Category: war and warfare

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393: ISRAEL CONFLICT: SPECULATIONS & NEWS Vis-à-vis ANALYSIS & VIEWS

 

(In random order)

 

Speculation: It is a failure of Israeli intelligence.

# Have they intentionally allowed it to happen?

      • To gain legitimacy to crush HAMAS.
      • Reunite Israelis, as fault lines had started appearing in Israel (Since January 2023, large-scale protests have been taking place across Israel in response to the government’s push for a wide-ranging judicial overhaul).

# Doesn’t seem to be true as the human cost is too high.

 

News: A barrage of rockets (more than 2,000 rockets) slammed into southern and central Israel.

# All operations start with LR Vectors to create disruption, destruction, and chaos, followed by attack of surface forces.

 

News: Infiltration initially was through tunnels, powered hang gliders, followed by a land route after the demolition of the fence. Even infiltration was attempted from the sea route.

# These methods would be picked up even by terrorist outfits for sub-con activities.

# Tunnels and drones are already being used by terror groups on the India-Pakistan border.

 

News: Dozens of fighter jets and other aircraft of the IDF targeted 17 military facilities and four operational headquarters of the Hamas terrorist organisation throughout the Gaza Strip.

# Fighter aircraft strikes are still a preferred option in non-contested airspace with no AD weapons.

# Drawing lessons from the Ukraine war, The IDF operations, and the HAMAS actions would take a different turn If countries sympathetic to Palestinians, armed them with shoulder-fired AD weapons.

 

View: Israeli Retaliation will be fierce and ruthless.

# It will cause high levels of casualties and collateral damage. The common man suffers in this cycle of hate.

# The chance of peace coming to the region will diminish further.

 

Speculation: Hamas must be banking on support (financial, military and diplomatic) from the Islamic states (primarily Iran, Turkey, Saudi Arabia, other Gulf States, and Egypt).

# Hamas does not have the military capability to take on IDF on its own.

# The conflict could spread in some or the other form to other states.

# On one hand the conflict is between the East and the West (eg Ukraine) and on the other hand, on religious divide (Islam vs rest).

# China has a reason to rejoice in either case.

 

Observation: The Hamas attack commenced on the day of the Sabbath.

# Military history is replete with wars commencing on dates when the enemy is likely to be off guard.

# In hostile and tense circumstances, the alertness level needs to be increased on such dates and occasions.

 

Speculation: What would be the response of Arab countries?

# It would be interesting to wait and watch in view of the fact that some of them have improved their relations with Israel recently.

 

Thought: How will it affect the Ukraine war?

# US attention will get divided.

 

Thinking Point: Impact on India and appropriate response.

# Another tightrope walk for India to not join any camp.

# Military supplies from Israel and cooperation would slow down.

# Take off of the India-Middle East-Europe Economic Corridor (IMEE-EC) would get delayed if not derailed.

 

Comparison: Whose narrative has greater acceptance and credibility?

# Israel is losing credibility due to recent actions leading up to this stage.

# Hamas is losing credibility due to the way they are killing and treating Israeli citizens.

 

View: This was bound to happen as the IDF was killing protesting Palestinian youth over the last few months. Palestinians reached their limits of forbearance.

# It is quite possible, with Palestinians surrounded and boxed in the Gaza Strip and West Bank, with no freedom, no control over basic necessities like food,  water, and electricity, and constant harassment and encroachment.

# Although not advocated, Israel could learn from China the art of keeping the pot boiling, maintaining below a certain threshold, and making gradual gains.

 

Lesson: Role of media is important for influencing opinions.

 

 

Coming up: Detailed Analysis.

 

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References and credits

To all the online sites and channels.

 

Disclaimer:

Information and data included in the blog are for educational & non-commercial purposes only and have been carefully adapted, excerpted, or edited from sources deemed reliable and accurate. All copyrighted material belongs to respective owners and is provided only for purposes of wider dissemination.

 

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392: HAMAS ATTACK ON ISRAEL

 

 

This morning Hamas’s launch of attack on Israel.

 

Rocket attacks were followed by the demolition of the Gaza fence, and infiltration on land and through para hang gliders.

 

Armed Hamas fighters infiltrated Israeli communities and started going house to house and killing innocent people.

 

Hamas is Killing civilians, taking hostages, and parading injured/killed (parading of semi-naked bodies of Israeli women is deplorable).

 

HAMAS Narrative.

 

The actions of today are a result of 75 years of Israeli occupation and terror against the Palestinian people.

Israel is an illegal apartheid state with the aim to wipe out the Palestinian people from their land. We will resist.

 

Israeli Retaliation

 

Operation Swords of Iron.

 

Israel has begun counter-terror strikes against Hamas.

 

The IDF is initiating a large-scale operation to defend Israeli civilians against the combined attack launched against Israel by Hamas this morning.

 

Israeli Justification and Legitimacy.

 

Earlier this morning armed Hamas terrorists infiltrated Israeli communities and started going house to house and murdering innocent Israelis.  Some of the images are very disturbing. We will take every measure to protect our citizens and target those who harm them.

 

Israeli PM

 

 

 “We are at war, not in an operation”.

 

“I convened the heads of the security establishment and ordered – first of all – to clear out the communities that have been infiltrated by terrorists”. This currently is being carried out.

 

“ I have ordered an extensive mobilization of reserves and that we return fire of a magnitude that the enemy has not known. The enemy will pay an unprecedented price”.

 

Israeli appeal.

“We are strong enough. We don’t need the help. But we need your support and understanding…The good people and the good states of the world and India is among them. This is very, very important for us.”

 

Indian Stand

 

Indian Advisory

 

 

News and Pictures courtesy Internet.

 

Analysis Follows.

 

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388: Q & A SERIES: IAF – AI POWERED UNMANNED PLATFORMS, SPACE OPS AND FUTURE CHALLENGES

 

? Response to Questionnaire ?

 

  1. In your opinion, how do advancements in AI Pilots have the potential to transform future aerial operations and impact Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAVs)?

 

  • AI, Quantum Computing, and Miniaturisation are technologies with maximum impact on air warfare. The combination of these increases the computing power of the aerial systems while reducing their weight and size.

 

  • AI-powered UAVs are the future of the air warfare.

 

  • The combination of unmanned aerial platforms and long-range vectors is changing warfare into “No Contact Warfare”.

 

  • Future air warfare will see the next generation of aerial platforms wherein a combination of manned and unmanned platforms will work as a team. The concept is being called the “Loyal Wing Man Concept” (I call it the “Mother Goose Concept”). Work is going on toward it worldwide including India.

 

  • The second future trend is Swarm Technology, wherein, several small (Some as small as insects) drones would work in unison towards a defined task.

 

  • Anti-drone systems will also develop. These systems will contain multi-sensors and an assortment of weapons for hard or soft kill. They will be AI-powered to process the large amounts of information being generated.

 

  1. Regarding the critical aspect of securing Air Superiority, particularly in the context of the Sino-Indian Arena and the Indo-Pak scenario, do you believe the Indian Air Force (IAF) is adequately prepared for the challenges of the future? What, in your view, are the essential requirements for the IAF to meet these challenges effectively?

 

  • IAF always works on plans. The first one is to fight with whatever it has and the second is for capability development for future challenges.

 

  • Over the last nine decades (especially in the last four decades) air warfare capabilities (like strategic airlift, precision, Standoff, all-weather round-the-clock operation, high altitude ops, etc.) of the IAF have improved significantly.

 

  • At present IAF still can make the difference and provide the asymmetry while dealing with current challenges. However, its war-fighting endurance (numerical strength of fighter and combat support aircraft) needs to be boosted.

 

  • Capability and capacity development is a continuous process. The future trajectory should cater to future challenges. Some of the essential requirements to deal with future challenges would require:-

 

      • Enhancement of War Endurance.

 

      • Infusion of Technology (Quantum, AI, Hypersonic, Stealth, etc.)

 

      • Reorientation & reorganisation to deal with Grey Zone operations and warfare in domains of warfare like Cyber, Space, Information, and Electronics.

 

      • Integration with surface forces and government agencies for the whole of government response.

 

      • Self-reliant defence industry.

 

  1. Recognizing the strategic significance of Space in Future Air Warfare, how imperative do you believe it is for India to make the necessary considerations and investments in this domain?

 

  • Space has permeated into every aspect of life (communications, surveys, education, banking, traffic management, health care disaster management, etc.).

 

  • It has also become an essential domain in warfare (for communications, surveillance, navigation targeting, etc.).

 

  • The long-range vectors Including Hypersonic) and new-generation platforms are using the medium of space.

 

  • In such a scenario of high dependence on space-based systems, space warfare (i.e. denial of space operations to the enemy and freedom of own forces to use the medium of space) both offensive and defensive becomes very important.

 

  • India’s space program is progressing well, however, the space-based technologies and systems are developed first for civilian use and then for the military. This work needs to go on in parallel.

 

  • Private participation besides public R&D and industry is essential.

 

  • An appropriate organisation needs to be set up to harness space and deal with space warfare. Advanced Air Forces like The USAF have a space command. China has gone a step further by making a separate service (Joint Strategic Support Force) to deal with all four domains (Cyber, Space, Information, and Electronic).

 

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References and credits

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Disclaimer:

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