797: HYPERSONIC WEAPONS AND MISSILE DEFENCE 2.0: NEW STRATEGIC CALCULUS

Paper published in the April 2026 edition of “The News Analytics” Journal

Hypersonic weapons are weapons capable of sustained flight at Mach 5 or higher. Existing missile defence systems do not cater for this new threat. Their speed and manoeuvrability demand a new approach to early warning and subsequent neutralisation. These weapons are emerging as highly valued systems for militaries worldwide. Their rapid development marks a turning point in military technology and strategic thought. These weapons are giving a new meaning to deterrence and stability.

Hypersonic Weapons. Intercontinental Ballistic Missiles (ICBMs) can also reach hypersonic speeds. However, they travel through space in a predictable parabolic arc. Their trajectory becomes predictable, and long-range radars can track them. On the other hand, the characteristics of hypersonic weapons include sustained high speed, increased manoeuvrability, and a high-altitude trajectory (in the upper atmosphere – higher than cruise missiles but lower than the apogee of ballistic missiles). These attributes of hypersonic weapons are blurring the line between ballistic and cruise missiles. Hypersonic weapons are classified into two categories: hypersonic glide vehicles (HGVs) and hypersonic cruise missiles (HCMs). HGVs are carried and launched from ballistic missiles. Post-separation, they glide through the upper atmosphere at extreme speeds following a controllable trajectory. HCMs sustain hypersonic flight within the atmosphere using advanced scramjet engines. Hypersonic weapons can alter their trajectory. This adds to the complexity of detecting, tracking, and intercepting them. High speed also compresses decision-making time. It shortens the window for assessing the threat and making a decision on counteraction.

Speed and Manoeuvrability: A Strategic Game-Changer. Hypersonic missiles are commonly depicted as a “game changer and the unprecedented capabilities of these weapons portend a revolution in missile warfare. It is considered that the speed, accuracy, and manoeuvrability of hypersonic boost-glide weapons will fundamentally change the character of warfare. Developments in hypersonic propulsion will revolutionise warfare by enabling faster strikes. With unmatched speed, these weapons will likely hit over-the-horizon targets in a fraction of the time. This claimed speed advantage is ostensibly accompanied by near-immunity to detection, rendering hypersonic weapons “nearly invisible” to existing early warning systems. Together, these capabilities will significantly compress decision and response times.

Missile Defence 2.0: Adapting to the Hypersonic Age

Missile Defence in the Pre-Hypersonic Era. Existing defences are primarily designed to counter ballistic missiles. They rely on layered architectures that include early-warning launch detection, long-range radar-based trajectory tracking, and interception. The destruction could occur during the boost, midcourse, or terminal phases. These systems operate on the logic of predictability. However, these systems are not optimised for low-flying targets that manoeuvre frequently and have little warning time.

Hypersonic Threat Mitigation. A comprehensive missile defence strategy is required to provide an integrated and practical capability to counter ballistic, cruise, and hypersonic missile threats. The speed of hypersonic weapons leaves little time to compute a fire-control solution, communicate with command authorities, and complete an engagement to intercept them actively. Anti-Hypersonic defence would require a combination of disruptive data links and sensors, space-based tracking sensors, and innovative interception methods. Some passive defensive measures against traditional missiles are also effective against hypersonic weapons; these include deception, dispersal, hardening, concealment, etc.

Missile Defence 2.0. To counter hypersonic threats, defence developers are exploring what might be called Missile Defence 2.0. This concept emphasises integration, speed, and adaptability. One key area is sensor networks. Future defences rely on constellations of space-based infrared and tracking satellites that can track hypersonic weapons throughout their flight. Methods of interception also need to evolve. Instead of relying solely on kinetic weapons, multiple new interceptors may be required to neutralise the threat. Artificial intelligence would be essential for data fusion from multiple sensors. Another element of Missile Defence 2.0 is layered resilience rather than perfect protection, recognising that no defence will be impenetrable.

Hypersonic Race

The United States, China, and Russia are competing to develop these weapons. They would be fielding a wide array of hypersonic systems in the coming decades. The development of short-, medium-, and long-range variants of these weapons by major powers is resulting in an arms race. These technologies are changing the nature of warfare, and they have the potential to destabilise the global security environment.

USA. The U.S. has pursued both hypersonic weapons technologies since the early 2000s. It has sought to develop longer-range systems capable of reaching deep into an adversary’s territory to attack defended, hardened, and time-urgent targets. The Department of Defence (DOD) is developing hypersonic weapons under the Navy’s Conventional Prompt Strike program and through several Air Force, Army, and DARPA programs.

Russia. Russia is reportedly the first nation to deploy a hypersonic missile. It characterises these weapons as a centrepiece of its security strategy and has extensively tested at least three distinct hypersonic systems. Russia’s HGV, known as Avangard, is equipped with a nuclear warhead and deployed on SS-19 long-range land-based ballistic missiles. Avangards reportedly feature onboard countermeasures and can manoeuvre in flight to evade ballistic missile defences. Russia has successfully fielded the Zircon and Kinzhal hypersonic weapons, and it has launched the air-launched Kinzhal hypersonic missiles (with a speed of Mach 10 and a payload of 480kg) against Ukraine.

China. China has made a significant effort to match Russian and U.S. capabilities. It has invested heavily in the hypersonic research, development, test, and evaluation programs in the past decade. China is also investing heavily in hypersonic development infrastructure and weapon systems, reportedly outpacing the United States in testing these technologies. China has developed an HGV known as the DF-ZF, previously referred to as the WU-14. China is also developing the DF-41 long-range intercontinental ballistic missile, which could carry a nuclear hypersonic glide vehicle.

India. India has been investing in hypersonic weapon development. In Sep 2020, India successfully tested the Hypersonic Technology Demonstrator Vehicle (HSTDV). HSTDV is a hypersonic unmanned scramjet demonstration aircraft. In addition to the HSTDV program, India is continuing its research and development efforts across various aspects of hypersonic technology (propulsion systems, materials science, and guidance systems). In July 2025, India reportedly conducted a successful test of a hypersonic cruise missile capable of reaching Mach 8 under Project Vishnu. Reportedly, the project aims to develop the Extended Trajectory-Long Duration Hypersonic Cruise Missile (ET-LDHCM), a weapon system that will fundamentally enhance India’s strategic capabilities.

Great Power Competition and Technological Asymmetry. The development of hypersonic weapons has the potential to create a new form of asymmetry. In technologically advanced states, having these weapons gives them an edge in overcoming opponents’ defences. On the other hand, smaller or less tech-savvy states find it difficult to keep up. This creates a growing divide between the “haves” and the “have-nots.” This asymmetry is reshaping the strategic calculus. Major powers may become aggressive, while weaker states may double down on asymmetric strategies such as cyber operations or unconventional warfare.

Implications for Deterrence Stability. The most concerning aspect of hypersonics is their impact on deterrence stability. During the Cold War, stability was based on the philosophy of “Mutually Assured Destruction”. However, now with reduced reaction time, the risk of miscalculation has increased dramatically. The shift is taking place from ‘Launch on Warning’ to ‘Launch on Uncertainty’. States may get tempted to launch their own weapons at the first sign of a perceived threat. This “crisis instability” is compounded by Strategic Ambiguity: most hypersonic vehicles can carry either a conventional or nuclear payload, leaving an adversary to guess the stakes of an incoming strike.

Conclusion

Technology is a good gadget, but a destructive weapon. Hypersonic weapons signify a significant advancement in military technology. These weapons are even more powerful than traditional ballistic ones because of their incredible speed and agility. Many countries are actively working on developing and testing them. At the same time, Missile Defence 2.0 is evolving to counter this new threat. It includes advanced sensors, smarter interceptors, and a robust architecture to provide better protection. The proliferation of hypersonic weapons could have significant implications for the global security landscape. Their speed and manoeuvrability could reduce decision-making time in crises, increasing the risk of miscalculation. The development of hypersonic weapons is also starting a new arms race, as countries seek to maintain or gain military superiority in this field.

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References:-

“Hypersonic missiles: What are they and can they be stopped?”, Partyard Defence, May 10, 2019. https://partyardmilitary.com/hypersonic-missiles-what-are-they-and-can-they-be-stopped/

“Hypersonic Technology”, Drishti IAS, 10 Oct 21. https://www.drishtiias.com/daily-updates/daily-news-analysis/hypersonic-technology-2

“Russia, China, the U.S.: Who Will Win the Hypersonic Arms”, IEEE Spectrum, Dec 2020. https://spectrum.ieee.org/russia-china-the-us-who-will-win-the-hypersonic-arms-race

Air Marshal Anil Khosla, “Hypersonic Long Range Weapons”, Air Marshals’ Perspective, 10 Nov 2021. https://55nda.com/blogs/anil-khosla/2021/11/10/hypersonic-long-range-weapons/

Air Marshal Anil Khosla, “Countering Hypersonic Weapon Threat: A Difficult But Manageable Problem”, Air Marshals’ Perspective, 07 Jun 2024. https://55nda.com/blogs/anil-khosla/2024/06/07/countering-hypersonic-weapon-threat-a-difficult-but-manageable-problem/

Tom Karako and Masao Dahlgren, “Complex Air Defence Countering the Hypersonic Missile Threat”, A Report of the Centre for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) Missile Defence Project, February 2022.

Rylie White, “An Emerging Threat: The Impact of Hypersonic Weapons on National Security, Crisis Instability, and Deterrence Strategy”, Potomac Institute for Policy Studies.

David Roza, “Why Hypersonic Missiles’ Greatest Strength Also Makes Them Vulnerable”, Air and Space Forces Magazine, Dec 2023.

Col Mandeep Singh, “Countering Hypersonics”, Indian Defence Review, Jan 2024.

Economic Times. (2025, July 16). Why India’s new hypersonic missile may outrun Israel’s Iron Dome and Russia’s S-500 and shift the balance in Asia.

Aroor, Shiv. “India’s Hypersonic Missile Ambitions: DRDO’s Project Vishnu and the Road Ahead.” India Today.

March 25, 2026

795: SPECTRA: THE INVISIBLE SHIELD OF THE DASSAULT RAFALE

Survivability in a modern aerial combat environment depends on mastery of the electromagnetic spectrum. This mastery in the Dassault Rafale is provided by a single sophisticated system called SPECTRA (Système de Protection et d’Évitement des Conduites de Tir du Rafale). It is a state-of-the-art, fully integrated electronic warfare suite developed jointly by Thales Group and MBDA.

Unlike external EW pods that compromise aerodynamics and radar cross-section, SPECTRA is embedded directly within the Rafale’s airframe. Sensors are distributed across the fuselage, wing roots, wingtips, and tail sections. This creates an all-aspect awareness bubble with no blind spots. This “smart skin” philosophy means the system is not an add-on but is a core nervous system. It is networked directly with the aircraft’s RBE2 AESA radar, OSF infrared search-and-track system, and mission computer to produce a single, fused tactical picture for the pilot.

360-Degree, Multi-Spectral Coverage. SPECTRA’s defining capability is its ability to detect, classify, and respond to threats across the full electromagnetic spectrum simultaneously. It monitors radar emissions from enemy SAM batteries and airborne fire-control radars, detects the heat signatures of infrared-homing missiles, and identifies laser rangefinders and target designators — all in real time, from any direction. This matters immensely in modern contested airspace where multiple weapons create an overlapping defensive envelope. A system that addresses only one spectral dimension leaves the aircraft exposed to the others. SPECTRA addresses all three simultaneously, with sensors capable of detecting threats at ranges that provide the pilot with a meaningful reaction time.

The Architecture: Key Components. The system’s effectiveness flows from four tightly integrated subsystems working in concert:

- The DDM NG (Détecteur de Départ Missile Nouvelle Génération) is MBDA’s next-generation missile approach warning system. It uses advanced infrared and ultraviolet sensors with wide-angle coverage to detect missile launches at long range — including from low-observable platforms — with sub-degree angular resolution. Critically, it can detect non-radiating passive threats that older UV-based systems miss.

- The Radar Warning Receiver (RWR) passively scans for hostile radar emissions. It identifies and geolocates emitters using techniques such as interferometry and time-difference-of-arrival. It compares signals against an extensive, field-reprogrammable threat library capable of distinguishing an S-400 battery from an airborne AESA fire-control radar, and assigning threat priority accordingly.

- The Laser Warning System (LWS) detects when laser rangefinders or weapon designators are illuminating the Rafale, providing precise bearing data to cue the appropriate countermeasure.

- The Phased Array Jammer (JAM NG) is the most potent and secretive element. Using active electronically scanned array technology, it directs precisely shaped jamming energy toward specific emitters — applying noise jamming, false target generation, or range deception — without broadcasting the aircraft’s position. This targeted approach is far more effective and far harder to counter than legacy brute-force jammers.

Data Fusion. SPECTRA is not just an assembly of sensors. Its strength lies in its data fusion capability. A central management unit continuously merges raw signals received from multiple sensors (RWR, DDM NG, and LWS). The CMU assesses threat lethality, trajectory and urgency. It then presents the crew with a prioritised, actionable threat picture. In practice, this means that if the RWR detects a fire-control radar and the DDM NG simultaneously observes a launch from the same bearing, the system doesn’t merely alert the pilot — it identifies the optimal countermeasure (chaff for radar-guided threats, flares for infrared seekers, or active jamming), and can execute it automatically within milliseconds. Pilots retain full manual override, but the cognitive burden during high-G combat manoeuvring is dramatically reduced. Equally significant is SPECTRA’s offensive contribution: by passively geolocating enemy radars without emitting, it allows the Rafale to prosecute SEAD missions or precision strikes without activating its own radar — preserving the aircraft’s electromagnetic silence and complicating the adversary’s situational picture.

Constant Evolution. SPECTRA has demonstrated the Rafale’s ability to penetrate contested airspace without dedicated SEAD escorts. SPECTRA is designed for longevity. Its modular architecture permits continuous software and hardware updates. Its threat libraries can be refreshed easily to address new radar types, advanced IR seekers, and low-probability-of-intercept systems. The new standards introduced in the system have improved its jamming performance and AI-assisted threat recognition. The future enhancements include capabilities to counter stealth-detecting low-frequency radars and future hypersonic threats.

For air forces like India’s, operating in environments bracketed by advanced Chinese and Pakistani integrated air defence systems, it is not merely a defensive feature. It is a strategic enabler.

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March 24, 2026

794: INDIA’S DIGITAL PUBLIC INFRASTRUCTURE: A BLUEPRINT FOR A GLOBAL SOLUTION FOR THE WORLD

India’s Digital Public Infrastructure (DPI) stack—comprising UPI, Aadhaar, ONDC, and DigiLocker—has emerged as one of the most sophisticated and scalable public digital ecosystems in the world. Built on principles of openness, interoperability, and inclusion, this stack has not only transformed governance and economic participation within India but also positioned the country as a global leader in digital innovation for the public good. The next logical step is for India to actively export and multilateralise this model through initiatives such as DPI4All, enabling other nations to adopt and adapt these systems for their own development.

Pillars of the Layered Architecture. At its core, India’s DPI rests on three interconnected pillars: identity, payments, and consent-based data exchange, with additional layers for commerce and documents.

- Aadhaar. Aadhaar, launched in 2009, serves as the foundational identity layer. It has issued over 1.44 billion unique biometric-linked 12-digit numbers, covering virtually the entire population, including remote rural areas. This system enables instant, paperless verification through e-KYC. Aadhaar powers direct benefit transfers (DBT), eliminating ghost beneficiaries and saving the exchequer billions. Monthly authentications exceed 200 crore, integrating seamlessly with banking, taxation, pensions, and more. Unlike fragmented systems elsewhere, Aadhaar’s open APIs foster innovation while maintaining privacy safeguards.

- UPI. Building on this identity foundation, the Unified Payments Interface (UPI), operational since 2016 and managed by the National Payments Corporation of India (NPCI), has revolutionised payments. UPI enables instant, interoperable, low- or zero-cost transfers via mobile apps, linking multiple bank accounts through a single virtual address. In January 2026 alone, it processed a record 21.70 billion transactions worth over ₹28.33 lakh crore—averaging nearly 700 million daily. UPI accounts for about 81% of India’s retail digital payments by volume and nearly 49% of global real-time payment transactions, surpassing systems like Visa in scale. Its open architecture allows banks, fintechs, and merchants (over 65 million) to participate equally, driving financial inclusion: India’s banked adult population surged from 35% in 2011 to over 80%. Features like QR code payments, auto-pay, and UPI Lite expand access to micro-transactions as small as ₹10, benefiting street vendors and rural users alike. The IMF has hailed UPI as the world’s largest retail fast payment system.

- Digi Locker. Digi Locker complements these by providing a secure, government-backed digital vault for documents. As of early 2026, it boasts over 67.63 crore users and has issued more than 950 crore authenticated documents, including certificates, licenses, and insurance papers. Citizens can access verified records anytime on mobile devices, reducing paperwork, fraud, and administrative delays. Integrated with eSign for electronic signatures, DigiLocker streamlines services in education, employment, and governance, making it a cornerstone of paperless administration.

- Open Network for Digital Commerce. ONDC extends the stack into e-commerce, creating an open, interoperable platform that democratises online trade. Unlike closed marketplaces dominated by a few giants, ONDC allows buyers and sellers to connect across apps and networks, levelling the field for small retailers and kirana stores. By late 2025–early 2026, it operated in over 630 cities with hundreds of thousands of sellers, facilitating discovery, ordering, and fulfilment. ONDC reduces dependence on proprietary platforms, lowers costs, and promotes competition, potentially adding significant value to India’s digital economy, which is projected to contribute 20% to GVA by 2029–30. Together with the Data Empowerment and Protection Architecture (DEPA) for consent-based data sharing (via Account Aggregators), these components form a cohesive ecosystem where identity verifies users, payments settle transactions, documents provide proof, and commerce flows freely—all while prioritising user consent and privacy.

Benefits. The sophistication of India’s DPI lies in its design philosophy. What makes this ecosystem particularly powerful is its public-good orientation. Unlike proprietary systems dominated by private corporations, India’s DPI is designed as an open infrastructure upon which both public and private players can innovate. This has led to an explosion of fintech startups, increased financial inclusion, and improved efficiency in welfare delivery. For instance, direct benefit transfers linked with Aadhaar have reduced leakages and ensured subsidies reach intended beneficiaries. UPI has brought millions into the formal financial system, including those previously excluded from traditional banking.

Global Applicability. The global digital landscape is currently bifurcated. On one side is the US model, driven by private monopolies where data is the currency and profit is the sole motive. On the other hand, there is the closed-loop model, where digital tools are used primarily for state surveillance. India offers a “Third Way.” The DPI model is built on publicly owned rails but encourages private-sector competition. It prioritises Inclusion (reaching the unbanked and the disconnected), sovereignty (allowing nations to maintain control over their digital destiny without being beholden to foreign tech giants), and frugality (India’s stack is remarkably cost-effective compared to legacy Western systems). Globally, the significance of India’s DPI model lies in its replicability. Many developing countries face similar challenges: lack of formal identification, inefficient payment systems, and limited access to digital services. By offering a tested and scalable framework, India can help these nations leapfrog traditional development barriers. Already, countries in Africa, Southeast Asia, and Latin America have shown interest in adopting components of India’s DPI stack. UPI is already live in over eight countries, including the UAE, Singapore, Bhutan, Nepal, Sri Lanka, France, Mauritius, and Qatar, enabling cross-border instant payments. India has signed MoUs or agreements on DPI cooperation with 23 countries, including six in Africa, sharing expertise in identity systems, payments, and data frameworks.

DPI4ALL Concept. This is where the concept of DPI4All becomes crucial. Rather than exporting technology in a transactional or bilateral manner, DPI4All envisions a multilateral framework where countries collaborate, share best practices, and co-develop digital public goods. Such an initiative could function under global institutions or as a coalition of willing nations, with India playing a central role as both a provider and a partner.

Advantages. Multilateralising DPI aligns with India’s vision of “Vasudhaiva Kutumbakam” (the world is one family) and its leadership in the Global South. Exporting DPI is not about selling software; it is about exporting a governance philosophy. By multilateralising this model, India can lead a global coalition that establishes standards for digital public goods. This approach offers several strategic advantages:

- Soft Power and Diplomacy. By helping a nation build its digital identity or payment system, India builds a generational partnership. Unlike traditional infrastructure projects (roads or ports) that may lead to “debt traps,” digital infrastructure empowers the local economy to grow independently.

- Economic Interoperability. If multiple countries adopt UPI-like standards, cross-border remittances—which are currently slow and expensive—could become instantaneous and nearly free. This would revolutionise global trade for small and medium enterprises.

- A New Multilateralism. Through DPI4All, India can lead a “Digital Global South” bloc, ensuring that the rules of the future internet are not written solely in Silicon Valley or Brussels, but are inclusive of the needs of the developing world.

Challenges. However, exporting DPI is not without challenges. Each country has unique socio-political contexts, regulatory environments, and technological capacities. A one-size-fits-all approach would not work. India must therefore adopt a flexible, modular strategy that allows countries to pick and customise components according to their needs. Capacity building, technical assistance, and policy support will be critical in this process. Another key consideration is data governance. As digital systems expand, concerns around privacy, surveillance, and data misuse become more pronounced. India must ensure that robust safeguards, including clear consent mechanisms, data minimisation principles, and independent oversight, accompany its DPI exports. This will be essential to build trust both domestically and internationally. Financing is also an important aspect. Many developing countries may lack the resources to build and maintain such infrastructure. India, in partnership with multilateral development banks and global institutions, could help create funding mechanisms—such as grants, concessional loans, or public-private partnerships—to support DPI adoption.

Strategic Outlook. Strategically, exporting DPI aligns with India’s broader geopolitical ambitions. It enhances India’s soft power, strengthens South-South cooperation, and positions the country as a leader in shaping global digital norms. In a world increasingly dominated by competing digital ecosystems—primarily from the US and China—India’s model offers a third path that balances innovation with public interest. Moreover, DPI4All could serve as a platform for addressing global challenges such as financial inclusion, digital inequality, and efficient public service delivery. By enabling countries to build resilient and inclusive digital systems, it contributes directly to the Sustainable Development Goals.

In conclusion, India has achieved in nine years what took the developed world nearly five decades to do. India’s Digital Public Infrastructure is not just a domestic success story but a global public good in the making. By actively exporting and multilateralising this model through DPI4All, India has the opportunity to redefine digital development paradigms worldwide. The focus must remain on openness, inclusivity, and adaptability, ensuring that the benefits of digital transformation are accessible to all nations, not just a privileged few.

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