military capability – Page 54 – Air Marshal's Perspective

Recently US Defence Department Spokesperson John Kirby made a statement on recent military exercises conducted by the Chinese People’s Liberation Army near the island of Taiwan. John Kirby told reporters that the US commitment to Taiwan is “rock solid” and that “the US is united with Taiwan against the current danger posed by the People’s Republic of China.”

Also the official Twitter accounts of the US State Department posted photos and tweets of Under Secretary of State José Fernandez and Assistant Secretary of State for East Asian and Pacific Affairs Daniel Kritenbrink respectively meeting with Taipei Economic and Cultural “Representative” Bi-khim Hsiao, claiming that the US commitment to Taiwan remains rock-solid, and the US will further strengthen ties with Taiwan. Media reports said that the US has invited Hsu Yen-pu, Taiwan’s “Army Commander,” to visit the US.

Strong Chinese Reaction

Zhao Lijian, spokesperson of the Chinese Foreign Ministry reacted strongly to these developments. Gist of his rebuttal is as follows:-

Taiwan Island is China’s territory and the US is in no position to point fingers over the Taiwan question.

US has been making negative moves to sell arms to Taiwan and strengthen official and military ties with the island, including a $750 million arms sale plan, the landing of US military aircraft on the island and frequent sailing of US warships across the Taiwan Straits. These provocative actions damage China-US relations and undermine regional peace and stability.

The remarks by the US senior official seriously violate the one-China principle, sending an extremely wrong and irresponsible signal to the outside world.

“Taiwan independence” is a dead end, and the Chinese mainland will take all necessary measures to resolutely crush any attempt at “Taiwan independence.”

China’s resolve and will to safeguard national sovereignty and territorial integrity are firm and US should correct its mistakes and stop supporting secessionists in the island.

The embassy warned the US not to fantasise about seeking China’s support and cooperation while wantonly challenging China’s red line on the Taiwan question.

Analytical Thoughts

So far China and US are both shadow boxing over Taiwan issue.

It seems both are testing the waters and each other’s resolve.

It is like sumo wrestlers or boxers going round and round gauging each other, before engaging.

Besides verbal duels, once in a while the two sides resort to strategic coercion and muscle flexing.

The frequency of these acts is increasing.

Final engagement and result would depend upon – who wins the power race and world number one position.

Fate of Taiwan will determine the final result of the power race.

India has a breathing space, so long as China is preoccupied with Taiwan.

Our border dispute is still not resolved, with China claiming more and more.

If it is able to unify Taiwan, it will get encouraged to try it elsewhere.

Doubtful Thoughts

China is determined to unify Taiwan with the mainland.

Will China do it with its grey zone operations?

Will China use force to achieve her objective?

Will US fight for Taiwan?

When is this shadow boxing likely to escalate into actual engagement with throwing of punches?

Will the world get divided into two factions once again?

Will India be able to maintain policy of equidistance or get drawn towards one of the factions?

Random Thought

Western powers have been ruling the roost for a while.

Coming century is of the Asia.

Question

What will be India’s role, position and choices in this scenario?

Suggestions and value additions are most welcome

Link to the earlier blog on the subject (China vs Taiwan)

For regular updates, please register here

Subscribe

September 30, 2021December 27, 2024

201: MILITARY SPENDING: FACTS, TRENDS & ANALYSIS

Pic courtesy: military mortgage center

SIPRI (Stockholm International Peace Research Institute) is an independent international institute dedicated to research into conflict, armaments, arms control and disarmament. Established in 1966, SIPRI provides data, analysis and recommendations, based on open sources, to policymakers, researchers, media and the interested public.

SIPRI Yearbook 2021 has been published and it presents a combination of original data in areas such as world military expenditure, international arms transfers, arms production, nuclear forces, armed conflicts and multilateral peace operations.

Relevant extracts on military expenditure are given below:-

World Military Expenditure

The growth in total spending in 2020 was largely influenced by expenditure patterns in the United States and China.

World military expenditure is estimated to have been US$1981 billion in 2020. Total spending was 2.6 per cent higher than in 2019 and 9.3 per cent higher than in 2011.

Military spending increased in at least four of the world’s five regions is :-
• 5.1 per cent in Africa
• 4.0 per cent in Europe
• 3.9 per cent in the Americas
• 2.5 per cent in Asia and Oceania.

Impact of Covid-19

While the impact of the Covid-19 pandemic on military spending will become clearer in the coming years, general observations about its impact are as follows:-

Several countries are known to have reduced or diverted military spending to address the pandemic.

The military burden in a majority of states increased in 2020.

Most countries used military assets, especially personnel, to support their responses to the outbreak of Covid-19.

The Largest Military Spenders in 2020

The USA increased its military spending for the third straight year to reach $778 billion in 2020, a 4.4 per cent increase since 2019 but a 10 per cent decrease since 2011.

China’s military expenditure is estimated at $252 billion in 2020, representing an increase of 1.9 per cent since 2019 and 76 per cent since 2011. Chinese spending has risen for 26 consecutive years. It is the longest streak of uninterrupted increases by any country in the SIPRI Military Expenditure Database.

India’s spending of $72.9 billion, an increase of 2.1 per cent in 2020, ranked it as the third highest spender in the world.

Russia’s total military spending was $61.7 billion. This was 2.5 per cent higher than in 2019, but 6.6 per cent lower than the initial budget for 2020.

The fifth biggest spender, the United Kingdom, raised its military expenditure by 2.9 per cent in 2020. This was the UK’s second highest annual growth rate in the period 2011–20, a decade that until 2017 was characterized by military spending cuts.

Main Exporters and Importers

Observations and Analysis

USA and China are the major influencers in military spending.

USA continues to be highest spender (way ahead of others including China), trying to retain its most powerful status.

China’s expenditure figure is 1/3^rd of USA, but China could be spending more than it declares.

The trend of China’s expenditure (Continuous rise in its spending for last 26 years) shows her resolve to enhance her military power.

USA and China expenditure patterns indicate a beginning of second cold war.

Covid pandemic has reduced military expenditure in most of the countries.

India’s amount on military expenditure is although third highest in the world, but is 1/3rd of that of China and 1/10^th of that of USA.

Russia although is trying to regain its lost glory but spending less on military, apparently due to financial constraints and development priorities.

Arms export is led by USA with major chunk of 37% export market.

Russia still has a foothold in the military export market with number two position with reasonable figure of 20%.

China figures in the both the lists of import and export at number 5 position with approximately 5% in both. However it is trying to capture more and more of world military market share.