space – Page 5 – Air Marshal's Perspective

? Response to Questionnaire ?

In your opinion, how do advancements in AI Pilots have the potential to transform future aerial operations and impact Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAVs)?

AI, Quantum Computing, and Miniaturisation are technologies with maximum impact on air warfare. The combination of these increases the computing power of the aerial systems while reducing their weight and size.

AI-powered UAVs are the future of the air warfare.

The combination of unmanned aerial platforms and long-range vectors is changing warfare into “No Contact Warfare”.

Future air warfare will see the next generation of aerial platforms wherein a combination of manned and unmanned platforms will work as a team. The concept is being called the “Loyal Wing Man Concept” (I call it the “Mother Goose Concept”). Work is going on toward it worldwide including India.

The second future trend is Swarm Technology, wherein, several small (Some as small as insects) drones would work in unison towards a defined task.

Anti-drone systems will also develop. These systems will contain multi-sensors and an assortment of weapons for hard or soft kill. They will be AI-powered to process the large amounts of information being generated.

Regarding the critical aspect of securing Air Superiority, particularly in the context of the Sino-Indian Arena and the Indo-Pak scenario, do you believe the Indian Air Force (IAF) is adequately prepared for the challenges of the future? What, in your view, are the essential requirements for the IAF to meet these challenges effectively?

IAF always works on plans. The first one is to fight with whatever it has and the second is for capability development for future challenges.

Over the last nine decades (especially in the last four decades) air warfare capabilities (like strategic airlift, precision, Standoff, all-weather round-the-clock operation, high altitude ops, etc.) of the IAF have improved significantly.

At present IAF still can make the difference and provide the asymmetry while dealing with current challenges. However, its war-fighting endurance (numerical strength of fighter and combat support aircraft) needs to be boosted.

Capability and capacity development is a continuous process. The future trajectory should cater to future challenges. Some of the essential requirements to deal with future challenges would require:-

- - Enhancement of War Endurance.

- - Infusion of Technology (Quantum, AI, Hypersonic, Stealth, etc.)

- - Reorientation & reorganisation to deal with Grey Zone operations and warfare in domains of warfare like Cyber, Space, Information, and Electronics.

- - Integration with surface forces and government agencies for the whole of government response.

- - Self-reliant defence industry.

Recognizing the strategic significance of Space in Future Air Warfare, how imperative do you believe it is for India to make the necessary considerations and investments in this domain?

Space has permeated into every aspect of life (communications, surveys, education, banking, traffic management, health care disaster management, etc.).

It has also become an essential domain in warfare (for communications, surveillance, navigation targeting, etc.).

The long-range vectors Including Hypersonic) and new-generation platforms are using the medium of space.

In such a scenario of high dependence on space-based systems, space warfare (i.e. denial of space operations to the enemy and freedom of own forces to use the medium of space) both offensive and defensive becomes very important.

India’s space program is progressing well, however, the space-based technologies and systems are developed first for civilian use and then for the military. This work needs to go on in parallel.

Private participation besides public R&D and industry is essential.

An appropriate organisation needs to be set up to harness space and deal with space warfare. Advanced Air Forces like The USAF have a space command. China has gone a step further by making a separate service (Joint Strategic Support Force) to deal with all four domains (Cyber, Space, Information, and Electronic).

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While researching for “future of warfare”, I came across an interesting article about classification of wars over the years into generations.

These thoughts are of Russian military theorists Major General Vladimir Slipchenko (1935–2005). General Slipchenko is considered as one of the leading thinkers on “non-contact” and “sixth-generation” warfare.

Slipchenko’s while examining warfare, classifies warfare into six generations.

Slipchenko’s Generations of Warfare

(Source: Vladimir Slipchenko, Voiny Novogo Pokolenia – Distantsionnye i Bezkontaktnye (Moscow: Olma-Press, 2004), pp. 32– 34.

No Contact Warfare. Slipchenko ties the idea of sixth-generation warfare to a concept of non-contact or contactless warfare. He conveys the idea that future war between modern states will take place without direct contact.

Future Warfare. Slipchenko outlined wars of the future as follows:

The role and importance attached to nuclear weapons will gradually decline.

Conventional long-range high-precision strike weapons will grow in importance.

Wars will be shorter than in the past.

Advanced militaries will restructure their forces from the traditional army, navy and air force to strategic attack forces and strategic defense forces.

The tactical level of warfare will decline in importance and the strategic level will become the main emphasis in future warfare.

The main role for land forces in the future will be to support the air force.

Seventh-Generation Warfare: Info Warfare

Slipchenko also worked on the concept of a future “seventh generation” of warfare, which he forecast could emerge in the 2050s among the most advanced military powers. Numerous aspects of this work, especially in relation to the exponential growth in the importance of information in modern and future warfare are already percolating into the modern day warfare.

Slipchenko ahead of his time highlighted the importance of cyber along with information in the future battle space, and also forecast this area emerging as a separate combat arm. He identifies the centrality of information in modern and future warfare, forecasting that its utility would eventually move beyond a combat support role and into the area of essentially a combat arm.

Slipchenko identified information as a future weapon in war similar to the destructive effect of kinetic systems, and suggested that this would influence war in its entirety from beginning to conflict termination. He estimated that info warfare will transform warfare beyond the strategic level to reach truly global scales.

According to Slipchenko, information superiority would be the key to gaining superiority in non-contact warfare. Domination would be required in the information domain of space systems as well as reconnaissance, warning, navigation, meteorological, command and control, and communications assets.

Information Confrontation. Slipchenko argued that the information confrontation demands continuous exploitation as compared to information warfare during a skirmish. Possibly hinting at exploitation of info warfare even in no war conditions (Present day Grey Zone).

Comments

Slipchenko’s Thoughts and predictions are coming true, that too ahead of expected timelines.

Information has become a new domain for warfare.

Information warfare is not in isolation but getting linked with other domains of cyber, space and electronics.

A new service is evolving to deal with this type of warfare (e.g. Chinese Joint Strategic Support Force).

This warfare is being exploited in a conflict scenario, without declaring open war i.e. Grey Zone warfare.

Additional Thought

Seventh or eighth generation warfare is also developing in another direction in parallel. The kinetic or contact warfare being fought by unmanned machines (or a combination of manned and unmanned machines). These machines will have a very high computing power, will be AI enabled and will work in a networked environment.

Random Observations

Sci-Fi movies become reality sooner or later.

Question

What are your views about the direction in which warfare is progressing ?

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