817: HISTORICAL PERSPECTIVE ON THE INDIA–CHINA BOUNDARY DISPUTE

 

(The line that was never agreed upon)

 

Stretching from the Karakoram ranges in the west to the forested hills of Arunachal Pradesh in the east (approximately 3,488 kilometres) is the boundary between India and China, which occupies Tibet. It is not a border that was drawn, agreed upon, demarcated, and then disputed. It is a frontier that was never fully settled in the first place. It is a line that exists, as a matter of competing cartographic assertions rooted in imperial history, post-colonial nationalism, and unresolved strategic calculation.

To understand why Indian and Chinese soldiers confronted each other with lethal consequences at Galwan in June 2020, one must go back not merely decades but centuries. The boundary dispute is, at its core, a collision between the territorial inheritance of the British Indian Empire, the historical assertions of Imperial China, the revolutionary confidence of the People’s Republic of China, and the aspirational sovereignty of independent India. All of these forces remain alive in the dispute today.

 

Genesis of the Problem

The problem did not exist till the nineteenth century. It became one as the British Empire pushed its frontiers toward the Himalayas. British India’s interest in the Himalayan frontier was driven primarily by the strategic competition with Tsarist Russia for influence over Central Asia. A clearly defined, defensible northern frontier was a British strategic imperative. From the 1860s onward, British surveyors, explorers, and political officers pushed into Ladakh, Sikkim, and the northeastern frontier with the dual purpose of mapping the terrain and establishing the reach of British Indian sovereignty.

The critical complication was Tibet. Britain’s preferred outcome was a Tibet autonomous enough to serve as a buffer against Russian or Chinese encroachment, but within a broad sphere of British influence. The 1904 Younghusband Expedition to Lhasa was an expression of this policy. It was an extraordinary and controversial mission that forced a treaty on the Tibetan government.

The Qing dynasty’s response was to reassert direct control over Tibet, sending military expeditions in 1910 that briefly occupied Lhasa and forced the Dalai Lama into exile in British India. The Qing’s collapse in 1911 reversed this, and Tibet declared independence (not recognised by China).  The genesis of the boundary dispute lies in the status of Tibet. Tibet’s boundaries with British India were precisely the boundaries that India inherited in 1947, and that China refused to accept when it absorbed Tibet in 1950.

 

Colonial Cartographic Legacy

The Western Sector: Aksai Chin. Aksai Chin is a high-altitude desert plateau roughly the size of Switzerland, sitting at the intersection of Ladakh, Tibet, and Xinjiang. It is one of the most inhospitable places on earth. The boundary in this sector was never formally agreed upon between British India and either the Qing dynasty or, subsequently, the Republic of China. Different alignment proposals emerged from the British period, each reflecting different strategic priorities, none the product of bilateral agreement.

    • Johnson Line of 1865. Civil servant W.H. Johnson formulated it and was later modified by Major General John Ardagh. It placed the entire Aksai Chin plateau inside Jammu and Kashmir by extending the boundary northward to the Kunlun Mountains. It is the historical basis for India’s modern territorial claim.
    • Macartney-MacDonald Line of 1899. It was proposed to the Qing government by Sir Claude MacDonald. The British strategic priorities had shifted toward conciliating China against Russia. It proposed that the Karakoram range be used as the frontier and that most of Aksai Chin be placed under Chinese administration. The Qing government never formally responded to this proposal. China now asserts by it.

The Eastern Sector. The eastern sector’s origins lie in the Simla Convention of 1914, a tripartite conference among British India, Tibet, and the Republic of China. The British representative, Sir Henry McMahon, negotiated directly with Tibetan representatives and, through an exchange of notes, established a boundary between British India and Tibet running along the highest ridgeline of the eastern Himalayas. This alignment, known as the McMahon Line, ran approximately 890 kilometres from the Bhutan border eastward to the bend of the Brahmaputra and placed approximately 90,000 square kilometres of territory, now the state of Arunachal Pradesh, within British India. The Chinese representative at Simla initialled the convention but refused to formally ratify it, objecting both to the proposed internal division of Tibet into Inner and Outer zones and to the fundamental premise that Tibet possessed the sovereign authority to conclude treaties independently of China. China has consistently maintained that the McMahon Line is illegal as it was negotiated without the Chinese consent. China refers to Arunachal Pradesh as “South Tibet” or Zangnan, with particular emphasis on the town of Tawang, which carries deep religious and historical significance as a major centre of Tibetan Buddhism. India considers the McMahon Line as a valid international boundary.

 

Post-Colonial Differences (1947 to 1959)

India’s independence in 1947 and the establishment of the People’s Republic of China in 1949 initially produced not confrontation but an era of proclaimed Asian solidarity. India was among the first non-communist countries to recognise the People’s Republic. Hindi-Chini Bhai-Bhai was the slogan of the early 1950s. It reflected Jawaharlal Nehru’s genuine belief in Asian cooperation as the organising principle of post-colonial international relations.

The geopolitical cushion between the two countries vanished in 1950 when the Chinese People’s Liberation Army entered Tibet. India had historically viewed Tibet as an autonomous cultural buffer state with which it shared deep spiritual and trade connections. China’s absorption of Tibet transformed that buffer into a direct shared frontier of over 3,500 kilometres, and border ambiguity became a strategic security issue of the first order.

The Panchsheel agreement of 1954 between Nehru and Zhou Enlai embedded the Five Principles of Peaceful Coexistence. The two leaders jointly championed it as the framework for a new Asian order. What the agreement also did, critically, was recognise Chinese sovereignty over Tibet without resolving the boundary question. In retrospect, India traded its strongest diplomatic card (the legal ambiguity of Tibet’s status) for a set of principles without securing a boundary settlement in exchange.

Two developments then shattered the remaining foundations of the relationship. First was the 1957 discovery of the Chinese road through Aksai Chin. It was built entirely across territory India considered its own, and completed without India’s knowledge.  Second, the Tibetan uprising of 1959 and the subsequent flight of the Dalai Lama to India, where he was granted political asylum, fundamentally fractured bilateral trust. Beijing interpreted India’s action as active interference in its internal sovereignty and as an attempt to subvert Chinese consolidation of Tibet. The period of brotherhood was over.

In 1959, Chinese Premier Zhou Enlai put forward a proposal that would prove a pivotal missed moment: China would recognise the McMahon Line in the east if India accepted Chinese claims over Aksai Chin in the west. Nehru rejected the offer. It was also in 1959 that Zhou Enlai first used the term “Line of Actual Control” in a letter to Nehru, defining it as the line up to which each side exercised actual control.

 

War Over the Dispute

In an attempt to check further Chinese advances without provoking all-out conflict, Prime Minister Nehru instituted the “Forward Policy” in late 1961. India established small military outposts in disputed areas. Beijing interpreted this not as a defensive manoeuvre but as a continuation of British-style forward expansionism into the Tibetan borderlands.

The Sino-Indian War of October to November 1962 is a significant event. On 20 October 1962, the People’s Liberation Army launched simultaneous offensives across both the Western and Eastern Sectors. The Indian forces were overwhelmed. In the east, Chinese forces advanced deep, nearly reaching the plains of Assam. In the west, they consolidated their hold over Aksai Chin.

On 21 November 1962, China declared a unilateral ceasefire and withdrew its troops twenty kilometres behind what it defined as the Line of Actual Control in the Eastern Sector, but maintained its positions in Aksai Chin. The war facts on the ground that persist to the present day are that China controls Aksai Chin, and India administers Arunachal Pradesh. Neither country has accepted the other’s position. The Line of Actual Control (the de facto boundary that emerged from the ceasefire) remains undefined, undemarcated, and contested in multiple sectors. Unlike the Line of Control with Pakistan, there is no formal agreement on its location.

 

Renewed Assertion

Sumdorong Chu standoff.  The issue remained dormant for almost two and a half decades till 1986. The Sumdorong Chu standoff of 1986 to 1987 in the Tawang region of the Eastern Sector was a serious post-1962 confrontation. A Chinese detachment occupied a valley traditionally grazed by Indian herders, triggering a massive military build-up on both sides that brought the nations to the brink of another war before diplomatic intervention defused the situation.

The Protocol Architecture.  The 2013 Border Defence Cooperation Agreement established institutionalised hotlines and joint mechanisms to manage face-offs and prevent their escalation. This architecture rested on a set of shared understandings. It encompassed that the boundary dispute would be kept separate from the overall relationship, that economic interdependence would create incentives for stability, and that neither side would seek to alter the status quo by force. For roughly two decades, the framework held. Standoffs occurred at Depsang in 2013 and Chumar in 2014, but were managed and defused within the established protocols.

Doklam Standoff. The framework began showing serious structural stress with the Doklam standoff of 2017, when Indian and Chinese troops confronted each other for 73 days on a plateau near the Bhutan-China-India trijunction. India intervened against Chinese road construction that it regarded as a direct threat to the strategic Siliguri Corridor, also called the Chicken’s Neck. The standoff ended without a clear resolution but signalled a new Chinese willingness to test Indian redlines and a meaningfully changed strategic posture.

Galwan Clash. On the night of 15 June 2020, Indian and Chinese soldiers clashed in the Galwan Valley in Eastern Ladakh.  It caused fatalities on the Line of Actual Control in 45 years.  The clash was not a spontaneous skirmish but the violent consequence of Chinese infrastructure construction across multiple friction points in Eastern Ladakh, systematically altering the status quo. Galwan shattered the diplomatic architecture built over three decades and triggered the gravest rupture in India-China relations since 1962.

 

Insolvability Drivers

The Tibet factor. This factor remains structurally central. India’s fundamental position is that it inherited a valid boundary from its colonial predecessor. The Tibetan government’s legal authority at the time of the Simla Convention had endorsed the Simla Convention. China’s fundamental anxiety is that international legitimisation of the McMahon Line would imply that Tibet possessed the sovereign authority to conclude treaties.

Dispute Asymmetry.  means that the two sides are not exchanging equivalent concessions. China’s primary strategic interest is in Aksai Chin, which it already controls and which is essential for connecting Xinjiang to Tibet via the G219 highway. India’s primary claim is to Arunachal Pradesh, which India already administers. The logical resolution would require India to formally abandon its claim to Aksai Chin and China to formally renounce its claim to Arunachal Pradesh. Neither government has found the domestic political space to make that concession, and no leader on either side has been willing to bear the political cost of being seen as the one who gave territory away.

The Shifting Balance of Power.  This reduces China’s incentive to settle on terms India could accept. In 1988, when the framework of managed competition was established, the two economies were roughly comparable in size. Today, China’s economy is approximately five times larger than India’s, and its military modernisation has outpaced India’s by a significant margin. From Beijing’s perspective, time and the correlation of forces are on its side. Settling now, on terms of rough equivalence, would mean forfeiting the strategic advantages.

 

Line Awaiting Resolution

The dispute has outlived the Bhai-Bhai idealism, the 1962 war, decades of diplomatic engagement/confrontation, the Cold War, and multiple generations of leaders on both sides. The line that was never agreed upon remains a source of danger, distrust, and unfinished history. It awaits a political moment when leaders are willing to trade the ambiguity of the present for the clarity that resolution alone can provide. That moment is still awaited more than six decades after the war that defined the modern shape of the dispute.

 

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Information and data included in the blog are for educational & non-commercial purposes only and have been carefully adapted, excerpted, or edited from reliable and accurate sources. All copyrighted material belongs to the respective owners and is provided only for wider dissemination.

 

 

References:

 

Lamb, A. (1964). The China-India border: The origins of the disputed boundaries. Oxford University Press.

Lamb, A. (1973). The Sino-Indian border in Ladakh. Australian National University Press.

Garver, J. W. (2001). Protracted contest: Sino-Indian rivalry in the twentieth century. University of Washington Press.

Garver, J. W. (2011). The unresolved Sino-Indian border dispute: An interpretation. China Report, 47(2), 99–113.

Lintner, B. (2018). China’s India war: Collision course on the roof of the world. Oxford University Press.

Menon, S. (2016). Choices: Inside the making of India’s foreign policy. Brookings Institution Press.

Menon, S. (2021). India and Asian geopolitics: The past, present. Brookings Institution Press.

Raghavan, S. (2010). War and peace in modern India: A strategic history of the Nehru years. Permanent Black.

Hoffmann, S. A. (1990). India and the China crisis. University of California Press.

Shakya, T. (1999). The dragon in the land of snows: A history of modern Tibet since 1947. Columbia University Press.

Goldstein, M. C. (1989). A history of modern Tibet, 1913–1951: The demise of the Lamaist state. University of California Press.

Arpi, C. (2009). 1962 and the McMahon Line saga. Lancer Publishers.

Fravel, M. T. (2020). China’s changing approach to military coercion in territorial disputes. The Washington Quarterly, 42(3), 179–201.

814: RUSSIA’S RS-28 SARMAT ADDS A NEW CHAPTER IN STRATEGIC NUCLEAR MODERNISATION

 

News. Russia successfully test-launched the RS-28 Sarmat intercontinental ballistic missile from the Plesetsk Cosmodrome (Arkhangelsk region) on 12 May 26. The missile followed its planned profile and struck its designated target (at Kura test range on the Kamchatka Peninsula) approximately thirty minutes after launch. Strategic Missile Forces commander Sergei Karakayev reported that all specified technical characteristics had been validated. Putin described the test as a “major event and unconditional success” and congratulated the defence ministry, scientists, engineers, and the thousands of workers whose collaborative effort brought the programme to this milestone.

 

Missile. The Makeyev Rocket Design Bureau produces the RS-28 Sarmat. It is a silo-launched, three-stage, liquid-fuelled super-heavy ICBM (35.3 metres in length and approximately 208 tonnes in launch weight). It is claimed to be the largest ballistic missile ever constructed. Its payload capacity is ten tonnes, and it can carry a variety of warheads (including multiple independently targetable re-entry vehicles (MIRVs) and, reportedly, the Avangard hypersonic glide vehicle. Its operational flexibility significantly exceeds that of its predecessor.

 

 

Capability. Among the Sarmat’s most strategically significant attributes is its capacity to approach targets via non-standard flight trajectories. Unlike conventional ICBMs that follow northern polar arcs, the Sarmat is capable of fractional orbital bombardment, i.e. flying a depressed, sub-orbital trajectory over the South Pole to reach targets in North America. This gives it the ability to approach from directions that existing American missile defence interceptor networks, positioned primarily in Alaska and California and oriented toward northern approach corridors, are not designed to engage. Putin has noted that the missile can travel on both ballistic and suborbital trajectories, with a maximum range reportedly exceeding 35,000 kilometres.

 

Feature Enhancement. The missile has a shorter boost phase than its predecessor. This reduces the window for tracking by the space-based infrared sensors. It is a meaningful enhancement for the missile’s survivability. The Sarmat is also claimed to be more accurate than the Voyevoda. Putin has stated that the Sarmat’s destructive potential substantially exceeds that of any comparable Western system.

 

Strategic Implication. The successful launch carries significant strategic implications. The R-36M2 Voyevoda, a Soviet-era heavy ICBM, had been the backbone of Russia’s silo-based deterrent for decades.  The Sarmat is intended to replace it, and it represents the most consequential upgrade to Russia’s nuclear triad in the post-Cold War period. Putin announced that Russia would deploy the first Sarmat-equipped regiment for combat duty before the end of 2026. It is claimed to be designed to penetrate both existing and prospective ballistic missile defences. This capability is important for Russia to maintain credible second-strike deterrence.

 

Race. The Sarmat is one of six next-generation strategic weapons that Putin unveiled in March 2018, presenting them as Russia’s response to the United States’ withdrawal from the Anti-Ballistic Missile Treaty in 2001 and the subsequent development of American missile defence infrastructure. From Moscow’s perspective, a credible and penetrating nuclear second-strike capability is the foundation of strategic stability. The assurance that no adversary can neutralise Russia’s deterrent through a disarming first strike and expect to intercept the surviving response. The Sarmat is engineered specifically to preserve that assurance against all foreseeable developments in missile defence technology.

 

Timing. The test comes at a time of considerable significance in the current global landscape. The New START treaty (the last remaining bilateral nuclear arms limitation agreement between Russia and the United States) expired in February 2026. Russia suspended its participation in New START in February 2023, citing what it described as the fundamentally changed strategic environment resulting from Western military support for Ukraine. The absence of any active treaty framework means that both sides are now free to expand and modernise their arsenals without the notification and inspection.  The Sarmat’s development and operational deployment will proceed in this unconstrained environment.

 

Domestic Significance. Domestically, the test carries political weight as well as military significance. It arrives days after Russia’s Victory Day commemorations. It demonstrates the continued vitality of Russia’s defence industrial and scientific base under sustained international sanctions and economic pressure. It affirms the country’s standing as a nuclear superpower capable of fielding world-leading weapons systems.

 

Global Interest. Internationally, the Sarmat’s deployment will be watched closely in capitals around the world (from Washington to Beijing and from New Delhi to Brussels). For NATO’s strategic planners, it represents a genuine generational upgrade to Russia’s land-based deterrent. It will force them to recalibrate their threat assessments and defence postures. For countries in the Global South, it is a reminder that the nuclear dimension of great-power competition remains very much alive and is, if anything, intensifying.

 

Concluding Thought. Russia’s strategic modernisation programme has always been driven by the conviction that a strong nuclear deterrent is the ultimate guarantor of national sovereignty and strategic autonomy. The Sarmat’s successful test and approaching operational debut confirm that this conviction remains the organising principle of Russian defence policy. It also proves that Russia retains both the industrial capacity and the scientific expertise to give it material form.

 

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810: PAKISTAN’S WAR OF ITS OWN MAKING: AFGHAN POLICY COMES FULL CIRCLE

 

In the early hours of February 27, 2026, explosions shook the Afghan capital Kabul. Pakistani jets streaked across the night sky, striking Taliban government defence facilities, ammunition depots, and military sites in Kabul, Kandahar, and the southeastern province of Paktia. Pakistan had done something almost unthinkable just a few years ago. It bombed the capital of a neighbouring country and declared that it was now in a state of “open war.” This was not an impulsive act but the result of years of deteriorating relations. The situation had been building since the Taliban returned to power in Afghanistan in 2021.

 

A Historical Overview of The Broken Brotherhood

Pakistan and Afghanistan share a relationship that defies easy description. The South Asian neighbours are both Muslim-majority states and share a 2,611-kilometer border.  For decades, Pakistan was among the most important backers of the Afghan Taliban, supporting the movement ideologically, financially, and logistically through its powerful Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) directorate. When the Taliban swept back into Kabul in August 2021 following the withdrawal of American and NATO forces, Pakistan initially welcomed the development as a strategic gain. Pakistan thought a friendly government in Kabul might counter Indian influence and give Islamabad so-called “strategic depth.”

That calculation unravelled almost immediately. The Taliban government in Kabul was not interested in being a client state of Islamabad. Far from reining in anti-Pakistan militant groups operating from Afghan soil, the Taliban appeared unwilling to do so. The Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) started using Afghan territory as a base from which to launch increasingly devastating attacks on Pakistan. Pakistan’s frontier provinces bordering Afghanistan (Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and Balochistan) bore the brunt. Suicide bombings, ambushes on security forces, and targeted assassinations increased. A particularly devastating attack struck a Shia Mosque in Islamabad, killing at least 40 people and claimed by the Islamic State Khorasan Province (ISKP), adding another militant dimension to Pakistan’s security nightmare.

At the same time, the Durand Line (the colonial-era boundary drawn by the British in 1893) remained a festering point of contention. Afghanistan has never formally recognised this border as legitimate, viewing it as an arbitrary demarcation that divides the Pashtun ethnic group between two states. The Taliban government maintained that position firmly, resisting Pakistan’s attempts to fence the border and frequently allowing its fighters to interfere with construction efforts. It is estimated that there had been at least 75 recorded clashes between Afghan and Pakistani forces along the Durand Line between 2021 and 2026, a frequency that made some form of major escalation almost inevitable.

 

The Military Balance

The difference in military strength between Pakistan and Afghanistan is stark. Pakistan, a nuclear-armed country, has a considerable military force with 660,000 active personnel (560,000 soldiers in the army, 70,000 in the air force, and 30,000 in the navy). Pakistan also boasts of 465 combat aircraft, over 260 helicopters, more than 6,000 armoured fighting vehicles, and over 4,600 artillery pieces.

The Afghan Taliban, by contrast, commands approximately 172,000 active military personnel. When the Taliban returned to power in 2021, it inherited a substantial inventory of US-supplied military equipment left behind by the former Afghan National Army, including armoured vehicles, artillery, and aircraft. But without international recognition, without access to spare parts, and without functioning military training institutions, much of that equipment became unusable. Afghanistan has no functioning air force to speak of: at most six aircraft, some of Soviet vintage, and 23 helicopters, the airworthiness of an unknown number of which remained in doubt.

On paper, Pakistan could crush the Taliban’s conventional military capacity with relative ease. Yet history has shown repeatedly that wars in Afghanistan are not won on paper. It is called the “Graveyard of Empires” for a reason. The Taliban’s fighters are combat-hardened veterans of a 20-year insurgency against the most powerful military alliance in history. They know their terrain intimately. And Islamabad should know better than most that guerrilla warfare in the mountains of Khost and Kunar can render any conventional military advantage irrelevant.

 

Collapse of the October 2025 Ceasefire

The crisis did not erupt without prior warning. In October 2025, Afghanistan and Pakistan had already fought a week of fierce and deadly clashes along their contested frontier. More than 70 people were killed on both sides in what at the time represented the worst bout of open fighting between the two neighbours in recent memory. The violence was enough to prompt international intervention. Qatar and Turkey brokered an emergency ceasefire in Doha, and for a few months, the shooting largely stopped.

But the ceasefire was always fragile. Sporadic violations continued, and none of the underlying causes had been addressed. Pakistan still wanted the Taliban to crack down on the TTP. The Taliban still refused to recognise the Durand Line. Militant attacks inside Pakistan continued. Border crossings, including the key Torkham and Chaman crossings, remained largely shut, causing severe economic strain on both sides and enormous suffering for Afghan refugees and returnees caught between two hostile states. Several rounds of negotiations followed the October ceasefire, reportedly involving Qatar and Turkey as mediators, but no lasting agreement emerged.

 

The February 2026 Skirmish

Pakistan launched airstrikes targeting what it described as militant camps belonging to the TTP and ISKP in Afghan provinces (Nangarhar, Paktika, and Khost). Islamabad claimed that the strikes had killed at least 70 terrorists. The Taliban government and independent observers had a different story. The UN mission in Afghanistan reported that at least 13 civilians had been killed in those initial Pakistani strikes. Taliban spokesman Zabihullah Mujahid said the attacks had “killed and wounded dozens, including women and children.” A provincial director of the Afghan Red Crescent Society said 18 people were killed and many more wounded in Nangarhar alone. These were not terrorists on a training ground, but residents of border villages.

Afghanistan issued a stern warning, which Pakistan dismissed. On the night of February 26, Afghan forces launched a large-scale offensive operation against Pakistan.  They targeted Pakistani military installations along the Durand Line.

Pakistan responded by launching Operation Ghazab lil Haq (Righteous Fury) on 27 Feb 26. It involved combined air and ground strikes against Taliban posts, headquarters, and ammunition depots.

According to Pakistan’s Information Minister Attaullah Tarar, the operation killed at least 133 Afghan Taliban fighters and wounded more than 200. Pakistan also claimed that 27 Taliban posts had been destroyed and nine captured, along with over 80 tanks, artillery pieces, and armoured personnel carriers. The Taliban gave a starkly different account: eight of its fighters killed and eleven wounded, and 55 Pakistani soldiers killed, with 19 posts seized. Neither set of figures could be independently verified by the time news organisations were reporting from the ground.

The conflict quickly introduced new dimensions of warfare. Afghanistan claimed its forces had “successfully conducted” drone strikes hitting military targets inside Pakistan. Pakistan’s Information Minister said the drone attempts had been intercepted by anti-drone systems in the cities of Abbottabad, Swabi, and Nowshera, with no damage to life.

The Torkham crossing remained one of the most dangerous and symbolically loaded flashpoints. It had been kept partially open for Afghans returning en masse from Pakistan. Now those returnees found themselves trapped between two armies.

 

Regional and Global Reactions

The international response to the outbreak of open war was swift and almost uniformly alarmed. The United Nations Secretary-General António Guterres was among the first to respond. He called for both parties to de-escalate immediately and continue to seek to resolve the differences through diplomacy.

India condemned Pakistan’s airstrikes. It described the strikes as “another attempt by Pakistan to externalise its internal failures”. It also affirmed India’s support for Afghanistan’s sovereignty, territorial integrity, and independence. Pakistan’s Foreign Office rejected India’s comments and alleged that the Taliban had become a proxy for India.

Iran has borders with both countries and has long positioned itself as a bridge between them. It called on both governments to resolve their differences within the framework of good neighbourliness. Iran also offered mediation and readiness to assist in facilitating dialogue.

China maintains close ties with both Pakistan and the Taliban government in Kabul. It expressed deep concern and conveyed Beijing’s willingness to play a constructive role in cooling the situation. Russia called on both parties to immediately halt cross-border attacks and offered to mediate if requested by both sides. Turkey’s Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan held separate calls with his counterparts in Pakistan, Afghanistan, Qatar, and Saudi Arabia to coordinate diplomatic pressure. Saudi Arabia’s Foreign Minister Faisal bin Farhan spoke with Pakistan’s Ishaq Dar to discuss “ways to reduce tensions.”

Former Afghan President Hamid Karzai, though holding no official position, issued a public statement. Pakistan cannot free itself from the self-created problems of violence and bombings. Still, it must change its own policy and choose the path of good neighbourliness, respect, and civilised relations with Afghanistan.

 

What Drives This War

The hostility between Pakistan and Afghanistan is the product of an irreconcilable contradiction. Pakistan created, supported, and enabled the Taliban as a strategic instrument for more than two decades. It sheltered the Taliban’s senior leadership during the years of US occupation. It allowed recruitment and fundraising on Pakistani soil. It lobbied internationally for international recognition of Taliban governance. Pakistan expected gratitude and compliance from the Taliban’s return to power in 2021.

What it got instead was a sovereign government that pursued its own interests. It refused to recognise the Durand Line, declined to crack down on the TTP, and increasingly viewed Islamabad as a threat rather than a patron. The Pakistani analyst Mariam Solaimankhil, a member of Afghanistan’s Parliament in Exile, framed it bluntly in a television interview during the crisis: “Pakistan is fighting the monster it helped create.” She argued that the TTP’s roots, the Afghan Taliban’s ideology, and the networks of militant groups were all products of Pakistani state policy over decades, and that the civilians now dying in Pashtun villages on both sides of the border, in Balochistan, in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, were paying the price for choices made in Rawalpindi’s military headquarters.

 

Where It Might Lead

Where the conflict goes from here remains deeply uncertain. The military balance favours Pakistan overwhelmingly in conventional terms, but history suggests that Afghanistan defeats its invaders not by winning battles but by outlasting occupiers. Pakistan has no stated intention of occupying Afghanistan. Still, each round of airstrikes radicalises new fighters, destroys what little infrastructure the Taliban government has, and strengthens the hand of hardliners on both sides.

The international community (China, Russia, Iran, Turkey, and the UN)  has called for de-escalation, but none of these actors has the leverage or the will to impose a solution. The United States, which spent 20 years and trillions of dollars trying to stabilise Afghanistan and failed, is unlikely to re-engage substantively. Qatar and Turkey, who brokered the October 2025 ceasefire that lasted barely four months, again tried to mediate, but without addressing the root causes. In this scenario, any ceasefire will be temporary.

The Durand Line was drawn by a British diplomat in 1893 to serve imperial interests. More than 130 years later, it remains a wound that neither side can agree to close. Until it is resolved, the cycle of violence that has defined this relationship will continue to grind on—one airstrike, one ceasefire, and one broken promise at a time.

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Disclaimer:

Information and data included in the blog are for educational & non-commercial purposes only and have been carefully adapted, excerpted, or edited from reliable and accurate sources. All copyrighted material belongs to the respective owners and is provided only for wider dissemination.

 

 

References:

Ahmed, R. (2000). “Taliban: Militant Islam, oil and fundamentalism in Central Asia”. Yale University Press.

Bijan Omrani, B. (2009). “The Durand Line: History and problems of the Afghan-Pakistan border”. Asian Affairs, 40(2), 177–195.

Center for Strategic and International Studies. (2021–2026). “Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan and regional militancy reports”. https://www.csis.org

Chatham House. (2021–2026). “Afghanistan post-2021 political and security analysis”. https://www.chathamhouse.org

Council on Foreign Relations. (2021–2026). “Backgrounders on Afghanistan, Taliban, and regional geopolitics”. https://www.cfr.org

International Crisis Group. (2021–2026). “Pakistan-Afghanistan border tensions and militancy reports”. https://www.crisisgroup.org

International Institute for Strategic Studies. (2025). “The military balance 2025”. Routledge.

Reuters. (2025–2026). “Coverage of Pakistan-Afghanistan conflict and regional tensions”. https://www.reuters.com

Rubin, B. R. (2002). “The fragmentation of Afghanistan: State formation and collapse in the international system” (2nd ed.). Yale University Press.

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