554: INPUTS ON THE QUERY ABOUT THE SU-57 AIRCRAFT

 

Pic Courtesy Net

 

Inputs were sought by journalists about features and exportability of Russian SU-57 Aircraft.

 

 

The Director General of UAC in Russia has reportedly said that sixth-generation elements have been introduced to the SU-57 aircraft since it was designed, keeping a 50-year modernisation perspective in mind. He did not elaborate on the said features.

 

The statement by the Director General of the United Aircraft Corporation (UAC) regarding the Su-57 hints at its design philosophy and long-term adaptability rather than revealing specific technologies.

 

By “sixth-generation elements,” it suggests that the Su-57 incorporates features envisioned for future air combat scenarios, ensuring its relevance for decades.

 

However, the “sixth-generation” features are difficult to verify and may partly reflect aspirations or prototypes rather than currently functional systems.

 

Q1. What kind of sixth-gen features have been incorporated into the Su-57, if at all?

 

If the Su-57 has indeed incorporated elements of sixth-generation fighter technology, they are likely in the form of modular capabilities or groundwork for future upgrades.  Though he did not elaborate, possible sixth-generation elements in the Su-57 may include:

 

Multispectral Stealth: The Su-57 already features a blended body design and radar-absorbing materials. Sixth-gen adaptations might include measures to reduce detectability across broader electromagnetic spectrums, including infrared, UV, and visual bands.

 

Dynamic Camouflage: Future upgrades could involve coatings or materials that adapt to environmental conditions, making it harder to detect visually or thermally.

 

Pilot-AI Collaboration: Sixth-gen platforms emphasise reducing pilot workload. The Su-57 may incorporate rudimentary AI for threat detection, weapons selection, or autonomous operations in contested environments.

 

Predictive Maintenance: AI-driven diagnostics might monitor the aircraft’s systems in real-time, ensuring mission readiness and reducing downtime.

 

Combat Networking: The Su-57 is believed to integrate advanced data-sharing technologies, potentially acting as a command node for drones or other aircraft. This aligns with the sixth-gen principles of networked warfare.

 

Loyal Wingman Integration: It may already support collaboration with drones such as the S-70 Okhotnik-B, which Russia is developing to complement manned platforms.

 

Hypersonic Missile Integration: Russia has been vocal about developing hypersonic weapons like the Kinzhal. The Su-57 is likely compatible with these systems, preparing it for a future where such weapons dominate air combat.

 

Energy-Based Systems: Although unlikely operational now, the Su-57’s design might accommodate directed energy systems (e.g., lasers or high-powered microwaves) as these technologies mature.

 

Active Electronic Stealth: The Su-57’s avionics may already feature advanced EW systems capable of disrupting enemy sensors and communications while remaining undetected.

 

Cyber Security Resilience: With sixth-gen platforms emphasising electronic and cyber resilience, the Su-57 might include hardened systems to prevent hacking or electronic sabotage.

 

Super Manoeuvrability: The Su-57’s thrust-vectoring engines and aerodynamic design ensure agility, a characteristic often mentioned for sixth-gen fighters.

 

Sustained Operations: Durable materials and modular designs likely allow for easier long-term upgrades, ensuring the aircraft remains cost-effective and mission-capable over its extended lifespan.

 

Integrated Sensor Suite: The Su-57 might combine radar, infrared search-and-track (IRST), and electronic intelligence (ELINT) sensors into a cohesive system, giving the pilot a comprehensive view of the battle space.

 

Passive Detection: Advanced sensors capable of passively detecting and tracking targets without emitting signals, reducing the risk of counter-detection.

 

While some of these features might be in nascent stages or planned for future upgrades, incorporating such elements reflects Russia’s intent to ensure the Su-57 can remain competitive against emerging threats and sixth-gen platforms globally. However, given financial and technological constraints, the actual operational readiness of these technologies is another question entirely.

 

Q2. Do you think Russia is in a position to export the aircraft yet, with all these upgrades and constant work on it? There have been production woes in the wake of the Ukraine war. So, would it be possible to export the aircraft soon?

 

Exporting the Su-57 soon is likely a challenging proposition for Russia, given several constraints stemming from the aircraft’s development history, ongoing production issues, and geopolitical pressures.

 

Challenges.

 

Low Production Rates: Despite being announced as a next-gen fighter over a decade ago, Russia has struggled to produce the Su-57 in significant numbers. Reports suggest that only a handful of operational units are in service with the Russian Aerospace Forces (VKS). The Ukraine conflict has likely exacerbated supply chain and industrial capacity issues.

 

Dependence on Indigenous Systems: Russia aims to make the Su-57 less reliant on foreign components. However, sanctions have hindered access to advanced electronics and materials, slowing progress.

 

Prioritisation for Domestic Forces: With ongoing military operations and strained resources, domestic needs for the Su-57 will likely take precedence over export orders for the foreseeable future.

 

Economic Strain: The Russia-Ukraine war has diverted significant resources toward immediate battlefield needs, including drones, missiles, and lower-cost aircraft like the Su-34 and Su-25. This leaves less room for high-cost, complex platforms like the Su-57.

 

Sanctions and Tech Restrictions: Western sanctions have further isolated Russia’s defence industry, limiting its ability to procure high-performance components necessary for aircraft production.

 

Reputational Issues: The perceived underperformance of Russian equipment in Ukraine may deter potential buyers, especially those looking for proven, reliable systems.

 

Development Delays: Many advanced features touted for the Su-57, such as its next-generation Izdeliye 30 engines, still need to be fully operational. Exporting a version with incomplete features may harm its marketability.

 

Cost and Competition.  The Su-57’s price tag and unproven track record make it a tough sell against established fifth-gen fighters like the U.S. F-35.

 

While Russia is keen to market the Su-57 internationally, its current focus on stabilising production and addressing domestic needs makes exporting the aircraft unlikely. Unless production rates increase and the Su-57 proves its capabilities more convincingly, Russia’s ability to export it remains constrained. Moreover, geopolitical isolation and economic pressures from the Ukraine conflict further complicate these prospects.

 

Your valuable comments are most welcome.

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553: INDIA-RUSSIA LIKELY DEAL ABOUT VORONEZH RADAR SYSTEM

 

Pic Courtesy Net

 

Sputnik News sought inputs on the topic.

 

Recent Media Reports (08 Dec 24)

 

India is set to finalise a landmark USD 4 billion defence agreement with Russia to acquire an advanced long-range early warning radar system.

 

Discussions between Indian defence officials and a Russian delegation led by Almaz-Antey, the radar system manufacturer, have progressed rapidly.

 

Recent high-level talks in New Delhi and Bengaluru have emphasised the importance of involving Indian industry in the project, aligning with the government’s “Make in India” policy.

 

Around 60 per cent of the system’s components are expected to be manufactured domestically, a move that will promote self-reliance while strengthening Indo-Russian defence ties.

 

The radar system (likely a Voronezh-M radar) will likely be installed in Chitradurga in Karnataka, a strategically important location with advanced defence and aerospace facilities.

 

The Voronezh-M is an over-the-horizon (OTH) early warning radar system. Over-the-horizon (OTH) radar functions by using the ionosphere to refract radio waves, allowing detection of targets beyond the line of sight.

 

The site is expected to provide optimal coverage and integrate smoothly into India’s defence infrastructure, enhancing the country’s ability to monitor threats in real time.

 

According to claims, over 50 Indian partners, including startups, will manufacture at least 60 per cent of the system. The project is expected to generate substantial employment across the country.

 

The project is being handled by LRDE (Electronics and Radar Development Establishment), a part of India’s DRDO (Defence Research and Development Organisation).

 

Voronezh Radar System.

 

The Voronezh radar system is a series of advanced, long-range radar systems developed by Russia as part of its early warning network to detect ballistic missile launches and track objects in space. It is a key component of Russia’s missile attack warning system. The system is known for its high operational efficiency, modular construction, and relatively rapid deployment compared to earlier generations. The Voronezh radar system can detect and track ballistic missile launches and stealth aircraft and provide situational awareness of space objects.

 

Types of Voronezh Radars. The Voronezh radars come in several variants, including Voronezh-M, Voronezh-DM, and Voronezh-CM, each tailored for specific detection roles or improved performance.

 

    • Voronezh-M (VHF band). It is optimised for detecting objects at long ranges but with lower resolution. The radar is optimised to provide initial warning of medium and long-range ballistic missiles.
    • Voronezh-DM (UHF band). It offers better resolution and tracking accuracy for smaller targets.
    • Voronezh-SM (L-band). It has enhanced precision tracking and clutter rejection capabilities.
    • Voronezh-VP. The “VP” version combines both VHF and UHF for enhanced capabilities.

 

Data Fusion. The different Voronezh radars can work in unison as part of an integrated Missile Attack Early Warning System to generate a comprehensive radar picture of potential missile threats and space activity. Each Voronezh radar operates independently, monitoring its assigned sector. The data collected—such as target trajectories, speeds, and classifications—are transmitted to a central processing hub. The central system fuses this information with data from other radars, satellites, and sensors to create a unified, real-time radar picture of the monitored region.

 

Modular Design. The radar’s modular construction allows for faster assembly and deployment. It is reportedly cost-effective, reducing construction and operational costs.

 

Range and Coverage. The Voronezh radars can reportedly detect targets at distances of up to 6,000 kilometers. They can monitor objects at high altitudes, making them suitable for tracking ballistic missiles and satellites.

 

Several Voronezh radars are operational across Russia, forming a network to ensure coverage against potential missile threats. These radars are integrated into Russia’s broader missile early warning and air defence systems, alongside satellites and other ground-based radars. Their primary role is to provide warning of ballistic missile launches, contributing to strategic defence and deterrence.

 

Why is the Voronezh radar system essential for India, and what benefits will India gain from acquiring it?

 

Given its role in missile detection, early warning, and space surveillance, the Voronezh radar system could be strategically significant for India. If India were to acquire the Voronezh radar system from Russia, it would gain several strategic, operational, and geopolitical benefits. These advantages align with India’s defence modernisation and security requirements.

 

Enhanced Early Warning Capability. The Voronezh radar’s ability to detect objects up to 6,000 km would significantly enhance India’s early-warning capabilities for incoming ballistic missiles, aircraft, or space-based threats. With increasing regional missile threats from adversaries like Pakistan and China, an advanced early warning system is crucial for maintaining strategic stability.

 

Augmenting India’s Ballistic Missile Defense (BMD) Program. India has been developing its indigenous BMD systems, including the Prithvi Air Defence (PAD) and Advanced Air Defence (AAD) interceptors. A radar system like Voronezh could integrate seamlessly into India’s layered defence architecture, improving tracking precision and target acquisition.

 

Multi-Mission Utility. The Voronezh system is versatile and can monitor ballistic missiles, aircraft, and space-based objects. This multi-role capability aligns with India’s need for cost-effective, comprehensive defence solutions.

 

Dual-Use Capability. The radar’s ability to monitor terrestrial and space-based threats fits well with India’s civil and military objectives, including its burgeoning space program under ISRO.

 

Space Surveillance. The Voronezh radar can track space objects and debris, enhancing India’s situational awareness in outer space. This is particularly relevant as India expands its space program and navigates other nations’ potential militarisation of space.

 

Enhanced Decision-Making. Early detection improves command-and-control structures, allowing policymakers to make informed decisions during a crisis.

 

Technology Advancement. Access to high-end Russian technology would complement India’s indigenous radar development and foster domestic R&D through technology transfer agreements.

 

Strategic Deterrence. Possessing a system like the Voronezh radar enhances a country’s deterrence posture. Adversaries are less likely to initiate missile strikes if they know such strikes will be detected early and countered effectively.

 

Monitoring China. With its long-range, Voronezh radars would enable India to closely watch Chinese missile and air activities, including those in the Tibet and Xinjiang regions.

 

Regional Geopolitical Competition. In South Asia, India faces growing security challenges, including the potential deployment of advanced missile systems by neighbouring countries. An advanced radar like Voronezh would enable India to maintain technological parity and address evolving threats.

 

Potential Challenges

 

Integration Issues. Adapting Russian systems to work seamlessly with India’s existing platforms and protocols may require significant effort.

 

Technology Transfer. Given its strategic importance, Russia might be reluctant to share the complete technology, necessitating joint development or customisation agreements.

 

Cost. Advanced systems like Voronezh come with substantial acquisition and maintenance expenses.

 

Potential Diplomatic Issues. Such a deal might affect India’s relationships with the U.S. and other Western allies due to the sensitive nature of military technologies.

 

Acquiring the Voronezh radar system would represent a strategic leap for India’s defence infrastructure, reinforcing its position as a significant regional power and improving its preparedness against modern threats.

 

Conclusion. India desperately needed a ballistic missile launch early warning and counter stealth capability. Given the strategic importance of early-warning and tracking systems in modern warfare, a system like Voronezh could be a game-changer for India’s defence strategy. The deal will strengthen India’s security and bolster the nation’s defence manufacturing sector, creating new opportunities for economic growth and industrial development. The acquisition will position India alongside a select group of countries capable of monitoring missile launches and aerial activities over vast distances.

 

Your valuable comments are most welcome.

 

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551: SYRIAN CRISIS: GEOPOLITICAL UNCERTAINTIES

 

Syria - Global Centre for the Responsibility to Protect

 

My Article published on the EurasianTimes Website on 08 Dec 24.

 

The Syrian crisis has escalated significantly, with opposition forces making substantial territorial gains. Syrian rebels have declared that Damascus is “free,” claiming Bashar al-Assad has fled the capital. The rebels earlier claimed to have entered the capital and taken control of the notorious Saydnaya Military Prison north of Damascus.  Reportedly, scenes of chaos are unfolding everywhere in Damascus as Syrian rebel forces continue their lightning advance into the capital city.

 

Syrian Prime Minister Mohammad Ghazi al-Jalali has said, “We are ready to cooperate with any leadership the people choose, offering all possible support to ensure a smooth and systematic transition of government functions and preserve state facilities.” The militant leader of Hayat Tahrir Al-Sham (HTS), the leading group driving the country’s armed opposition, released a statement calling on rebel forces to leave state institutions unharmed.

 

The Syrian conflict is experiencing a significant shift. This resurgence follows years of relative stalemate since the 2020 Idlib ceasefire. These developments have potential geopolitical ramifications, including challenges for Assad’s allies like Russia and Iran.

 

Syria’s Rebel Groups. The Syrian opposition consists of a diverse array of rebel groups and factions. These groups have varying degrees of influence and control across Syria. They are often linked to regional sponsors such as Turkey, the U.S., and the Gulf States. Syria’s rebel coalition consists of Islamist and moderate factions who, despite their differences, are united in fighting the Assad regime. The fragmentation among these groups complicates negotiations and challenges international peace efforts.

 

    • Hayat Tahrir Al Sham (HTS). The most prominent and formidable group is HTS, also known as the Organisation for the Liberation of the Levant. HTS was founded by Abu Mohammad al-Jolani, a military commander who gained experience as a young fighter for al Qaeda against the United States in Iraq. He created Jabhat al-Nusra, al Qaeda’s Syrian affiliate, and operated the group until a public split with in 2016 over ideological differences and opposition to ISIS. Jolani formed HTS in 2017. Despite Jolani’s effort to distance HTS from al Qaeda and ISIS, the US and other Western countries designated it a terrorist organisation in 2018 and placed a $10 million bounty on him.

 

    • The Syrian National Army (SNA). The Syrian National Army (SNA) is a coalition of various Syrian rebel factions, predominantly supported by Turkey, established in 2017. It was formed to consolidate opposition forces and strengthen their position against the Assad regime and Kurdish forces in Syria. The SNA has been active in northern Syria, especially in regions like Afrin and Azaz, and is involved in conflict zones such as Idlib. The group’s formation reflects Turkey’s influence in Syrian affairs and its aim to curb the Kurdish YPG’s influence.

 

    • Syrian Democratic Forces. The Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) is a multi-ethnic alliance of Kurdish, Arab, and other minority groups fighting against ISIS and other jihadist factions in Syria. It was established in 2015 with the support of the U.S. to provide stability in the region and counter ISIS’s control over significant parts of north-eastern Syria. The SDF has played a crucial role in the fight against ISIS.

 

    • Free Syrian Army (FSA). The Free Syrian Army (FSA) is a loose coalition of rebel groups that emerged during the early stages of the Syrian civil war in 2011. It initially sought to overthrow the Assad regime but has since evolved into a broad-based opposition force with various factions, ranging from moderate to Islamist groups. The FSA is backed by Turkey, the U.S., and several Gulf states and has played a significant role in the conflict, particularly in the northern and southern regions of Syria. Its influence has fluctuated due to internal divisions and competition from other groups like Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS).

 

    • Druze. In Syria’s south, fighters from the country’s Druze religious minority have also joined the fight. Druze are fighting in the southern city of as-Suwayda, which neighbours the Daraa province, where opposition forces claim to have taken control of Daraa city.

 

Geopolitical Consequences

 

Internal Power Struggle. Assad’s core territory is now fragmented. Losing Aleppo and Hama removes critical industrial and economic hubs. With the fall of Damascus, dwindling resources, and troop morale collapsing, Assad’s ability to mount counteroffensives is limited. This creates a vacuum, increasing the likelihood of factional infighting within his loyalist base or between foreign backers like Russia and Iran.

 

Regional Implications. Turkey gains in influence as its backed forces expand control. This supports Ankara’s goal of creating a buffer zone along its border to prevent Kurdish dominance. However, Turkey risks overextending itself as it juggles domestic instability and its role in NATO. Assad’s setbacks reduce Iran’s access to key routes for its “Shia Crescent” strategy, complicating support to Hezbollah in Lebanon. Iran might escalate direct military involvement, which could further drain its economy. Moscow’s efforts to maintain its naval base in Tartus and airbase in Latakia are under threat. Increased instability could undermine Russia’s ability to project power in the region, exposing it to higher costs and reduced influence. With Assad and Iran weakened, Israel may exploit the opportunity to target Hezbollah and Iranian forces in Syria, potentially leading to broader regional skirmishes.

 

Humanitarian Crisis. The opposition’s rapid advance has displaced hundreds of thousands, with more expected to flee as conflict zones expand. The UN and NGOs are struggling to provide aid, with many areas inaccessible. Neighbouring countries like Turkey and Jordan, already hosting millions of refugees, face additional strain, risking social and political unrest. In Europe, renewed refugee flows could exacerbate political divides over immigration, impacting EU cohesion and policy-making.

 

International Dynamics. The U.S. might aim to position the opposition for a post-conflict settlement, countering Russian and Iranian influence. However, this risks deepening U.S.-Russia tensions. The conflict’s escalation might draw in Saudi Arabia and Gulf allies on the side of opposition forces, intensifying competition with Iran. Meanwhile, though less directly involved, China may push for diplomatic solutions to protect its regional Belt and Road interests. The crisis could dominate discussions at the UN, with calls for new peace talks. However, divisions among global powers might stymie meaningful resolutions.

 

India and the Syrian Crisis: Challenges and Opportunities

 

Geopolitical Neutrality: Balancing Relationships.  India should push for negotiations and political solutions through international bodies, supporting initiatives for a ceasefire and political settlement while avoiding direct involvement in military action. India needs to maintain a nuanced diplomatic approach with significant powers involved in Syria—particularly the U.S., Russia, and Iran. It should avoid becoming overly dependent on any nation’s stance to protect its strategic interests.  Active participation in forums like the UN and BRICS can provide a platform for influencing discussions on Syria without directly taking sides.

 

Energy Security. To protect against potential supply disruptions from the Middle East, India must maintain and expand its strategic oil reserves, such as the Strategic Petroleum Reserves. Establishing relationships with non-Middle Eastern suppliers (e.g., Russia, Africa) can also provide alternatives. Strengthening ties with key oil-producing nations in the Gulf (e.g., Saudi Arabia, UAE) is vital. This can include trade agreements and economic partnerships to ensure stability in energy supply routes.

 

Humanitarian Aid. India could use humanitarian aid to bolster its image as a responsible global player and reinforce its commitment to international peace and security.  It could expand financial and material support to affected populations in Syria through UN channels and bilateral assistance programs. This can include funding for healthcare, food, shelter, and education for displaced people. Collaboration with international partners to invest in rebuilding infrastructure, health, and education systems in conflict-affected areas can provide stability and foster goodwill.

 

The Syrian crisis has brought significant geopolitical uncertainties to the forefront, with wide-reaching implications for global powers and regional stability. As the conflict evolves, it poses complex challenges. The outcome of the Syrian conflict will shape the region’s future and impact India’s strategic positioning in a rapidly changing global landscape. Balancing these risks while maintaining neutrality will be key for India as it seeks to safeguard its national interests.

 

Your valuable comments are most welcome.

 

Link to the article on the website:

https://www.eurasiantimes.com/bashar-al-assad-iranian-embassy-stormed-in-damascus-syrian-state-tv-declares-fall-of-assad-regime/

 

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