Tag: Warfare

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177: Technology: Future Trajectory of Artificial Intelligence

 

AI is going to change the world more than anything in the history of mankind.

– Kai-Fu Lee

 

 Artificial Intelligence (AI) has permeated into all aspects of our lives. AI tools are everywhere we look. AI is  delivering tangible benefits across every  industry one can think about.

 

  • Transportation: Although it could take a decade or more to perfect them, autonomous cars will one day ferry us from place to place.

 

  • Manufacturing: AI powered robots work alongside humans to perform a limited range of tasks like assembly and stacking, and predictive analysis sensors keep equipment running smoothly.

 

  • Healthcare: In the comparatively AI-nascent field of healthcare, diseases are more quickly and accurately diagnosed, drug discovery is sped up and streamlined, virtual nursing assistants monitor patients and big data analysis helps to create a more personalized patient experience.

 

  • Education: Textbooks are digitized with the help of AI, early-stage virtual tutors assist human instructors and facial analysis gauges the emotions of students to help determine who’s struggling or bored and better tailor the experience to their individual needs.

 

  • Media: Journalism is harnessing AI, too, and will continue to benefit from it. Bloomberg uses Cyborg technology to help make quick sense of complex financial reports. The Associated Press employs the natural language abilities of Automated Insights to produce 3,700 earning reports stories per year — nearly four times more than in the recent past.

 

  • Customer Service: Last but hardly least, Google is working on an AI assistant that can place human-like calls to make appointments at, say, your neighbourhood hair salon. In addition to words, the system understands context and nuance.

 

Future Trajectory

Most AI applications today are classified as “narrow” or “weak” AI, meaning that they usually carry out a specific task they are designed for.  

AI is only just getting started. Computers will get smarter, quicker, and increasingly become capable of tasks that traditionally are carried out by humans, such as making complex decisions or engaging in creative thought. Truly intelligent entities would not be designed for one specific task but would be able to carry out many number of tasks.

A Quantum Powered AI

 Computing power is the engine of AI.

Quantum computing, along with other next-level processing capabilities such as biological and neuromorphic computing, is likely to unlock even more possibilities.

Quantum computing is basically, ability of sub-atomic particles to exist in more than one state at the same time. It is theoretically capable of completing some calculations up to 100 trillion times faster than today’s fastest computers.

In order to continually evolve to become smarter, machine learning models will inevitably become larger.

 Additionally, more processing power means we will be able to create larger amounts of “synthetic” data for training purposes, reducing the need for collecting real data to feed into algorithms for many applications.

Other technologies like neuromorphic computing would be able to mimic the “elastic” capabilities of the human brain to adapt themselves to processing new forms of information.

Creative AI

 These days we can see art, music, poetry, and even computer code is being created by AI.

This has been made possible by the ongoing development of “generative” AI i.e. when Ai creates new data rather than simply analyzing and understanding existing data.

With generative AI, analyzing and understanding is the first step of the process. It then takes what it has learned and uses it to build further examples of the models that it has studied.

This ability to create synthetic data will lead us into an era where machines will be doing things we simply haven’t seen them do before.

Ethical and Accountable AI

 At the moment, much of the inner workings of today’s AI is not transparent due to proprietary algorithms or complexity involved.

This creates a trust deficit and reluctance to let machines make  decisions that affect people’s lives.

If AI is going to live up to its potential, then the smart machines of the near future will have to be more transparent, explainable, and accountable than the ones we’re familiar with now.

Legislative and regulatory changes are likely to be put in place in future.

 

Interesting

Intel recently unveiled its Loihi processing chip, packed with more than two billion transistors, which is one application that was able to identify ten different types of hazardous material by smell alone – more quickly and accurately than trained sniffer dogs.

 

Titbits

Adversial Model – AI vs AI

The most impressive results available today are usually obtained when this is done via an “adversarial” model – effectively, two AIs are pitted against each other, with one tasked with creating something based on existing data and the other tasked with finding flaws in the new creation. When these flaws are discovered, the creative network (known as the “generator”) learns from its mistakes and eventually becomes capable of creating data that its opponent (the “discriminator” network) finds increasingly hard to distinguish from the existing data.

 

Value additions are most welcome

 

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References

https://builtin.com/artificial-intelligence/artificial-intelligence-future

https://futureoflife.org/background/benefits-risks-of-artificial-intelligence/

https://www2.deloitte.com/us/en/pages/consulting/articles/the-future-of-ai.html

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175: China’s Active Defence Strategy

 

Genesis. China’s Active defence Strategy appeared first time in  MAO’s writings in the year 1936. However, its meaning has been changing from time to time along with the war fighting philosophy of China.

 

Changes in War Fighting Philosophy. War fighting Philosophy of China has changed with the era of person in power. Over the years the changes are as follows:-

 

  • Mao Zedong – Final War (with reference to world wars)
  • Ding Xiaoping – Local War (Shift from world war to limited wars)
  • Jing Zemin – Local war with Hi Technology.
  • Hu Jintao – Informatised Local War (Network centric war)
  • Xi Jinping – Informatised and intelligentised war (Unrestricted War – including elements of hybrid and unconventional warfare even in the Grey Zone).

 

Initial Connotation. When the idea was conceived initially it meant allowing the enemy to come into own territory, in area of own choice and up to pre decide depth. Allow the enemy’s logistics supply lines get stretched out and dry down and at an opportune moment attack and defeat him. It was sort of offensive defence.

 

Present Framework. China articulates its Active Defence response as:

“China would never invade or expand, at the same time would never permit any piece of Chinese territory to separate from China & PLA will strike after enemy has attacked”.

 

Analysis & Implications

  • There is always a gap between what china preaches and practices. China although states that she will not expand, but is driven by the baser instinct of expansionism, considering herself as an empire state rather than nation state.

 

  • China decides as to what is part of China, by staking claims and producing conveniently select and doctored historical and legal documents.

 

  • China has left definition of enemy attack intentionally vague. It is not limited to military attack by kinetic means. It may include any action by the adversary which is against the interest of China.

 

  • In other words China decides what enemy attack is, and reserves the right to respond in a way it feels is appropriate.

 

  • It means China will always have the initiative and will have the legitimacy (in her opinion) for her actions.

 

  • China justifies her approach to this active defence strategy as strategically defensive but operationally offensive.

 

  • In tune with her war fighting philosophy of unrestricted warfare, the attack on enemy would be any domain (land, air, sea, cyber, space, electronic, information, psychological or even nuclear). It could use everything and anything as a weapon from the instruments of national power (DIME).

 

  • This strategy coupled with China’s practiced strategic approach of “achieving objectives without firing a shot”, would mean that China would continue to perpetuate grey zone warfare (inclusive of hybrid and unconventional warfare).

 

  • China’s formation of Strategic Support Force as a separate service, is in tune with the above mentioned strategy and actions.

 

Bottom Line

 There is an urgent need for reorientation and gearing up (not only by military) to deal with these challenges.

 

Question

Are we doing it?

 

YOUR SUGGESTIONS & VIEWS ARE MOST WELCOME

 

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169: Pillars of China’s Military Modernisation

 

China’s military modernisation has been top driven, well guided process.

Through observing other countries’ wars, including the Gulf War, the China realised that the information dominance was key to winning modern warfare.

 

Active Defence Strategy and Unrestricted Warfare

China has consistently followed the military strategy of “active defence”. However, the meaning and interpretation of the strategy has undergone changes from time to time.

In Mao Zedong’s era the strategy was premised on “striking only after the enemy has struck” in the overall back drop of total war (World war scenario).

In Deng Xiaoping’s era, local war using conventional weapons was elevated to strategic level, and the active defence strategy came to encapsulate the concept of pre-emptive attack conceived in local wars.

In Jiang Zemin’s era, the goal was to win “local wars under high-tech conditions.”

In Hu Jintao’s era, China recognized the importance of information in warfare, and the goal became winning “local wars under the conditions of informationisation.” Network-centric war is the closest equivalent of this terminology.

After Xi Jinping came to power, China’s aim shifted to winning informatised and intelligentised warfare making use of all the domains, including space, cyber, electromagnetic and psychological. Unrestricted warfare is the terminology introduced in the Chinese military lexicon.

The targets of attack in this type of warfare will include not only physical objects but also nontangible targets in cyber and cognitive spaces. The warfare is not restricted to military and military hardware.  This type of warfare uses anything as a weapon in the DIME paradigm.

 

Information Warfare and Cyber Domain

The People’s Liberation Army (PLA) has recognised that “information dominance” is crucial for seizing core initiative in modern warfare.

In this process, the Strategic Support Force (SSF) was established in late 2015. It appears that the SSF is responsible for achieving information dominance as well as providing information support for joint operations, including the space, cyber, and electromagnetic domains, and converting advanced technologies into military capabilities.

To achieve information dominance, the PLA also attaches importance to information warfare and cyber operations. This includes monitoring (surveillance), offensive operations (cyber-attacks) and defensive operations.

To cope with these challenges, China has sought to indigenise core technologies and train specialists in the cyber field.

 

Military Use of Space

China considers space as an essential domain for the prospective intelligentised warfare.

China’s space activities from their inception have been closely linked to military activities. However, it was only from the 1990s through the 2000s that the military value of space began to be recognized more widely in the PLA.

The PLA uses space to provide information support for operations on land, sea, and air and is also developing capabilities to disrupt other countries’ use of space.

In China, emerging space enterprises have rapidly boosted their technological capabilities with government and military support. The future is expected to herald an era in which the military adopts the technologies developed by the private sector and uses their services.

 

China’s Military-Civil Fusion Strategy

In China, military capabilities are being enhanced through military-civil fusion (MCF).

The MCF strategy advanced by the Xi administration aims to strengthen military capabilities and promote national development by tying together the military and socio-economy.

Since its establishment, the PLA has maintained close relations with the private sector, including participating in production activities. However, this relationship has changed with the times.

As science and technology takes on an increasing role in the security sector, and against the backdrop of the rising technological level of China’s private companies in the shift to a market economy, emphasis has been placed on MCF to enhance the military capabilities of the PLA.

The Xi administration created the Central Commission for Military-Civil Fusion Development, a powerful organization. It has launched measures in succession to ensure the smooth implementation of MCF.

In conjunction, the commission promotes the prioritisation of science, technology, and industry for national defence in new security domains, the active use of cutting-edge technologies for military purposes, and indigenisation of core technologies.

 

Thought

At times it is prudent to learn few things from one’s adversary.

Are we doing that?

 

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References

NIDS China Security Report 2021.

https://thediplomat.com/2021/04/chinas-military-has-a-hidden-weakness/

https://www.lowyinstitute.org/the-interpreter/is-china-speeding-up-military-modernisation-it-may-but-its-not-yet

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Modernization_of_the_People%27s_Liberation_Army

https://www.cfr.org/backgrounder/chinas-modernizing-military

 

 

 

 

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