CHINA : NUCLEAR CAPABILITY BUILDING
Annual Report to US Congress. Office of the US secretary of defense recently published the unclassified part of the annual report on military and security developments involving the people’s republic of china. The US Department of Defense (DoD) has been providing this report for the last 20 years.
Excerpts from US Report.
- China’s strategic ambitions, evolving view of the security landscape, and concerns over survivability are driving significant changes to the size, capabilities, and readiness of its nuclear forces.
- China’s nuclear forces will significantly evolve over the next decade as it modernizes, diversifies, and increases the number of its land-, sea-, and air-based nuclear delivery platforms.
- Over the next decade, China’s nuclear warhead stockpile—currently estimated to be in the low- 200s—is projected to at least double in size as China expands and modernizes its nuclear forces.
- China is pursuing a “nuclear triad” with the development of a nuclear capable air-launched ballistic missile (ALBM) and improving its ground and sea-based nuclear capabilities.
- New developments in 2019 further suggest that China intends to increase the peacetime readiness of its nuclear forces by moving to a launch-on-warning (LOW) posture with an expanded silo- based force.
Comments
Ambition. China has a global ambition and has clearly articulated her long term vision for improving her strategic capability. Towards this aim she has developed a large scale weapons research, development and manufacturing capability including nuclear weapons. China is modernising and expanding her nuclear arsenal, and is developing the nuclear triad, made up of new land and sea-based missiles and nuclear-capable aircraft.
Displaying Nuclear Prowess. China now publicly displays its nuclear forces more frequently as compared to the past but releases little information about the force numbers or future development plans. China revealed its most advanced nuclear weapon DF – 41 at the National Day military parade held in Beijing on October 1, 2019.
Focus. It seems the focus of the country’s nuclear modernization efforts is keeping US in mind. China is striving for a nuclear parity with the United States and Russia. China feels that it is far ahead of India in this field.
Numbers. DOD’s estimate of the number of nuclear warheads in the Chinese nuclear weapons stockpile is about 200s. Some analysts feel that this number could be approximately 320. China also feels that the requirement is about 1,000 nuclear warheads and at least 100 DF 41 strategic missiles.
Delivery system. China feels nuclear triad – nuclear weapon launch capabilities from sea, land and air – is necessary. Development of JL-3 submarine-launched ballistic missiles, Type 096 nuclear-powered strategic submarine and H-20 strategic stealth bomber are focused towards this aim.
Land-based missiles. There are reports of increases in the number of ICBMs, IRBMs, and GLCMs. The number of missile bases and the number of missile launchers located at each base are increasing.
ICBMs. It is estimated that China has approximately 100 ICBMs. Reports also indicate that the ICBM (DF-5B) can carry up to five multiple independently-targetable re-entry vehicles (MIRVs).
IRBMs and MRBMs. China has a significant force of IRBMs and MRBMs that include both nuclear and conventional versions. It is estimated to be about 350 launchers with many more missiles. But it is likely that only a smaller number of these launchers are assigned nuclear warheads. This includes the DF-21, of which two of four versions (DF-21A and DF-21E) are nuclear, and the DF-26, which is dual-capable. This mix of nuclear and conventional capabilities in the Chinese IRBM and MRBM missile force presents a potential complication. Possibility of launch preparations of a conventional missile could be misinterpreted as an impending nuclear launch.
Sea-based missiles. China has six Jin-class (Type 094) nuclear-powered ballistic missile submarines (SSBNs). Each of China’s SSBNs can carry up to 12 JL-2 SLBMs, each capable of carrying a single warhead. China is developing a next-generation SSBNs––known as the Type 096––that will carry a new SLBM (JL-3). The new missile will have an extended range estimated to be over 10,000km).
Air Delivery system. It has been reported that PLAAF has been “reassigned” a nuclear role with H-6N and China’s future strategic stealth bomber H-20 as dual-capable delivery. The H-6N has a modified fuselage that could carry the two air-launched ballistic missiles (ALBMs) platforms.
Nuclear Policy. China adopted No First Use nuclear policy well before India in 1964. China has long maintained it would never launch its nuclear weapons first, that it would only fire them after having been attacked. There is no stated change in the policy as her defense white paper of 2019 puts it, “China is always committed to a nuclear policy of no first use of nuclear weapons at any time and under any circumstances, and not using or threatening to use nuclear weapons against non-nuclear-weapon states or nuclear-weapon-free zones unconditionally.” However, latest developments indicate otherwise. Deployment of nuclear triad, increase in number of weapon stockpile, fielding of a large variety of modern, nuclear-capable missiles (of various ranges, some fitted with penetration aids and multiple independently targetable warheads) and investment in a new, silo-based intercontinental ballistic missile—typically considered a first-strike weapon indicate preparation for far more than retaliation and towards first strike capability.
Nuclear Doctrine. China’s nuclear modernization also seems to indicate a shift from its longstanding minimalist force posture. There is an increasing evidence that China is also moving towards a Launch-On-Warning (LOW) posture. A LOW posture requires mating of warheads to the missiles. This could imply that everything else is ready and that the warhead is stored nearby so that it could be mated very quickly if necessary.
Nuclear Arms race. China claims that she has no intention of launching a nuclear arms race, but moderately expanding its nuclear arsenal in both quantity and quality in line with the demands of national security. However, increase in its arsenal is bound to create an arms race in the region.
Treaty / Arms Control. Efforts are being made towards arresting the arms race. It is being proposed that China join the four other permanent members of the United Nations Security Council at a summit to initiate a new round of arms control talks. China is being encouraged to make a three-way agreement with Russia, and the United States to limit nuclear weapons. China has previously rejected participating in a trilateral nuclear arms deal on the grounds that its forces are too small. It wants to come at par with the other two and then speak from position of equal strength.
References
http://www.indiandefencereview.com/news/nuclear-capability-of-india-and-china/
https://www.thequint.com/voices/opinion/china-us-nuclear-weapons-warhead-russia-treaty
https://www.globaltimes.cn/content/1187775.shtml
https://fas.org/blogs/security/2020/09/the-pentagons-2020-china-report/
https://foreignpolicy.com/2020/03/13/china-nuclear-arms-race-mystery/
Comments and value additions are most welcome
Also check out earlier published articles in this series.
Comments by Mrs Manpreet Sethi.
From Centre of Air Power Studies.
She is an authority on Nuclear Matters.
“Well put together Sir. Only three points on which I think little differently.
1. Minimalism- as of now China has not given that up. Still retains pretty low numbers.
2. LOW – has not yet adopted. Only some noises on developing early warning systems have been made.
3. Inevitability of arms race in region – it’s in India’s hand, and interest, to invest wisely in capability build-up and steer clear of arms race. Can we?
But these are minor quibbles. Agree with basic point of the piece.
Thankful to her for the value addition.
Comments from Former CAS (ACM Arup Raha)
Anil, your comments clearly brings out the logic of Chinese nuclear capability development.
Thanks.
Hasn’t China tweaked her NFU policy to suggest NFU only against Non Nuclear States?
“China is always committed to a nuclear policy of no first use of nuclear weapons at any time and under any circumstances, and not using or threatening to use nuclear weapons against non-nuclear-weapon states or nuclear-weapon-free zones unconditionally.”
Stated policy