Tag: russia

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UKRAINE CRISIS: A GAME OF DOG AND THE BONE

Pic Courtesy: Aljazeera

Ukraine, since independence in 1991 has been torn between its former Soviet masters (Russia) and the Western institutions (NATO) it wants to join.

 

Historical Background

Independence. In December 1991, Ukraine voted in favour of independence from the Soviet Union in a referendum. Russian President Boris Yeltsin accepted the vote and Russia, Ukraine and Belarus set up a Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS).

(Process of fall of the mighty Russian empire – USSR)

 

Agreement. In the aftermath of the end of the Cold War, Ukraine, Russia, the UK and the US in December 1994 agreed to respect the independence, sovereignty and borders of Ukraine. The agreement was in exchange for Ukraine abandoning the nuclear weapons it inherited from the Soviet Union.

(Action justified as it was required to control Nuclear Proliferation.)

 

Friendship Treaty. In May 1997 Russia and Ukraine signed a friendship treaty. It settled a key disagreement and allowed Russia to retain ownership of the majority of ships in the Black Sea fleet (based in Ukraine’s Crimea) in exchange of Moscow paying Kyiv a modest rent to use the port of Sebastopol. Moscow also remained Kyiv’s most important commercial partner, with Ukraine totally dependent on Russian oil and gas.

(Treaty heavily in favour of Russia – but Ukraine had to accept it)

 

Economic Push and Pull.

In 2003, Ukraine signed an accord with Russia, Belarus and Kazakhstan on a Common Economic Space. Western bloc showed displeasure indicating that these actions could hinder Ukraine’s rapprochement with the bloc and its membership to the World Trade Organization.

(Economic factors are big drivers of the geopolitics and foreign affairs).

 

Russia and Ukraine were engaged in several disputes, notably over gas in 2006 and 2009 which disrupt Europe’s energy supplies.

(Wheels within wheels)

 

Main Bone Of Contention

Perceiving the CIS as an attempt to bring ex-Soviet republics under Moscow’s control, Ukraine always takes a lukewarm approach to it. Its tilt is towards the West and it seeks ties with the US-led NATO military alliance.

(This is not palatable to Russia. The question is how far it would go to retain control of its erstwhile state)

 

Domestic See Saw

For 10 years under the leadership of Leonid Kuchma, Ukraine staggered between the Eastern and the western bloc.

 

Orange Revolution.  Ukraine’s 2004 presidential election was marred by fraud and the victory of the pro-Russian Viktor Yanukovych provoked unprecedented protests in the peaceful Orange Revolution.

(Classic case of one country meddling in the elections of another one).

 

Western Tilt and Push. The uproar led to the election results being cancelled and pro-Western opposition leader Viktor Yushchenko (who was the victim of a mysterious dioxin poisoning during the campaign), became president.  Yuschenko swiftly reiterated Ukraine’s wish to join the EU, along with NATO. In 2008 at a summit in Bucharest, NATO leaders agreed that Ukraine has a future in the alliance, sparking Moscow’s ire.

(Majority always prevails)

 

Eastern Attempt & Pro-European uprising. Yanukovych got elected as president in 2010, and in November 2013 he suspended the talks on a trade pact with the EU in favour of closer ties with Russia. This sparked a massive protest by pro-European opposition groups demanding that the pro-Russian president quits. The uprising, centred on Kyiv’s Independence Square, came to a head in February 2014 when police fired on the protesters. Around 100 demonstrators and 20 police officers died during the three-month uprising. Finally, Yanukovych fled to Russia and was impeached.

(Russian desperation to retain control is evident)

 

Annexation and War: Further Souring Of Relations.

Pic Courtesy: Internet

In 2014, Russia sent its Special Forces to take control of strategic sites on Ukraine’s Crimea peninsula. In March 2014 Russian President Vladimir Putin signed a treaty absorbing Crimea into Russia. The annexation provoked the worst diplomatic crisis between the West and Russia,  since the fall of the Soviet Union.

(Nibbling Starts)

 

Genesis of Current Crisis

In April 2014, a pro-Russian rebellion erupted in Ukraine’s industrial eastern areas. Pro-Russian separatists in Donetsk and Lugansk declare their regions to be independent. Ukraine and its Western allies accused Russia of instigating the uprising and pouring in arms and troops to bolster the self-proclaimed republics. The clashes became a full-blown conflict in May 2014. This conflict has left more than 14,000 people dead.

 

Present Situation

After massing tens of thousands of soldiers on Ukraine’s borders, Putin on February 21, 2022 recognises the independence of Donetsk and Lugansk.

 

Bottom Line

Russia seems to go to any length to retain control over its erstwhile states.

Russia seems to be following the Chinese policy of nibbling (The difference being instead of Salami slicing it is resorting to nibbling and gobbling up bigger chunks).

 

Question

Where will this East versus West clash of interest lead to?

When will this East versus West clash end?

 

Suggestions and value additions are most welcome

 

Links to previous posts on the subject:

RUSSIA – UKRAINE CRISIS ESCALATES (24 FEB 22)

Latest on Ukraine-Russia Conflict (23 Feb 22)

 

 

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Latest on Ukraine-Russia Conflict (23 Feb 22)

 

  • Over the past few months, Russia has stationed a large number of troops at the border between itself and Ukraine. This has raised concerns about invasion. Events have escalated in the past 24 hours.
  • (Muscle flexing for strategic coercion)

 

  • Reports suggest a witness saw tanks and other military hardware moving through the separatist-controlled city of Donetsk.
  • (Testing the waters and gradual escalation)

 

  • Russia’s President, Vladimir Putin, has said that he plans to sign a decree recognising two breakaway regions in eastern Ukraine as an independent.
  • (a move that would provide legitimacy for putting Russian boots in two regions of Ukraine).

 

  • UNSC assembles. In light of Putin’s announcement, the United Nations Security Council convened rapidly at the request of the United States, Britain, and France. Member nations have appealed and pleaded with Russia and asked Putin to step back.
  • (Multilateralism is still alive)

 

  • ​Sanctions galore. During the UNSC meeting, multiple nations announced plans to sanction Russia, with Britain’s representative saying there would be “far-reaching economic consequences if Russia doesn’t withdraw. 
  • (Have sanctions deterred in the past?) 

 

  • Britain. “Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has already begun, so Britain will impose sanctions on Russia,” a senior British minister said on Tuesday.
  • (Quick on the draw, US announcement on sanctions is still awaited)

 

Bottom Line

Humans can not stay in peace.

Multilateralism is still live.

 

 

Question

Will Russia invade Ukraine?

What will be China’s stand?

 

Suggestions and value additions are most welcome

 

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Hypersonic Long Range Weapons

Pic Courtesy: France 24

Emerging class of missile technologies include manoeuvrable vehicles that carry warheads through the atmosphere at more than five times the speed of sound. Hypersonic glide vehicles (HGVs), like all weapons delivered by medium and longer range rocket boosters, can travel at speeds of at least Mach 5, or about 1 mile per second. The key difference between missiles armed with HGVs and missiles armed with ballistic re-entry vehicles (i.e., those that travel on a ballistic trajectory throughout their flight) is not their speed, but their ability to manoeuvre and change course after they are released from their rocket boosters. Hypersonic weapons can be classified into two distinct categories:

  • Hypersonic cruise missiles. These operate much like typical sub-sonic and supersonic cruise missiles (using air-breathing engines to power themselves through the atmosphere) but fly at higher speeds. They cannot match the speeds or ranges achievable by boost-glide vehicles.

Pic Courtesy: PTs IAS Academy

  • Hypersonic boost-glide Vehicles. They are accelerated to extremely high velocities on rocket boosters similar to those used to launch ballistic missiles. They then proceed to glide, unpowered, through the upper atmosphere until reaching their target.

 

Pic Courtesy: Union of Concerned scientists

The flight of hypersonic boost-glide vehicle is divided into six stages: boost, ballistic, re-entry, pull-up, glide, and terminal phases. In the boost phase, a rocket booster accelerates the missile carrying the hypersonic vehicle until the booster exhausts its fuel, at which point it detaches from the glide vehicle and falls back to Earth. In the ballistic phase, the vehicle travels above the atmosphere on a ballistic trajectory under only the influence of gravity. Both of these phases are comparable to a ballistic missile launch. Hypersonic trajectories diverge from those of ballistic missiles in the re-entry and pull-up phases. Here, the vehicle pierces the upper atmosphere, then slows its descent to enter a stable glide trajectory. In the glide phase, the vehicle generates aerodynamic lift to sustain near-level flight. Finally, in the terminal phase, the glider dives toward its target.

 

These weapons outperform existing missiles in terms of delivery time and evasion of early warning systems. Their flight characteristics are distinct from those of typical ballistic missiles, which spend most of flight above the atmosphere and are capable of only limited manoeuvrability, and from those of subsonic or supersonic cruise missiles, which travel through the atmosphere but fly more slowly.

 

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