415: Q & A SERIES: INDIA’S FOREIGN POLICY, DEFENCE DIPLOMACY AND MILITARY POWER

 

Q-1   Has Indian foreign policy become more assertive about India’s interests? 

A-1

  • The trend for foreign policy is changing worldwide.
  • Multilateralism is changing to mini-lateralism.
  • The engagements between countries have become interest and issue-based.
  • India’s policy has changed from a policy of non-alignment to a policy of equidistance.
  • The engagements are governed by own interests, needs, and gains.
  • The world is accepting Indian stand on various issues.
  • Indian assertion level is appropriate, generally in take it or leave it mode without thrusting it upon others.

 

Q-2   Comments about India’s focus on Asian region and neighborhood.

A-2

  • Focus on Asia and the neighborhood has come a bit late with China having made inroads into our neighborhood adopting the string of pearls policy.
  • We need to be magnanimous in our approach towards our neighbours to retain them with us.
  • Like any other country, our global engagements are based on our interests first and then on ideology and principles.

 

Q-3.  Comments on India’s moral-based foreign policy, with a principled approach, and not using its military power for foreign policy objectives.

A-3

  • In agreement with the statement that “India foundationally remains a pacifist state, following moral based foreign policy, the strength of soft power and principled approach”.
  • It is not necessary to use force and military might to attain one’s foreign policy objectives.
  • Hard power can be used as a soft power as well using Military Diplomacy to achieve one’s objectives.
  • Foreign policy and military diplomacy need to work cohesively.
  • Notwithstanding the above, India has in the past used its hard power to attain its foreign policy objectives. Examples include Bangladesh liberation, Sri Lanka and Maldives operations.

 

Q-4.  India needs to spend more on its conventional military forces, building military capabilities and deterrence, due to its regional and global aspirations.

A-4

  • At the moment India’s necessity to invest in building conventional military power is governed more by its threat perception and need to guard its interests.
  • Regional and or global aspirations come next.
  • Military capability and deterrence are essential to be considered as a major regional power.
  • Military power alone is not sufficient, it has to be backed by economic clout and strength.

 

Q-5   In an age of comprehensive security, is military power by itself adequate?

A-5

  • While it is true that, military power is a significant ingredient of power projection it greatly impacts international dynamics and relations between nations.
  • It alone cannot achieve national objectives. It has to be backed by economic clout and a balanced all-round deterrence capability.
  • Earlier the debate used to be between money being spent on development or military capability.
  • Military power is essential even for unhindered growth.
  • The nature of warfare is changing. Firstly, hostile actions do take place even in no-war scenarios and secondly, the hostilities are not limited to the military alone.
  • New dimensions of warfare have emerged that affect the entire nation and demand a whole of national response.
  • The question of choice is not as simple as “either one or the other”. A balanced approach is required for multi-dimensional holistic capability enhancement.
  • Balance has to be maintained between:-
    • Military power and other tools of statecraft.
    • Conventional military power and other dimensions of warfare.
    • Military capability and capacity to wage war.
    • Quality and quantity of platform, weapons, and war-waging wherewithal.
  • Military capability and adequate deterrence are required first and foremost for safeguarding own interests, thereafter comes regional/global responsibilities and aspirations.

 

Q-6   India with its present stage of development, can ill afford to suffer a military setback, due to loss of deterrence as a result of inadequate defence funding.

 A-6

  • In agreement with the statement.
  • The minimum credible deterrence value of the military needs to be maintained at all times.
  • The minimum deterrence value depends upon, the number of enemies, their military capabilities, and their attitude.
  • In India’s case, the enemy’s capabilities are racing ahead creating a wide gap and the attitude has become more belligerent and aggressive.

 

Q-7. What does a ‘credible military capability’ entail?

A-7

Credible military capability to my mind would entail the following in sequence:-

  • Adequate deterrence.
  • The ability for strategic coercion.
  • Punitive capability.
  • Ability to wage war if required,
  • Adequate war endurance.
  • Ability to provide human assistance and disaster relief (HADR) domestically as well as externally.
  • Capability to exploit Defence Diplomacy.

Collective security is valid not only during the war but also to deal with grey zone operations during the time of peace.

 

Q-8.   What capabilities are required for military hard power to become an effective means of state-craft?

A-8

The military alone cannot achieve the national objectives. Besides aspects mentioned earlier areas which need attention are:-

  • Ability to meet challenges in the nonconventional and new domains of warfare including Nuclear, Biological, Space, Cyber, Electronic, and Information.
  • Any reorganization should be to cater for future challenges in these domains.
  • A robust defence industry and production eco-system are essential.
  • Intangible factors like morale and training are very important along with doctrine, strategy, and tactics.
  • Reach, precision, standoff, and a robust supply chain are equally important.

 

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407: WAR ENDURANCE

 

War endurance refers to the ability of a nation, military, or individuals to withstand and persist through the challenges, hardships, and demands of war over an extended period. War endurance is a critical factor in determining the outcome of conflicts. Historically, nations and entities with higher levels of endurance have often prevailed in prolonged conflicts, demonstrating the importance of preparation, resilience, and adaptability in times of war. War endurance is influenced by a complex interplay of various factors including physical and psychological endurance, resource availability and logistical endurance. A successful balance and effective management of these factors are crucial for a nation or entity to endure a war and sustain its efforts over an extended period.

 

War Endurance: Military Factors. Some of the military factors that have a direct bearing on the war endurance are as follows:-

 

  • Military Strength and Capability. A well-equipped and well-trained military with adequate manpower and technological advancements significantly contributes to war endurance.

 

  • Logistical Efficiency. Efficient supply lines and logistics are critical for maintaining the military’s operations, ensuring a continuous flow of resources and support to the front lines.

 

  • Resilience and Determination: The mental resilience, determination, and psychological preparedness of both the military and civilian population to face the hardships and horrors of war are fundamental for endurance.

 

  • Adaptability and Flexibility. The ability to adapt to changing circumstances and strategies during a prolonged conflict is essential for maintaining a sustainable effort.

 

  • Alliance and Support. The presence of strong alliances and international support can provide a morale boost, military assistance, and economic aid, enhancing a nation’s ability to endure a war.

 

  • Geographic Terrain. The geographical landscape can influence war endurance, as difficult terrains can make military operations more challenging and impact resource accessibility.

 

  • Technological Advancements. Utilizing advanced technologies in warfare can improve military efficiency, intelligence gathering, and strategic planning, potentially enhancing war endurance.

 

Russia-Ukraine War: Aspects Related to War Endurance

 

Russia – Ukraine war is well into the second year, with no end in sight. It began as a special military operation and became a long-drawn affair. The war has brought into focus numerous issues related to the duration of wars and war endurance.

 

  • Possibly, the Russian intention was to carry out a swift military operation and make a regime change in Ukraine. It did not succeed due to the interplay of several dynamics. The intention may be for short and swift conflict, but one can’t really control it.

 

  • One of the officially stated Russian objectives was the “demilitarisation of Ukraine”. Russians attacked Ukrainian military bases and selective defence industry, considerably reducing the Ukrainian combat potential. The war-waging enablers need to be protected.

 

  • After the high intensity of the operations initially, the tempo of the war has been wavering.

 

  • The use or non-use of full military power especially airpower by Russia is intriguing to the strategic community and military analysts. The calibrated approach to preserve military assets is essential in long-duration wars.

 

  • Ukraine does not have the capability to endure such a long war. Outside support from the USA and other European states, is enabling it to sustain the conflict.

 

  • Harsh sanctions have been imposed on Russia. The sanctions do not deter aggression but their effect has to be catered for in the planning.

 

  • No contact warfare philosophy is being used by both sides. The LR vectors and drones are being used by Ukraine for retaliatory strikes and by Russians for punitive reasons. Even in the Armenia and Azerbaijan conflict the drones played a decisive role.

 

Coming Up: Air War Endurance.

 

Bottom Line

War endurance is a combination of  duration and tempo of operations.

 

 

Question

Should Indian Military prepare for a short and swift war or a long drawn conflict?

 

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406: US REPORT ON CHINA: EXCERPTS BRI

CHINA’S BELT AND ROAD INITIATIVE (BRI)

 

Key Takeaways

 

  • The PRC uses BRI to support its strategy of national rejuvenation by seeking to expand global transportation and trade linkages to support its development and deepen its economic integration with nations along its periphery and beyond.

 

  • In 2022, BRI projects saw mixed economic outcomes, experiencing both growth and decline. However, overall spending on BRI projects remained consistent with the previous year and Beijing continued to prioritize public health, digital infrastructure, and green energy.

 

  • Overseas development and security interests under BRI will drive the PRC towards expanding its overseas security relationships and presence to protect those interests.

 

Detailed explanation of aspects summarised as takeaways above

 

First announced in 2013, the PRC’s BRI initiative is the signature foreign and economic policy advanced by Xi that rebranded and further expanded China’s global outreach. Beijing uses BRI to support its strategy of national rejuvenation by seeking to expand global transportation and trade links to support its development and deepen its economic integration with nations along its periphery and beyond. The PRC implements BRI by financing, constructing, and developing transportation infrastructure, natural gas pipelines, hydropower projects, digital connectivity, and technology and industrial parks worldwide. As of 2022, at least 147 countries had signed BRI cooperation documents, up from 146 in 2021, 138 in 2020, and 125 in 2019.

 

In support of its national strategy, Beijing leverages BRI to strengthen its territorial integrity, energy security, and international influence. The PRC aims to improve stability and diminish threats, for example, by investing in projects along its western and southern periphery. Similarly, through BRI projects associated with pipelines and port construction in Pakistan, it seeks to become less reliant on transporting energy resources through strategic choke points, such as the Strait of Malacca. It also attempts to exploit the relationships it builds through BRI to pursue additional economic cooperation with participating countries.

 

Since 2022, two distinct trends have developed relative to BRI. First, the share of PRC financial investment relative to construction increased to its highest levels, with investments almost doubling. Beijing experienced strong growth in their East Asian and the Middle Eastern investments but a decline in their Sub-Saharan Africa efforts. Conversely, spiraling construction costs over the past three years have resulted in $78 billion in bad loans which needed to be written off or renegotiated in 2022. Second, Beijing began to replace previous BRI rhetoric with language highlighting cooperation and partnership, which likely is designed to make BRI more appealing to foreign partners. The official name of “Belt and Road Initiative” was removed from the English version of many of Xi’s speeches in 2022 and replaced with phrases such as “Belt and Road cooperation.” After launching the GDI in September 2021, Xi mentioned Belt and Road Cooperation eight times while referring to GDI more than 16 times.

 

China has continued to prioritize public health, digital infrastructure, and green energy opportunities through its “Health Silk Road (健康丝绸之路)” (HSR), “Digital Silk Road (数字丝绸之路)” (DSR), and “Green Silk Road (绿色丝绸之路)” (GSR), respectively. Improving each of these “roads” offers Beijing benefits beyond economic integration.

 

  • HSR is the PRC’s World Health Organization-supported initiative for providing medical assistance through BRI transportation In the future, it may help the PRC expand the international market share of PRC medical products, strengthen its bid for a role as a global public health leader, and identify the need for – and justify – new BRI projects.

 

  • GSR aims to support low-carbon infrastructure, energy, and finance projects; this initiative aligns with the PRC’s own goal of achieving carbon neutrality before 2060 and presents Beijing as a responsible party in working toward the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development Goals established by the United Nations General Assembly.

 

  • DSR is one of the primary ways Beijing seeks to facilitate transfer of PRC technology to partner countries, which the PRC leverages to propagate its own technology standards as it seeks to set global standards for next-generation technology. Announced in 2015 as a digital subset of BRI, the PRC’s Digital Silk Road initiative, seeks to build a PRC-centric digital infrastructure, export industrial overcapacity, facilitate expansion of the PRC’s technology corporations, and access large repositories of data. As of 2016, 16 countries had signed memorandums of understanding with Beijing to participate in the DSR. The PRC hopes the DSR will increase international e-commerce by reducing cross-border trade barriers and establishing regional logistics centers by promoting e-commerce through digital free trade zones. Another goal of the DSR is to reduce PRC dependence on foreign tech leaders by providing markets for Chinese goods, thereby creating production opportunities for PRC tech firms. The PRC is investing in digital infrastructure abroad, including next-generation cellular networks—such as fifth-generation (5G) networks—fiber optic cables, undersea cables, and data The initiative also includes developing advanced technologies including satellite navigation systems, artificial intelligence (AI), and quantum computing for domestic use and export. International opponents of China’s DSR fear that Beijing will encourage recipient countries to use this technology as a tool of repression modeled on China’s authoritarian-style government. Likewise, host country political elites would probably risk their sovereignty by becoming vulnerable to espionage and political blackmail.

 

Since BRI’s inception, its long-term viability has faced challenges from international concerns over corruption, debt sustainability, and environmental effects, coupled with suspicion of the PRC’s motives and the risk inherent in operating in politically unstable areas. China has applied military, intelligence, diplomatic, and economic tools to counter perceived threats, but the party- state leaders lack the expertise to assess comprehensive risks in most participating countries.

 

As the PRC’s overseas development and security interests expanded under BRI, the CCP has signaled that its overseas security footprint will increase accordingly to protect those interests, which Beijing recognizes may provoke pushback from other states. Some of BRI’s planned or active economic corridors transit regions prone to violence, separatism, armed conflict, and instability, putting BRI-related projects and PRC citizens working overseas at risk. In 2022, for example, five PRC citizens were injured when ISIS-K terrorists attacked a hotel in Kabul where Chinese nationals were known to stay.

 

China has therefore sought to extend its ability to safeguard its overseas interests, including BRI, by developing closer regional and bilateral counterterrorism cooperation and supporting host- nation security forces through military aid, including military equipment donations. In an October 2022 speech to the National Party Congress, Xi spoke of the need to become more adept at deploying the PLA to protect China’s national security interests. Xi also said, “We will better coordinate strategies and plans, align policies and systems, and share resources and production factors between the military and civilian sectors.”

 

The PRC has adopted new security legislation establishing a legal basis to violate people’s data privacy and includes the aforementioned National Intelligence and Cybersecurity Laws of the People’s Republic of China. Under the auspices of national security, the PRC and its security services have the authority to compel any private Chinese company to turn over all data collected by their systems, if desired. GSR aims to support low-carbon infrastructure, energy, and finance projects – an initiative that aligns with the PRC’s own goal of achieving carbon neutrality before 2060 and presents Beijing as a responsible party in working toward the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development Goals established by the United Nations General Assembly.

 

The PRC has applied military, intelligence, diplomatic, and economic tools to counter perceived threats, but the party-state leaders lack the expertise to assess comprehensive risks in most participating countries. As the PRC’s overseas development and security interests expand under BRI, the CCP has signaled that its overseas security footprint will expand accordingly to protect those interests, which Beijing recognizes may provoke pushback from other states. Some of BRI’s planned or active economic corridors transit regions prone to violence, separatism, armed conflict, and instability, putting BRI-related projects and PRC citizens working overseas at risk. In 2022, for example, five PRC nationals were injured when ISIS-K terrorists attacked a hotel in Kabul where Chinese nationals were known to stay.

 

COMING UP: DETAILED ANALYSIS WITH INDIAN PERSPECTIVE

 

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