Tag: russia

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MILITARY SPENDING: FACTS, TRENDS & ANALYSIS

Pic courtesy: military mortgage center

SIPRI (Stockholm International Peace Research Institute) is an independent international institute dedicated to research into conflict, armaments, arms control and disarmament. Established in 1966, SIPRI provides data, analysis and recommendations, based on open sources, to policymakers, researchers, media and the interested public.

SIPRI Yearbook 2021 has been published and it presents a combination of original data in areas such as world military expenditure, international arms transfers, arms production, nuclear forces, armed conflicts and multilateral peace operations.

Relevant extracts on military expenditure are given below:-

 

World Military Expenditure

 

The growth in total spending in 2020 was largely influenced by expenditure patterns in the United States and China.

 

World military expenditure is estimated to have been US$1981 billion in 2020. Total spending was 2.6 per cent higher than in 2019 and 9.3 per cent higher than in 2011.

 

Military spending increased in at least four of the world’s five regions is :-
• 5.1 per cent in Africa
• 4.0 per cent in Europe
• 3.9 per cent in the Americas
• 2.5 per cent in Asia and Oceania.

 

Impact of Covid-19

 

While the impact of the Covid-19 pandemic on military spending will become clearer in the coming years, general observations about its impact are as follows:-

 

  • Several countries are known to have reduced or diverted military spending to address the pandemic.

 

  • The military burden in a majority of states increased in 2020.

 

  • Most countries used military assets, especially personnel, to support their responses to the outbreak of Covid-19.

 

The Largest Military Spenders in 2020

 

The USA increased its military spending for the third straight year to reach $778 billion in 2020, a 4.4 per cent increase since 2019 but a 10 per cent decrease since 2011.

 

China’s military expenditure is estimated at $252 billion in 2020, representing an increase of 1.9 per cent since 2019 and 76 per cent since 2011. Chinese spending has risen for 26 consecutive years. It is the longest streak of uninterrupted increases by any country in the SIPRI Military Expenditure Database.

 

India’s spending of $72.9 billion, an increase of 2.1 per cent in 2020, ranked it as the third highest spender in the world.

 

Russia’s total military spending was $61.7 billion. This was 2.5 per cent higher than in 2019, but 6.6 per cent lower than the initial budget for 2020.

 

The fifth biggest spender, the United Kingdom, raised its military expenditure by 2.9 per cent in 2020. This was the UK’s second highest annual growth rate in the period 2011–20, a decade that until 2017 was characterized by military spending cuts.

 

Main Exporters and Importers

 

Observations and Analysis

 

  • USA and China are the major influencers in military spending.

 

  • USA continues to be highest spender (way ahead of others including China), trying to retain its most powerful status.

 

  • China’s expenditure figure is 1/3rd of USA, but China could be spending more than it declares.

 

  • The trend of China’s expenditure (Continuous rise in its spending for last 26 years) shows her resolve to enhance her military power.

 

  • USA and China expenditure patterns indicate a beginning of second cold war.

 

  • Covid pandemic has reduced military expenditure in most of the countries.

 

  • India’s amount on military expenditure is although third highest in the world, but is 1/3rd of that of China and 1/10th of that of USA.

 

  • Russia although is trying to regain its lost glory but spending less on military, apparently due to financial constraints and development priorities.

 

  • Arms export is led by USA with major chunk of 37% export market.

 

  • Russia still has a foothold in the military export market with number two position with reasonable figure of 20%.

 

  • China figures in the both the lists of import and export at number 5 position with approximately 5% in both. However it is trying to capture more and more of world military market share.

 

  • India continues to maintain the dubious record of being at number two place in the defence imports list, behind Saudi Arabia.

 

Bottom Line

India cannot match China in defence expenditure.

 

Question

Will India be able to break its dependence on military imports?

 

Wild Thought

Maybe the unrest world over is sponsored by the arms industry.

 

Suggestions and value additions are most welcome

 

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INDO-RUSSIAN RELATIONS: US-Pak-China Factors

Russia – China relations: Indian Concerns

Pic courtesy:  The Economic Times

Russia – China Relations. Genesis of Russia China relations lies in their mutual needs. Post break up of erstwhile USSR financial health of Russia was not too good. China in neighbourhood, had the money but needed defence technology especially aviation related. This mutual need germinated into a relationship between the two countries. Further, Russia’s tighter embrace of China was result of a political and economic necessity in the face of Western efforts to internationally isolate it and impose sanctions. In the recent years, China has emerged as Russia’s key external partner, brought even closer due to their continued tensions with the US-led West. Russia sees China as a counterbalance to USA and source of much needed money. Russia has a lot at stake with China economically, Russia is the major source of China’s energy and defence acquisitions. Politically, they are aligned on a number of international issues. Like all international partnerships the China-Russia partnership is one of convenience.

Continue reading “INDO-RUSSIAN RELATIONS: US-Pak-China Factors”

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लाल टोपी रुसी – दिल हिन्दुस्तानी: Indo – Russian Relations

Indo-Russian Relations

 

 “special and privileged strategic partnership”

 

 Geography and Geopolitics have been binding Russia and India together in the past. However, in the world politics there are no permanent friends, only permanent interests and these also change with time. The deep, traditional and even “time-tested relations” shared for decades cannot be taken for granted. The premise of Indo-Russia relationship has undergone significant changes since the end of the Cold War. The strategic bond that existed between India and the Soviet Union is not the same as that with Russia and has been considerably diluted. Every country places its national interests above anything else, so does Russia. Russia may not be a partner at the earlier level and perhaps we should not expect it either. From the “special and privileged strategic partnership,” we appear to be moving towards a transactional relationship.

 

Defence Cooperation: India-Russia Strategic Partnership in Recess | Vivekananda International Foundation

Pic: Coutesy mapsofindia.com

Defence Cooperation. One of the strong pillar of India-Russia ties has is in the defence field. A close defence relationship with any country is based on trust which takes time to build. A critical issue is risk of interruption in supplies during conflict situations due to political reasons. Russia has been a tried and tested partner in this regard. Russia has been offering advanced defence equipment and sensitive military technologies. Almost 60 – 70 percent of equipment with India’s armed forces is of Russian origin. Sudden decoupling or complete switch to western equipment is not possible.

 

“We need to convert the extraordinary goodwill between India and Russia into a thriving, visible, vigorous, and mutually beneficial economic relationship”.

 

– Shri Atal Bihari Vajpayee

 

Importance of Relationship. Russia, of course, can no longer provide the kind of political and economic support to India as it did in the Cold War years. For India, Russia is a vital partner for energy security, and defence needs, willing to supply the “cutting-edge technology”. India-Russia relations have not been limited to energy and defence. While defence has been the strongest leg of the bilateral cooperation, there are several other areas in which the two countries cooperate – spanning culture, trade, transportation, education, science and technology, space and nuclear energy etc.

 

“Tolstoy and Gandhi had an indelible effect on each other. Let India and Russia make their relations better by taking inspiration from them. Let both the nations become bigger stakeholders in each other’s development,”

– Indian PM Shri N Modi

 

Way Ahead. India-Russia relations may not be as warm as they were during the Cold War, but both countries remain important for each other in the existing geopolitical scenario. Rapidly changing geo-political and geo-strategic dynamics presents significant challenges but also opportunities that India and Russia can leverage to further invigorate and intensify their relations to mutual advantage. Both the nations should view the relationship in a pragmatic manner, address their differences and divergences and identify fresh areas for cooperation. Many areas exist in which both countries can expand and deepen their relations for mutual benefit. Some suggestions are as follows:-

  • Cooperation could be enhanced in the high technology field including robotics, nanotechnology, artificial intelligence, space, nuclear energy, biotechnology and hydrocarbons,
  • Other areas of focus could include infrastructure, skill development, agriculture, shipbuilding, railways, aviation, pharmaceuticals, healthcare and deep sea exploration etc.
  • The two countries could cooperate effectively on regional and global issues in multilateral bodies.
  • Both should sustain and further reinforce dialogue at the highest as well as at Ministerial / Senior Official level.
  • Increase people-to-people connectivity, with special focus on the younger generation and cultural sphere. Regular cooperation with the Russian and Indian think tanks and joint publications would create better understanding of each other.

Comments and value additions are most welcome

 

Coming up : Other parts of the Equation

effect of Indo – US,  Russia – Pakistan and China – Russia relations

 

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References:

  1. https://www.lowyinstitute.org/the-interpreter/india-must-be-realistic-about-russia-relations
  2. https://theprint.in/opinion/india-russia-less-useful-to-each-other-now-disagreements-will-only-grow/621264/
  3. https://www.orfonline.org/research/india-russia-ties-in-a-changing-world-order-in-pursuit-of-a-special-strategic-partnership-56877/
  4. https://www.orfonline.org/expert-speak/india-russia-relations-in-a-post-covid-world/
  5. https://thediplomat.com/2020/12/india-russia-relations-face-more-trouble/
  6. https://www.sundayguardianlive.com/opinion/isnt-yet-time-write-obituary-india-russia-ties
  7. https://indianembassy-moscow.gov.in/70-years-of-india-russia-relations-a-historic-milestone.php