russia – Page 10 – Air Marshal's Perspective

March 9, 2022

Coming Up: Lessons form Air War in Ukraine

Pics Courtesy Internet (Youtube.com & timesofisrael.com)

It has been fourteen days since the war in Ukraine started.

Lot of action has taken place on ground and in the air.

Claims and counterclaims have been made.

Various actions (as well as non actions) have been analysed and opinions generated.

Reconciliatory tone from both sides is already being heard.

In spite of fog of war and media hyped propaganda there are lessons emerging.

Coming up ” Air war and Lessons”, under following headings.

Reported use of Air Power by Russia.

Reported Use of Air Power by Ukraine.

Reported losses and media narratives.

Concept of Air Superiority.

Concept of No Fly Zone.

Effect on Russian equipment with Indian Military.

Broad Security lessons.

Lessons related to warfare.

Lessons specific to use of Air Power.

March 2, 2022

UKRAINE CRISIS & INDIA (02 FEB 22)

The Russian attack on Ukraine has put India in a spot. New Delhi is facing demands from the West and Ukraine to condemn Russia while needing to preserve its changing, but still vital, relationship with Moscow.

Tight Rope Walk

India has good relations with both Russia and the US and siding with one of these countries could cost India its relationship with the other. India has to maintain its neutrality.

India along with China & UAE abstained when a resolution opposing the military Russian operation against Ukraine came up for a vote at the UN Security Council (UNSC).

Various reasons have been given for this decision. The fact remains India is not in a position to any sides. Ukraine is not happy with the Indian stand but even Ukraine has not supported India in the past.

Russia and USA have expressed that they understand the Indian stand probably due to their commercial interests in keeping India engaged.

Geo-Political Effects

This Crisis will strengthen the Russia – China relations.

Russia is already averse to the Indo-Pacific concept and the Quad as a revival of Cold War bloc politics and views them as being against its Asia-Pacific interests. This conflict will strengthen Russian opposition to these concepts and forums.

The two blocs i.e. eastern and western would take a more prominent shape. The tight rope walk for India will become more difficult.

Effect on Defence Deals

Russia has been a traditional military supplier sharing platforms and technologies that others wouldn’t. Russian hardware still accounts for approximately 60 – 70 per cent of India’s defence equipment, especially with respect to fighter jets, tanks, helicopters and submarines among others, while several major deals are in the pipeline. India requires a functioning supply chain relationship with Russia and Ukraine for spares and support, which is critical for its military.

Ukraine also plays a vital role as a supplier to India’s military, providing crucial subsystems for Russian systems.

With tensions escalating between Russia and the West over the Ukraine crisis, India, which has major defence cooperation with Moscow and also with Kyiv, faces uncertainty over timely deliveries.

Air Force

Ukraine and India were engaged in the process to upgrade the Indian Air Force’s fleet of over 100 Antonov An-32 transport aircraft. The Antonov upgrade programme was briefly disrupted by the conflict in Crimea in 2014.

After the Balakot air strike in 2019, the IAF made an emergency procurement of R-27 air-to-air missiles for its SU-30MKI fighters. At Aero India in February 2021, Ukraine signed four agreements, which includes the sale of new weapons as well as maintenance and the upgrade of the existing ones in service.

Delivery of the Russian S-400 AD Missile system is underway and India is expecting a waiver of U.S. sanctions on this. This conflict will complicate both the delivery of the system and the possibility of the US waiver.

Navy

The Indian Navy’s relationship with Ukraine is from the time of the USSR for dependence on ships and equipment. Ukraine’s Zorya Mashproekt supplies the crucial Marine gas turbine engines to the Indian Navy. Around 30 ships of the Indian Navy use these gas turbines. These ships include Veer class missile boats, Rajput class destroyers, Visakhapatnam class destroyers and frigates of the Russian-designed Admiral Grigorovich class.

Gas turbines are complicated systems and warships are designed around their engines. These engines are designed for specific features and cannot be replaced easily. Even some of the spare parts for the overhaul of these engines come from Ukraine. More spares would be required once the existing stock finishes. The conflict in Ukraine could lead to several complications for spares and new construction, including exorbitant costs for even simpler components and small parts.

In addition, Russia is manufacturing two stealth frigates for the Navy. They are to be delivered next year onwards, while another two are being manufactured by the Goa Shipyard Limited under technology transfer.

(Similar situation was faced when USSR broke up. Everything points towards need for being self-reliant in defence production).

Evacuation of Indians

India has a lot of students studying medicine in Ukraine. India is making effort to get them out.

Air India has been flying special flights to evacuate the stranded Indian students. Four ministers are being sent to neighbouring countries to coordinate and facilitate the evacuation. Even the Indian Air force has been asked to join in the effort.

(India has always been proactive in evacuating its citizens from problem areas. Indian Air Force has been at the forefront in this effort)

Over advertising of the evacuations creates a problem. The impression generated is that India’s only concern is to get Indians back. Further, it creates a problem for the diaspora abroad. Although the Indian flag on vehicles going towards border areas in Ukraine is being respected, however, some reports have emerged that Ukrainians are creating problems for them. This may be due to the feeling that India is not helping Ukraine.

(Similar impression was generated during the Nepal earthquake crisis. Most of the missions were for taking relief material to Nepal. Since aircraft were coming back empty, Indians wanting to return were accommodated. However, over highlighting of the evacuations created the impression that aircraft were being sent primarily for the evacuation of Indians).

Effect on Indian Students

Thousands of students from India study medicine in Ukraine. The reasons are:

- Degree costs a fraction of what it does in India.
- Paucity of seats in India.
- Global acceptance of MBBS degree from Ukraine.
- Opportunities in India on return.

Future of these students would be uncertain. Some of them would have already paid a large sum of money.

Effect on IT Industry

Though Indian IT companies don’t have large operations in Ukraine, they have big centres in Eastern European countries such as Hungary, Romania, Poland and the Czech Republic.

According to research firm ISG, about 50,000 tech workers and 200,000-odd technology freelancers in Ukraine could be affected by the crisis, and in turn, affect operations of tech companies around the world.

Disruptions due to cyber-attacks is another possibility.

The banning of mobile apps would be another factor to be considered.

As the Russia-Ukraine crisis escalates, India’s IT and business process management industry has to wait and watch.

Energy

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and subsequent Western sanctions will contribute to high oil and natural gas prices in the coming months. Global energy prices skyrocketed just hours after news broke of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

This will adversely impact the economy of major oil-consuming countries like India.

Question

What is the best way forward for India?

Suggestions and value additions are most welcome

Links to previous posts on the subject:

UKRAINE CRISIS: A GAME OF DOG AND THE BONE

RUSSIA – UKRAINE CRISIS BLOWS UP: 24 FEB 22

RUSSIA – UKRAINE CRISIS ESCALATES (24 FEB 22)

Latest on Ukraine-Russia Conflict (23 Feb 22)

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References and credits

To all the online news channels.

February 24, 2022

RUSSIA – UKRAINE CRISIS BLOWS UP: 24 FEB 22

Russian President Vladimir Putin orders Military Operation in Eastern Ukraine

Vladimir Putin has ordered a military operation in eastern Ukraine. Putin made the announcement in a televised speech.

Speech Highlights

Putin warned other countries that any attempt to interfere with the Russian action would lead to “consequences they have never seen.”
He blamed Ukraine for it and held the Ukrainian regime responsible for the bloodshed.
He also accused the US and its allies of ignoring Russia’s demand to prevent Ukraine from joining NATO.
He asked all Ukrainian servicemen to lay down arms and ensured their safe passage from the zone of combat.
Putin demanded that Ukraine accept Russian sovereignty over Crimea, which Russia annexed in 2014, and renounce its ambition of joining the North Atlantic Treaty Organization.

Ukraine claims a full-scale invasion by Russia

Russia has launched a full-scale invasion of Ukraine and is targeting cities with weapons strikes, Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba said in a tweet.

Ukraine reported rocket attacks on military facilities throughout Ukraine and that Russian troops had landed in the southern port cities of Odessa and Mariupol. Residents also reported hearing of artillery fire in the city’s eastern suburbs.

Explosions were heard before dawn in Ukraine’s capital Kyiv and the eastern port city of Mariupol, shortly after Russia’s President Vladimir Putin announced an operation to “demilitarise” the country.

Cyber Warfare. Ukraine earlier had reported that her banks and government ministry websites were hit by a cyber-attack, and it blamed Russia for it.

Russia claims that separatists have asked for help against Ukraine

According to Russia, Separatist leaders in eastern Ukraine have appealed to Russian President Vladimir Putin for help in repelling the military aggression of the Kyiv regime.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy has said that Putin had not responded to a request to speak by phone. He said Ukraine posed no threat to Russia but would defend itself if attacked.

Clash of the Titans

President Joe Biden has called the move “an unprovoked and unjustified attack by Russian military forces”. He accused Russia of choosing a premeditated war that will bring a catastrophic loss of life and human suffering, He held Russia responsible for the death and destruction this attack would bring. He declared that the US and its allies and partners will respond in a united and decisive way.

Market in a Turmoil

Markets have taken a hit after these developments. Oil prices have soared past $100 for the first time in more than seven years. Russian military operations have resulted in carnage on Dalal Street. Stocks are bleeding in the red and investors have lost up to Rs 10 lakh crore in market value. Stocks also fell across Asia, with equities declining in Australia, Japan, and South Korea.

Effect on India

The crude oil market, as well as gas prices, are set to spiral further and put pressure on major oil importers like India. Soaring global crude oil prices pose a challenge to India’s financial stability.

Evacuation. AI is operating special AI flights to evacuate Indian nationals, mainly students from Kyiv. Two flights have evacuated 254 and 182 nationals respectively. Ukraine has shut down its airspace for all civilian flights. Any more evacuation flights will depend on the conditions in that country.

Reactions

The European Union, U.K., and the U.S. have all imposed fresh sanctions on Russia U.S.

President Joe Biden has announced expanded sanctions, with penalties hitting the builder of the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline and Russia’s corporate leadership.

Ukraine has requested an urgent meeting of the UN Security Council.

The EU has strongly urged Russia to refrain from any further escalatory actions.

United Nations Secretary-General Antonio Guterres has made a plea to Russian President Vladimir Putin to stop the war ‘in the name of humanity and to pull back the Russian troops.