Tag: China

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NEWS AND VIEWS (NATIONAL)

 

NEWS – 1: Border Issues

Union Home Minister Amit Shah on Friday said India’s two major borders with Pakistan and Bangladesh will be completely secured in the next two years.

He was speaking on the occasion of the 59th Raising Day celebration of the Border Security Force (BSF).

 

VIEWS

    • The India-Pakistan Border is 2,290 km long and the India-Bangladesh border is 4,096 km.
    • In places, it has long riverine, mountains, and marshy areas where it is very difficult to erect fences.
    • Border fence alone cannot prevent infiltration, it has to be manned and equipped appropriately.
    • India keeps spending money on erecting, maintaining, and manning the fence. This is a slow bleed to its economy and security apparatus.
    • Also, there is the problem of underground tunnels across the fence.
    • A new dimension is the use of small tactical drones coming across for smuggling and attack with small weapons.
    • Hamas’s attack against Israel has opened a new threat of mass infiltration across the border by sub-conventional aerial platforms.

 

 

NEWS-2: Drone Threat at the Border

BSF director general Nitin Agarwal has disclosed that:-

    • 90 Pakistani drones have been shot down on the border in a year.
    • The number of drone sightings on the India-Pakistan border has increased to 300, compared to 268 in 2022, 109 in 2021, 49 in 2020, and 35 in 2019.
    • These drones were within a range of 2-10 km on the border.
    • These drones carry narcotics, arms, and improvised explosive devices.
    • BSF has seized about 1,000 kg of heroin over the last year.
    • BSF has also deployed a hand-held static and vehicle-mounted anti-drone system to counter the increasing threat of drones on the Indo-Pak border.
    • The seized and shot-down drones are largely made in China.

 

VIEWS

    • This subcon threat is here to stay.
    • It is a grey zone activity that would continue even in the no war no peace scenario.
    • Anti-drone systems would be heavy in demand.
    • Cheap Chinese drones are finding their way into Pakistan.
    • China has also supplied armed drones to Pakistan.
    • Pakistan is also collaborating with Turkey for the development of indigenous drones.

 

 

NEWS-3: India Border Talks with China

    • The Ministry of External Affairs (MEA) of India disclosed that a virtual meeting took place under the framework of the Working Mechanism for Consultation and Coordination on India-China Border Affairs (WMCC). Gourangalal Das, Joint Secretary (East Asia) in the Ministry of External Affairs, led the Indian delegation. The Chinese team was headed by the director-general, of boundary and oceanic affairs in the Chinese foreign ministry.
    • The MEA statement said that the two sides reviewed the situation along the LAC in the Western Sector of the India-China border areas, and engaged in an open, constructive, and in-depth discussion of proposals to resolve the remaining issues and achieve complete disengagement in eastern Ladakh.
    • Both sides decided to hold the next round of senior military commanders’ meetings at the earliest.
    • They further agreed on the need to maintain peace and tranquillity along the border areas, ensure a stable situation on the ground, and avoid any untoward incident.

 

VIEWS

    • The situation has been tense after the Galwan clash in Jun 2020. The Indian and Chinese troops are locked in a confrontation at certain friction points in eastern Ladakh.
    • As a result of a series of military and diplomatic talks, the two sides completed the disengagement process in 2021 on the north and south banks of the Pangong Lake and in the Gogra area.
    • The Indian side has been strongly pressing for the resolution of the lingering issues at Depsang and Demchok. There has been no breakthrough so far.
    • “Maintain peace and tranquillity along the border areas” are hollow words used by China to delay the process and buy time.
    • China also has mastered the art of confusing the issue with false claims and documents.
    • China cannot be trusted as it continues to keep the pot boiling.

 

 

NEWS-4: Indian Navy Day Announcements About Women Induction

The Chief of Naval Staff, Admiral R. Hari Kumar announced during his speech at a press conference ahead of the Navy Day:-

    • CNS lauded the Agnipath scheme, calling it a much-needed, transformational change.
    • More than 1,000 women agniveers have been incorporated into the Indian Navy. (The first batch of Agniveers graduated from the premier-establishment, INS Chilka, in March this year. And importantly, this batch of Agniveers includes 272 female Agniveer trainees as well. The second batch of Agniveers had a total of 454 women. With the third batch number has crossed 1,000.
    • He asserted that these statistics stand testament to the Indian Navy’s philosophy of all roles and all ranks concerning the deployment of women in the service, both for officers and for personnel below the rank of officer.
    • He also announced appointment of the first woman commanding officer of an Indian naval ship.

 

VIEWS

    • Time will tell about the success or failure of the Agnipath scheme and its long-term effect on the operational preparedness of the forces.
    • Periodic review and midterm corrections are essential for the success of the scheme.
    • This scheme should be extended to paramilitary forces and other central and state government services.
    • Women are being inducted in all three services at the officer level and in other ranks.
    • Army and IAF have already appointed women as commanding officers.

 

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References and credits

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Disclaimer:

Information and data included in the blog are for educational & non-commercial purposes only and have been carefully adapted, excerpted, or edited from sources deemed reliable and accurate. All copyrighted material belongs to respective owners and is provided only for purposes of wider dissemination.

 

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Global Conflicts & Lessons for India’s Airpower

 

Observer Research Foundation (ORF), under it’s National Security Dialogues

organised a seminar on 26 Oct 23.

 

Subject – “Global Conflicts & Lessons for India’s Airpower”

 

 

Event Description: Over the last 18-months a plethora of debates have sprung in the aftermath of the Ukraine-Russia conflict and the Armenia-Azerbaijan war regarding the centrality of airpower in conflict. With the growing use of drones for offensive operations, new forms of air-defence systems being employed, and the minimal usage and impact of conventional fighter aircraft in these conflicts, there are many lessons for India’s airpower capacity as well.

 

So, what lessons can these changes and conflicts have on India’s airpower capacity? Is there a need for new doctrines to be incorporated by the Indian Air Force? What implications does the IAF’s depleting fighter aircraft squadron strength have on its capabilities?

 

Aspects discussed :-

    • Perspective on recent wars.
    • Centrality of Air Power.
    • Offensive use of Drones.
    • Changes in Air Defence.
    • Minimal use of Fighter aircraft.
    • Lessons drawn.
    • Need for new Doctrine.
    • Depleting strength of Fighter aircraft.
    • Balanced Force structure planning.
    • Defence production eco system.
    • Self reliance.
    • Importance of situational awareness and space based recce systems.

 

Interactive session was very interesting and question on following aspects were addressed:-

 

    • Duration and tempo of war.
    • Air balance vis-a-vis China.
    • IAF  training  and errors/mistakes.
    • Theaterisation and IAF.
    • Defence against sub con threat.
    • Future force structure.
    • Network-centric operations.
    • Chinese 5th gen ac.
    • Space force.
    • Drone utilisation issues.
    • Ballistic missile defence.

 

Enjoyed the interaction as a panelist.

 

To view the event, please click on the link below :-

 

 

For Q&A coverage please click on the links below:-

 

Q & A 1 :-

 

 

Q & A 2 :-

 

 

Q & A 3 :-

 

 

Q & A 4 :-

 

 

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Disclaimer:

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THUCYDIDES’S TRAP: DRAGON CHALLENGING THE EAGLE

 

“It was the rise of Athens and the fear that this instilled in Sparta that made war inevitable.”

– Thucydides, History of the Peloponnesian War

 

Thucydides was a general and historian from Athens. His book “History of the Peloponnesian War” detailed what caused the conflict between the Athenian Delian League and the Spartan Peloponnesian League. While the Peloponnesian League was declared the winner, much of Greece had been destroyed and the power in the region was almost entirely depleted, which left them vulnerable to Persian invasion.

 

Thucydides has been christened “the father of scientific history.” More than 2,400 years ago, the Athenian historian Thucydides offered a powerful insight: “It was the rise of Athens, and the fear that this inspired in Sparta, that made war inevitable.”

 

The Thucydides’ Trap, is a term popularised by American political scientist Graham T. Allison in 2015 to describe an apparent tendency towards war when an emerging power threatens to displace an existing great power as a regional or international hegemon. The term was coined in relation to a potential military conflict between the United States and the People’s Republic of China. The term gained further influence in 2018 as a result of an increase in US-Chinese tensions after US President Donald Trump imposed tariffs on almost half of China’s exports to the US, leading to a trade war.

 

“Thucydides’s Trap refers to the natural, inevitable discombobulation that occurs when a rising power threatens to displace a ruling power, and the resulting structural stress makes a violent clash the rule, not the exception”.

 – Graham T Allison’s American political scientist

 

Graham Allison’s book Destined for War: Can America and China Escape Thucydides’s Trap? Reviews and analyses sixteen cases in the past five hundred years, wherein a major rising power has threatened to displace a major ruling power. Allison illustrates how the tension between rising and ruling powers has often led to war—while also showing how war was avoided in the rivalries that did not end in violence.

Twelve of these sixteen rivalries ended in war.

 

 

Conflict of Interests

 

Will China become No. 1 and when is it likely to overtake the United States to become, say, the largest economy in the world, or primary engine of global growth, or the biggest market for luxury goods?

 

Indicators to be watched are:-

      • Size of Economy,
      • Manufacturing capability.
      • Trading Potential and volume,
      • Debt holding.
      • Foreign-direct-investment destination.
      • Energy consumption.
      • Oil imports.
      • Carbon emission.
      • Steel production.
      • Auto market.
      • Smartphone market.
      • E-commerce market.
      • Luxury-goods market.
      • Internet users.
      • Fastest supercomputer.
      • Foreign reserves.
      • The primary engine of global growth.

 

China has already surpassed the U.S. in some of these indicators. The questions are:-

 

Will China be able to sustain economic growth rates for in coming decade and beyond?

– It has slowed down a bit but continues to grow.

 

Are China’s current leaders serious about displacing the U.S. as the predominant power?

-Yes, China’s leaders are serious about displacing the United States as the top power in the world, in the foreseeable future.

 

Will China follow the path of Japan and Germany, and take its place as a responsible stakeholder in the international order that America has built?

– China does not like to be subordinate to anyone. It would want to be accepted as such.

 

The U.S. and China have the second and third-largest nuclear arsenals in the world, respectively, and an armed engagement between these two superpowers could quickly and easily escalate to a cataclysmic conflict. Such a conflict would not be in anyone’s best interest.

 

“War is a choice, not a trap.”

 

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References and credits

To all the online sites and channels.

  1. https://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2015/09/united-states-china-war-thucydides-trap/406756/
  2. https://www.belfercenter.org/thucydides-trap/case-file
  1. https://ndisc.nd.edu/news-media/news/to-set-and-spring-the-thucydides-trap/
  1. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Thucydides_Trap#:~:text=Thucydides’s%20Trap%20refers%20to%20the,the%20rule%2C%20not%20the%20exception.

Disclaimer:

Information and data included in the blog are for educational & non-commercial purposes only and have been carefully adapted, excerpted, or edited from sources deemed reliable and accurate. All copyrighted material belongs to respective owners and is provided only for purposes of wider dissemination.