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626: ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE IN MODERN WARFARE: OPPORTUNITIES AND CHALLENGES

 

My Article was published on the Indus International Research Foundation Website on 20 Mar 25.

 

In the modern battlefield, timely and accurate information is paramount. Artificial Intelligence (AI) has emerged as a transformative force in various sectors, and its integration into the military is particularly notable. AI’s integration into strategic and tactical decision-making transforms military operations by enabling leaders to anticipate potential threats, optimise resource allocation, and make faster, data-driven decisions. AI rapidly becomes a core tool for enhancing military decision-making, revolutionising strategies, and operational efficiency. It reshapes how military leaders approach battlefield tactics, logistics, and strategic planning through rapid data processing, sophisticated simulations, and predictive analysis. As armed forces worldwide increasingly adopt AI technologies, the implications for strategy, tactics, and operational efficiency are profound. While AI offers unprecedented benefits, its integration in military contexts introduces ethical concerns and strategic challenges that are central to its future role.

 

The Evolution of AI in Military Applications. The military’s interest in AI is not recent; it dates back several decades. The initial exploration of AI technologies in military contexts began in the 1950s and 1960s, focusing on simulations and rudimentary decision support systems. Over the years, advancements in machine learning, data analytics, and computational power have dramatically enhanced the capabilities of AI systems. In the 1960s, AI research focused on symbolic reasoning and game theory, with early applications in strategic simulations. The Cold War era spurred investments in AI research as nations sought technological advantages. The Gulf War in the early 1990s highlighted the importance of information superiority. AI technologies began integrating command and control systems, enabling real-time data analysis and enhanced situational awareness. The development of drones and unmanned systems marked a significant shift, with AI increasingly applied to operational contexts. Today, AI applications in the military encompass various areas, including autonomous vehicles, predictive analytics, intelligence gathering, and combat simulations. Countries like the United States, China, and Russia are investing heavily in AI research to enhance their military capabilities.

 

Benefits of AI in Military. Integrating AI into the military offers significant benefits, including increased efficiency, accuracy, and situational awareness. AI technologies streamline processes and enhance operational efficiency. By automating routine tasks, military personnel can focus on strategic planning and execution. AI systems improve the accuracy of military operations by providing data-driven insights that reduce human error. Analysing data in real time enhances decision-making, particularly in high-stakes environments. AI technologies improve situational awareness by integrating data from various sources, providing commanders with a comprehensive understanding of the battlefield. These practical advantages underscore the importance of AI in military decision-making.

 

AI in Military Contexts.

AI in the military can be broadly classified as data analytics, autonomous systems, decision support, and cyber defence. Its ability to quickly process large volumes of data and identify patterns has made AI a powerful tool for intelligence analysis, operational planning, and logistics optimisation.

 

Data Analytics and ISR (Intelligence, Surveillance, and Reconnaissance). AI-driven data analytics enhance ISR capabilities by analysing satellite images, social media data, intercepted communications, and more to identify potential threats. AI systems analyse real-time ISR data, recognising patterns that may indicate enemy movements or hidden threats. Machine learning models trained on historical data help predict potential adversarial actions, giving military leaders a tactical advantage. For example, deep learning models analyse satellite and drone imagery, identifying military installations, troop movements, or equipment locations with minimal human input. By providing commanders with this intelligence in near real-time, AI reduces the time needed to make informed tactical decisions.

 

Simulation and War Gaming. AI-powered simulations are invaluable for testing different scenarios in war gaming exercises. These simulations incorporate diverse factors, including adversary capabilities, weather, and terrain, to provide a realistic projection of possible outcomes. Such tools allow leaders to plan and rehearse operations, identify weaknesses, and refine strategies. AI simulations support large-scale strategic planning and small-unit tactics, helping teams understand the consequences of their actions before taking them on the battlefield. War gaming simulations also train and prepare soldiers and officers for complex and high-stress situations through realistic, AI-generated scenarios.

 

Predictive Maintenance and Logistics Optimisation. AI enhances logistics by predicting when vehicles or other equipment may need maintenance, ensuring that military assets are operational when required. Predictive maintenance uses AI to analyse sensor data from equipment, forecasting failures before they happen and reducing operational downtime. For instance, AI predicts tank engine wear or helicopter rotor fatigue based on operational data, allowing maintenance teams to perform pre-emptive repairs, which can be critical in conflict scenarios. This application is more efficient and potentially life-saving, a testament to the significant role AI plays in military operations.

 

Autonomous and Semi-Autonomous Systems. Autonomous systems driven by AI are reshaping the modern battlefield. Drones, ground robots, and other unmanned systems operate with varying degrees of autonomy, performing ISR, transport, and combat tasks that traditionally require human soldiers. These systems extend operational capabilities, allowing military forces to engage in high-risk missions with minimal direct exposure to human personnel.

 

Unmanned Aerial and Ground Vehicles. AI enables drones and unmanned ground vehicles (UGVs) to operate autonomously in complex environments. Equipped with computer vision and machine learning algorithms, these systems navigate hostile terrain, conduct reconnaissance, and sometimes engage targets without direct human intervention. These AI-driven vehicles can also perform multi-mission roles, often shifting from reconnaissance to combat, depending on mission needs. This flexibility allows commanders to adapt real-time strategies, using the same resources for multiple purposes, improving efficiency, and extending operational reach.

 

Swarm Technology. Swarm technology, in which groups of autonomous systems work collaboratively, represents a new frontier in military robotics. AI allows swarms of drones to communicate, make collective decisions, and adapt to changing environments, enabling them to overwhelm defences, conduct coordinated surveillance, and jam enemy signals. In a combat situation, drone swarms could confuse adversary radar systems or execute diversionary tactics, creating openings for human-operated forces. This level of coordination and adaptability would be almost impossible without AI, which processes environmental data and adjusts the swarm’s behaviour in real-time.

 

Autonomous Combat Systems and the Kill Chain. One of the most controversial uses of AI in the military is automating the “kill chain”, the sequence of decisions from target identification to engagement. While current norms generally require human oversight, there is a growing interest in developing systems that can autonomously engage targets under specific circumstances. This application raises profound ethical and legal questions, as fully autonomous combat systems could operate beyond human control, making decisions with lethal consequences. Concerns over accountability, discrimination between combatants and civilians, and the potential for accidental escalation of conflicts are central to debates on the future of such technologies.

 

Cyber Defence and Information Warfare. Cyber warfare is a crucial area where AI aids in protecting military assets from digital threats. With its ability to rapidly detect anomalies, AI helps military cyber teams identify potential intrusions and respond to cyber attacks, significantly improving defence against increasingly sophisticated adversaries.

 

Threat Detection and Response. AI-powered systems monitor military networks, identifying unusual activities and rapidly flagging potential threats. These systems can differentiate between normal and malicious behaviour by analysing network patterns, user behaviour, and system performance. Machine learning models constantly adapt to new tactics and techniques cyber adversaries use, making them crucial in mitigating advanced persistent threats (APTs). AI also plays a role in “active defence,” where it identifies an intruder and takes countermeasures, potentially isolating affected systems or misleading the adversary. Such rapid response mechanisms enhance cyber security in ways that are challenging to achieve with human teams alone.

 

Information Warfare and Disinformation Detection. Information warfare has become a critical aspect of military operations, with adversaries frequently spreading misinformation to undermine morale and erode public trust. AI-driven tools can identify disinformation patterns by analysing social media and other communications platforms and flagging content designed to mislead or destabilise. AI’s ability to monitor, detect, and counteract information attacks helps protect soldiers and civilians from psychological manipulation while countering adversarial narratives that aim to weaken resolve or incite division.

 

Decision Support Systems (DSS). AI-based DSS provides commanders with actionable insights, predicting adversary behaviour and logistics needs and suggesting strategies to address dynamic battlefield conditions. AI’s benefits in military decision-making are substantial, enhancing speed, accuracy, and operational readiness. AI allows faster decision-making by processing information and identifying threats quicker than human operators. This speed is critical in time-sensitive combat situations where delayed responses can mean the difference between success and failure.

 

AI-enabled Systems.

Project Maven. Initiated by the U.S. Department of Defence in 2017, Project Maven aims to leverage AI to enhance the military’s ability to analyse drone footage and other visual data. By employing machine learning algorithms, Project Maven can automatically identify objects and activities in video feeds, significantly improving the speed and accuracy of intelligence analysis. According to the DoD, “Project Maven enables the Department of Defence to leverage AI and machine learning to make sense of vast amounts of data.” This project exemplifies the practical application of AI in military operations, transforming how intelligence is gathered and analysed.

 

Aegis Combat System. The Aegis Combat System is an advanced naval weapons system used by the U.S. Navy and allied forces. It employs AI to enhance threat detection, tracking, and engagement capabilities. Aegis integrates data from multiple sensors to provide real-time situational awareness, enabling rapid decision-making in combat scenarios.

 

Lethal Autonomous Weapons Systems (LAWS) are a controversial application of AI in military operations. These systems can select and engage targets without human intervention, raising ethical and legal concerns. Proponents argue that LAWS can reduce risks to human soldiers and increase operational efficiency. However, critics warn that lacking human oversight in lethal decision-making could lead to unintended consequences. The United Nations has called for discussions on regulating autonomous weapons, emphasising the need for human accountability in such systems.

 

Challenges and Concerns.

Implementing AI in the military involves several practical challenges, including ethical concerns, data quality, adversarial threats, and potential over-reliance on technology. While AI presents significant opportunities for military decision-making, several challenges and ethical considerations must be addressed.

 

Data Privacy and Security. Integrating AI into military operations raises concerns about data privacy and security. Collecting and analysing vast amounts of data, including personal information, can lead to potential misuse or unauthorised access. Ensuring data integrity and protecting sensitive information are critical challenges for military organisations. Cyber security measures must be robust to prevent adversaries from exploiting vulnerabilities in AI systems.

 

Data Quality and Integration. AI systems require high-quality, structured data to make accurate decisions. Military data sources are often fragmented, making integrating and ensuring data quality difficult. If AI systems operate on poor or incomplete data, they may produce incorrect or unreliable decisions, which could have dire consequences.

 

Reliability and Trust. AI systems are not infallible and can be prone to errors, particularly in complex and dynamic environments. Building trust in AI systems is crucial for military personnel to rely on them in high-stakes situations. Ensuring the reliability and accuracy of AI algorithms requires continuous testing and validation. Military organisations must establish protocols to assess the performance of AI systems before deployment.

 

Ethical Implications, Accountability and Responsibility. Despite its benefits, AI in military decision-making raises moral and legal concerns, particularly regarding autonomy, accountability, and adherence to international laws. The potential for machines to make life-and-death decisions without human intervention raises concerns about accountability and moral responsibility. Accountability can be ambiguous in AI-driven operations. If an autonomous weapon causes unintended harm, it is often unclear whether responsibility falls on the AI developer, the commanding officer, or the operator. Establishing clear accountability is essential to prevent the misuse of AI technologies and to ensure legal and ethical conduct in military operations. The moral implications of using AI in warfare have led to calls for regulatory frameworks to govern the development and deployment of autonomous systems. Experts argue that human oversight is essential to maintain ethical standards in military operations.

 

Compliance with International Law. Many AI applications in warfare, such as autonomous drones and weaponised robots, may challenge existing international treaties, including the Geneva Conventions, which govern the conduct of war and protect non-combatants. The potential for autonomous systems to make lethal decisions without human oversight raises questions about compliance with these international norms.

 

Adversarial AI and Deception.  The potential for adversaries to exploit AI technologies poses a significant threat to military operations. Hostile entities can exploit cyber security vulnerabilities in AI systems to disrupt operations or manipulate data. For example, an adversary might feed false data into an AI system or use techniques to mislead autonomous systems, potentially leading to harmful or counterproductive decisions. Military organisations must develop counter-AI strategies and robust cyber security measures to safeguard their systems from adversarial threats. Collaboration with industry and academia can enhance resilience against emerging threats.

 

Dependence on Technology and Operational Vulnerability. Over-reliance on AI could create vulnerabilities, particularly if these systems are compromised or disabled in combat. If soldiers and commanders become too dependent on AI-based decision support, they may lack the necessary skills or resilience to operate without these tools in high-stress situations.

 

Future of AI in Military Decision-Making

As AI technology evolves, its role in military decision-making will expand. Several key areas warrant attention for future developments. The trajectory of AI in military decision-making suggests further integration, with increased autonomy in combat systems, more sophisticated predictive capabilities, and enhanced collaboration between human and AI decision-makers. However, the future of AI in military contexts will depend on addressing current ethical concerns, refining regulatory frameworks, and developing global agreements on autonomous weaponry.

 

Ongoing Research and Development. Continued research and development in AI technologies will be critical for addressing military applications’ challenges and ethical implications. Collaboration between military organisations, academia, and industry can drive innovation. Governments and defence agencies should invest in research programs exploring AI’s ethical, operational, and technological aspects in military contexts. This approach will ensure that AI systems are developed responsibly and effectively.

 

Human-AI Teaming Models and Collaboration. The future of military decision-making will likely involve greater collaboration between humans and AI systems. AI can augment human decision-making by providing data-driven insights, while human operators can offer contextual understanding and ethical considerations. This human-AI teaming approach leverages AI’s data processing and pattern recognition strengths while preserving human oversight and moral judgment. Developing effective collaboration models will be crucial for maximising AI’s benefits in military operations.

 

Advanced Training and Adaptation. As AI tools evolve, military training will adapt to integrate AI-based decision-making into officer training and war gaming exercises. Future military professionals must understand AI’s capabilities and limitations to ensure they can use these tools effectively and ethically. Enhanced training programs are essential to prepare military personnel to integrate AI technologies. Training should focus on developing skills in data analysis, AI ethics, and human-machine collaboration.

 

Regulatory Frameworks. The rapid advancement of AI technologies necessitates the establishment of regulatory frameworks to govern their use in military operations. Such frameworks should address ethical considerations, accountability, and oversight in autonomous systems. International cooperation is essential for developing norms and standards regarding the use of AI in warfare. Establishing treaties or agreements can help mitigate the risks of autonomous weapons and promote responsible AI use.

 

International Collaboration and AI Arms Control. International collaboration and regulation will be essential to manage the risks associated with military AI. Nations may need to negotiate treaties similar to those that govern nuclear and chemical weapons, establishing protocols and limits for AI-driven autonomous weapons.

 

Conclusion

 Integrating AI into military decision-making reshapes how armed forces operate, strategise, and engage in combat. While AI offers significant benefits regarding efficiency, accuracy, and situational awareness, it also raises significant ethical and operational challenges. As military organisations continue to explore AI technologies, addressing these concerns will ensure responsible and effective use in the field. Balancing AI’s benefits with the principles of international law and ethical warfare will be essential to shaping a future where AI is a responsible and effective partner in military decision-making. The future of military decision-making will depend on finding the right balance between leveraging AI’s capabilities and maintaining human oversight and accountability. As AI technology advances, ongoing research, regulation, and collaboration will ensure that its deployment in military contexts aligns with humanity’s broader goals and values.

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Information and data included in the blog are for educational & non-commercial purposes only and have been carefully adapted, excerpted, or edited from reliable and accurate sources. All copyrighted material belongs to respective owners and is provided only for wider dissemination.

 

 

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600: RISE OF COMBAT DRONES: IMPLICATIONS FOR TRADITIONAL AIRPOWER

 

The rapid advancement of unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs), known as drones, has revolutionised modern warfare. Once primarily used for reconnaissance and surveillance, drones have evolved into sophisticated combat platforms capable of executing precision strikes, electronic warfare, and logistics support. The proliferation of combat drones challenges the dominance of traditional airpower by altering strategic doctrines, operational tactics, and force structures. This article explores the rise of combat drones and their profound implications for conventional airpower.

 

Armed variants of the Predator, such as the MQ-1 and MQ-9 Reaper, demonstrated the feasibility of unmanned precision strikes, ushering in a new era of aerial warfare. Since then, countries such as China, Russia, Turkey, and Iran have rapidly developed their combat drone capabilities. Technological advancements in artificial intelligence (AI), sensor miniaturisation, and autonomous navigation have expanded combat drones’ capabilities. Modern drones can operate autonomously, engage in complex swarm tactics (where multiple drones coordinate their actions in real-time), and integrate with network-centric warfare systems. A list of major combat drones is appended.

 

Key Advantages of Combat Drones

 

Combat drones, or unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs), have rapidly transformed modern military operations. They offer a range of significant advantages that enhance strategic effectiveness and operational efficiency. These advantages are critical for established military powers and smaller nations looking to improve their defence capabilities.

 

Cost-Effectiveness. One of the most prominent advantages of combat drones is their cost-effectiveness. Traditional manned aircraft, such as fighter jets and bombers, involve substantial financial investments in production, maintenance, fuel, and the continuous training of pilots. These high operational and training costs make them financially burdensome, especially for nations with smaller defence budgets. Combat drones, in contrast, are much more affordable to produce, operate, and maintain. This makes drones an attractive option for military forces seeking advanced technology without the prohibitive expenses of traditional aviation.

 

Reduced Risk to Human Life. The ability to operate drones remotely means that military personnel are not physically present in the combat environment, which significantly reduces the risk to human life. Manned aircraft often place pilots in high-risk situations, such as hostile airspace, where the threat of anti-aircraft weapons, enemy fighters, or surface-to-air missiles is constant. This feature makes drones especially valuable for missions in high-risk zones, such as counterterrorism operations, surveillance of enemy positions, or strikes against heavily fortified targets. By minimising human casualties, drones ensure mission sustainability and allow forces to continue operations with fewer limitations.

 

Persistent Surveillance and Endurance. Unlike manned aircraft with limited flight durations due to fuel constraints, combat drones can remain airborne for extended periods, often hours or even days. This endurance allows drones to conduct continuous intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance (ISR) operations over extended periods without returning to the base for fuel or rest. Drones can loiter over targets for extended periods, tracking enemy movements, gathering intelligence, and relaying data to commanders. This constant flow of information improves situational awareness and allows military forces to remain proactive rather than reactive in their operations.

 

Precision Strike Capabilities. Modern combat drones are equipped with advanced targeting systems, enabling them to conduct precise strikes with high accuracy. This precision is made possible through advanced sensors, cameras, and laser-guided munitions, which enable drones to accurately identify and engage enemy targets such as vehicles, facilities, or personnel, even in complex environments. Precision is critical in counterinsurgency operations, where avoiding collateral damage is crucial for maintaining local support and reducing the risk of civilian backlash.

 

Operational Flexibility. Another significant advantage of combat drones is their operational flexibility. Drones are highly versatile and can be deployed in various roles, from surveillance and reconnaissance to electronic warfare and decoy operations. They can serve as support platforms for ground troops, relaying intelligence, providing airstrikes, or conducting search and rescue missions. Drones can also be used in electronic warfare, disrupting enemy communication systems or jamming radar signals. Additionally, drones can serve as decoys, drawing enemy fire or confusing adversaries about the location of critical assets. This adaptability makes drones valuable assets in numerous military operations, enhancing their utility in diverse combat scenarios.

 

Drone Usage in Recent Conflicts

 

Nagorno-Karabakh Conflict. This conflict saw extensive use of drones by Azerbaijan, which utilised both tactical drones for surveillance and loitering munitions for precision strikes. Azerbaijan’s use of Turkish-made Bayraktar TB2 drones (a medium-altitude, long-endurance tactical unmanned aerial vehicle), alongside Israeli-made drones, played a crucial role in undermining Armenian defensive positions and disrupting supply lines. Drones provided real-time intelligence and executed targeted airstrikes, significantly impacting the battlefield dynamics. The success of drones in this conflict highlighted their role in modern warfare, showcasing their effectiveness in both reconnaissance and offensive operations and marking a shift in how airpower is utilised in regional conflicts.

 

Ukraine-Russia Conflict. In the ongoing Ukraine-Russia conflict, drones have become pivotal for both sides. Ukraine has relied heavily on drones for intelligence, surveillance, reconnaissance (ISR), and precision strikes. The use of Turkish-made Bayraktar drones has garnered international attention due to their success in targeting Russian artillery and supply lines. Russia, in turn, has deployed both reconnaissance drones and loitering munitions such as the Lancet drone. Drones are crucial in this conflict, offering both tactical advantages in real-time battlefield awareness and as weapons of deterrence. The conflict exemplifies how UAVs transform modern armies conducting warfare on the ground and in the air.

 

Israel-Hamas War. During the Israel-Hamas conflict, drones played a significant role in both offensive and defensive strategies. Israel utilised advanced unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) like the Hermes 450 and the Heron TP for surveillance, reconnaissance, and precision strikes, targeting Hamas military infrastructure, leaders, and weapon caches. Drones enable real-time intelligence, improving the effectiveness of airstrikes while minimising collateral damage. Hamas also deployed drones, often for reconnaissance and surveillance, but with increasing sophistication in attacking Israeli targets. The conflict highlighted the growing reliance on drones for modern warfare, as they offer cost-effective, high-precision capabilities in asymmetric conflicts.

 

U.S. Counterterrorism Operations. Combat drones have been central to U.S. counterterrorism operations, particularly in regions like the Middle East and North Africa. The U.S. military has employed drones for targeted strikes against high-value targets, including terrorist leaders and militants affiliated with groups like Al-Qaeda and ISIS. Drones such as the MQ-9 Reaper and MQ-1 Predator have provided surveillance and precision strike capabilities without the risk of piloting manned aircraft in hostile environments. These operations, while effective in neutralising threats, have raised ethical and legal concerns about civilian casualties, sovereignty violations, and the long-term strategic consequences of drone warfare.

 

Future Trends in Drone Warfare

 

AI-Driven Autonomy. AI-driven autonomy in drone warfare will revolutionise decision-making, enabling UAVs to analyse data and execute missions independently. This reduces human intervention, enhances speed, and improves operational efficiency, allowing drones to make real-time tactical decisions and adapt to changing battlefield dynamics without relying on constant human oversight.

 

Swarm Tactics. Swarm tactics involve deploying many drones that can communicate and collaborate autonomously to overwhelm targets. This approach maximises impact, confuses enemies, and complicates defence strategies. Swarms can be used for offensive operations, like saturation attacks, and defensive roles, such as countering incoming threats in coordinated formations.

 

Hybrid Manned-Unmanned Operations. Hybrid manned-unmanned operations combine human decision-making with autonomous drone capabilities, enhancing flexibility and situational awareness. Human pilots can control UAVs while receiving support from AI systems that automate data processing and mission planning. This synergy allows for optimal control and strategic execution while reducing the cognitive burden on operators.

 

Miniaturisation and Stealth. Miniaturisation and stealth technologies are enhancing drones’ ability to operate undetected. Smaller, quieter UAVs with reduced radar signatures can infiltrate enemy defences, gather intelligence, or carry out strikes without being easily intercepted. These advances improve tactical flexibility and extend the operational range of drones in contested environments.

 

Implications of Combat Drones on Traditional Airpower

 

The rapid advancement and proliferation of combat drones, also known as unmanned combat aerial vehicles (UCAVs), have fundamentally reshaped the landscape of air warfare. The increasing integration of unmanned systems has now disrupted what was once a domain exclusively dominated by manned fighter jets, strategic bombers, and attack aircraft. While traditional airpower remains indispensable in major military operations, combat drones introduce new doctrines, alter strategic calculations, and challenge long-held assumptions about air superiority. From cost-effectiveness to survivability, from force projection to counter-air missions, the implications of drones on traditional airpower are profound and multifaceted.

 

Changes in Force Structuring. This cost-effectiveness has allowed major and minor powers to expand their air combat capabilities without requiring massive budgets. Countries that could not previously project significant airpower can now field substantial drone fleets, effectively democratising access to aerial warfare. Moreover, drone attrition is far more acceptable than the loss of a piloted aircraft, further changing the strategic calculus. Traditional airpower relies on highly trained pilots, whose combat loss affects military effectiveness and carries significant political and moral weight. The expendability of drones means that military commanders can take more significant risks, leading to more aggressive and flexible operational doctrines.

 

Changing the Nature of Air Superiority and Aerial Combat. The rise of combat drones challenges traditional definitions of air superiority. Historically, air superiority was determined by the ability of manned fighter aircraft to establish dominance over enemy airspace through superior manoeuvrability, advanced sensors, and beyond-visual-range (BVR) engagements. However, drones are now increasingly capable of carrying out air-to-air missions, raising questions about the future role of manned aircraft in achieving air superiority. For example, the Loyal Wingman concept, which pairs autonomous drones with manned fighter jets, represents a hybrid traditional and drone-based airpower model. In this setup, manned aircraft act as command-and-control nodes while drones perform high-risk tasks such as dogfighting, electronic warfare, and decoy operations. Similarly, China is developing drones like the FH-97, modelled after the U.S. XQ-58 Valkyrie, which can operate as autonomous wingmen to piloted aircraft.

 

Changes in Traditional Fighter Combat Tactics. Small, agile drones can operate in swarms, overwhelming enemy defences in ways that traditional aircraft cannot counter easily. Countries such as China and Russia are actively developing swarm drone technology that could neutralise enemy air defences and fighter squadrons by sheer numbers. In such a scenario, traditional air combat tactics based on individual or squadron engagements may become obsolete, replaced by algorithm-driven swarm warfare where AI-driven drones execute complex attack patterns beyond human reaction times.

 

Evolution of Air Defence Systems. The rise of combat drones has forced rapid changes in air defence systems. Traditional air defences, such as surface-to-air missile (SAM) systems, were designed to counter high-speed, high-altitude threats from fighter jets and bombers. However, drones present an entirely different challenge, as they are often smaller, slower, and fly at lower altitudes, making them difficult for conventional radar systems to detect and track. Countries have responded by integrating counter-drone capabilities into their air defence networks. Integrated air defence systems, such as Israel’s Iron Dome and Russia’s Pantsir-S1, have been adapted to target drones with high-precision missiles and rapid-fire auto-cannons. Additionally, electronic warfare (EW) has emerged as a crucial element in countering drone threats. Many modern air defence systems now incorporate jamming and spoofing capabilities to disrupt combat drones’ communications and GPS navigation, rendering them ineffective. Despite these adaptations, drones are still proving to be highly disruptive. The 2020 Nagorno-Karabakh conflict demonstrated how drones could systematically dismantle traditional air defences. Azerbaijani forces used Turkish and Israeli drones to destroy Armenian SAM sites, rendering their conventional air defence network ineffective. This shift suggests that air defence will increasingly rely on layered, AI-driven networks capable of simultaneously countering manned and unmanned threats in future conflicts.

 

Alteration in Roles and Tasks. Traditional airpower doctrine has been built around fighter jets for air superiority, strategic bombers for deep penetration strikes, and Battlefield air support (BAS) aircraft for ground engagements. However, combat drones are altering these roles in significant ways. In battlefield air support missions, drones have already proven their effectiveness. The MQ-9 Reaper, for example, has been widely used by the U.S. military for BAS missions in Afghanistan, Iraq, and Syria. Unlike traditional BAS aircraft requiring significant logistics and support, drones can loiter over a battlefield for extended periods, providing persistent surveillance and rapid strike capability. This persistence gives ground commanders real-time intelligence and strike options that traditional aircraft cannot match. In strategic bombing missions, drones are also beginning to make their mark. While heavy bombers like the B-52 or B-2 Spirit lack the payload capacity, swarming drone tactics could compensate by overwhelming enemy defences with multiple smaller precision strikes. China’s WZ-8 high-speed reconnaissance drone and the U.S. RQ-180 stealth drone suggest that drones may soon take over many roles traditionally assigned to strategic bombers.

 

Shift in Human Role. Additionally, the increasing use of AI in drone operations is shifting the human role in air warfare. While traditional airpower relies on human decision-making, AI-driven drones can process vast amounts of battlefield data in real time, react faster than human pilots, and execute missions with minimal human intervention. This shift raises ethical and operational questions about the future of autonomous air warfare, particularly in conflicts where rapid decision-making can mean the difference between victory and defeat.

 

The Future of Manned Aircraft in a Drone-Dominated Battlefield. While drones are rapidly transforming air warfare, it is unlikely that traditional manned aircraft will become obsolete in the near future. Instead, airpower will likely evolve into a hybrid model where manned and unmanned platforms work together. For example, the U.S. Air Force’s Next-Generation Air Dominance (NGAD) program envisions a future where advanced fighter jets operate alongside AI-driven drones in a coordinated battle network.

 

Evolutionary Process. Stealth fighter jets will still be critical for high-end air combat against technologically advanced adversaries. While drones offer many advantages, they still face limitations regarding autonomy, electronic warfare vulnerabilities, and adaptability in complex combat scenarios. Human pilots bring strategic thinking, adaptability, and situational awareness that AI-driven drones cannot fully replicate. That said, as AI and drone technology continue to improve, we may eventually see a shift where manned fighters become command platforms rather than frontline combatants. Future air battles may be fought with autonomous drone swarms controlled by human operators from standoff distances, reducing the need for pilots to engage in direct combat.

 

Conclusion

The rise of combat drones represents a paradigm shift in modern warfare, challenging the supremacy of traditional air power. While manned aircraft will likely remain relevant for the foreseeable future, their role is shifting toward command and control rather than direct engagement. As drone technology continues to advance, the future of air warfare will likely be defined not by individual dogfights but by networks of autonomous systems operating in concert with traditional manned platforms. In this evolving landscape, the key to maintaining air dominance will be successfully integrating drones into traditional airpower frameworks, leveraging human and artificial intelligence to maximise combat effectiveness. 

 

The increasing integration of drones necessitates a revaluation of military doctrines, investment priorities, and force structures. The future of air warfare lies in a balanced approach that leverages the complementary strengths of both manned and unmanned systems.

 

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References:-

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  1. Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS). (2022). The Future of Air Dominance: Evaluating the Role of Combat Drones.

 

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Information and data included in the blog are for educational & non-commercial purposes only and have been carefully adapted, excerpted, or edited from reliable and accurate sources. All copyrighted material belongs to respective owners and is provided only for wider dissemination.

 

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589: WINDS OF CHANGE IN GLOBAL DEFENCE

 

Pic Courtesy Net

 

My Article published on the Life of Soldier website on 29 Jan 25

 

The global defence landscape is transforming significantly, driven by technological advancements, shifting geopolitical dynamics, and evolving security threats. Nations increasingly prioritise developing cutting-edge technologies such as hypersonic missiles, artificial intelligence, and quantum radar to enhance military capabilities. The rise of non-traditional threats, including cyber-attacks and space-based warfare, also reshapes defence strategies. As countries adjust to these changes, the winds of change in global defence are prompting nations to rethink military priorities, strategies, and international relations. The winds of change in global defence are characterised by rising defence spending and a shift toward advanced military technologies. Countries are increasing their military budgets in response to escalating geopolitical tensions and emerging threats. This surge in defence spending reflects a global shift toward preparedness, emphasising modernisation, strategic alliances, and a more proactive approach to defence.

 

New Weapons and Dimensions of Warfare

 

AI-Powered Autonomous Weapons. The first fully autonomous AI-controlled weapon systems have been deployed in active combat zones. The deployment of AI-powered autonomous weapons in active combat zones marks a significant leap in military technology, raising concerns over their implications for global security. These systems, capable of making real-time decisions without human intervention, are being tested in conflicts such as those in the Middle East and Eastern Europe. While proponents argue they enhance precision and reduce human casualties, critics fear they could lead to uncontrolled escalation, with machines making life-and-death decisions. Ethical dilemmas arise over accountability for actions taken by autonomous systems, and there are growing calls for international regulations to govern the development and use of such advanced weapons.

 

Intensification of the Hypersonic Missile Arms Race. The hypersonic missile arms race has intensified as countries like the United States, China, and Russia race to develop advanced, high-speed weaponry capable of travelling at speeds greater than five times the speed of sound. These missiles can manoeuvre unpredictably, making them difficult to intercept with existing defence systems. This technological leap raises concerns about the potential for destabilising global security as nations vie for strategic advantage in an increasingly competitive and unpredictable arms race. The growing development and testing of hypersonic missiles signal a new era in military warfare, potentially altering the balance of power and escalation risks worldwide.

 

Cyber Attacks on Critical Infrastructure. Cyber attacks on critical infrastructure have become a growing threat to national security and economic stability. These attacks target essential sectors such as energy, transportation, finance, and healthcare, aiming to disrupt operations, steal sensitive data, or cause widespread damage. Notable incidents, including the 2021 Colonial Pipeline attack in the U.S. and various ransomware campaigns, highlight vulnerabilities in critical systems. As cyber warfare becomes an increasingly prominent tactic, governments and organisations are prioritising cyber security measures and investing in advanced technologies to prevent, detect, and mitigate such threats. These attacks’ rising frequency and sophistication emphasise the urgent need for robust cyber defence strategies globally.

 

Militarisation of Space. Space-based weapons systems are emerging as a new frontier in global defence. Several countries (the U.S., China, India, and France) have unveiled plans for orbital weapons platforms, signalling the militarisation of space and threatening existing space treaties to prevent such developments. These systems, which include anti-satellite missiles, directed energy weapons, and satellite-based lasers, are designed to target and neutralise adversary satellites or other space assets. The growing militarisation of space raises concerns over the potential for conflict beyond Earth’s atmosphere as nations seek to secure space-based resources and gain strategic advantage. The development of space-based weapons could disrupt communications, navigation, and surveillance capabilities, escalating tensions and prompting calls for international regulation of space militarisation.

 

Quantum Radar Military Breakthrough. Quantum radar represents a ground-breaking military technology with the potential to revolutionise defence systems. Unlike conventional radar, which relies on radio waves, quantum radar uses quantum entanglement to detect objects with unprecedented accuracy. This technology can potentially detect stealth aircraft and missiles, which are designed to evade traditional radar. By exploiting the quantum properties of light, quantum radar can function in environments where traditional systems struggle, such as in electronic warfare scenarios. As nations like China and the United States race to develop quantum radar, it could significantly alter the balance of military power, enhancing defence capabilities and complicating interception strategies. China has announced the development of quantum radar technology, which has the potential to render stealth aircraft obsolete and revolutionise detection capabilities in military operations.

 

Research on Genetic Bioweapons. Leaked documents have revealed ongoing research into genetic-based bioweapons, heightening fears of engineered pandemics and the ethical implications of such advancements. Research on genetic bioweapons has raised significant concerns over the moral, legal, and security implications of manipulating biological agents for warfare. Advances in genetic engineering, particularly CRISPR technology (Clustered Regularly Interspaced Short Palindromic Repeats enable precise editing of genes), have made it possible to modify pathogens, potentially creating more lethal or targeted biological weapons. The idea of designing diseases that could specifically target specific populations based on genetic markers adds a disturbing dimension to bioweapons research. Although international treaties like the Biological Weapons Convention aim to prevent such developments, the growing accessibility of genetic technologies makes the risk of bioengineered weapons a pressing global concern, necessitating stronger regulations and monitoring.

 

Successful Test of EMP Weapons. Successful electromagnetic pulse (EMP) weapons tests have raised alarms about the potential impact on global security. EMP weapons generate intense bursts of electromagnetic radiation capable of disabling electronic systems, including power grids, communication networks, and military technologies. In recent tests, countries like the United States, China, and Russia have demonstrated the destructive potential of EMPs, which could paralyse critical infrastructure on a large scale. While EMP weapons are seen as strategic tools for disrupting adversaries, their use also carries significant risks of unintended global consequences, including widespread civilian suffering and the collapse of essential services.

 

Devastating Swarm Drones.  Swarm drones, groups of autonomous or semi-autonomous drones operating in coordination, are emerging as a devastating new tool in modern air warfare. These drones can be deployed in large numbers, overwhelming enemy defences with precision strikes and creating significant disruption. Equipped with advanced sensors and artificial intelligence, swarm drones can navigate complex environments, target multiple objectives simultaneously, and adapt to changing conditions. Their use in military conflicts has raised concerns about their potential for widespread destruction, especially when used for surveillance, sabotage, or large-scale attacks. As drone technology evolves, swarm drones are expected to become a significant threat to global security.

 

Neural Interface Weapons. Neural interface weapons represent a new frontier in military technology, leveraging direct connections between the human brain and machines to control or disrupt enemy forces. These weapons could potentially manipulate neural functions, influencing behaviour and decision-making, or even incapacitating individuals through targeted brain stimulation. Research into brain-machine interfaces (BMIs) is advancing rapidly, opening possibilities for offensive and defensive warfare applications. While these technologies could enhance soldier performance or create new forms of non-lethal warfare, they raise significant ethical, privacy, and security concerns. Developing neural interface weapons could redefine the nature of conflict, blurring the lines between technology and human cognition.

 

Military Expenditure & Arms Race Trends

 

Record-Breaking Global Military Expenditure. Global military expenditure has reached unprecedented levels, with countries worldwide allocating record-breaking budgets for defence in recent years. In 2023, global military spending surpassed $2.44 trillion, marking a 3.7% increase from the previous year. This surge is driven by escalating geopolitical tensions, the ongoing war in Ukraine, and growing security concerns, particularly in regions like the Indo-Pacific. Nations like the United States, China, and Russia are leading the charge with significant investments in advanced technologies, including cyber capabilities and artificial intelligence. This increase in military spending raises concerns about global stability and resource allocation.

 

China’s Military Growth. China’s military growth has been a defining feature of its rise as a global power. The country has significantly expanded its defence budget in recent years, investing heavily in advanced technologies such as artificial intelligence, cyber capabilities, and next-generation weaponry. China’s (official) defence budget has grown over the past decade, totalling $296 billion in 2023. However, defence spending could be at least triple that value, closing in on the U.S. figures of about $1 trillion. Modernising its armed forces includes developing sophisticated missile systems, stealth aircraft, and a growing naval fleet, positioning China as a formidable military presence, especially in the Indo-Pacific region. This rapid military expansion is fuelled by Beijing’s strategic goals of asserting territorial claims, enhancing regional influence, and strengthening its global geopolitical stance amidst rising tensions with the West.

 

China’s Growing Influence in the Global Defence Industry. China’s growing influence in the global defence industry has become increasingly evident as the country emerges as a leading producer and exporter of military technology. Five Chinese firms now rank among the world’s top 12 defence companies, with the Aviation Industry Corporation of China (AVIC) securing the second position globally. China’s military exports are expanding across Africa, Asia, and the Middle East, offering competitive alternatives to Western suppliers. The country’s focus on innovation and its strategic partnerships and initiatives like the Belt and Road position China as a key player in reshaping the global defence landscape and challenging traditional arms-exporting powers.

 

Escalation in East Asia’s Defence Budgets. Defence budgets in East Asia are escalating rapidly as regional security concerns intensify, driven by the growing influence of China and its military advancements, as well as North Korea’s continued missile tests. Countries like Japan, South Korea, and Taiwan are significantly increasing their military spending to counter these threats and bolster national defence capabilities. Japan is modernising its forces with advanced missile defence systems and fighter jets, while South Korea is focusing on strengthening its air and missile defence systems. This regional arms build-up reflects heightened tensions, with countries investing in cutting-edge technologies such as hypersonic missiles, cyber security, and naval assets to safeguard their security.

 

Surge in Japan and South Korea Defence Sales. Japan and South Korea have seen a significant rise in defence sales, driven by increasing regional security concerns and growing defence budgets. In 2023, both nations ramped up military spending, fuelled by North Korea’s missile threats and heightened tensions with China. Traditionally focused on self-defence, Japan is expanding its defence capabilities, including advanced missile defence systems and fighter jets. South Korea is boosting its arms production, particularly in defence technology such as drones and military vehicles. This surge in defence sales highlights both countries’ shifts towards more proactive defence strategies amidst evolving security dynamics in the Indo-Pacific region.

 

Rise in EU Defence Spending. European Union defence spending has sharply increased recently, reflecting growing concerns over regional security and the need for stronger military deterrence. In 2023, EU member states collectively raised their defence budgets by over 10%, with countries like Germany, France, and Poland leading the charge. The Russian invasion of Ukraine drives the surge, prompting EU nations to reassess their defence strategies and military preparedness. Increased investments are being directed toward modernising the armed forces, enhancing cyber defence, and strengthening NATO collaborations. This rise in defence spending signals a shift towards greater military autonomy and readiness within Europe.

 

Boost in Russian Defence Budget. Russia has significantly increased its defence budget recently, primarily driven by ongoing military operations in Ukraine and growing security concerns over NATO expansion. Russia’s defence spending is set to reach unprecedented levels in the coming years. The Kremlin plans to allocate 13.5 trillion roubles ($145 billion) to military expenditures in 2025, a 25% increase from the 2024 budget of 10.4 trillion roubles. This boost reflects Russia’s strategy to enhance its military readiness and maintain a robust defence posture amidst international sanctions and geopolitical isolation. The surge in defence spending also aims to reinforce Russia’s strategic interests, both domestically and globally.

 

Middle East Arms Race. The Middle East is witnessing an escalating arms race as regional powers invest heavily in military technology to assert influence and ensure security. Nations like Saudi Arabia, Iran, and the United Arab Emirates are significantly expanding their defence budgets, purchasing advanced weaponry, including missile defence systems, fighter jets, and drones. Tensions surrounding Iran’s nuclear ambitions, the conflict in Yemen, and rivalries between Sunni and Shia factions fuel the competition. This arms race intensifies the region’s instability, as military buildups may provoke further conflict and exacerbate existing geopolitical rivalries. The influx of modern arms also poses challenges for regional and global security. Iran has announced plans to triple its military budget for the upcoming fiscal year. Government spokeswoman Fatemeh Mohajerani has revealed the proposed 200% increase in defence funding. Iran’s current military spending is estimated at $10.3 billion.

 

North African Arms Race. The North African arms race is intensifying as countries in the region ramp up military spending in response to regional instability, terrorism, and geopolitical rivalries. Nations like Algeria, Egypt, and Morocco are significantly increasing their defence budgets, investing in advanced weaponry, including fighter jets, tanks, and missile systems. The competition is fuelled by territorial disputes, especially over Western Sahara, and concerns over militant groups operating in the Sahel region. In addition to conventional arms, there is growing interest in acquiring cutting-edge technologies, such as drones and cyber warfare capabilities. This arms race threatens to exacerbate tensions and destabilise an already volatile region. Morocco and Algeria are driving a regional military spending surge, accounting for 82% of North African and 45.5% of total African defence expenditure, intensifying the arms race on the continent.

 

Technology for Conflict Prevention

 

Advancements in technology are playing a crucial role in conflict prevention by enhancing early warning systems, improving diplomacy, and facilitating timely interventions. AI-driven data analysis can predict potential hotspots by monitoring social, political, and economic trends and identifying signs of instability before they escalate into violence. Satellite surveillance and geospatial technologies help track military movements, border disputes, and natural resource conflicts. Additionally, communication platforms allow for quicker international coordination, enabling global response mechanisms. Technologies like blockchain can foster transparency in peace agreements. At the same time, social media monitoring tools provide real-time insights into public sentiment, empowering governments and organisations to take preventive action effectively.

 

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Winds of Change in Global Defence

 

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References and credits

To all the online sites and channels.

References:-

  1. “The Future of Defense: AI, Cybersecurity, and Emerging Technologies”, Journal of Strategic Studies (2022).
  1. “Hybrid Warfare: The New Face of Conflict”, The RUSI Journal (2023).
  1. “2024 Global Defense Outlook”, Jane’s Defence.
  1. “The Future of Military Technologies”, RAND Corporation (2023).
  1. “Global Trends 2040: A More Contested World”, National Intelligence Council (NIC) (2021).
  2. “Defense Expenditure Trends in Asia-Pacific”, Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI) (2022).
  1. “Global Security in the Twenty-First Century” by Sean Kay.

Disclaimer:

Information and data included in the blog are for educational & non-commercial purposes only and have been carefully adapted, excerpted, or edited from reliable and accurate sources. All copyrighted material belongs to respective owners and is provided only for wider dissemination.

 

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