swarm – Air Marshal's Perspective

February 15, 2025

600: RISE OF COMBAT DRONES: IMPLICATIONS FOR TRADITIONAL AIRPOWER

The rapid advancement of unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs), known as drones, has revolutionised modern warfare. Once primarily used for reconnaissance and surveillance, drones have evolved into sophisticated combat platforms capable of executing precision strikes, electronic warfare, and logistics support. The proliferation of combat drones challenges the dominance of traditional airpower by altering strategic doctrines, operational tactics, and force structures. This article explores the rise of combat drones and their profound implications for conventional airpower.

Armed variants of the Predator, such as the MQ-1 and MQ-9 Reaper, demonstrated the feasibility of unmanned precision strikes, ushering in a new era of aerial warfare. Since then, countries such as China, Russia, Turkey, and Iran have rapidly developed their combat drone capabilities. Technological advancements in artificial intelligence (AI), sensor miniaturisation, and autonomous navigation have expanded combat drones’ capabilities. Modern drones can operate autonomously, engage in complex swarm tactics (where multiple drones coordinate their actions in real-time), and integrate with network-centric warfare systems. A list of major combat drones is appended.

Key Advantages of Combat Drones

Combat drones, or unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs), have rapidly transformed modern military operations. They offer a range of significant advantages that enhance strategic effectiveness and operational efficiency. These advantages are critical for established military powers and smaller nations looking to improve their defence capabilities.

Cost-Effectiveness. One of the most prominent advantages of combat drones is their cost-effectiveness. Traditional manned aircraft, such as fighter jets and bombers, involve substantial financial investments in production, maintenance, fuel, and the continuous training of pilots. These high operational and training costs make them financially burdensome, especially for nations with smaller defence budgets. Combat drones, in contrast, are much more affordable to produce, operate, and maintain. This makes drones an attractive option for military forces seeking advanced technology without the prohibitive expenses of traditional aviation.

Reduced Risk to Human Life. The ability to operate drones remotely means that military personnel are not physically present in the combat environment, which significantly reduces the risk to human life. Manned aircraft often place pilots in high-risk situations, such as hostile airspace, where the threat of anti-aircraft weapons, enemy fighters, or surface-to-air missiles is constant. This feature makes drones especially valuable for missions in high-risk zones, such as counterterrorism operations, surveillance of enemy positions, or strikes against heavily fortified targets. By minimising human casualties, drones ensure mission sustainability and allow forces to continue operations with fewer limitations.

Persistent Surveillance and Endurance. Unlike manned aircraft with limited flight durations due to fuel constraints, combat drones can remain airborne for extended periods, often hours or even days. This endurance allows drones to conduct continuous intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance (ISR) operations over extended periods without returning to the base for fuel or rest. Drones can loiter over targets for extended periods, tracking enemy movements, gathering intelligence, and relaying data to commanders. This constant flow of information improves situational awareness and allows military forces to remain proactive rather than reactive in their operations.

Precision Strike Capabilities. Modern combat drones are equipped with advanced targeting systems, enabling them to conduct precise strikes with high accuracy. This precision is made possible through advanced sensors, cameras, and laser-guided munitions, which enable drones to accurately identify and engage enemy targets such as vehicles, facilities, or personnel, even in complex environments. Precision is critical in counterinsurgency operations, where avoiding collateral damage is crucial for maintaining local support and reducing the risk of civilian backlash.

Operational Flexibility. Another significant advantage of combat drones is their operational flexibility. Drones are highly versatile and can be deployed in various roles, from surveillance and reconnaissance to electronic warfare and decoy operations. They can serve as support platforms for ground troops, relaying intelligence, providing airstrikes, or conducting search and rescue missions. Drones can also be used in electronic warfare, disrupting enemy communication systems or jamming radar signals. Additionally, drones can serve as decoys, drawing enemy fire or confusing adversaries about the location of critical assets. This adaptability makes drones valuable assets in numerous military operations, enhancing their utility in diverse combat scenarios.

Drone Usage in Recent Conflicts

Nagorno-Karabakh Conflict. This conflict saw extensive use of drones by Azerbaijan, which utilised both tactical drones for surveillance and loitering munitions for precision strikes. Azerbaijan’s use of Turkish-made Bayraktar TB2 drones (a medium-altitude, long-endurance tactical unmanned aerial vehicle), alongside Israeli-made drones, played a crucial role in undermining Armenian defensive positions and disrupting supply lines. Drones provided real-time intelligence and executed targeted airstrikes, significantly impacting the battlefield dynamics. The success of drones in this conflict highlighted their role in modern warfare, showcasing their effectiveness in both reconnaissance and offensive operations and marking a shift in how airpower is utilised in regional conflicts.

Ukraine-Russia Conflict. In the ongoing Ukraine-Russia conflict, drones have become pivotal for both sides. Ukraine has relied heavily on drones for intelligence, surveillance, reconnaissance (ISR), and precision strikes. The use of Turkish-made Bayraktar drones has garnered international attention due to their success in targeting Russian artillery and supply lines. Russia, in turn, has deployed both reconnaissance drones and loitering munitions such as the Lancet drone. Drones are crucial in this conflict, offering both tactical advantages in real-time battlefield awareness and as weapons of deterrence. The conflict exemplifies how UAVs transform modern armies conducting warfare on the ground and in the air.

Israel-Hamas War. During the Israel-Hamas conflict, drones played a significant role in both offensive and defensive strategies. Israel utilised advanced unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) like the Hermes 450 and the Heron TP for surveillance, reconnaissance, and precision strikes, targeting Hamas military infrastructure, leaders, and weapon caches. Drones enable real-time intelligence, improving the effectiveness of airstrikes while minimising collateral damage. Hamas also deployed drones, often for reconnaissance and surveillance, but with increasing sophistication in attacking Israeli targets. The conflict highlighted the growing reliance on drones for modern warfare, as they offer cost-effective, high-precision capabilities in asymmetric conflicts.

U.S. Counterterrorism Operations. Combat drones have been central to U.S. counterterrorism operations, particularly in regions like the Middle East and North Africa. The U.S. military has employed drones for targeted strikes against high-value targets, including terrorist leaders and militants affiliated with groups like Al-Qaeda and ISIS. Drones such as the MQ-9 Reaper and MQ-1 Predator have provided surveillance and precision strike capabilities without the risk of piloting manned aircraft in hostile environments. These operations, while effective in neutralising threats, have raised ethical and legal concerns about civilian casualties, sovereignty violations, and the long-term strategic consequences of drone warfare.

Future Trends in Drone Warfare

AI-Driven Autonomy. AI-driven autonomy in drone warfare will revolutionise decision-making, enabling UAVs to analyse data and execute missions independently. This reduces human intervention, enhances speed, and improves operational efficiency, allowing drones to make real-time tactical decisions and adapt to changing battlefield dynamics without relying on constant human oversight.

Swarm Tactics. Swarm tactics involve deploying many drones that can communicate and collaborate autonomously to overwhelm targets. This approach maximises impact, confuses enemies, and complicates defence strategies. Swarms can be used for offensive operations, like saturation attacks, and defensive roles, such as countering incoming threats in coordinated formations.

Hybrid Manned-Unmanned Operations. Hybrid manned-unmanned operations combine human decision-making with autonomous drone capabilities, enhancing flexibility and situational awareness. Human pilots can control UAVs while receiving support from AI systems that automate data processing and mission planning. This synergy allows for optimal control and strategic execution while reducing the cognitive burden on operators.

Miniaturisation and Stealth. Miniaturisation and stealth technologies are enhancing drones’ ability to operate undetected. Smaller, quieter UAVs with reduced radar signatures can infiltrate enemy defences, gather intelligence, or carry out strikes without being easily intercepted. These advances improve tactical flexibility and extend the operational range of drones in contested environments.

Implications of Combat Drones on Traditional Airpower

The rapid advancement and proliferation of combat drones, also known as unmanned combat aerial vehicles (UCAVs), have fundamentally reshaped the landscape of air warfare. The increasing integration of unmanned systems has now disrupted what was once a domain exclusively dominated by manned fighter jets, strategic bombers, and attack aircraft. While traditional airpower remains indispensable in major military operations, combat drones introduce new doctrines, alter strategic calculations, and challenge long-held assumptions about air superiority. From cost-effectiveness to survivability, from force projection to counter-air missions, the implications of drones on traditional airpower are profound and multifaceted.

Changes in Force Structuring. This cost-effectiveness has allowed major and minor powers to expand their air combat capabilities without requiring massive budgets. Countries that could not previously project significant airpower can now field substantial drone fleets, effectively democratising access to aerial warfare. Moreover, drone attrition is far more acceptable than the loss of a piloted aircraft, further changing the strategic calculus. Traditional airpower relies on highly trained pilots, whose combat loss affects military effectiveness and carries significant political and moral weight. The expendability of drones means that military commanders can take more significant risks, leading to more aggressive and flexible operational doctrines.

Changing the Nature of Air Superiority and Aerial Combat. The rise of combat drones challenges traditional definitions of air superiority. Historically, air superiority was determined by the ability of manned fighter aircraft to establish dominance over enemy airspace through superior manoeuvrability, advanced sensors, and beyond-visual-range (BVR) engagements. However, drones are now increasingly capable of carrying out air-to-air missions, raising questions about the future role of manned aircraft in achieving air superiority. For example, the Loyal Wingman concept, which pairs autonomous drones with manned fighter jets, represents a hybrid traditional and drone-based airpower model. In this setup, manned aircraft act as command-and-control nodes while drones perform high-risk tasks such as dogfighting, electronic warfare, and decoy operations. Similarly, China is developing drones like the FH-97, modelled after the U.S. XQ-58 Valkyrie, which can operate as autonomous wingmen to piloted aircraft.

Changes in Traditional Fighter Combat Tactics. Small, agile drones can operate in swarms, overwhelming enemy defences in ways that traditional aircraft cannot counter easily. Countries such as China and Russia are actively developing swarm drone technology that could neutralise enemy air defences and fighter squadrons by sheer numbers. In such a scenario, traditional air combat tactics based on individual or squadron engagements may become obsolete, replaced by algorithm-driven swarm warfare where AI-driven drones execute complex attack patterns beyond human reaction times.

Evolution of Air Defence Systems. The rise of combat drones has forced rapid changes in air defence systems. Traditional air defences, such as surface-to-air missile (SAM) systems, were designed to counter high-speed, high-altitude threats from fighter jets and bombers. However, drones present an entirely different challenge, as they are often smaller, slower, and fly at lower altitudes, making them difficult for conventional radar systems to detect and track. Countries have responded by integrating counter-drone capabilities into their air defence networks. Integrated air defence systems, such as Israel’s Iron Dome and Russia’s Pantsir-S1, have been adapted to target drones with high-precision missiles and rapid-fire auto-cannons. Additionally, electronic warfare (EW) has emerged as a crucial element in countering drone threats. Many modern air defence systems now incorporate jamming and spoofing capabilities to disrupt combat drones’ communications and GPS navigation, rendering them ineffective. Despite these adaptations, drones are still proving to be highly disruptive. The 2020 Nagorno-Karabakh conflict demonstrated how drones could systematically dismantle traditional air defences. Azerbaijani forces used Turkish and Israeli drones to destroy Armenian SAM sites, rendering their conventional air defence network ineffective. This shift suggests that air defence will increasingly rely on layered, AI-driven networks capable of simultaneously countering manned and unmanned threats in future conflicts.

Alteration in Roles and Tasks. Traditional airpower doctrine has been built around fighter jets for air superiority, strategic bombers for deep penetration strikes, and Battlefield air support (BAS) aircraft for ground engagements. However, combat drones are altering these roles in significant ways. In battlefield air support missions, drones have already proven their effectiveness. The MQ-9 Reaper, for example, has been widely used by the U.S. military for BAS missions in Afghanistan, Iraq, and Syria. Unlike traditional BAS aircraft requiring significant logistics and support, drones can loiter over a battlefield for extended periods, providing persistent surveillance and rapid strike capability. This persistence gives ground commanders real-time intelligence and strike options that traditional aircraft cannot match. In strategic bombing missions, drones are also beginning to make their mark. While heavy bombers like the B-52 or B-2 Spirit lack the payload capacity, swarming drone tactics could compensate by overwhelming enemy defences with multiple smaller precision strikes. China’s WZ-8 high-speed reconnaissance drone and the U.S. RQ-180 stealth drone suggest that drones may soon take over many roles traditionally assigned to strategic bombers.

Shift in Human Role. Additionally, the increasing use of AI in drone operations is shifting the human role in air warfare. While traditional airpower relies on human decision-making, AI-driven drones can process vast amounts of battlefield data in real time, react faster than human pilots, and execute missions with minimal human intervention. This shift raises ethical and operational questions about the future of autonomous air warfare, particularly in conflicts where rapid decision-making can mean the difference between victory and defeat.

The Future of Manned Aircraft in a Drone-Dominated Battlefield. While drones are rapidly transforming air warfare, it is unlikely that traditional manned aircraft will become obsolete in the near future. Instead, airpower will likely evolve into a hybrid model where manned and unmanned platforms work together. For example, the U.S. Air Force’s Next-Generation Air Dominance (NGAD) program envisions a future where advanced fighter jets operate alongside AI-driven drones in a coordinated battle network.

Evolutionary Process. Stealth fighter jets will still be critical for high-end air combat against technologically advanced adversaries. While drones offer many advantages, they still face limitations regarding autonomy, electronic warfare vulnerabilities, and adaptability in complex combat scenarios. Human pilots bring strategic thinking, adaptability, and situational awareness that AI-driven drones cannot fully replicate. That said, as AI and drone technology continue to improve, we may eventually see a shift where manned fighters become command platforms rather than frontline combatants. Future air battles may be fought with autonomous drone swarms controlled by human operators from standoff distances, reducing the need for pilots to engage in direct combat.

Conclusion

The rise of combat drones represents a paradigm shift in modern warfare, challenging the supremacy of traditional air power. While manned aircraft will likely remain relevant for the foreseeable future, their role is shifting toward command and control rather than direct engagement. As drone technology continues to advance, the future of air warfare will likely be defined not by individual dogfights but by networks of autonomous systems operating in concert with traditional manned platforms. In this evolving landscape, the key to maintaining air dominance will be successfully integrating drones into traditional airpower frameworks, leveraging human and artificial intelligence to maximise combat effectiveness.

The increasing integration of drones necessitates a revaluation of military doctrines, investment priorities, and force structures. The future of air warfare lies in a balanced approach that leverages the complementary strengths of both manned and unmanned systems.

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References and credits

To all the online sites and channels.

References:-

Boyle, M. J. (2015). “The Drone Age: How Drone Technology Will Change War and Peace.” International Affairs, 91(1), 67-84.

Horowitz, M. C., & Fuhrmann, M. (2018). “Droning On: Explaining the Proliferation of Unmanned Aerial Vehicles.” International Security, 43(2), 7-47.

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Disclaimer:

Information and data included in the blog are for educational & non-commercial purposes only and have been carefully adapted, excerpted, or edited from reliable and accurate sources. All copyrighted material belongs to respective owners and is provided only for wider dissemination.

February 1, 2025

589: WINDS OF CHANGE IN GLOBAL DEFENCE

Pic Courtesy Net

My Article published on the Life of Soldier website on 29 Jan 25

The global defence landscape is transforming significantly, driven by technological advancements, shifting geopolitical dynamics, and evolving security threats. Nations increasingly prioritise developing cutting-edge technologies such as hypersonic missiles, artificial intelligence, and quantum radar to enhance military capabilities. The rise of non-traditional threats, including cyber-attacks and space-based warfare, also reshapes defence strategies. As countries adjust to these changes, the winds of change in global defence are prompting nations to rethink military priorities, strategies, and international relations. The winds of change in global defence are characterised by rising defence spending and a shift toward advanced military technologies. Countries are increasing their military budgets in response to escalating geopolitical tensions and emerging threats. This surge in defence spending reflects a global shift toward preparedness, emphasising modernisation, strategic alliances, and a more proactive approach to defence.

New Weapons and Dimensions of Warfare

AI-Powered Autonomous Weapons. The first fully autonomous AI-controlled weapon systems have been deployed in active combat zones. The deployment of AI-powered autonomous weapons in active combat zones marks a significant leap in military technology, raising concerns over their implications for global security. These systems, capable of making real-time decisions without human intervention, are being tested in conflicts such as those in the Middle East and Eastern Europe. While proponents argue they enhance precision and reduce human casualties, critics fear they could lead to uncontrolled escalation, with machines making life-and-death decisions. Ethical dilemmas arise over accountability for actions taken by autonomous systems, and there are growing calls for international regulations to govern the development and use of such advanced weapons.

Intensification of the Hypersonic Missile Arms Race. The hypersonic missile arms race has intensified as countries like the United States, China, and Russia race to develop advanced, high-speed weaponry capable of travelling at speeds greater than five times the speed of sound. These missiles can manoeuvre unpredictably, making them difficult to intercept with existing defence systems. This technological leap raises concerns about the potential for destabilising global security as nations vie for strategic advantage in an increasingly competitive and unpredictable arms race. The growing development and testing of hypersonic missiles signal a new era in military warfare, potentially altering the balance of power and escalation risks worldwide.

Cyber Attacks on Critical Infrastructure. Cyber attacks on critical infrastructure have become a growing threat to national security and economic stability. These attacks target essential sectors such as energy, transportation, finance, and healthcare, aiming to disrupt operations, steal sensitive data, or cause widespread damage. Notable incidents, including the 2021 Colonial Pipeline attack in the U.S. and various ransomware campaigns, highlight vulnerabilities in critical systems. As cyber warfare becomes an increasingly prominent tactic, governments and organisations are prioritising cyber security measures and investing in advanced technologies to prevent, detect, and mitigate such threats. These attacks’ rising frequency and sophistication emphasise the urgent need for robust cyber defence strategies globally.

Militarisation of Space. Space-based weapons systems are emerging as a new frontier in global defence. Several countries (the U.S., China, India, and France) have unveiled plans for orbital weapons platforms, signalling the militarisation of space and threatening existing space treaties to prevent such developments. These systems, which include anti-satellite missiles, directed energy weapons, and satellite-based lasers, are designed to target and neutralise adversary satellites or other space assets. The growing militarisation of space raises concerns over the potential for conflict beyond Earth’s atmosphere as nations seek to secure space-based resources and gain strategic advantage. The development of space-based weapons could disrupt communications, navigation, and surveillance capabilities, escalating tensions and prompting calls for international regulation of space militarisation.

Quantum Radar Military Breakthrough. Quantum radar represents a ground-breaking military technology with the potential to revolutionise defence systems. Unlike conventional radar, which relies on radio waves, quantum radar uses quantum entanglement to detect objects with unprecedented accuracy. This technology can potentially detect stealth aircraft and missiles, which are designed to evade traditional radar. By exploiting the quantum properties of light, quantum radar can function in environments where traditional systems struggle, such as in electronic warfare scenarios. As nations like China and the United States race to develop quantum radar, it could significantly alter the balance of military power, enhancing defence capabilities and complicating interception strategies. China has announced the development of quantum radar technology, which has the potential to render stealth aircraft obsolete and revolutionise detection capabilities in military operations.

Research on Genetic Bioweapons. Leaked documents have revealed ongoing research into genetic-based bioweapons, heightening fears of engineered pandemics and the ethical implications of such advancements. Research on genetic bioweapons has raised significant concerns over the moral, legal, and security implications of manipulating biological agents for warfare. Advances in genetic engineering, particularly CRISPR technology (Clustered Regularly Interspaced Short Palindromic Repeats enable precise editing of genes), have made it possible to modify pathogens, potentially creating more lethal or targeted biological weapons. The idea of designing diseases that could specifically target specific populations based on genetic markers adds a disturbing dimension to bioweapons research. Although international treaties like the Biological Weapons Convention aim to prevent such developments, the growing accessibility of genetic technologies makes the risk of bioengineered weapons a pressing global concern, necessitating stronger regulations and monitoring.

Successful Test of EMP Weapons. Successful electromagnetic pulse (EMP) weapons tests have raised alarms about the potential impact on global security. EMP weapons generate intense bursts of electromagnetic radiation capable of disabling electronic systems, including power grids, communication networks, and military technologies. In recent tests, countries like the United States, China, and Russia have demonstrated the destructive potential of EMPs, which could paralyse critical infrastructure on a large scale. While EMP weapons are seen as strategic tools for disrupting adversaries, their use also carries significant risks of unintended global consequences, including widespread civilian suffering and the collapse of essential services.

Devastating Swarm Drones. Swarm drones, groups of autonomous or semi-autonomous drones operating in coordination, are emerging as a devastating new tool in modern air warfare. These drones can be deployed in large numbers, overwhelming enemy defences with precision strikes and creating significant disruption. Equipped with advanced sensors and artificial intelligence, swarm drones can navigate complex environments, target multiple objectives simultaneously, and adapt to changing conditions. Their use in military conflicts has raised concerns about their potential for widespread destruction, especially when used for surveillance, sabotage, or large-scale attacks. As drone technology evolves, swarm drones are expected to become a significant threat to global security.

Neural Interface Weapons. Neural interface weapons represent a new frontier in military technology, leveraging direct connections between the human brain and machines to control or disrupt enemy forces. These weapons could potentially manipulate neural functions, influencing behaviour and decision-making, or even incapacitating individuals through targeted brain stimulation. Research into brain-machine interfaces (BMIs) is advancing rapidly, opening possibilities for offensive and defensive warfare applications. While these technologies could enhance soldier performance or create new forms of non-lethal warfare, they raise significant ethical, privacy, and security concerns. Developing neural interface weapons could redefine the nature of conflict, blurring the lines between technology and human cognition.

Military Expenditure & Arms Race Trends

Record-Breaking Global Military Expenditure. Global military expenditure has reached unprecedented levels, with countries worldwide allocating record-breaking budgets for defence in recent years. In 2023, global military spending surpassed $2.44 trillion, marking a 3.7% increase from the previous year. This surge is driven by escalating geopolitical tensions, the ongoing war in Ukraine, and growing security concerns, particularly in regions like the Indo-Pacific. Nations like the United States, China, and Russia are leading the charge with significant investments in advanced technologies, including cyber capabilities and artificial intelligence. This increase in military spending raises concerns about global stability and resource allocation.

China’s Military Growth. China’s military growth has been a defining feature of its rise as a global power. The country has significantly expanded its defence budget in recent years, investing heavily in advanced technologies such as artificial intelligence, cyber capabilities, and next-generation weaponry. China’s (official) defence budget has grown over the past decade, totalling $296 billion in 2023. However, defence spending could be at least triple that value, closing in on the U.S. figures of about $1 trillion. Modernising its armed forces includes developing sophisticated missile systems, stealth aircraft, and a growing naval fleet, positioning China as a formidable military presence, especially in the Indo-Pacific region. This rapid military expansion is fuelled by Beijing’s strategic goals of asserting territorial claims, enhancing regional influence, and strengthening its global geopolitical stance amidst rising tensions with the West.

China’s Growing Influence in the Global Defence Industry. China’s growing influence in the global defence industry has become increasingly evident as the country emerges as a leading producer and exporter of military technology. Five Chinese firms now rank among the world’s top 12 defence companies, with the Aviation Industry Corporation of China (AVIC) securing the second position globally. China’s military exports are expanding across Africa, Asia, and the Middle East, offering competitive alternatives to Western suppliers. The country’s focus on innovation and its strategic partnerships and initiatives like the Belt and Road position China as a key player in reshaping the global defence landscape and challenging traditional arms-exporting powers.

Escalation in East Asia’s Defence Budgets. Defence budgets in East Asia are escalating rapidly as regional security concerns intensify, driven by the growing influence of China and its military advancements, as well as North Korea’s continued missile tests. Countries like Japan, South Korea, and Taiwan are significantly increasing their military spending to counter these threats and bolster national defence capabilities. Japan is modernising its forces with advanced missile defence systems and fighter jets, while South Korea is focusing on strengthening its air and missile defence systems. This regional arms build-up reflects heightened tensions, with countries investing in cutting-edge technologies such as hypersonic missiles, cyber security, and naval assets to safeguard their security.

Surge in Japan and South Korea Defence Sales. Japan and South Korea have seen a significant rise in defence sales, driven by increasing regional security concerns and growing defence budgets. In 2023, both nations ramped up military spending, fuelled by North Korea’s missile threats and heightened tensions with China. Traditionally focused on self-defence, Japan is expanding its defence capabilities, including advanced missile defence systems and fighter jets. South Korea is boosting its arms production, particularly in defence technology such as drones and military vehicles. This surge in defence sales highlights both countries’ shifts towards more proactive defence strategies amidst evolving security dynamics in the Indo-Pacific region.

Rise in EU Defence Spending. European Union defence spending has sharply increased recently, reflecting growing concerns over regional security and the need for stronger military deterrence. In 2023, EU member states collectively raised their defence budgets by over 10%, with countries like Germany, France, and Poland leading the charge. The Russian invasion of Ukraine drives the surge, prompting EU nations to reassess their defence strategies and military preparedness. Increased investments are being directed toward modernising the armed forces, enhancing cyber defence, and strengthening NATO collaborations. This rise in defence spending signals a shift towards greater military autonomy and readiness within Europe.

Boost in Russian Defence Budget. Russia has significantly increased its defence budget recently, primarily driven by ongoing military operations in Ukraine and growing security concerns over NATO expansion. Russia’s defence spending is set to reach unprecedented levels in the coming years. The Kremlin plans to allocate 13.5 trillion roubles ($145 billion) to military expenditures in 2025, a 25% increase from the 2024 budget of 10.4 trillion roubles. This boost reflects Russia’s strategy to enhance its military readiness and maintain a robust defence posture amidst international sanctions and geopolitical isolation. The surge in defence spending also aims to reinforce Russia’s strategic interests, both domestically and globally.

Middle East Arms Race. The Middle East is witnessing an escalating arms race as regional powers invest heavily in military technology to assert influence and ensure security. Nations like Saudi Arabia, Iran, and the United Arab Emirates are significantly expanding their defence budgets, purchasing advanced weaponry, including missile defence systems, fighter jets, and drones. Tensions surrounding Iran’s nuclear ambitions, the conflict in Yemen, and rivalries between Sunni and Shia factions fuel the competition. This arms race intensifies the region’s instability, as military buildups may provoke further conflict and exacerbate existing geopolitical rivalries. The influx of modern arms also poses challenges for regional and global security. Iran has announced plans to triple its military budget for the upcoming fiscal year. Government spokeswoman Fatemeh Mohajerani has revealed the proposed 200% increase in defence funding. Iran’s current military spending is estimated at $10.3 billion.

North African Arms Race. The North African arms race is intensifying as countries in the region ramp up military spending in response to regional instability, terrorism, and geopolitical rivalries. Nations like Algeria, Egypt, and Morocco are significantly increasing their defence budgets, investing in advanced weaponry, including fighter jets, tanks, and missile systems. The competition is fuelled by territorial disputes, especially over Western Sahara, and concerns over militant groups operating in the Sahel region. In addition to conventional arms, there is growing interest in acquiring cutting-edge technologies, such as drones and cyber warfare capabilities. This arms race threatens to exacerbate tensions and destabilise an already volatile region. Morocco and Algeria are driving a regional military spending surge, accounting for 82% of North African and 45.5% of total African defence expenditure, intensifying the arms race on the continent.

Technology for Conflict Prevention

Advancements in technology are playing a crucial role in conflict prevention by enhancing early warning systems, improving diplomacy, and facilitating timely interventions. AI-driven data analysis can predict potential hotspots by monitoring social, political, and economic trends and identifying signs of instability before they escalate into violence. Satellite surveillance and geospatial technologies help track military movements, border disputes, and natural resource conflicts. Additionally, communication platforms allow for quicker international coordination, enabling global response mechanisms. Technologies like blockchain can foster transparency in peace agreements. At the same time, social media monitoring tools provide real-time insights into public sentiment, empowering governments and organisations to take preventive action effectively.

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Winds of Change in Global Defence

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References and credits

To all the online sites and channels.

References:-

“The Future of Defense: AI, Cybersecurity, and Emerging Technologies”, Journal of Strategic Studies (2022).

“Hybrid Warfare: The New Face of Conflict”, The RUSI Journal (2023).

“2024 Global Defense Outlook”, Jane’s Defence.

“The Future of Military Technologies”, RAND Corporation (2023).

“Global Trends 2040: A More Contested World”, National Intelligence Council (NIC) (2021).
“Defense Expenditure Trends in Asia-Pacific”, Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI) (2022).

“Global Security in the Twenty-First Century” by Sean Kay.

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December 10, 2024

555: PREVIEWING AERO INDIA 2025: EXPECTED ATTRACTIONS

Wrote this article for the Media

Air shows are events where aviation enthusiasts, industry professionals, and the general public gather to witness aerial displays and learn about the latest developments in aviation technology. These events typically combine trade exhibitions with public air displays. They include Aerobatic performances by military and civilian aircraft, demonstrations of fighter jets, helicopters, and commercial planes, static displays, trade exhibitions, and seminars. These air shows are a platform for launching new aircraft and technologies and promoting international aviation collaboration. Major international air shows include the Paris Air Show, Farnborough International Air Show (UK), Dubai Air Show (UAE), Singapore Air Show, MAKS Air Show (Russia), and Aero India.

Aero India, a global event for defence and aerospace stakeholders, is more than just a biennial air show and aerospace exhibition held at the Yelahanka Air Force Station in Bengaluru, India. It is a platform that unites the global aviation community, offering opportunities for collaboration and investment in the Indian defence sector. Organised by the Ministry of Defence, it is one of Asia’s most significant aerospace and defence events, showcasing both civilian and military aviation. The event includes displays by the Indian Air Force (IAF) and international aerobatic teams, static displays for public viewing, business exhibitions, seminars & conferences.

Building on the success of past editions, Aero India 2025 is set to be a landmark event. Scheduled from February 10 to 14, 2025, the event has already garnered significant interest, with over 240 exhibitors confirming their participation. The first three days will be dedicated to business visitors, providing a platform for fruitful collaborations, while the final two days will be open to the public, offering a unique opportunity to witness the latest advancements in the aerospace and defence sectors. The anticipation is palpable as the defence strategic community and journalists are already discussing the new attractions expected to be unveiled during the show.

Highlights of Aero India 2023

Aero India 2023 was held from February 13 to 17. The event’s theme was “The Runway to a Billion Opportunities.” The event showcased India’s growing defence manufacturing capabilities and promoted the “Make in India, Make for the World” initiative. Over 800 defence companies (exhibitors, businesses, investors, start-ups, and MSMEs) from 80 countries attended, including major global players like Airbus, Boeing, and Lockheed Martin. The event saw a footfall of over seven lakh visitors. The main highlights of the event were:-

- 800+ companies participated (700 Indian and about 110 foreign companies). The major exhibitors included Airbus, Boeing, Dassault Aviation, Lockheed Martin, Israel Aerospace Industry, BrahMos Aerospace, Army Aviation, HC Robotics, SAAB, Safran, Rolls Royce, Larsen & Toubro, Bharat Forge Limited, Hindustan Aeronautics Limited (HAL), Bharat Electronics Limited (BEL), Bharat Dynamics Limited (BDL), and BEML Limited.

- Defence Ministers from 32 countries, Air Chiefs from 29 countries, and 73 Chief Executive Officers of global and Indian original equipment manufacturers visited and participated in the event.

- Approximately 250+ MoUs/partnerships worth more than Rs 75,000 Crore were finalised. About Rs 200 crore was pledged at the maiden iDEX Investor Hub (iIH).

- India’s thrust was on self-reliance and Making in India. The intention was to enhance exports, encourage joint ventures and co-production, transfer technology, and project India as a cheaper and better option for a manufacturing hub.

- The event aimed to integrate domestic MSMEs and start-ups in the global supply chain and attract foreign investments, including partnerships for co-development and co-production.

- The event aimed to promote the export of indigenous air platforms like Light Combat Aircraft (LCA)-Tejas, HTT-40 trainer, Dornier Light Utility Helicopter (LUH), Light Combat Helicopter (LCH) and Advanced Light Helicopter (ALH).

- The Russian presence was minimal, probably due to their preoccupation with the Russia–Ukraine war. On the other hand, the USA came with many aircraft, including F-35, F-16/F-21, F-18, and B-I Bombers.

Aero India 2025: Expected Attractions.

The air show will feature the latest advancements in civil, military, and space aviation, offering domestic and international companies a platform to showcase their innovations. Highlights include spectacular aerobatic performances, cutting-edge defence technologies, and industry presentations. Exhibition pavilions will highlight India’s growing role in defence innovation. The event will offer ample networking opportunities and business development platforms for stakeholders across the aerospace and defence sectors.

Self-Reliance and Aero India. Aero India showcases cutting-edge technologies and is a testament to India’s growing self-reliance in the defence sector. The event is crucial in advancing the Indian government’s ‘Atmanirbhar Bharat’ (Self-Reliant India) initiative, which aims to reduce import dependence and boost indigenous defence manufacturing. By highlighting India’s growing strength in defence manufacturing, Aero India instils a sense of pride and support for increasing self-reliance.

Showcasing Indigenous Technologies. Indian defence manufacturers (DPSUs and private sector) will actively participate in showcasing home-grown technologies. This is critical in demonstrating India’s growing capabilities in designing and manufacturing advanced defence equipment.

Collaborations and Partnerships. Aero India is a national event and a global platform for defence collaborations. It’s where Indian companies form joint ventures with international defence giants, fostering a sense of global community. Aero India facilitates international partnerships, supporting India’s goal of producing more defence equipment locally. Joint ventures with global giants like Lockheed Martin, Boeing, and Dassault Aviation help set up manufacturing facilities in India, aligning with the Make in India initiative. This reduces India’s reliance on imports and promotes local aircraft, parts, and avionicsproduction, strengthening our global standing in the aerospace and defence sectors.

Innovation and Research. Aero India would also highlight India’s investment in indigenous research and development (R&D). The event would underscore India’s technological advancements in defence that support national self-reliance, from unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) to advanced radar systems and missile technology. Indian firms’ increasing focus on designing and producing critical defence technologies locally will be showcased.

Export Opportunities. India proposes to export defence technologies, supporting self-reliance and strengthening its presence in the global defence market. Aero India will highlight the export potential of Indian-made defence products, like the Tejas fighter and advanced helicopters.

Foreign Aviation Companies Participation in Aero India. Aero India 2025 is expected to feature extensive participation from foreign aviation companies, continuing the strong international presence seen in previous editions. Major global defence manufacturers like Boeing, Dassault Aviation, Lockheed Martin, and Airbus are anticipated to return, showcasing advanced fighter jets such as the F-16, F-18, and Rafale. These companies are vying for multi-billion-dollar defence contracts with the Indian government, making Aero India a crucial negotiation platform. Additionally, foreign delegations from countries including the U.S., France, Israel, Russia, and others across Europe are expected. These firms will exhibit a variety of aerospace technologies, from advanced fighter jets and drones to cutting-edge avionics and defence systems.

Russian Presence in Aero India 2025. The Russian presence in Aero India 2023 was minimal. However, in recent times, Russia has been pursuing the sale of its defence equipment with renewed vigour. Russia is expected to have a strong presence at Aero India 2025. Russia would aim to reinforce its commitment to Indo-Russian defence ties and potentially spark interest in future collaborations or technology transfers involving advanced aerospace systems. Additionally, there is speculation that Russia might showcase its Su-57E fifth-generation stealth fighter jet.

Defence Research and Development Organisation (DRDO). During Aero India 2025, the DRDO is expected to showcase its latest advancements in defence technology. DRDO may present its latest advancements in UAVs (unmanned aerial vehicles), missile systems such as Akash-NG and Astra, and cutting-edge technologies supporting India’s hypersonic and space-defence initiatives. The exhibition would also focus on future-ready technologies such as hypersonic weapons, stealth technologies, and artificial intelligence-based defence systems. DRDO’s collaboration with the private sector to boost defence exports will also be a key theme.

Indian Defence PSU Participation in Aero India. Aero India 2025 will witness strong participation from India’s Defence Public Sector Undertakings (PSUs), including Hindustan Aeronautics Limited (HAL), Bharat Electronics Limited (BEL), Bharat Dynamics Limited (BDL), and others. These PSUs will showcase their latest advancements in Indigenous aerospace and defence technologies, supporting the government’s “Atmanirbhar Bharat” initiative. HAL, in particular, will focus on promoting export opportunities for the Tejas Light Combat Aircraft and helicopter platforms. Expect advanced radar systems, electronic warfare equipment, and communication technologies from BEL. It might also highlight AI-driven defence solutions and smart battlefield management systems. BDL will likely feature missile systems, including indigenous surface-to-air and anti-tank guided missiles. Given the increasing focus on multi-domain operations, companies like Mazagon Dock Shipbuilders and Garden Reach Shipbuilders may promote naval platforms.

Hindustan Aeronautics Limited (HAL) is the key PSU in promoting Made in India products, such as the Tejas Light Combat Aircraft and Light Utility Helicopter (LUH). These platforms not only demonstrate Indian engineering and technological prowess but also enhance defence capabilities by reducing reliance on foreign suppliers. HAL is expected to showcase a wide range of aerospace innovations, and it generally showcases and announces its new projects and updates the progress of the previous ones. An update on the progress of India’s indigenous fighter aircraft projects, i.e. Tejas Mk II and fifth generation AMCA, by HAL and Aeronautical Development Agency (ADA) would be expected. Advanced Light Helicopter (ALH) Dhruv, LCH (Light Combat Helicopter) Prachand, and the HTT-40 trainer aircraft will likely feature prominently. HAL’s progress on its CATS Program and the indigenous fighter aircraft engine project (by GTRE), will also be eagerly awaited.

Unmanned Aerial Systems (UAS). There would be a significant focus on drones, swarms and autonomous systems. These will likely include military and civilian UAVs, with applications ranging from defence reconnaissance to logistics and disaster management. Considering the increased role of drones in air warfare, drone display and air display of armed drones may also be included.

iDEX in Aero India 2025. During Aero India 2025, the Innovations for Defence Excellence (iDEX) initiative is expected to have a significant presence, building on its success from previous editions. iDEX serves as a platform to connect startups and innovators with the Indian defence ecosystem, aiming to foster innovation in defence technology. In 2023, the iDEX pavilion showcased numerous startups and facilitated the maiden iDEX Investor Hub, where over ₹200 crores were pledged to support defence-related innovations. For 2025, iDEX will likely continue promoting startups through its exclusive pavilion, hosting innovation challenges, and encouraging partnerships between defence firms and new ventures. This will include networking opportunities, demonstrations of new technologies, and potentially another round of the iDEX Investor Hub to attract funding.

Air Display. Air Display during Aero India. Aero India 2025 will feature thrilling aerial displays by Indian and international aerobatic teams and military aircraft. Performances from the Indian Air Force (IAF) would likely include Sukhoi Su-30MKI and Rafale jets demonstrating combat manoeuvres, Tejas Light Combat Aircraft (LCA) showcasing its agility and advanced capabilities, and Helicopter displays by the Light Utility Helicopter (LUH). Air Display would have the Surya Kiran Aerobatic Team flying Hawk Mk132 aircraft, providing breath-taking formations, and the Sarang team performing aerobatic manoeuvres with HAL Dhruv helicopters. Aircraft from global manufacturers like the F-16, Rafale, and Eurofighter Typhoons may also be seen in the Indian skies.

The countdown to Aero India 2025 has begun. With a diverse array of attractions, including live aerobatic displays, the unveiling of new projects, and innovations from the iDEX Pavilion, the event will highlight India’s growing prominence in the global defence sector. It promises to foster collaboration between international and domestic stakeholders, providing opportunities for business growth, knowledge exchange, and technological advancement. Aero India 2025 is poised to celebrate innovation and strengthen India’s position as a key player in the global aerospace industry.

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