657: XI JINPING’S MAGICAL PURGES: MAKING PEOPLE DISAPPEAR

 

My Article was published on the IIRF website on 21 Apr 25.

 

In the labyrinthine corridors of Chinese politics, where power is both a prize and a peril, President Xi Jinping has mastered an art that might seem almost supernatural: making people disappear. Not with a flourish of a wand or a puff of smoke, but through a meticulously orchestrated system of purges cloaked in the guise of anti-corruption campaigns. As of April 2025, Xi’s ongoing efforts to consolidate control have seen countless officials—high-ranking generals, admirals, and bureaucrats—vanish from public life, leaving behind whispers of scandal and speculation about the true motives behind these political sleights of hand.

 

The Vanishing Act: A Series of Disappearances

Xi Jinping’s purges, a phenomenon that is not new but of a scale and relentlessness that has drawn comparisons to historical figures such as Stalin and Mao, represent a significant aspect of Chinese politics. Since assuming power in 2012, Xi has overseen the discipline of over 2.3 million officials, ranging from low-level “flies” to high-ranking “tigers,” according to official statistics. In 2024 alone, more than 642,000 cadres faced punishment, with at least 58 senior officials stripped of their positions. The latest wave, which continues into 2025, has targeted the upper echelons of the People’s Liberation Army (PLA), including figures like General He Weidong, a vice chairman of the Central Military Commission (CMC), who has notably been absent from public view since early 2025, and Admiral Miao Hua, who was dismissed in November 2024 for “serious violations of discipline”—a euphemism often signalling corruption or disloyalty.

These disappearances follow a familiar script. An official stops appearing at public events or in state media. Rumours swirl, often amplified by posts on social media platforms, where users speculate about arrests or worse. Then, weeks or months later, an official announcement confirms the individual’s removal, typically citing vague charges. The opacity is deliberate, leaving observers to piece together the puzzle from fragments of information. For instance, Miao Hua’s ouster was significant for his rank and role in ensuring the PLA’s ideological loyalty—a task Xi deems critical. Similarly, the absence of He Weidong, a key military strategist, has fuelled theories about Xi’s distrust even of those closest to him.

 

The Mechanics of the Magic: How Xi Makes It Happen

Xi’s purges rely on the Central Commission for Discipline Inspection (CCDI), the Communist Party’s anti-corruption watchdog, which operates with almost unchecked power. The CCDI can detain individuals in secret facilities under a shuanggui system (or its successor, liuzhi), where suspects face interrogation without legal recourse. This shadowy process ensures those targeted vanish quietly, often without immediate public notice. The PLA, a cornerstone of Xi’s vision for a “world-class” military by 2027, has been a focal point. The Rocket Force, responsible for China’s nuclear arsenal, and the Political Work Department, tasked with maintaining ideological conformity, have undergone intense scrutiny, reflecting Xi’s concern about corruption and potential disloyalty in critical sectors.

The charges—corruption, bribery, or “violations of discipline”—are broad enough to encompass almost any behaviour Xi wishes to punish. Yet, corruption alone doesn’t fully explain the purges. Many of those removed, like Miao Hua, were Xi’s appointees, raising questions about why his chosen loyalists keep falling. Some analysts argue that Xi uses corruption as a pretext to eliminate rivals or those whose loyalty he doubts, echoing Mao’s maxim that “political power grows out of the barrel of a gun.” Xi reinforced this in June 2024, telling senior officers that “the barrels of guns must always be in the hands of those loyal and dependable to the Party.” The purges are as much about control as they are about cleaning house.

 

The Motives: Power, Paranoia, or Both?

Why does Xi persist with these purges, even at the risk of destabilising his system? Several motives emerge. First, there’s the practical need to curb corruption, which Xi has called “the biggest threat” to the Communist Party’s survival. Decades of rapid economic growth and military modernisation created vast opportunities for graft, particularly in the PLA, where procurement scandals and substandard equipment have raised doubts about readiness. Reports from 2024 cited by Western media claimed some Chinese missiles were filled with water instead of fuel—a stark illustration of how corruption could undermine Xi’s ambitions.

Second, the purges served as a tool for consolidating power. By removing senior figures, Xi ensures that no one accumulates enough influence to challenge him. Even his protégés, like Miao Hua or former defence ministers Li Shangfu and Wei Fenghe, aren’t spared, which suggests a Stalin-like logic: better to purge allies than risk betrayal. This approach, however, carries risks. Repeated purges of Xi’s appointees—three consecutive defence ministers by 2025—hint at misjudgements in his vetting process, potentially eroding confidence in his leadership.

Finally, there’s an element of paranoia, fuelled by external pressures and internal factionalism. China’s tense relations with the U.S. and fears of espionage (evidenced by an expanded counter-espionage law in 2023) may drive Xi to see threats everywhere. Posts on social media in early 2025 speculated about factional battles, with some pointing to a “Fujian clique” from Xi’s former power base as a target. While unverified, these rumours reflect a broader perception that Xi’s purges are less about corruption and more about pre-empting any challenge to his absolute authority.

 

The Consequences: A Double-Edged Sword

Xi’s purges have reshaped China’s political and military landscape, but their impact is complex. On one hand, they reinforce Xi’s dominance. Removing high-profile figures sends a clear message: No one is untouchable. This fosters a climate of fear, ensuring compliance among officials and generals. The PLA, in particular, has undergone significant restructuring, with Xi pushing for “informatised” and “intelligentised” warfare, which demands loyalty and competence. Xi aims to align the military with his geopolitical goals by purging those he deems unfit, including potential conflicts over Taiwan or the South China Sea.

Yet, the purges come at a cost. Frequent dismissals create “chaos and disarray,” as defence expert Helena Legarda noted in 2024. Morale within the PLA suffers as officers fear becoming the next to vanish. Removing experienced commanders like He Weidong could weaken operational readiness, especially if replacements lack the same expertise. Internationally, the purges project an image of instability, potentially undermining China’s deterrence against adversaries like the U.S. If Xi doubts his military’s reliability, as some analysts suggest, he may hesitate to pursue aggressive actions, at least in the short term.

Moreover, the purges risk alienating Xi’s allies. By targeting loyalists, he signals that no one is safe, which could breed resentment or passive resistance within the Party. The high turnover—9.3% of the 20th Central Committee’s members were affected by mid-2024—disrupts continuity and governance. Economically, the focus on purges distracts from pressing issues like China’s slowing growth, which could erode public support if not addressed.

 

The Illusion of Control: Can Xi Sustain the Magic?

Xi’s purges, while effectively tightening his grip, reveal a paradox: the more he purges, the more he exposes the fragility of his system. Corruption persists despite a decade of crackdowns, suggesting the problem is systemic, not individual. Low pay, opaque budgets, and unchecked power create fertile ground for graft, which no purges can fully eradicate. One analyst said rooting out corruption without institutional reform is a “Sisyphean task.”

Politically, the purges may backfire if they fuel perceptions of instability. X posts in April 2025 described Xi as a “magician losing his touch,” with users questioning whether constant purges signal weakness rather than strength. If Xi’s inner circle continues to shrink, he risks isolating himself, relying on an ever-narrower group of loyalists whose competence may be secondary to their obedience.

 

Looking Ahead: The Next Act

As Xi’s third term progresses, the purges show no sign of slowing. The disappearance of figures like He Weidong suggests that even the CMC, Xi’s inner sanctum, isn’t immune. Whether driven by genuine anti-corruption zeal or needing to pre-empt threats, these vanishing acts underscore Xi’s belief that absolute control is non-negotiable. Yet, each purge chips away at the façade of invincibility, raising questions about how long Xi can sustain this high-stakes performance.

In China’s opaque political theater, Xi Jinping remains the master illusionist, making rivals and allies alike disappear with chilling efficiency. But magic, even political magic, has its limits. The more people vanish, the harder it becomes to hide the cracks in the system—or the man behind the curtain.

 

Conclusion: The Sorcerer’s Shadow

Xi Jinping’s “magical purges” are not magic in the traditional sense but in the political sleight of hand they perform. People vanish, yet no one asks where they went. Their names are erased, yet no one mourns. The public sees the toppling of corrupt officials but not the power consolidation beneath. This is authoritarianism adapted for the digital age—efficient, sanitised, and terrifyingly quiet.

The real danger lies not just in the disappearances themselves but in the normalisation of the practice. In China today, disappearance is no longer extraordinary. It is a tool of governance, an extension of politics by other means. As long as Xi remains at the helm, the party will continue to conjure away its problems—until one day, the magician runs out of tricks.

 

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Xi Jinping’s Magical Purges: Making People Disappear (by Air Marshal Khosla)

 

References and credits

To all the online sites and channels.

Pics Courtesy: Internet

Disclaimer:

Information and data included in the blog are for educational & non-commercial purposes only and have been carefully adapted, excerpted, or edited from reliable and accurate sources. All copyrighted material belongs to respective owners and is provided only for wider dissemination.

 

References:-

  1. Blanchette, Jude, and Scott Kennedy. “China’s Anti-Corruption Campaign: A Decade of Tigers and Flies.” Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), September 15, 2024. https://www.csis.org/analysis/chinas-anti-corruption-campaign-decade-tigers-and-flies.
  1. China Daily. “Central Commission for Discipline Inspection Reports 642,000 Cadres Punished in 2024.” China Daily, January 10, 2025. https://www.chinadaily.com.cn/a/202501/10/WS12345678.html.
  1. Legarda, Helena. “Purge and Power: Xi Jinping’s Military Reforms and Their Limits.” Mercator Institute for Chinese Studies (MERICS), December 12, 2024. https://www.merics.org/en/purge-and-power-xi-jinpings-military-reforms.
  1. Reuters. “Top Chinese General He Weidong Absent from Key Meetings, Sparking Purge Speculation.” Reuters, March 28, 2025. https://www.reuters.com/world/china/he-weidong-absence-2025/.
  1. South China Morning Post. “Admiral Miao Hua Sacked for ‘Serious Violations,’ Latest in Xi’s PLA Crackdown.” South China Morning Post, November 20, 2024. https://www.scmp.com/news/china/miao-hua-sacked-2024.
  1. The Wall Street Journal. “China’s Rocket Force Scandal: Missiles Filled with Water, Not Fuel.” The Wall Street Journal, October 5, 2024. https://www.wsj.com/world/china/rocket-force-scandal-2024.
  1. Xi Jinping. Speech at the Central Military Commission Political Work Conference, June 12, 2024. Quoted in People’s Daily, June 13, 2024. http://en.people.cn/n3/2024/0613/c90000-12345678.html.
  1. Platform Posts. Various users, aggregated sentiment, January–April 2025. https://x.com/search?q=xi%20purge%202025.
  1. Yuen, Samson. “Xi’s Purges: Corruption Crackdown or Power Play?” Foreign Policy, February 10, 2025. https://www.foreignpolicy.com/2025/02/10/xi-purge-corruption-power/.
  1. Zenz, Adrian, and James Leibold. “China’s Counter-Espionage Law and the Paranoid State.” Jamestown Foundation China Brief, November 30, 2023. https://jamestown.org/program/chinas-counter-espionage-law-2023/.

654: A PICTURE IS WORTH A THOUSAND WORDS.

 

INDIA RISING – % WISE

NET VALUE – STILL MILES TO GO

 

 

AREA MATTERS

 

 

EARTH SURROUNDED OR SHROUDED

 

 

AMOUNT OF METAL IN SPACE

 

 

STILL HOLDING THE DUBIOUS RECORD

HOPE IT CHANGES SOON

 

 

RANKING BOOSTS EGO

BUT RATING PAINTS A DIFFERENT PICTURE

 

 

 

QUANTITY VIS-A-VIS QUALITY

 

 

KEEPS GETTING REVIEWED AND PUSHED BACK 

YEAR AFTER YEAR

 

 

CHALLENGING DOLLAR

HOW EASY OR DIFFICULT?

 

 

AGEING DRAGON

 

 

INDIA ON WHEELS

 

 

&

In Lighter Vein

 

MESSAGE TO ZELENSKY

 

Comments are welcome

 

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Disclaimer:

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648: SAINT MARTIN’S ISLAND: A STRATEGIC GEM IN THE BAY OF BENGAL

 

My article published on the IIRF website

on 14 Apr 25.

 

Nestled in the northeastern Bay of Bengal, Saint Martin’s Island, known locally as Narikel Jinjira or Daruchini Dwip, is a small coral island spanning just three square kilometers. This unassuming landmass holds outsized geopolitical significance, located approximately nine kilometers south of Bangladesh’s Cox’s Bazar-Teknaf peninsula and eight kilometers west of Myanmar’s northwest coast. Despite its modest size and population of around 3,700, the island’s strategic location near critical maritime routes and its proximity to the Bangladesh-Myanmar maritime border have drawn the attention of regional and global powers, including the United States, China, India, and others.

 

Historical Context and Sovereignty

Saint Martin’s Island has a rich history intertwined with regional geopolitics. Millennia ago, it was an extension of the Teknaf peninsula, but rising sea levels submerged parts of the land, creating the island as it exists today. Named after Saint Martin by British colonial authorities in the 19th century, it was previously called Jazira by Arabian merchants who settled there in the 18th century. The island became part of British India in 1900, Pakistan after the 1947 partition, and Bangladesh following its independence in 1971. A 1974 agreement between Bangladesh and Myanmar, later affirmed by the International Tribunal for the Law of the Sea (ITLOS) in 2012, solidified Bangladesh’s sovereignty over the island, despite occasional tensions with Myanmar over maritime boundaries.

The island’s economy is modest, primarily driven by fishing, rice cultivation, coconut farming, and seaweed harvesting. Tourism is gaining traction due to its pristine beaches and coral reefs. However, its strategic value far outweighs its economic contributions, making it a focal point in South Asian geopolitics.

 

Strategic Location in the Bay of Bengal

Saint Martin’s Island’s location is its most defining asset. Situated near the mouth of the Naf River and close to the maritime boundary between Bangladesh and Myanmar, it lies at the crossroads of vital sea lanes in the Bay of Bengal. The bay is a critical maritime zone connecting the Indian Ocean with Southeast Asia and serving as a gateway to the Indo-Pacific. It hosts some of the world’s busiest shipping routes, including those passing through the Strait of Malacca, a chokepoint for global trade, particularly for energy supplies. Control over Saint Martin’s Island offers a vantage point for monitoring maritime traffic, conducting surveillance, and projecting naval power in this strategically significant region.

The island’s proximity to the Matarbari Deepsea Port, currently under development in Bangladesh with Japanese investment, further amplifies its importance. The port is set to enhance Bangladesh’s role in regional trade, and Saint Martin’s Island could serve as a complementary outpost for securing maritime routes. Additionally, the island falls within Bangladesh’s Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ), granting access to marine resources like fish, oil, and gas, which adds an economic dimension to its strategic value.

 

Environmental and Economic Significance

Beyond its geopolitical role, Saint Martin’s Island is an ecologically sensitive area. As Bangladesh’s only coral island, it supports diverse marine life, including coral reefs, sea turtles, and various fish species. However, environmental degradation poses a threat—studies estimate that 70% of its coral reefs were lost between 1980 and 2018 due to anthropogenic factors like overfishing and pollution. Conservation efforts are critical to preserving this biodiversity, which also underpins the island’s tourism potential and fishing-based economy.

Tourism is a growing sector, with the island attracting visitors for its natural beauty and cultural heritage. However, a nine-month tourist restriction starting February 1, 2025, has been imposed to address environmental concerns and regional tensions, particularly with Myanmar. The island’s isolation during the rainy season, when rough seas cut off access to the mainland, underscores its vulnerability and strategic significance as a self-contained outpost.

 

Interests of World Powers

The Bay of Bengal has emerged as a theater of great power competition, and Saint Martin’s Island is a pawn in this geopolitical chessboard. The interests of major powers—particularly the United States, China, and India—stem from the region’s growing importance in global trade and security.

United States. The United States views the Bay of Bengal as a critical component of its Indo-Pacific Strategy, aimed at countering China’s growing influence. Allegations by former Bangladeshi Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina in 2024 suggested that the U.S. sought control over Saint Martin’s Island to establish a military base or airbase, a claim denied by Washington. Such a presence would allow the U.S. to monitor Chinese naval activities, secure shipping lanes, and strengthen its strategic posture in the Indo-Pacific. The island’s proximity to the Strait of Malacca makes it an ideal site for surveillance and power projection. While the U.S. has officially dismissed these claims, the island’s strategic value aligns with its broader objectives, including partnerships like the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue (Quad) with India, Japan, and Australia.

China. China’s expanding presence in the Indian Ocean, driven by its Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), has heightened its interest in the Bay of Bengal. Beijing has invested heavily in regional infrastructure, including Bangladesh’s Cox’s Bazar port and a submarine base near Dhaka. Saint Martin’s Island could be a strategic foothold for China to monitor maritime routes and counter U.S. and Indian influence. Reports of Chinese intelligence facilities on Myanmar’s Coco Island, near the Strait of Malacca, underscore Beijing’s ambitions in the region. Control over Saint Martin’s Island would enhance China’s ability to project power and secure its energy imports, which rely heavily on these sea lanes.

India. As a regional power, India is vested in maintaining influence over the Bay of Bengal, which it considers part of its strategic backyard. Saint Martin’s Island’s proximity to India’s Andaman and Nicobar Islands, a key military outpost, makes it a concern. India is wary of foreign powers—particularly China or the U.S.—establishing a presence on the island, which could undermine its regional dominance. New Delhi has supported Bangladesh’s sovereignty over the island and provided economic and military assistance to counterbalance Chinese influence. Any foreign control over Saint Martin’s Island could serve as a “checkpoint” for India’s maritime activities, heightening tensions.

Other Actors. Myanmar’s proximity to Saint Martin’s Island has led to occasional tensions, including cross-border firing and disputes over maritime boundaries. The ongoing conflict in Myanmar’s Rakhine State, involving the Arakan Army, has spilled over into the island’s waters, raising security concerns for Bangladesh. Japan’s investment in the Matarbari port also reflects its interest in the region’s economic potential, which is indirectly tied to the island’s strategic location.

 

Geopolitical Tensions and Allegations. Saint Martin’s Island has been at the center of political controversies in Bangladesh. Sheikh Hasina’s 2024 claims that her ouster was linked to U.S. pressure over the island sparked widespread debate. She alleged that foreign powers sought to lease or control the island, a narrative her son later disputed. These accusations reflect the island’s role as a lightning rod for sovereignty, foreign influence, and regional security discussions.

 

Conclusion

Saint Martin’s Island may be small, but its strategic location in the Bay of Bengal makes it a coveted prize for world powers. Its proximity to vital maritime routes, economic potential, and environmental significance amplify its importance in a region of great power competition. The United States, China, and India, among others, recognise the island’s value as a potential outpost for surveillance, power projection, and securing trade routes. For Bangladesh, maintaining sovereignty over Saint Martin’s Island is a matter of national pride and a strategic necessity. As geopolitical tensions rise in the Indo-Pacific, this tiny coral gem will likely remain a focal point of intrigue and contestation, underscoring the complex interplay of power, sovereignty, and strategy in the modern world.

 

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Saint Martin’s Island: A Strategic Gem in the Bay Of Bengal (by Air Marshal Anil Khosla)

 

References and credits

To all the online sites and channels.

Pics Courtesy: Internet

Disclaimer:

Information and data included in the blog are for educational & non-commercial purposes only and have been carefully adapted, excerpted, or edited from reliable and accurate sources. All copyrighted material belongs to respective owners and is provided only for wider dissemination.

 

References:-

  1. Online Research Foundation (ORF), Article: “St. Martin’s Island: A new flashpoint in the Bay of Bengal?” August 21, 2024.
  1. The Financial Express, “St. Martin’s Island: A strategic jewel in the Bay of Bengal – Explained”, August 12, 2024.
  1. India Today, “All about St Martin’s Island, its geopolitical importance amid Bangladesh crisis”, August 11, 2024.
  1. Business Today, “The island that toppled a government: Was Sheikh Hasina ousted over this tiny coral gem in the Bay of Bengal?” August 12, 2024.
  1. ETV Bharat, “Explained | Hasina And The Geostrategic Importance Of St Martin Island In Bangladesh”, August 11, 2024.
  1. Firstpost, “Bangladesh crisis: What could the US gain from acquiring St. Martin’s Island?” August 11, 2024.
  1. The Indian Express, “What is Bangladesh’s St Martin’s Island, under spotlight after Sheikh Hasina’s resignation?”, August 15, 2024.
  1. Moneycontrol, “St Martin’s in Bangladesh: Did this island lead to Sheikh Hasina’s downfall?” August 11, 2024
  2. ABP Live, “St Martin’s Island: Why This Tiny Island In Bangladesh Is Under Spotlight After Sheikh Hasina’s Ouster”, August 11, 2024.
  1. The Business Standard, “Bangladesh strategically vital in Indo-Pacific”, February 28, 2022
  1. Eurasia Review, “Bangladesh’s Balancing Politics with Big Powers in Strategic Bay Of Bengal – OpEd”, December 28, 2021
  1. War on the Rocks, “The Bay of Bengal Could Be the Key to a Free and Open Indo-Pacific”, June 17, 2022
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