Pic Courtesy: Express Tribune
Question. In the comments section of one of the earlier posts, Air Cmde R Marwaha (Retd) had raised a very pertinent question as to why does US continue to engage and support Pakistan?
Catch 22. The question is curiously intriguing because United States rewards Pakistan for the very behaviour it seeks to curb i.e. terrorism under nuclear umbrella.
Three Main Reasons. Pakistan – US relations like any other engagement are governed by geopolitics realities and compulsions. In the recent years, contours of these relations have derived largely from US’s China and India policies, the Afghanistan war and her national security concerns related to international terrorism.
Factors. Various factors affecting the relations between the two countries are enumerated below in brief (each one is a topic of debate in itself). The changes in Pakistan – US relationship policy have been and in future would be governed by these factors in isolation or collectively.
Pak Demography. Pakistan is the sixth most populous country in the world. By 2050 it is estimated that it will become the biggest Muslim nation (ahead of Indonesia) and the fourth most populous country in the world after India, China and the United States.
Pak’s Important Location. Pakistan lies in this unique geographic location, with a stake in the Western, Persian, Central Asian and South Asian dynamics. Pakistan is a strategically important country as it provides access to Central Asia, West Asia and South Asia – three of the most critical regions for world peace. It borders Afghanistan (where US fights its longest ever battle), Iran (which could be the theatre of a future US war), China (America’s biggest challenge) and India (one of the country US needs to contain China). Its strategic location at the crossroads of South Asia and Central Asia, makes it a pivotal player in a region with significant economic potential, particularly in the exploitation and transportation of oil and gas.
Terrorism. Pakistan has a pivotal role to play in the ‘War on Terror’ and is critical for the international effort to counter global and regional terrorist groups.
Afghanistan. Pakistan is a critical player in US effort to stabilise the situation in Afghanistan. Pakistan’s location next to Afghanistan and historical involvement in that country make it a critical player in efforts to stabilise the country and to ensure that it does not return to being an operating base for extremists.
Nuclear Aspect. Besides the ‘War on Terror’ and the war in Afghanistan, Pakistan is important given its possession of nuclear weapons. Pakistan is one of the most troubled nations, widely viewed as “too dangerous to fail” because of the toxic mix of the terrorist proxies it nurtures under its ever-expanding nuclear umbrella. The risk of Pakistan falling apart along with its nuclear weapons is a far scarier prospect for the world. US engagement with Pakistan allows US to have some say in this direction.
Energy Security. Pakistan is essential for America’s energy security. Given its proximity to two of the world’s major oil reserves – Central and West Asia.
China. US cannot leave Pakistan entirely dependent on and strategically useful only to China.
Realpolitik Game. Supporting Pakistan, keeps US alignments open in South Asia. It also gives them some leverage over India.
Comments and Value additions are most welcome.
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References:
- https://www.lawfareblog.com/new-way-engaging-pakistan
- https://www.files.ethz.ch/isn/94663/Rakisits,.pdf
- https://www.quora.com/Why-does-the-United-States-give-so-much-foreign-aid-to-Pakistan