829: Podcast with Abhinay

Had an interesting chat with Abhinay of Prabhasakshi News Channel.

We talked about: –

  1. New balance of air power in the world today.
  2. Drones and Fighter aircraft.
  3. Different philosophies of Russia’s Su-57 and the U.S.’s F-35.
  4. Future of air warfare
  5. Timelines of indigenous fifth-generation aircraft. (AMCA).
  6. Role of AI in air warfare.
  7. Loyal Wingman drones.
  8. F-35 / Su-57 / AMCA.
  9. Aircraft engine technology development and production.
  10. Export of fighter jets as a geopolitical tool and a source of dependency.
  11. India’s greatest achievements and biggest challenges in terms of defence self-reliance.
  12. Indian Air Force of 2040.
  13. One trend in air warfare over the next 20 years.
  14. Balakot Operations.

 

Value additions are most welcome.

 

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Information and data included in the blog are for educational & non-commercial purposes only and have been carefully adapted, excerpted, or edited from reliable and accurate sources. All copyrighted material belongs to the respective owners and is provided only for wider dissemination.

 

 

 

675: AMCA PROGRAMME EXECUTION MODEL: A NEW ERA FOR INDIA’S DEFENCE PRODUCTION

 

My Article published on the EurasianTimes website on 01 Jun 25.

 

India’s quest for self-reliance in defence technology has reached a pivotal milestone with the approval of the Advanced Medium Combat Aircraft (AMCA) Programme Execution Model on May 26, 2025. This model, greenlit by Defence Minister Rajnath Singh, introduces a collaborative and competitive framework to accelerate the development of India’s first indigenous fifth-generation stealth fighter jet. Designed by the Aeronautical Development Agency (ADA) under the Ministry of Defence, the AMCA is a 25-tonne, twin-engine, multirole stealth aircraft intended to bolster the Indian airpower capabilities by 2035. The new execution model emphasises private sector involvement, international collaboration, and a competitive bidding process, significantly departing from traditional defence procurement practices.

 

Advanced Medium Combat Aircraft. AMCA is India’s fifth-generation stealth fighter jet program, developed by the Aeronautical Development Agency (ADA) under the Defence Research and Development Organisation (DRDO). Designed as a multirole, twin-engine aircraft, the AMCA aims to replace ageing fleets such as the SEPECAT Jaguar and Mirage 2000, while complementing the Rafale and future Tejas Mk2 in the Indian Air Force (IAF). The 25-tonne, twin-engine AMCA features stealth shaping, internal weapons bays, and advanced sensor fusion. It is intended to excel in air superiority, deep strike, and electronic warfare missions. It will have an advanced avionics suite, Indigenous AESA radar, and potentially AI-based mission systems. The aircraft is envisioned in two phases: Mark 1 with current-generation technologies and imported engines, and Mark 2 incorporating Indigenous sixth-generation features and an Indian powerplant. The AMCA is strategically significant as it will enhance India’s air combat capabilities and reduce reliance on foreign platforms.

Strategic Significance of AMCA. The AMCA is not just a defence project but a strategic lever and India’s entry ticket into the elite club of fifth-generation fighter operators. The AMCA program is critical to countering regional threats, particularly from China and Pakistan. China’s deployment of J-20 and J-35 stealth fighters, with plans to supply 40 J-35s to Pakistan, underscores the urgency of AMCA’s development. The IAF’s modernisation drive, aiming for 42 squadrons by 2035, relies on the AMCA to maintain a technological edge. The collaborative model’s success could position India among the elite nations with fifth-generation fighters, alongside the US, China, and Russia.

 

Historical Progress: Bottlenecks. The AMCA program was conceived in the early 2010s as a follow-on to the Light Combat Aircraft (LCA) Tejas. However, despite its strategic importance, progress was tepid due to multiple challenges. Initial timelines projected a first flight by 2020 and production by 2025, but these slipped to 2028 and 2038-39 due to funding constraints and bureaucratic delays. The program’s preliminary design phase began in 2015, with CCS approval only in 2024. The Tejas program’s prolonged development (from the 1980s to the late 2010s) is a cautionary tale, highlighting systemic issues in India’s defence ecosystem. The program lacked an empowered governance structure, slow decision-making, and HAL’s overburdened capacity. The absence of an indigenous high-thrust engine has been a persistent hurdle for the program; the Kaveri engine program’s inability to meet requirements forced reliance on foreign engines, delaying self-reliance. India lacked expertise in advanced technologies and high-thrust engines, necessitating foreign collaboration. The withdrawal from the Indo-Russian FGFA project in 2018 due to disagreements over technology transfer forced a fully indigenous approach, increasing technical risks. The new execution model addresses many of these issues by decentralising authority, attracting capital, and professionalising development.

 

Boosting the AMCA Program

Collaborative Execution Model. Announced on May 26, 2025, the AMCA Programme Execution Model introduces a public-private partnership (PPP) framework, moving away from the traditional reliance on Hindustan Aeronautics Limited (HAL) as the sole manufacturer. The new model proposes a Special Purpose Vehicle (SPV)-based framework, with a private sector partner who will work alongside the Aeronautical Development Agency (ADA), Hindustan Aeronautics Limited (HAL), and the Indian Air Force (IAF).  Under this model, the ADA will issue an Expression of Interest (EoI) to public and private entities, allowing them to bid independently or as consortia. The model offers flexibility to include global OEMs as technology partners or equity stakeholders in the SPV. This shift signifies a bold experiment breaking free from India’s traditionally state-dominated defence production ecosystem. It promises to enhance project accountability, bring commercial rigour to execution, and facilitate foreign direct investment and technology infusion. The competitive approach aims to streamline development, reduce costs, and integrate cutting-edge technologies. One of the most progressive steps is to move from a nomination-based to a competitive merit-based selection model. The collaborative model is expected to provide several key benefits to the AMCA program.

Encouraging Efficiency and Speed.  By involving private sector firms alongside HAL, the model diversifies the production base, reducing bottlenecks associated with a single manufacturer. Private companies would bring agility, innovation, and financial muscle, which can accelerate manufacturing and delivery timelines. The Ministry of Defence (MoD) has emphasised reducing timelines. Firms will be incentivised to optimise costs and timelines to win bids, reducing the bureaucratic delays that plagued earlier phases of the AMCA program. The Combined Quality Cum Cost Based System (CQCCBS) model will evaluate bids based on technical and financial merits, ensuring high-quality outcomes.

Technology Integration. Including private firms would enable access to advanced manufacturing techniques and expertise in composites, avionics, and AI. The collaboration is expected to enhance the AMCA’s technological edge, aligning it with global fifth-generation standards.

Economic and Industrial Growth. The model would foster a robust domestic aerospace ecosystem, generating employment and technological advancements. By distributing work packages among private firms, the program stimulates investment in infrastructure and skilled workforce development, aligning with India’s “Atmanirbhar Bharat” vision for self-reliance.

Risk Mitigation. The collaborative approach spreads financial and technical risks across multiple stakeholders, reducing the burden on HAL and the government. This is particularly crucial given the program’s history of delays and funding shortages.

 

Technological Challenges

However, challenges remain. Establishing fighter jet manufacturing facilities requires significant investment, and private firms may face hurdles in acquiring land, infrastructure, and skilled labour. Scepticism persists about their ability to match HAL’s experience, which could lead to initial teething issues. The AMCA’s development involves overcoming significant technological hurdles, particularly in stealth and engine capabilities.

Stealth Technology. Achieving a low radar cross-section (RCS) is critical for the AMCA’s fifth-generation credentials. The AMCA incorporates a twin-tail layout, platform edge alignment, and diverterless supersonic inlet (DSI) with serpentine ducts to conceal engine fan blades. However, refining radar deflection capabilities is essential. India is developing RAM to reduce RCS, with IIT Kanpur’s Anālakṣhya Meta-material Surface Cloaking System (MSCS) enhancing stealth against Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR). Scaling this technology for industrial production remains a challenge. Stealth design compromises aerodynamics, reducing manoeuvrability. Balancing these aspects requires advanced computational modelling and wind-tunnel testing.

Engine Capabilities. The AMCA’s supercruise and thrust vectoring requirements demand a high-thrust engine, posing significant challenges. India’s lack of indigenous jet engine technology remains a bottleneck. Achieving sustained supersonic flight without afterburners and enabling thrust vectoring for enhanced manoeuvrability requires advanced engine designs. Integrating these systems into the AMCA’s airframe is technically demanding. The Kaveri engine project highlighted the gaps in materials science and manufacturing precision, necessitating foreign expertise.

 

International Collaboration

The AMCA program’s success hinges on robust private sector and international partners participation. Opening the doors to foreign OEMs and global collaboration is a key differentiator of the new model. Foreign OEMs from Russia, France, the UK, and the US are expected to play a crucial role, particularly in addressing technological gaps. Several roles are envisioned for global partners.

Collaborations ensure technology transfer, critical for building India’s aerospace capabilities. Technology transfer is expected, particularly for stealth shaping, radar-absorbing materials (RAM), advanced avionics, and sensors. Foreign partners can provide expertise in radar-absorbing materials, low-observable designs, and AESA radar systems. The US, with its F-35 program, and Russia, with the Su-57, offer valuable insights, though India’s withdrawal from the Indo-Russian FGFA project in 2018 underscores its focus on indigenous control.

India lacks an indigenous jet engine for the project. The AMCA Mk-1 will use GE Aerospace F414 engines (98 kN), while the Mk-2 requires a 110-120 kN engine. France’s Safran is in advanced talks for co-development, leveraging offset obligations from the Rafale deal. Rolls-Royce has offered to co-design and co-develop, allowing India to retain IP rights. Russia’s expertise in thrust vectoring and the US’s advanced engine technologies are also under consideration. Collaboration with GE (U.S.), Safran (France), or Rolls-Royce (UK) is vital.

 

Implications for HAL: From Monopoly to Competition

HAL, long seen as India’s defence aviation behemoth, now faces a significant paradigm shift. While HAL will remain a stakeholder in the AMCA program, it will no longer enjoy uncontested leadership. Its role is expected to evolve from sole integrator to collaborator, contributing expertise in production, system integration, and testing infrastructure. This transformation could prove beneficial if HAL adapts proactively.  However, the threat of being sidelined if it fails to remain competitive could motivate internal reforms, increase efficiency, and push HAL toward greater innovation and collaboration. Including foreign OEMs and private firms in the AMCA program will have profound implications for HAL.

 

Shift from Monopoly to Competition. HAL’s role as the default manufacturer is no longer guaranteed. It must now bid alongside private giants, which could challenge its dominance but also push it to improve efficiency and innovation.

Technology Transfer Opportunities. Collaboration with foreign OEMs like Safran (France) and Rolls-Royce (UK) for engine development offers HAL access to advanced technologies. However, HAL must navigate intellectual property (IP) agreements to ensure India retains significant control.

 Capacity Constraints. HAL’s current workload strains its resources, including 180 Tejas Mk-1A aircraft and four Tejas Mk-2 prototypes. The competitive model would allow HAL to focus on core competencies like final assembly while outsourcing subassemblies to private firms, potentially alleviating pressure.

 

Challenges Ahead

While the execution model marks a shift, several hurdles remain.

    • SPV Selection & Governance. Choosing the right private partner with financial depth, technical competence, and political neutrality is critical.
    • IP Ownership. Managing intellectual property rights, especially with foreign OEMs, will require legal finesse.
    • Funding Certainty. The AMCA requires an estimated ₹15,000–20,000 crore for development. Ensuring uninterrupted funding from all stakeholders will be vital.
    • Workforce & Skill Gaps. India’s aerospace talent pool must scale up to meet the design, integration, and production demands.
    • Export Potential. Safeguards and foreign collaboration agreements should not hinder India from exporting the platform to friendly nations.

 

Conclusion

The announcement of a collaborative execution model for AMCA on 26 May 2025 could be the inflexion point the program needed. The model addresses historical delays and technological gaps by fostering competition, involving private firms, and leveraging international expertise. While HAL’s role remains pivotal, shifting toward a diversified production base could redefine India’s defence manufacturing landscape. For a nation striving for strategic autonomy, technological self-reliance, and regional superiority, the success of the AMCA is non-negotiable. However, its execution depends on how well India can manage the complex dynamics of competition, collaboration, and capability development. If the SPV model succeeds, it could become the blueprint for all future high-tech defence platforms in India—from UAVs to next-gen submarines.

 

Please Add Value to the write-up with your views on the subject.

 

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References and credits

To all the online sites and channels.

Pics Courtesy: Internet

Disclaimer:

Information and data included in the blog are for educational & non-commercial purposes only and have been carefully adapted, excerpted, or edited from reliable and accurate sources. All copyrighted material belongs to respective owners and is provided only for wider dissemination.

 

 

References:-

  1. Ministry of Defence, Government of India. Press Release: “Collaborative Execution Model for AMCA Programme Announced”, 26 May 2025.
  1. Aeronautical Development Agency (ADA). Overview of the Advanced Medium Combat Aircraft (AMCA) Programme.
  1. Pubby, Manu. “India’s AMCA fighter jet project to get private sector partner.” The Economic Times, May 2025.
  1. Unnithan, Sandeep. “How AMCA Will Shape India’s Future Air Power.” India Today Defence, April 2025.
  2. Raju, R. “Challenges in India’s Military Jet Engine Development.” ORF Occasional Paper No. 404, Observer Research Foundation, 2024.
  3. Joshi, Manoj. “India’s Quest for Strategic Autonomy through Defence Indigenisation.” Centre for Policy Research, 2023.
  4. DRDO Annual Report 2023–24. Chapter on Aeronautics R&D and Indigenous Fighter Programs.
  1. GlobalSecurity.org. “AMCA – Advanced Medium Combat Aircraft (India).”
  1. FlightGlobal. “India Eyes Foreign Partners for AMCA Jet Engine Collaboration.” March 2024.
  1. Vivek, Raghuvanshi. “India’s AMCA Jet to Fly with GE Engine Initially, Indigenous Powerplant Planned Later.” Defence News, July 2024.
  2. Roy, Shubhajit. “France’s Safran Proposes Joint Development of Jet Engine for India’s AMCA.” The Indian Express, January 2024.
  3. Singh, Abhijit Iyer-Mitra. “Fifth-Generation Fighter Development: Why India Needs to Rethink.” VIF Brief, Vivekananda International Foundation, 2023.

625: F-35 DILEMMA REVISITED: BALANCING AFFORDABILITY, CAPABILITY AND TRADE-OFFS.

 

My Article published on the EurasianTimes Website on 19 Mar 25.

 

In an interesting development, Portugal, Canada, and Germany are hesitating over the F-35. These developments can be both a challenge and an opportunity for India, whether India should jump into the fray and take the risk or stay away.

 

Indian Worries. India’s worries include operational and maintenance challenges, US policy uncertainty and technology transfer issues. Countries reconsidering their F-35 purchases usually cite concerns about high operational costs, maintenance complexities, and reliability issues. If a country like Canada, with a strong NATO supply chain, has problems, India, without an established F-35 ecosystem, could face serious logistics nightmares. India has historically struggled with restrictive American defence deals (e.g., CAATSA concerns with Russia). If Canada and Portugal are reconsidering under U.S. influence, India’s potential F-35 deal might come with diplomatic strings attached. Moreover, the U.S. is unlikely to share deep tech integration rights.

 

Opportunity. On the bright side, the cancellations by these countries could open up production slots, potentially leading to expedited deliveries if India proceeds with an F-35 deal. Furthermore, under these circumstances, Lockheed Martin may be more accommodating in pricing or support agreements with India. A limited number of F-35s could act as a stepping stone to India’s indigenous AMCA program, providing valuable 5th-gen combat experience until India develops its own.

 

Balancing Affordability and Capability.  Balancing affordability and capability in fighter acquisition programs is a complex and intellectually stimulating challenge in defence procurement. Modern fighter jets, with their advanced avionics, stealth technology, and weapons systems, are not just engineering marvels but also strategic assets that can dominate air, land, and sea. However, these capabilities come at a steep cost, and governments must grapple with budgetary constraints while ensuring their air forces remain capable of addressing current and future threats.

 

Trade-offs. Understanding and navigating the myriad trade-offs in fighter aircraft acquisition programs are a cornerstone of defence procurement. Balancing performance, cost, operational requirements, and strategic objectives is a complex task that governments and military planners must master to ensure optimal capability within the constraints of their resources. This knowledge empowers decision-makers and enhances the effectiveness of defence strategies.

 

Trade-Offs for Consideration in Fighter Acquisition Programs

Cost vs. Capability. A fundamental trade-off in fighter acquisition is between cost and capability. High-end fifth-generation fighters like the F-35 and the F-22 offer unparalleled performance but come at an exorbitant price. More cost-effective alternatives, such as the F-16 or the Gripen, may lack some advanced features but remain viable options for many air forces. Nations must decide whether to prioritise cutting-edge technology or opt for a more extensive fleet with slightly reduced capabilities.

 

Multirole Flexibility vs. Specialisation. Many modern fighters, such as the F-35 and Rafale, are designed as multirole platforms capable of performing air-to-air, air-to-ground, and electronic warfare missions. This flexibility reduces fleet diversity but may lead to compromises in specific roles. In contrast, specialised aircraft like the A-10 Thunderbolt II excel in close air support but lack air superiority capabilities. Decision-makers must weigh whether a single multirole platform meets their needs or if specialised aircraft are necessary.

 

Short-Term vs. Long-Term Investment. Some nations prioritise acquiring proven, off-the-shelf platforms that provide immediate operational capability, while others invest in the long-term development of next-generation aircraft. The former minimises short-term risks but may become outdated sooner. The latter approach, seen in programs like the Tempest and NGAD, is high-risk but ensures future technological superiority.

 

Fleet Size vs. High-End Technology. Budget constraints often force militaries to choose between a more extensive fleet of less advanced fighters or a smaller number of top-tier aircraft. A more comprehensive fleet provides more coverage and sortie rates, while a smaller fleet of high-end fighters offers superior combat capability. For instance, many nations supplement their fleets of expensive stealth aircraft with cheaper fourth-generation fighters to maintain numbers.

 

Capability vs. Quantity. Nations must decide between procuring fewer advanced jets or a more extensive fleet of less capable aircraft. For instance, the U.S. chose to supplement its high-end F-22 fleet with the more affordable F-35, while countries like China and Russia have emphasised quantity to ensure strategic depth.

 

Indigenous Development vs. Foreign Procurement. Countries face a strategic choice between developing domestic fighter programs and purchasing from foreign suppliers. Indigenous programs, such as India’s Tejas/AMCA or South Korea’s KF-21, promote self-sufficiency but require significant research and industrial infrastructure investment. Buying foreign jets ensures immediate capability but can lead to dependency on external suppliers.

 

Indigenous Fighter Development for Cost-Effectiveness. India’s HAL Tejas was developed to reduce reliance on foreign fighters while maintaining affordability. Designed with modular upgrades in mind, the Tejas has gradually improved with better radar, weapons integration, and avionics. Despite delays in development, its affordability compared to Western counterparts has made it an attractive option for India’s long-term air power strategy.

 

Balancing Affordability and Capability

Balancing affordability and capability in fighter acquisition programs is a complex but essential task for modern air forces. Governments must ensure that their aircraft provide operational effectiveness without exceeding budgetary constraints. The following best practices help achieve this balance.

 

Comprehensive Lifecycle Planning. A fighter jet’s cost extends far beyond its initial acquisition price. Governments must consider long-term expenses, including operation, maintenance, upgrades, and eventual disposal. Comprehensive lifecycle cost analysis, which involves estimating all costs associated with a system over its entire life, helps mitigate budgetary surprises and ensures financial sustainability over decades of service.

 

Incremental Upgrades. Modern fighter jets should have modular systems and open architectures to accommodate incremental upgrades. This approach extends an aircraft’s service life while spreading costs over time. The F-16 Fighting Falcon, introduced in the 1970s, remains operational due to continuous upgrades in avionics, radar, and weapons. This strategy prevents obsolescence while reducing the need for costly new aircraft acquisitions.

 

Focus on Multi-Role Capability. Multi-role fighters provide greater operational flexibility by performing various missions with a single platform. The Dassault Rafale exemplifies this concept, capable of air-to-air combat, ground attack, and reconnaissance missions. This versatility allows air forces to reduce the number of specialised aircraft types, simplifying logistics and maintenance while lowering overall costs.

 

Prioritising Export Potential. Designing fighter jets with exportability in mind helps amortise development costs and reduce per-unit expenses. Countries that successfully market their fighters to foreign buyers can reinvest revenues into further technological advancements.

 

Emerging Trends and Technologies. Technological advancements are reshaping how air forces balance affordability and capability. The following emerging trends offer cost-effective solutions while enhancing combat effectiveness.

 

Unmanned Systems. Unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) and ‘loyal wingman’ drones, which are autonomous aircraft that operate alongside manned aircraft, complement traditional fighter jets by taking on high-risk missions at a lower cost. These platforms can conduct reconnaissance, electronic warfare, and combat operations without endangering pilots. Programs like the Boeing MQ-28 Ghost Bat highlight the growing role of UAVs and ‘loyal wingman’ drones in modern air combat.

 

Artificial Intelligence. AI-powered systems improve decision-making, enhance situational awareness, and reduce pilot workload. Advanced AI integration enables autonomous operations, making fighters more effective while potentially reducing crew training costs. AI-driven mission planning and adaptive combat algorithms are key to next-generation fighter capabilities.

 

Conclusion

Balancing affordability and capability in fighter acquisition programs is a complex but essential endeavour. As nations face evolving threats and fiscal constraints, the ability to make strategic trade-offs will determine their air power’s effectiveness. By embracing innovative technologies and fostering international collaboration, governments can achieve an optimal balance that ensures operational readiness and financial sustainability.

 

India traditionally prefers non-restrictive platforms like the Rafale and Su-30MKI that allow customisation. The F-35, despite its advanced stealth and networking, is deeply tied to U.S. control mechanisms. If Germany, Canada, and Portugal, NATO allies with solid U.S. interoperability, are hesitating, India must be doubly cautious before signing anything. The Big Question, however, remains whether India should even consider the F-35. After analysing the factors mentioned earlier, the current answer is negative (even with faster delivery schedules).  

 

For considering the F-35 as a potential option for India, several critical concerns must be addressed to make it a viable choice. Foremost among these is the issue of technology transfer and support to Indigenous aircraft development. Operational sovereignty is essential, as any restrictions imposed by the U.S. could limit India’s ability to integrate indigenous systems and conduct independent upgrades. Cost considerations (including procurement, maintenance, and lifecycle expenses) must be carefully weighed against alternative platforms. Geopolitical reliability is another key factor, given past U.S. sanctions and export restrictions that could impact fleet sustainability. Finally, interoperability with India’s existing fleet and infrastructure must be thoroughly assessed to ensure seamless integration without excessive logistical burdens. Addressing these concerns through ironclad agreements and long-term strategic assurances would be essential for India even to consider the F-35 option (in limited numbers).

 

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Disclaimer:

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