न्यूज़ टाइम चैनल के श्री दिनेश क वोहरा जी के साथ इंटरव्यू
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Indo Russia Relations
My answers to the questionnaire on the above subject
Published in the latest journal (Jun 21) of FPRC (Foreign Policy Research Centre)
Q1. Does Russia continue to be a “time-tested partner of India”? If this is not so, what does it need to correct the ‘perceptions’, and re-strengthen the link?
Indo – Russian Relations. Geography and Geopolitics have been binding Russia and India together in the past. However, in the world politics there are no permanent friends, only permanent interests and these also change with time. The deep, traditional and even “time-tested relations” shared for decades cannot be taken for granted. The premise of indo-Russia relationship has undergone significant changes since the end of the Cold War. The strategic bond that existed between India and the Soviet Union is not the same as that with Russia and has been considerably diluted. Every country places its national interests above anything else, so does Russia. Russia may not be a partner at the earlier level and perhaps we should not expect it either. From the “special and privileged strategic partnership,” we appear to be moving towards a transactional relationship.
India’s Grey Zone Threat Scenario.
India is a large and most diverse nation with two inimical neighbours.
India’s myriad problems provide innumerable opportunities for the belligerent adversaries to exploit in the grey zone.
The increased radicalisation in the neighbourhood has further opened up new grey spaces.
Grey zone tactics is being followed both by China and Pakistan using different means.
Pakistan.
Pakistan is using the low-cost option of grey zone tactics against India by promoting violent extremist groups.
These non-state actor groups get funding and training in Pakistan, to carry out irregular warfare against India.
The spectrum of anti-India grey zone warfare emanating from Pakistan is fairly wide ranging from disinformation and incitement to terrorism.
The grey zone activities of Pakistan include propaganda, false narratives, cyber warfare, and encouraging internal dissent to terrorism, to undermine the Indian national security.
China.
China is the master of grey zone operations.
This type of warfare is embedded in her philosophy, strategic thoughts and doctrines.
China has further mastered the art of converting and using anything and everything into a weapon for grey zone warfare.
China practices its famous three-warfare strategy, encompasses non-kinetic means like psychology, media and law warfare, to achieve political ends.
China has been using psychological warfare and coercion against India with the aim to subdue India without fighting.
Dealing Strategy.
India a large democratic and bureaucratic state is considered to be a weak spot for grey zone operations.
It will lose out if does not adapt to the changing nature of warfare.
India must prepare to deter China and Pakistan from extreme forms of grey zone aggression.
An important part of any grey zone response strategy is to undertake institutional reform.
These organisational and structural reforms, need to be embedded in the current structures, in a phased manner without causing too much of turbulence.
A word of caution that a change for the sake of change due to peer pressure needs to be avoided.
The change should be based on factors like our threat perception, technological threshold, economic conditions and geo-political environment.
India, must develop framework of strategic deterrence to deal with grey zone warfare.
More coming up on this subject
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