Tag: world order

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Q & A SERIES (Part1)

In various interactions questions are asked during the Q & A session. Starting a new series on compiling these valid and interesting questions with comments.

RECENT QUERRIES AND MY TAKE ON THEM

 

Question 1. What is the status on MMRCA 2.0?

 

Comments. MMRCA 2.0 – It refers to proposal for acquisition of 114 fighter ac by IAF. Open sources indicate that it is still at RFI state. Next step would be issue of RFP after government approval. My personal take is that instead of going through the entire procurement procedure again, we should go in for two more squadrons of  Rafale aircraft immediately. The induction would be faster and it is already in the inventory. We need to have a balance between the quantity  and the quality. It will meet the requirements till indeginous 5th gen AMCA comes up. Also phased induction is always better.

 

Question 2. Why do we still have to buy almost all of the weapons from foreign countries?

 

Comments. We are trying Leap frog method. Wherein, we procure weapons and equipment to meet immediate needs and maintain minimum level of deterrence capability while trying to make our own indigenous ones to match with the existing technology worldwide. Unfortunately the indigenous development is adversely affected by cost and time over runs besides the issue of matching quality. Hope the recent initiatives by the government to boost Atma Nirbharta succeeds and provides necessary impetus to the whole process. It is already showing some results. Latest SIPRI report indicates drop in defence import.

 

Question 3. What should be the priority for capability building between Army, Navy, Air Force, or enhancing cyber / space capabilities?

 

Comments. Each domain of warfare and each service is important. It is not a simple linear process of capability building. A balanced approach is required. War is going to be multi domain therefore, the capability building has to be uniform and the threats need to be tackled with whole of government approach. This is easier said then done. However, with CDS coming in the issue of inter-service priority would get addressed. Whereas, priority for capability development of defence forces vis-a-vis Cyber and Space domain would have to be decide following whole of government approach.

 

Question 4. Does India need Strategic bomber like the ones possessed by USA, China and Russia.

 

Comments. Strategic bomber is a good asset for power projection especially for countries with expeditionary ambitions. It is a costly asset and for India it would be low on the priority list. There is a need to boost many other capabilities on priority. Even in IAF higher priority list includes fighter ac, combat support ac (AWACS and Refuellers), drones and UAVs, smart weapons, protective infrastructure etc.

 

Question 5. Is the era of manned fighter jet over?

 

“No Machine can replicate the human gift of discovery and situational awareness”

– Air Mshl V Patney

Comments. This debate has been going on for long and recently picked up due to proliferation of drones and unmanned platforms. Both manned and unmanned platforms have advantages and disadvantages. At the moment thought process is to harness the advantages of both with the concept of manned platform leading a swarm of unmanned platforms in formation. 6th generation aerial platforms are heading this way. Various projects are under consideration and development for this loyal wingman concept. I call it Mother Goose Concept.

Questions / Queries and valuable additions are most welcome.

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FUTURE CONFLICT SCENARIO: IMPLICATIONS FOR IAF (PART 2)

Link to Part 1

In Continuation……

Implications For: IAF

  • India has to be prepared for a possible two-front war.
  • The threat spectrum spans from sub-convential conflict, conventional war to nuclear exchange.
  • Capability and preparedness is required for:-
  • Collusive challenge
  • Internal security
  • Multi front challenges
  • Hybrid wars
  • Grey zone ops
  • Diverse operational scenarios
  • Diverse operational areas
  • Preparedness would include review of doctrines, strategy and tactics, organizational structures, human resource adaption and training, and maintenance & logistics concepts to meet the operational requirements.
  • IAF will have to build deterrence and have ability to dominate the air. It will have to induct modern systems for situational awareness, intelligence and precision strike ability.
  • Technological advancements and evolving changes would have to be factored. Artificial Intelligence (AI) has great potential for application in field of air power. India must take an early lead.
  • IAF would need to think differently to be able to tackle various asymmetric and non-traditional security threats and would require more innovative, out of box solutions which would leverage the prevalent technology.
  • Self-reliance and investment in future technologies is most important.

 

Harnessing Emergent Technologies

  • Technology is impacting the nature of warfare (especially air warfare) like never before. Technology superiority needs to be a corner stone of India’s national military strategy.

 

  • IAF needs to define a defence science and technology strategy with a vision to harness technology and convert it into decisive capability.

 

  • Suggested Future technologies to be looked into are :

 

  • Quantum computing. 
  • Hypersonic weapon systems.
  • Artificial Intelligence. 
  • Robotics.
  • Nano technology. 
  • Unmanned platforms, Drones and swarm technology. 
  • Network centric environment / Internet of things / system of systems.

 

  • Most of them are dual use technologies with utility both in civil and military domain.

 

  • Suitable Ecosystem. Model and ecosystem required to bring User (defence forrces in this case), Academia, R&D (DRDO) and Industry (DPSU and Private) to work in unison.
  • Strategic focus is required in terms of a long term and medium term technology plan supported by adequate budget allocation.
  • Impetus is also required for some of the existing aviation related programmes :-

 

  • Hypersonic weapons
  • Integrated Ballistic and Cruise Missile
  • Fifth generation fighter
  • Transport aircraft (for civil and military requirements).
  • Development of gas turbines and engines.
  • AI enabled autonomous
  • Unmanned platforms and swarms.
  • Sensors and seekers for multiple
  • Metallurgy and composites.

Comments and value additions are most welcome

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FUTURE CONFLICT SCENARIOS: IMPLICATIONS FOR IAF (PART 1)

Changes in warfare and implications

  • The contours of conventional war / conflict are changing and become more ambiguous and wide
  • Long drawn out conventional wars are a thing of the past due to diminished international acceptability of capture of territory & collateral damage and also increasing economic costs.
  • Terrorism, piracy and sectarian conflicts are extending the boundaries to grey zone, hybrid, sub-conventional conflicts in the ‘no peace, no war’ realm.
  • The battle space for war fighting is expanding (into multi domains) with compression of time.
  • Future conflicts are likely to be short, swift and intense engagements against a nuclear backdrop.
  • Future security challenges will be more and more complex, multi-dimensional and non-traditional in both kinetic and non-kinetic form.
  • Success would lie on the ability to act in the shortest possible time, inside the decision cycle of the adversary demanding very high level of real time situational awareness.

 

Regional / Local Scenario

  • Geopolitically Asia is the most war risk-prone region of the world.

 

  • India’s shares 6,917 kilometres of live borders with two nuclear armed hostile.

 

  • In recent past, the region has gone through frequent trigger incidents like Galwan Valley encroachment across the Line of Actual Control (LAC) and Doklam face-off with China, and frequent terror attack by terrorist groups based in Pakistan. These events could lead to a war or conflict.

 

China

  • China has emerged as a major regional power with aspiration to be a global power.
  • China’s desire to dominate Asia and finally the world has implications for India.
  • India’s relations with china are changing from cooperative to competitive to combative.
  • China also continues to enhance its strategic presence in the Indian Ocean Region.
  • Simultaneously China is investing in the Indian Ocean littoral countries to achieve a foot-hold and extend influence.
  • China would like to keep India off-balance.
  • China follows the philosophy of systems destruction warfare (i.e. disruption, paralyses or destruction of enemy operational systems).

 

Pakistan

  • Pakistan remains a security threat in all dimensions i.e. nuclear, conventional and sub-conventional.
  • Pakistan continues to be the epicentre of world terror. Pakistan would continue to use non-state actors to maintain a situation of unrest.
  • Asymmetric warfare will remain an instrument of its state policy. Pakistan’s strategy would continue to be wage proxy war and in the event of an escalation, use the nuclear card.

 

China – Pak Collusive Challenge

  • Chin’s increasing economic and political ties with Pakistan have an influence on the geostrategic balance of the region.
  • China has strategic interests in using Pakistani territory to reach West Asia and Africa for trade and geo-strategic positioning. It has invested in the China Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) that connects Xinjiang region in West China to the China-built-and-operated Gwadar port near Gulf of Hormuz.
  • China has helped Pakistan militarily including help to acquire technologies for its nuclear weapons and missile program.
  • In case of a conflict between India and Pakistan, China would posture along the northern and eastern border to keep the Indian military might divided and would also use its influence in the international forums to bring about a ceasefire at the earliest.
  • Pakistan openly boasts of collusive support from China in case of a war with India.

To be continued…

Link to Part 2 

comments and value additions are most welcome.