184: Flight Safety: Importance of Standard Operating Procedures (SOPs).

 

SOPs enhance flight safety by helping flight crews conform their actions to recommendations by aircraft manufacturers and by standardising operations. SOPs should include and emphasise aspects that avoid errors and deviations that are frequently associated with incidents and accidents.

Standard Operating Procedures evolve over a long period of time with much thought and experience gone into them. They need to be followed strictly in letter and spirit.

 

Purpose. Standard Operating Procedures (SOPs) serve a number of purposes such as:

  • Ensuring that aircraft is flown correctly in accordance with the manufacturer’s guidelines.
  • Promote adherence to the manufacturers operating philosophy.
  • Promote operational safety.
  • Promote operational efficiency.
  • Utilise aircraft resources and functionality appropriately.

 

Violations. Sometimes pilots do get tempted to adjust, reorder or even skip some SOPs. Reasons could be:

  • They feel that the SOP doesn’t exactly fit the situation at hand.
  • They would take more time than a widely accepted shortcut.
  • Perception of existence of a better method.

 

Ramifications. Not following SOPs in letter and spirit could create problems as follows:

  • Ad hoc operations have the risk of missing out on some critical factor.
  • Reordering SOP have the risk of forgetting something important or failing to consider any sequential priorities.
  • Crew resource management (CRM) becomes more difficult as other crew members will have to guess about our procedures and techniques.
  • First Violation (and getting away with it) may encourage subsequent repeated violations.
  • Violation by one may encourage others making it organisational culture to skip SOPs.

 

Correct Approach. Any situation that creates a doubt about an SOP in the minds of crew should be reviewed in a formal and planned manner. The steps could be as follows:

  • Analyse the existing SOP, try to understand why the SOP exists in its form.
  • If one feels that some aspect needs to be changed as a better and improved alternative solution exists – study the changes and repercussion in more detail.
  • Discussion with other more experienced crew and peer group helps in this process and is recommended.
  • The suggestion needs to be put up for change to those who have the power to change it.
  • Flight department leaders should, select a well-experienced team to spearhead the study and obtain manufacturer comments if required.
  • The change should be adequately debated and tested if required.
  • Once it is decided that the SOP is to be changed, it should be documented at all the relevant places.
  • All Crew should be made aware of the new SOP.

 

Adherence to SOPs: Some Other Factors.

Training. Training is only as good as the teaching staff or instructor. Relevant aspects are as follows:

  • Any Instructor with a deviant behaviour of cutting corners or ignoring SOPs can have a damaging influence on potential crew.
  • Lack of proper oversight by the instructors could also lead to development of deviant habits.
  • Simulators have lot of scope for getting away with deviations and short cuts. This may encourage such behaviour becoming a habit. Simulator Instructors need to be aware and vigilant about this aspect.
  • Training should not become a square filling exercise.

 

Peer Group Influence. Peer group has a strong influence (especially during training period). In a peer group a subtle desire to demonstrate skills, impress others and compete can become a recipe for increased risk. Good crew can be corrupted by a poor peer groups.

 

Organisational Pressures. Crew at times come under extreme pressure to overlook SOPs to meet organisational goals and targets. This can lead to disastrous situations.

  • Resorting to formal waivers should be an exception rather than a rule.
  • Target fixation should be avoided at all costs.
  • Mission accomplishment should not be at the cost of safety risk.
  • “Safety first” motto should not only be quoted but religiously enforced.

 

Experience and Expertise. The machine does not know the expertise level of the pilot. The title of EXPERT demands maturity and extra safety consciousness. Skill, knowledge and experience of an expert does not give a license to deviate. Superior skill and experience should be used to avoid potential dangerous situations rather than getting out of them. There is no room for over confidence or complacency in the field of aviation.

 

Always Remember

In aviation mistake can occur anytime and even by best of the aviators. There is no scope of letting one’s guard down.

 

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183: Taliban’s Runover: Some Factors

 

Setting and Population Density Pattern. 

  • Afghanistan’s overall population density is only about 148 people per square mile / 57 people per square kilometer (Indian population density is 1202 per square mile / 464 per square kilometer).

 

  • Even in the populated areas of Afghanistan, people are quite spread out, with only 26 percent of the population living in urban centres. This dispersed population pattern, is a challenge for the state army to defend while, it favours the Taliban’s quick-moving offensive.

 

Taliban Strategy.

  • Following the withdrawal of Western forces, the Taliban swiftly and easily occupied vast swaths of sparsely populated territory. They then used that territory to launch coordinated and fast-moving offensives.

 

  • Instead of traditional tools of warfare (like artillery and armour), the Taliban moved quickly in weaponised pickup trucks to defeat dug-in defensive They forced The Afghan forces to retreat from outposts and checkpoints to (safety of) urban areas, thereby ceding control of supply lines and major highways. This allowed Taliban forces to surround and isolate urban centers.

 

  • Local officials were quick to accept Taliban control because they had little allegiance to the central government and knew that Afghan forces were unwilling (and unable) to defend their areas from Taliban

 

Taliban Advantages.

  • Taliban enjoyed a presence throughout the country, allowing them to pressure the Afghan National Defense and Security Forces in multiple locations.

 

  • The Taliban were able to conduct lightning offensives across many fronts, which fatally stressed the limited cohesion of the Afghan National Defense and Security.

 

Afghan Security Force: Challenges

  • Low force-to-space ratios meant that defenders had significant ground to cover and had to move swiftly and in a coordinated fashion to stand any chance of successfully countering Taliban threats from many The Afghan security forces were not geared up to these tasks.

 

  • The Afghan military lacked the capacity and cohesion required to stand firm and defend against fast-moving offensives across many fronts.

 

  • Afghan forces had always been heavily dependent on S. air support for troop movement, re-supply, and combat operations. In absence of the air support, the Afghan military was unable to regroup or move units around quickly.

 

  • Afghan forces were hampered by lack of cohesion, leadership, motivation, and limited training & mobility.

 

Outcome.

  • The weaknesses of the Afghan security forces, combined with the low force-to-space ratios generated by Afghanistan’s terrain and its population distribution, made a quick Taliban victory a reality.

 

  • Taliban rarely had to use force because they could leverage their geographic reach to intimidate local leaders and convince defenders to flee or surrender.

 

Lessons

  • Understanding Local conditions is Important.

 

  • One solution does not work for every problem.

 

  • Psychological (Mind) factor of any armed is important.

 

  • Besides Equipment and training, motivation and leadership is equally important.

 

There is much more to it – More coming up

 

Questions

Has the western world really understood Afghanistan?

Is the fight against terrorism being orchestrated correctly?

 

Titbit

Afghanistan is called graveyard of empires.

Britishers came and failed

Russians tried and failed.

Yanks tried for long and failed.

 

Random Thoughts

Now it is Chinese turn

(Chinese are too smart to burn their hands – they will let Pakistan do Their dirty work)

Pakistan is playing with a two edged sword.

will the nurtured snake bite back

 

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References

https://warontherocks.com/

https://www.independent.co.uk/voices/afghanistan-taliban-uk-war-troops-b1902270.html

https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/united-states/2021-08-17/why-taliban-won

https://cissm.umd.edu/research-impact/publications/worst-case-scenario-assessing-impact-complete-isaf-military-withdrawal

https://www.wsj.com/articles/afghanistan-army-collapse-taliban-11628958253

https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/exclusive-taliban-advances-afghan-military-overhauls-war-strategy-limit-losses-2021-07-22/

https://www.factcheck.org/2021/08/timeline-of-u-s-withdrawal-from-afghanistan/?utm_source=email&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=social-pug

177: Technology: Future Trajectory of Artificial Intelligence

 

AI is going to change the world more than anything in the history of mankind.

– Kai-Fu Lee

 

 Artificial Intelligence (AI) has permeated into all aspects of our lives. AI tools are everywhere we look. AI is  delivering tangible benefits across every  industry one can think about.

 

  • Transportation: Although it could take a decade or more to perfect them, autonomous cars will one day ferry us from place to place.

 

  • Manufacturing: AI powered robots work alongside humans to perform a limited range of tasks like assembly and stacking, and predictive analysis sensors keep equipment running smoothly.

 

  • Healthcare: In the comparatively AI-nascent field of healthcare, diseases are more quickly and accurately diagnosed, drug discovery is sped up and streamlined, virtual nursing assistants monitor patients and big data analysis helps to create a more personalized patient experience.

 

  • Education: Textbooks are digitized with the help of AI, early-stage virtual tutors assist human instructors and facial analysis gauges the emotions of students to help determine who’s struggling or bored and better tailor the experience to their individual needs.

 

  • Media: Journalism is harnessing AI, too, and will continue to benefit from it. Bloomberg uses Cyborg technology to help make quick sense of complex financial reports. The Associated Press employs the natural language abilities of Automated Insights to produce 3,700 earning reports stories per year — nearly four times more than in the recent past.

 

  • Customer Service: Last but hardly least, Google is working on an AI assistant that can place human-like calls to make appointments at, say, your neighbourhood hair salon. In addition to words, the system understands context and nuance.

 

Future Trajectory

Most AI applications today are classified as “narrow” or “weak” AI, meaning that they usually carry out a specific task they are designed for.  

AI is only just getting started. Computers will get smarter, quicker, and increasingly become capable of tasks that traditionally are carried out by humans, such as making complex decisions or engaging in creative thought. Truly intelligent entities would not be designed for one specific task but would be able to carry out many number of tasks.

A Quantum Powered AI

 Computing power is the engine of AI.

Quantum computing, along with other next-level processing capabilities such as biological and neuromorphic computing, is likely to unlock even more possibilities.

Quantum computing is basically, ability of sub-atomic particles to exist in more than one state at the same time. It is theoretically capable of completing some calculations up to 100 trillion times faster than today’s fastest computers.

In order to continually evolve to become smarter, machine learning models will inevitably become larger.

 Additionally, more processing power means we will be able to create larger amounts of “synthetic” data for training purposes, reducing the need for collecting real data to feed into algorithms for many applications.

Other technologies like neuromorphic computing would be able to mimic the “elastic” capabilities of the human brain to adapt themselves to processing new forms of information.

Creative AI

 These days we can see art, music, poetry, and even computer code is being created by AI.

This has been made possible by the ongoing development of “generative” AI i.e. when Ai creates new data rather than simply analyzing and understanding existing data.

With generative AI, analyzing and understanding is the first step of the process. It then takes what it has learned and uses it to build further examples of the models that it has studied.

This ability to create synthetic data will lead us into an era where machines will be doing things we simply haven’t seen them do before.

Ethical and Accountable AI

 At the moment, much of the inner workings of today’s AI is not transparent due to proprietary algorithms or complexity involved.

This creates a trust deficit and reluctance to let machines make  decisions that affect people’s lives.

If AI is going to live up to its potential, then the smart machines of the near future will have to be more transparent, explainable, and accountable than the ones we’re familiar with now.

Legislative and regulatory changes are likely to be put in place in future.

 

Interesting

Intel recently unveiled its Loihi processing chip, packed with more than two billion transistors, which is one application that was able to identify ten different types of hazardous material by smell alone – more quickly and accurately than trained sniffer dogs.

 

Titbits

Adversial Model – AI vs AI

The most impressive results available today are usually obtained when this is done via an “adversarial” model – effectively, two AIs are pitted against each other, with one tasked with creating something based on existing data and the other tasked with finding flaws in the new creation. When these flaws are discovered, the creative network (known as the “generator”) learns from its mistakes and eventually becomes capable of creating data that its opponent (the “discriminator” network) finds increasingly hard to distinguish from the existing data.

 

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References

https://builtin.com/artificial-intelligence/artificial-intelligence-future

https://futureoflife.org/background/benefits-risks-of-artificial-intelligence/

https://www2.deloitte.com/us/en/pages/consulting/articles/the-future-of-ai.html

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