non-commercial purposes only and have been carefully adapted, excerpted, or edited from reliable and accurate sources. All copyrighted material belongs to respective owners and is provided only for wider dissemination.

 

 

References:

Axios. (2026, March 13). U.S. conducts major bombing of strategic Iran island. https://www.axios.com/2026/03/13/iran-strike-trump-us

Hamilton, J. D. (2011). Historical oil shocks. In R. E. Parker & R. M. Whaples (Eds.), The handbook of major events in economic history (pp. 239–265). Routledge.

International Energy Agency. (2023). World energy outlook 2023. International Energy Agency.

International Monetary Fund. (2024). World economic outlook: Commodity price shocks and global growth. IMF.

Mansour, M. (2026, March 11). The orphan pearl: Inside Kharg, the beating heart of Iran’s oil empire. Al Jazeera. https://www.aljazeera.com/features/2026/3/11/the-orphan-pearl-inside-kharg-the-beating-heart-of-irans-oil-empire

Reuters. (2026, March 14). Kharg Island struck by U.S. is key hub for Iran oil exports. https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/kharg-island-struck-by-us-is-key-hub-iran-oil-exports-2026-03-14

Reuters. (2026, March 14). Trump threatens strike on Iran’s Kharg Island oil network if shipping lanes remain blocked. https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/trump-threatens-strike-irans-kharg-island-oil-network-if-shipping-lanes-remain-2026-03-14

S&P Global Commodity Insights. (2025). Iran adds crude storage capacity at Kharg Island. https://www.spglobal.com/energy/en/news-research/latest-news/crude-oil/051825-iran-adds-2-million-barrels-of-crude-storage-capacity

Tehran Times. (2007). Iran exports over 90% of its crude oil via Kharg Island. https://www.tehrantimes.com/news/130703/Iran-exports-over-90-of-its-crude-oil-via-Kharg-Island

U.S. Energy Information Administration. (2024). World oil transit chokepoints. https://www.eia.gov/international/analysis/special-topics/World_Oil_Transit_Chokepoints

World Bank. (2024). Commodity markets outlook. World Bank.

749: ISRAEL’S CHANGE IN STRATEGY FROM “MOW THE GRASS” TO “UPROOT THE GRASS”

 

In the world of Israeli military strategy, terms like “mowing the grass” or “mowing the lawn” Vividly illustrate how they handle prolonged asymmetric warfare. These phrases paint a picture of regular military actions that are similar to keeping overgrown grass in check- meant more for containment than complete elimination. The idea is to keep threats under control, preventing them from spiralling out of hand, even though regrowth is expected. The term was introduced by Israeli scholars Efraim Inbar and Eitan Shamir in a 2014 paper, marking a practical shift away from the desire for decisive victories against state enemies. Instead, the focus has moved towards managing groups like Hamas through strategies of attrition and deterrence. This concept emerged in the early 2000s following the Second Intifada (2000–2005), reflecting the ongoing difficulty in resolving the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, where political solutions seem hard to reach amid deep-seated ideological differences.

At its core, the strategy reflects Israel’s defensive stance in a challenging regional environment. Instead of aiming for complete elimination—which might require a costly reoccupation of Gaza—Israel prefers to carry out cyclical operations to weaken militant capabilities and create moments of relative calm. This approach resonates with conflicts involving groups like Hamas, who took control of Gaza in 2007 and have since built a complex network of tunnels, rockets, and fighters. The metaphor highlights a sense of resigned acceptance: there’s no permanent resolution without tackling underlying issues like occupation, settlements, and blockades, which both sides see as non-negotiable.

 

Mow the Grass Strategy

Concept. The “mowing the grass” doctrine operates on the principle of limited warfare in asymmetric settings. Its objective is to limit Hamas’s ability to launch rockets, construct tunnels, or escalate attacks, thereby protecting Israeli civilians without committing to full-scale conquest. Means include airstrikes, targeted assassinations of leaders, and the destruction of weapon stockpiles and command centres. These actions aim for temporary threat reduction, often yielding years of reduced hostilities. Unlike traditional military strategies seeking an endgame, this one assumes endless cycles, calibrated to manage risks while avoiding the political and human costs of prolonged occupation.

Operational Logic. Operationally, it draws from the “Dahiya Doctrine,” which advocates disproportionate force to deter future aggression, as seen in the 2006 Lebanon War. This involves a “force/casualty tradeoff,” prioritising Israeli lives by accepting higher enemy losses, including civilians in densely populated areas. Proponents argue this is necessary against an implacable foe ideologically committed to Israel’s destruction, where pure deterrence fails. By imposing costs and delaying rearmament, the strategy reduces attack frequency and scale, allowing Israel to focus on economic growth and alliances.

Key Features. Key features include periodic operations triggered by escalations, such as rocket barrages from Gaza. These are short and sharp, designed to debilitate without toppling regimes that could spawn worse chaos. Escalation is controlled: powerful enough to erode capabilities but limited to minimise international backlash. The strategy reflects broader Israeli security philosophy, conflict management over conflict resolution, until a viable political settlement emerges.

Historical Implementation. Israel’s “mow the grass” strategy has been implemented through several significant military operations in Gaza since Hamas’s 2007 takeover. These operations, characterised by periodic and limited interventions, aim to degrade militant capabilities and achieve temporary deterrence. Below is a detailed overview of the significant operations, their key actions, and their outcomes.

    • Operation Cast Lead (2008–2009). Israel launched a combined air and ground assault on Hamas targets, coupled with the stringent enforcement of the Gaza blockade. The 22 days operation targeted militant infrastructure, including rocket launch sites and command centers. Approximately 1,400 Palestinians were killed, including around 300 militants, while 13 Israelis lost their lives. The operation achieved a temporary reduction in rocket attacks, but Hamas quickly rebuilt its capabilities, underscoring the cyclical nature of the strategy.
    • Operation Pillar of Defence (2012). Focused on airstrikes targeting rocket launch sites and assassinations of key Hamas operatives, this operation aimed to curb escalating rocket fire from Gaza. The 8-day conflict resulted in about 170 Palestinian deaths and 6 Israeli fatalities. An Egypt-mediated ceasefire led to roughly one year of reduced hostilities, demonstrating short-term deterrence but no lasting resolution.
    • Operation Protective Edge (2014). This 50-day operation involved a ground invasion alongside extensive airstrikes, with a focus on destroying Hamas’s tunnel network and weapons stockpiles. Approximately 2,200 Palestinians, mostly civilians, and 73 Israelis were killed. Israel’s Iron Dome system effectively intercepted rockets, but the high civilian toll in Gaza drew significant international criticism, eroding global support despite tactical successes.
    • Operation Guardian of the Walls (2021). Israel conducted airstrikes targeting high-rise buildings and tunnel systems used by Hamas in response to rocket barrages and regional tensions. Around 260 Palestinians and 13 Israelis were killed. The 11-day operation secured a brief period of calm but contributed to deepened radicalisation among Palestinians, highlighting the strategy’s limitations in fostering long-term stability.
    • Operation Breaking Dawn (2022). Targeted strikes were carried out against Palestinian Islamic Jihad, focusing on preemptive disruption of rocket capabilities and leadership. The 3-day operation resulted in 49 Palestinian deaths, including civilians, with no Israeli fatalities due to the Iron Dome’s 97% interception rate. It achieved short-term deterrence but did not alter the broader conflict dynamics.
    • Operation Iron Swords (2023–Ongoing). Triggered by the October 7, 2023, Hamas attack, this operation escalated into a full-scale invasion targeting Hamas’s regime and infrastructure, with unprecedented intensity. Reportedly, approximately 65,000 Palestinians and 2000 Israelis have been killed, with massive displacement in Gaza. This operation marks a shift from containment to an attempt at regime change, with ongoing regional ramifications and no clear resolution.

 

Views and Criticisms.

Divergent Views. Advocates see it as realistic for an unwinnable war. Hamas’s charter calls for Israel’s elimination, rendering diplomacy futile; thus, periodic mowing imposes costs, delays threats, and maintains deterrence. Israeli officials argue it’s the only viable option absent a partner for peace, preventing adversaries from gaining decisive edges like advanced weaponry. In think tanks, it’s praised for buying time until broader changes, such as regional normalisation deals.

Criticisms. Critics, including Palestinian voices and international observers, decry it as unsustainable and morally flawed. It treats symptoms (militant attacks) without addressing causes like the blockade’s humanitarian crisis, fostering poverty and radicalisation. The human cost is staggering: casualty disparities (thousands of Palestinians vs. dozens of Israelis) invite accusations of collective punishment and war crimes. The metaphor itself is dehumanising, equating people to “weeds” in a “lawn” to be mowed, and perpetuating a cycle of violence that boosts Hamas recruitment.

Palestinian Stand. From a Palestinian perspective, it’s seen as a tool of oppression, making Gaza unlivable through periodic “mowing” that destroys infrastructure and lives. Al Jazeera and others label it genocidal anatomy, arguing it normalises asymmetrical warfare where Israel “mows” without accountability. Human rights groups condemn the lack of proportionality, eroding Israel’s international legitimacy amid growing global criticism. Strategically, Hamas adapts with drones and longer-range rockets, exposing the approach’s hubris. Western analysts contrast it with counterinsurgency models emphasising governance, not just force.

 

Change in Strategy

The Hamas-led attack on October 7, 2023, killing 1,200 Israelis and taking 250 hostages, shattered the strategy’s assumptions, revealing deterrence failures. Israel’s response, Operation Iron Swords, marked a pivot from mowing to “uprooting” Hamas via regime change and demilitarisation. As of now, the campaign has killed thousands of Palestinians, displaced millions, and expanded to confront Hezbollah and Iran proxies. Some of the Israeli strategists, including Efraim Inbar, now advocate for a “complete victory” approach, arguing that periodic containment operations are inadequate to counter existential threats posed by groups like Hamas. This shift emphasises decisive regime change and demilitarisation to achieve lasting security.

This shift risks quagmire and regional war, with critics warning of self-perpetuating escalation without diplomacy. Palestinian analysts see it as an intensification of genocide, while Israeli doves lament the abandonment of management for maximalism. Stalled ceasefires underscore the impasse, with no clear endgame.

 

Conclusion

In a broader context, “mow the grass” encapsulates Israel’s adaptation to non-state threats, prioritising survival over resolution. Yet, post-October 7, it highlights the limits of management: delayed catastrophe but not prevention. Debates rage on whether bolder diplomacy or force offers a path forward, substantiated by decades of cycles. As Gaza’s humanitarian crisis deepens, the strategy’s evolution tests Israel’s resilience and global standing. Ultimately, without addressing underlying grievances, mowing or uprooting may only sow seeds for future conflict.

 

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Disclaimer:

Information and data included in the blog are for educational & non-commercial purposes only and have been carefully adapted, excerpted, or edited from reliable and accurate sources. All copyrighted material belongs to respective owners and is provided only for wider dissemination.

 

References:-

MeHr News Agency. 2024. “Israel Shifts Strategy: From ‘Mowing the Grass’ to ‘Victory.’” October 24, 2022.

Abu Amer, Adnan. 2024. “Is Israel Using Gaza’s ‘Mowing the Lawn’ Strategy in the West Bank?” The New Arab, September 5.

Cohen, Raphael S. 2023. “The Inevitable, Ongoing Failure of Israel’s Gaza Strategy.” RAND Commentary, October 18.

Gibilisco, Michael. 2023. “Mowing the Grass: A Theory of Conflict and Counterinsurgency.” Working Paper.

Shamir, Eitan. 2023. “The End of Mowing the Grass: If Israel Wants to Continue to Exist, It Must Uproot Hamas from Gaza.” BESA Center Perspectives Paper. Ramat Gan, Israel: Begin-Sadat Center for Strategic Studies. October 22.

Taylor, Adam. 2021. “The History of Israel ‘Mowing the Grass’ in Gaza.” Washington Post, May 14.

Reiff, Ben. 2018. “‘Mowing the Grass’ and the Force/Casualty Tradeoff: Israel’s Predictable Response to the Gaza Protests.” Middle East Centre Blog, London School of Economics and Political Science, May 10.

Cohen, Raphael S., David E. Johnson, David E. Thaler, Brenna Allen, Elizabeth M. Bartels, James Cahill, and Shira Efron. 2017. From Cast Lead to Protective Edge: Lessons from Israel’s Wars in Gaza. Research Report RR-1888. Santa Monica, CA: RAND Corporation.

Inbar, Efraim, and Eitan Shamir. 2014. “‘Mowing the Grass’: Israel’s Strategy for Protracted Intractable Conflict.” Journal of Strategic Studies 37 (1): 65–90.

Sherman, Martin, and Daniel Byman. 2014. “Mowing the Grass and Taking Out the Trash.” Foreign Policy, August 25.

Henriksen, Thomas H. 2014. “Mowing the Grass: Why Half-Measures Won’t Solve the Israeli-Palestinian Conflict.” Strategika (Hoover Institution Podcast), September 1.

Council for Arab-British Understanding (Caabu). 2012. “Humanitarian Factsheet: From ‘Cast Lead’ to ‘Pillar of Defence.’” London: Caabu.

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