Author: Anil Khosla

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443: INDO-RUSSIA RELATIONS: FRESH IMPETUS

Pic Courtesy: Internet

 

Geography and Geopolitics brought India and Russia (USSR) together and it developed into a time-tested close partnership.

 

Five phases of the relationship:-

    • Engagement phase – pre-independence.
    • Warm-up phase – Post Independence.
    • Close phase – Cold War period.
    • Preoccupation phase – Post USSR breakup.
    • Rejuvenation phase – Current (Fresh Impetus required).

 

Pillars of the relationship:-

    • Historical Trust.
    • Defence cooperation.
    • Economy and trade engagement.
    • Cultural exchanges (Soft power).
    • Mutual Geopolitical interests.

 

Historical Timelines.

    • Post-Independence – Cordial relations.
    • 1960 – Friendship declared, Military cooperation commenced.
    • 1962 – Neutral stance in India-China war (China Brother – India Close Friend).
    • 1966 – Facilitated Tashkent Treaty.
    • 1971 – Treaty of Friendship and Cooperation. (USA sided Pakistan along with China.
    • 1990 Testing times for both.
    • 2000 – Strategic partnership finalised.
    • 2010 – Upgraded to special and privileged partnership (Political, security, trade, economy, defence, science and technology and cultural cooperation).

 

Defence Cooperation

One of the main pillars of Indo-Russia cooperation.

1960’s – India needed defence equipment desperately.

The USA and West were closer to Pakistan and reliable supply was not assured.

USSR found it attractive strategically and geopolitically.

It was a mutually beneficial development. India needed military modernisation and the USSR saw a promising and strategic partner to counterbalance the USA, Pakistan and China.

India became the principal defence market of the USSR.

The military equipment was made available at a cheaper cost, with deferred payments, low-interest rates and easy payment options like payment in kind of finished goods and products.

Technology was also shared with the transfer of technology and allowing licensed production (Mig-21 licensed production).

At one time almost 80 % of the defence equipment in India was soviet origin. (some quoted figures indicate 60 % of Army equipment, 70 % of Navy equipment and 80% of IAF equipment).

Over the years, some of the Russian equipment includes T-90 tanks, Aircraft Carrier, Mig -21, SU-7, Mig-23, Mig 25, Mig 27, Mig 29, and SU-30 aircraft, MI-8, Mi17, Kamov and attack helicopters, a variety of AD weapons including recent S-400 system, An-32, IL-76 and IL-78, and maritime recce aircraft and several air to ground and air to air weapons.

The joint development of the BrahMos missile is a success story.

Almost for four decades (1960 to 2000) India was reliant on Russian for military needs.

Post-breakup of the USSR, Issues of Cost, Quality, Delays and Post-sale support cropped up.

For Russia, even the China market declined due to Chinese indigenisation.

However, India continued to be a reliable market. At one time almost 800 odd Russian defence production facilities were kept alive due to Indian contracts.

Defence cooperation was high with regular engagements, exchanges, exercises, sharing of knowledge and information and training.

 

Recent Times and Indian Compulsions.

In recent times, the threat to India has increased due to the rapid modernisation of the Chinese military, its belligerent attitude, aggressive behaviour and collusivity with Pakistan.

Having learnt the hard way, India is in desperate need to modernise and strengthen its security system and defence forces.  It needs the latest technology induction.

 

The Indian approach to deal with the situation includes:-

    • Promote self-reliance (Atmanirbharta) with indigenous R&D and manufacturing.
    • Maintaining a minimum level of deterrence by procurement from outside.
    • Diversification of sources (USA, France, Israel and Europe).
    • Competitive bidding to get the best equipment and deal (maximum bang for the buck).
    • Offer India as an alternative destination for “Make for the World”.

 

Indian Ideology and Engagements.

India continues to be a peace-loving country with no territorial ambitions or expansionist desire. It believes in Mutual growth and prosperity (One world – One family – One future)

Its concern is to safeguard its territory and political sovereignty.

Its international engagements are adapting to the changes taking place in the world. The policy of Non-alignment is transforming into a Policy of equidistance.

The engagements are Interest-based without joining any camp or military alliance (India to date has not joined any military alliance).

 

Indo-Russian Relations: Challenges and Opportunities.

Both Russia and India are in a similar situation with threats to their respective interests. From NATO and USA for Russia and China and Pakistan for India.

The prevailing circumstances and the geo-political world situation present both challenges and opportunities for cooperation.

The challenge is not to get drawn into the China-USA rivalry, resulting in divergent views and interests.

Opportunities include scope for closer cooperation, mutual growth and progress, collective security and sharing of resources, technology, knowledge, and information.

 

Mutually Common Concerns

    • Non-traditional security threats
    • Environmental degradation
    • Organised crime network.
    • Drug Trafficking.
    • Human Trafficking and illegal migration.
    • Religious/fundamental insurgencies.
    • Cyber security.
    • Nuclear terrorism and threats.
    • Biological threats and pandemics.

 

Indo-Russian Cooperation: New Approach.

New impetus is required to revitalise the time-tested Indo-Russian friendship.

Avoid the trap of a “with us or against us” mindset.

Understand each other’s compulsions and reasons.

Not let the business dealings (Russia with China, and Pakistan and India with the USA) come in the way of mutual friendship.

Engage each other with the aim of mutual and joint development, modernisation, transformation and growth.

Strengthen the old pillars and explore and build on new pillars. Unanimity and agreement already exist concerning the following:-

    • Nuclear Proliferation.
    • Review of existing multilateral organisations.
    • Trans-national crimes.
    • Environmental degradation issues.
    • Non-traditional security threats.

 

Indo-Russia Cooperation Way Ahead

Some of the suggested areas of cooperation are:-

 

Defence.

    • Develop into a symbiotic partnership.
    • Not see India as a defence market but as a development partner with joint R7D, development, design and production.
    • Share defence technology and know-how.
    • Support Indian endeavour of “Make in India” and “Make for the world”.
    • Increase Interoperability with regular multi-service exercises.
    • Assist each other in the mitigation of disaster situations arising out of enemy grey zone activities.
    • Assist each other in information warfare (Info dominance and narrative formulation).
    • Chart out an escalation ladder matrix of defence cooperation for political signalling.
    • Joint ventures for unmanned platforms. Drones. Swarms and anti-drone systems.
    • Address the concerns related to cost, Quality, Delay, and post-sale support.

 

Energy (Oil, Gas and Nuclear).

  • Besides the import and export of oil and gas, maybe explore the possibility of joint exploration.
  • Go beyond nuclear reactor building projects.
  • Maybe form a consortium for making for the rest of the world.

 

Diplomatic/Political Support

    • Continue mutual support in the common multilateral forum (UN, BRICS, RIC, G-20, SCO etc).
    • Respect each other’s sensitivities.
    • India has never joined and will not join any military alliance.
    • Quad is not a military alliance, nor is it an Asian NATO (it is not anti-Russia).

 

Science and Technology.

    • Joint R&D and manufacturing.
    • Sharing of knowledge.
    • Cyber security cooperation.
    • Joint space programs and projects.
    • Ares of Chips/semiconductors, high-pressure tools, medical equipment, telecom industry, maritime equipment and electronics.

 

Trade and economy.

    • Further, increase bilateral trade (already touched 45bn US $ to reach 50 bn US $ soon).
    • Make trade and business transactions attractive with “ease of doing business” policies.
    • Regain and maintain trade balance.
    • Besides Govt to Govt transactions, encourage Private sector (G2G and P2P) engagements.
    • Improve connectivity for cargo and personnel (Multi-mode travel corridors)
    • Review the Rupee-Rouble exchange system for trade to make it mutually beneficial. It could become a model for the rest of the world to emulate.
    • India-Russia inter-government commission with two wings (to look after the trade, science & tech, and economy issues and a second one for military and military technology issues) is the right approach. Energise the commission.
    • Two plus two dialogue is also a step in the right direction. Follow the top-down approach.
    • A joint entrepreneur’s council is a good idea.
    • Enhancing each other’s MRO (Maintenance, Repair and Overhaul) capabilities (for both civil and military aviation).

 

Cultural exchanges.

    • Increase the number of exchanges and encourage tourism.
    • Review the VISA rules to make them travel-friendly.
    • Increase the travel facilities (Flights and sea travel).
    • Encourage language studies.
    • India’s skilled manpower can be effectively used to offset Russia’s demographic issues.

 

Infrastructure development. Besides making for each other, can explore the possibility of jointly making for the world (Africa could be one possible market).

 

Environmental concerns. Jointly develop and promote a globally acceptable carbon emission policy and monitoring system.

 

Other areas of possible cooperation are:-

    • Diamond industry.
    • Food security – Agro, meat and dairy products.
    • IT and chip development and manufacture.
    • Pharmaceutical industry.
    • Biotech and pandemic mitigation.
    • Natural resources.

 

Coming up:- A detailed write-up on the subject.

 

Question

Should India join the Western bloc or continue with its existing policy?

 

Opinion Poll

Russia identifies itself with:-

a) Europe

b) Asia

c) Both

d) Eurasia.

 

Suggestions and value additions are most welcome

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Information and data included in the blog are for educational & non-commercial purposes only and have been carefully adapted, excerpted, or edited from sources deemed reliable and accurate. All copyrighted material belongs to respective owners and is provided only for purposes of wider dissemination.

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442: WORLD IN TRANSITION

 

Pic Courtesy: Internet

 

Significant changes are occurring globally across various aspects of society, politics, economics, technology, and the environment. The world is undergoing a period of transformation, where traditional structures, systems, and paradigms are evolving or giving way to new ones.

 

International governance and engagement order and systems are changing.

 

Existing organisations/institutions no longer cater to the interests of all countries.

 

Multilateralism is changing to unilateralism.

 

Regional organisations and alliances are springing up.

 

Bilateral engagements are becoming issue-based.

 

Agreement on some issues and disagreement on others is becoming an acceptable norm.

 

Collective security is still relevant but with some changes.

 

The pandemic has exposed the fault lines in international engagements and highlighted the issue of trust deficit.

 

The pandemic and the ongoing conflicts (Russia-Ukraine and Israel-Hamas) have exposed the lack of resilience in supply chain aspects.

 

Technology is changing the conduct of domestic and international politics by influencing decisions and actions.

 

International engagements are by two main factors, Interests and Ideology. In my opinion, in recent times Interests have become predominant.

 

However, Ideology cannot be ignored. Beyond a particular threshold, ideology-based public opinion would influence the decisions and actions.

 

The flaws in the existing model of globalisation have been exposed. It is excessively centralised, benefitting few and is prone to supply chain disruptions due to natural or man-made situations.

 

Reverse globalisation has begun, with decoupling taking place with centralised centres. There is an opportunity for some to offer alternatives.

 

Most countries are pursuing the policy of self-reliance (Atmanirbharta).

 

Those who are reliant on others and do not have indigenous wherewithal and capability are looking and multiple sources.

 

The dollar as an international trade currency is being challenged. It was challenged earlier also but managed to retain its control. This time it is different as the challenge is from multiple quarters.

 

Several countries are formulating trade arrangements with exchange agreements in local currencies.

 

World power dynamics are changing from Bipolar to Unipolar to now Multipolar, with several power centres growing.

 

China is competing with the USA for the number one position, while the USA is trying to retain its leadership.

 

There is a fear of the Thucydides Trap resulting in conflict between the USA and China, adversely affecting the world.

Cold War 2.0 is starting.

China is converting its economic growth and technological development into military and political power.

 

China is displaying expansionist intent with belligerent and aggressive attitude.

 

The nature of conflict is undergoing a radical change.

 

The line between the state of war and peace is getting blurred. The absence of declared war does not mean no enemy hostile action.

 

Anything and everything is being used as a weapon.

 

New domains of warfare are emerging (Cyber, Space, Information and Electronic).

 

The new methods of conduct of conflict, create man-made disaster situations.

 

The conflict is no longer restricted to the military, the effect can be directly on the general public.

 

Bottom Line

The bottom line is to adapt to these changes and make appropriate changes in foreign and security policies.

 

Question

Are we doing the needful correctly and fast enough?

 

After Thought 

Inspite of decades and centuries of exploitation and ravaging Asia is bouncing back and growing. Coming century belongs to Asia. Provided we do not repeat the history and lose the opportunity by infighting.

 

Suggestions and value additions are most welcome

 

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441: RITU’S COLUMN: Asian Space Race Heats Up

 

Pic Courtesy: Internet

 

Ritu Sharma is a journalist, with a Master’s Degree in Conflict Studies and Management of Peace from the University of Erfurt, Germany. Her areas of interest include Asia-Pacific, the South China Sea, and Aviation history. She has been writing on subjects related to defence, foreign affairs, and nuclear technology for the last 15 years. She has written for PTI, IANS and The New Indian Express. Presently she is writing for the EurAsian Times.  

 

Her informative article on the subject was published on 28 feb 2024 on “The EurAsian Times”

(Views of the author are her own)

 

Asian ‘Space Race’ Heats-Up!

 

China Plans 100 Satellite Launches In 2024, as India Gears-Up For 1st Manned Space Voyage. The two countries of over 1.4 billion population have been jostling for influence in the world when not having stand-off over borders. India and China are gearing up to compete on a new frontier – Space.India has revealed the identity of the four cosmonaut designates for its first manned space mission and China is going to have two manned spaceflight missions besides 100 orbital launches.

 

India

 

This week, India announced 100 per cent Foreign Direct Investment in its space sector, spurring its growth. At present, the Indian space economy is valued at around US $8.4 billion, with a 2 per cent share in the global space economy. It is projected to reach US $44 billion by 2033 with about 8 per cent global share. And by 2040, it is expected to be a trillion-dollar industry.

 

Since the Indian government opened the sector for private players, 100 deep tech start-ups have sprung up. With Russia embroiled in the war in Ukraine, satellite launch services are predicted to be the fastest-growing segment in the Indian space economy, followed by satellite manufacturing. In the last 10 years, India launched about 400 satellites, whereas 10 years before that, only 33 satellites were launched.

 

The first Indian human spaceflight is scheduled to be launched in 2024-25. The spacecraft will take a crew of three and orbit around the Earth before being brought back to Earth. Revealing the identity of the four Indian Air Force pilots trained to go to space in an Indian-built spacecraft, Prime Minister Narendra Modi said: “By 2035, India will have its space station that will help us study the unknown expanses of space. In this period of Amrit Kaal, Indian astronauts will land on the surface of the moon on our rocket.”

 

Indian Space Research Organisation (ISRO) reached for the moon with its ambitious Chandrayaan-2. It was a technological leap for the space organization.

 

China

Meanwhile, China achieved a significant milestone in space exploration by sending its first manned mission on October 15, 2003. During this historic event, the Shenzhou V spacecraft, launched by a Long March 2F rocket, carried a single astronaut named Yang Liwei into orbit. This made China the third country to send humans into space after the US and Russia. Since then, China has taken giant strides in its manned space program with successful rendezvous and docking missions with the Tiangong-1 space station module.

 

In comparison to India, China’s space station is entering the normal operation stage, and within 2024, there will be two cargo spacecraft missions, two manned spaceflight missions, and two return missions.

 

The China Manned Space Agency (CMSA) recently unveiled the names of the new vehicles for future manned lunar exploration missions. The new manned spacecraft is named Mengzhou, which means “dream vessel.” The lunar lander is named Lanyue, which means “embracing the moon.” China plans to land its taikonauts (astronauts) on the moon before 2030.

 

China’s state-owned space giant China Aerospace Science and Technology Corporation (CASC) released the annual blue paper, which asserted that China’s space program is set to witness new milestones in 2024, with around 100 orbital launches planned. China is creating multiple satellite constellations.

 

China’s current Yaogan series of spy satellites allowed constant surveillance across the South China Sea, the Western Pacific, the Indian Ocean, Tibet, and also Galwan, where the Indian and Chinese soldiers had a deadly clash. For global navigation purposes, China is depending on a 35-satellite Beidou constellation.

 

According to a statement the CASC sent to the Chinese government-owned Global Times, Beijing has scheduled nearly 70 orbital launches for 2024, aiming to send some 290 spacecraft into space.

 

Among the missions, newly-developed Long March-6C and Long March-12 carrier rockets will execute their maiden flight missions. China’s much-anticipated Phase-4 lunar probe mission will see new progress, including the launch of the Queqiao-2 relay satellite and Chang’e-6 mission, which will bring back the first lunar sample from the South Pole-Aitken Basin on the far side of the moon.

 

In 2023, China executed 67 launch missions, the second highest in the world, and 221 spacecraft were developed and launched. The blue paper said it broke Chinese records for launch frequency and spacecraft quantity.

 

The Long March series of carrier rockets successfully launched 47 times with a perfect success rate, breaking through 500 launches cumulatively, and other commercial rockets launched 20 times.

 

Space: The Next Frontier

 

China’s space exploration has evoked considerable interest, caution, and concern from the US, which considers it a top security concern.

 

The US intelligence community’s annual threat assessment, published on April 13, 2021, mentions that Chinese civilian space programs, such as a future space station and a network of navigation satellites, are capabilities that China is pursuing that could be a threat to the United States.

 

Space technology has a dual purpose. There is apprehension that China could use civilian space programs as a cover for military advancements. For instance, a country can develop a satellite capable of conducting rendezvous and proximity operations for refuelling or debris removal from space. But the same technology can be used to attack an adversary’s satellite, degrade its orbit, or simply get close enough to have a look. Repurposing a rocket’s second stage for commercial or scientific use has military applications such as hosting payloads or sensors.

 

In 2007, the Chinese space program drew international criticism after Beijing conducted an unannounced test in 2007 in which it used a missile to blow up a defunct Chinese satellite. This created debris that posed a threat to other space assets. India also conducted its Anti-Satellite (ASAT) test on March 27, 2019.

 

The lower earth orbit is becoming “congested, competitive and contested.” Tiny shards of metal can pose a danger, and the number of objects is growing rampantly. In 2021, the US Space Command is now tracking more than 48,000 in near-Earth orbit, including satellites, telescopes, space stations, and pieces of debris of all sizes, up from 25,000 just three years ago.

 

While the doubt over China’s intent has evoked apprehension about its space program, the US signed a deal with India in 2023 to send a manned spaceship with an Indian astronaut to the International Space Station. ISRO and the US National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) have agreed to launch a joint mission to the International Space Station (ISS) in 2024. This could be the precursor to ISRO’s Gaganyaan (meaning spaceship) – the manned mission to space scheduled to happen by the end of 2024 or the beginning of 2025. NASA will provide advanced training to ISRO astronauts to launch a joint mission to the ISS in 2024.

 

India also signed the Artemis Accords, which are a set of principles and guidelines for countries seeking to explore the moon, Mars, and beyond. The American-led effort seeks to maintain a permanent presence in the lunar orbit and on the moon’s surface, more than half a century after the Apollo missions put the first human on the moon’s surface. China is not part of it. The accords set up the basis for international cooperation in space exploration. The multilateral arrangement is meant to make humans “interplanetary species” as they venture onto Mars. The accord will pave the way for the 26 signatory countries to share data, technology, and resources to realize lunar exploration.

 

Suggestions and value additions are most welcome

 

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References and credits

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Disclaimer:

Information and data included in the blog are for educational & non-commercial purposes only and have been carefully adapted, excerpted, or edited from sources deemed reliable and accurate. All copyrighted material belongs to respective owners and is provided only for purposes of wider dissemination.

 

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