Recently I wrote an article on “Airpower and Grey Zone Operations”. During the research, one question kept nagging my brain, so I asked all my colleagues and veterans, carrying out research and analysis on defence and security related subjects, individually or in association with different think tanks. Got some clarity on the issue with quite a few perspectives.
Question: What is the difference between Grey Zone (GZ) Conflicts / operations and No War No Peace (NWNP) situation?
Answer:
NWNP is an existing state (generally at the borders) – GZ is a zone in the continuum of war between peace and declared war.
NWNP is generally referred to military domain (actions or matters) – GZ is multi domain in DIME paradigm.
NWNP uses military tools as threats and weapons – GZ anything or everything can be used as a threat or weapon from multiple domains (political, economic, information, psychological, diplomatic, cyber and space etc).
NWNP includes firing by regular forces, small team actions across border and actions by non-state actors in concert with regulars etc – GZ activities are much broader and ambiguous.
NWNP is referred in the context of Indo-Pak border situations – GZ term appeared in the lexicon of defence and security analysts in global context.
NWNP was a low level term largely utilised on LOC – GZ is a wider concept that looks at the wide space between peace and war – a zone that is blurred.
NWNP situations may or may not have deniability – GZ operations generally have a high degree of deniability.
NWNP generally involves kinetic weapons and could lead to escalation – GZ generally employs hybrid warfare techniques (with kinetic weapons being one of the options but rarely used).
NWNP is a situation existing between two nations with their militaries face to face – GZ is a conflict between two nations not necessarily in eyeball situation.
NWNP is related to posturing, deterrence, coercion and use of force – GZ is achieving the objectives without military confrontation.
NWNP: the escalatory ladder can be traversed (up or down) at a rapid pace – GZ the transition is gradual and slower.
NWNP: the actions may be localised, limited in area and influence – GZ actions generally affect a large area or number of people.
Titbit
We are in NWNP situation with Pakistan
Chinese have mastered the art of Grey Zone operations
Comments and value additions are most welcome.
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