103:Pakistan Through US Prism (Part1)

USA has been partnering with Pakistan for the war against terrorism. Few reports are available in the open domain about how USA perceives Pakistan and its Military.

Some of these perceptions of USA about Pakistan and comments are as follows:

 

General

Pakistanis remain in a grim mood about the state of their country. Overwhelming majorities are dissatisfied with national conditions, unhappy with the nation’s economy, and concerned about political corruption and crime. 

Most Pakistanis see a struggle taking place between Islamic fundamentalists and groups that want to modernize the country; and the vast majority of those who do see a struggle identify with the modernizers.

 

About Pakistan Army.

The “Islamisation” within the officer corps of Pakistan army or its susceptibility to radical religious influence is exaggerated.

The Pakistan army is likely to maintain its cohesion and discipline in spite of demographic and social changes in the officer corps.

 

Comments:

 Doubt exists about the first observation. Pak army and the religious institutions have a symbiotic relationship. Enough literature is available in the open domain to suggest that islamisation is taking place in the Pakistan army and it is getting radicalised.

The second observation does have merit. Recent events and writings suggest that some fault lines are appearing in the army but not serious enough to disrupt the cohesion or discipline.

 

On External / Internal Threats.

India is considered as the biggest external threat.

There is a “generational divide” about the prioritization of Pakistan’s external and internal threats. A growing number of people believe Pakistan-focused militant groups are Pakistan’s most significant military threat, exceeding that posed by India.

Pakistanis describe terrorism as a very big problem. Afghanistan-focused or India-focused militant groups are not perceived as military threats to the Pakistani state. Pakistanis feel less threatened by the Taliban and much less by al Qaeda, nonetheless, both the Taliban and al Qaeda remain unpopular among Pakistanis.

 

Comments:

Portraying India as the biggest threat is raison d’être for the Pakistan army.

 Pakistan’s policy of bleeding India through thousand cuts has resulted in Pakistan encouraging, sheltering, arming, training and supporting number of militant groups. Not realising that it is a two edged sword.

 History is replete with examples of militant groups turning against the states that nurtured them.

 

About USA

America’s overall image remains negative in Pakistan. The U.S.-led war in neighbouring Afghanistan is widely opposed by Pakistanis. The United States is viewed as a military threat to Pakistan because of the perception that it intends to seize or neutralize Pakistan’s nuclear arsenal.

 

Comments:

 Pakistanis do not trust Americans – they are tolerated because of the gains (monetary and military equipment) accrued from them.

 

On Governance & Civil-Military Relations.

The Pakistan army supports democracy in theory, but is harshly critical of civilian governance in practice.

The Pakistan army’s desire to maintain its traditional influence over key foreign policy and national security decisions continues to create friction in civil-military relations.  

Because of the Pakistan army’s intuitive distaste for politicians and the media, an eventual return to military rule cannot be ruled out.

 

Comments:

Generally all States have an Army – in Pakistan the Army has a State

 Army is the most powerful institution in Pakistan. It is well known that it dictates all the major foreign policy and the security decision. Army is unlikely to let go of the power it yields.

 At the moment having a civil government suits them. The declining law and order situation and the worsening economic condition can be blamed on the civil government making them a scapegoat.

 Chances of Military take over always exist.

 

About Nuclear Issues.

Because of Pakistan’s steadily deteriorating internal security environment and the increasing size and scope of its nuclear program, the safety and security of Pakistani nuclear weapons or nuclear materials are increasingly threatened.    

An eroding conventional military balance with India and systemic weaknesses in the Pakistani military establishment make it likely that Pakistan will be compelled to escalate to the nuclear level quickly in a future war with India.

 

Comments:

 Safety of the nuclear weapons and the possibility of it falling in the wrong hands is a major worry not only for India but entire world.

 Pakistan often resorts to nuclear sabre rattling and following its policy of terrorism in the nuclear overhang. This bluff was called off during the Balakot strikes. Notwithstanding, it is a major factor to be considered in the escalatory ladder matrix.

 

On relations with India.

Future generations of senior leaders may be more amenable to resolving contentious issues with India to concentrate on dealing with internal security problems, but the current generation will continue to see value in India-focused militant groups.

 

Comments:

This observation does not seem to be true. The new generations in Pakistan are being taught anti India sentiments even during their schooling.

 The observation has a slim chance of reality if the general public realises the futility of the entire policy and revolts against it.

 

On Afghanistan.

The Pakistan will continue to use Afghanistan-focused militant groups like the Afghan Taliban and the Haqqani Network to shape a government in Afghanistan more to its liking.

 

Comments:

 The observation is valid. Pakistan has a stake in Afghanistan due to numerous reasons. It will continue to interfere in affairs of Afghanistan.

 

Comments and value additions are most welcome.

Coming up: Part 2 – About Pakistan’s perception of India

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References

1.https://www.wilsoncenter.org/publication/the-quetta-experience-attitudes-and-values-within-pakistans-army

2.https://www.jstor.org/stable/41393568?seq=4#metadata_info_tab_contents

3.https://www.pewresearch.org/global/2010/07/29/concern-about-extremist-threat-slips-in-pakistan/

4 Replies to “103:Pakistan Through US Prism (Part1)”

  1. Why does US continue to be with Pak is baffling. Loss of face of the US in Afghanistan is purely curtsy of Pak ISI/Army (as you said the Army owns the state). trump had tried to put the screws on Pakistan but did not do it sufficiently strong enough. Why? not clear. The belief that some how Pakistan will continue to be with the USA is strong in spite of all the US deaths in Afghanistan because of Pak Army/ISI support to the Taliban. Could be because the US military has always been on the side of Pak armed forces. they have had and continue to have strong connections.

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