FUTURE CONFLICT SCENARIOS: IMPLICATIONS FOR IAF (PART 1)

Changes in warfare and implications

The contours of conventional war / conflict are changing and become more ambiguous and wide

Long drawn out conventional wars are a thing of the past due to diminished international acceptability of capture of territory & collateral damage and also increasing economic costs.

Terrorism, piracy and sectarian conflicts are extending the boundaries to grey zone, hybrid, sub-conventional conflicts in the ‘no peace, no war’ realm.

The battle space for war fighting is expanding (into multi domains) with compression of time.

Future conflicts are likely to be short, swift and intense engagements against a nuclear backdrop.

Future security challenges will be more and more complex, multi-dimensional and non-traditional in both kinetic and non-kinetic form.

Success would lie on the ability to act in the shortest possible time, inside the decision cycle of the adversary demanding very high level of real time situational awareness.

Regional / Local Scenario

Geopolitically Asia is the most war risk-prone region of the world.

India’s shares 6,917 kilometres of live borders with two nuclear armed hostile.

In recent past, the region has gone through frequent trigger incidents like Galwan Valley encroachment across the Line of Actual Control (LAC) and Doklam face-off with China, and frequent terror attack by terrorist groups based in Pakistan. These events could lead to a war or conflict.

China

China has emerged as a major regional power with aspiration to be a global power.

China’s desire to dominate Asia and finally the world has implications for India.

India’s relations with china are changing from cooperative to competitive to combative.

China also continues to enhance its strategic presence in the Indian Ocean Region.

Simultaneously China is investing in the Indian Ocean littoral countries to achieve a foot-hold and extend influence.

China would like to keep India off-balance.

China follows the philosophy of systems destruction warfare (i.e. disruption, paralyses or destruction of enemy operational systems).

Pakistan

Pakistan remains a security threat in all dimensions i.e. nuclear, conventional and sub-conventional.

Pakistan continues to be the epicentre of world terror. Pakistan would continue to use non-state actors to maintain a situation of unrest.

Asymmetric warfare will remain an instrument of its state policy. Pakistan’s strategy would continue to be wage proxy war and in the event of an escalation, use the nuclear card.

China – Pak Collusive Challenge

Chin’s increasing economic and political ties with Pakistan have an influence on the geostrategic balance of the region.

China has strategic interests in using Pakistani territory to reach West Asia and Africa for trade and geo-strategic positioning. It has invested in the China Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) that connects Xinjiang region in West China to the China-built-and-operated Gwadar port near Gulf of Hormuz.

China has helped Pakistan militarily including help to acquire technologies for its nuclear weapons and missile program.

In case of a conflict between India and Pakistan, China would posture along the northern and eastern border to keep the Indian military might divided and would also use its influence in the international forums to bring about a ceasefire at the earliest.

Pakistan openly boasts of collusive support from China in case of a war with India.

To be continued…

Link to Part 2

comments and value additions are most welcome.

March 5, 2021September 27, 2021

FIFTH GENERATION AIRCRAFT

Categorization of fighter jets in generations is a classification system used around the world. The basic classification into five generations is widely accepted and recognized. Some accounts have subdivided the 4th generation into 4 and 4.5, or 4+ and 4++.

Fifth generation jet fighters (2005 to date)

A fifth generation fighters include major technologies developed during the first part of the 21st century providing them a quantum improvement in their lethality and survivability. The characteristics of fifth-generation fighters are not universally agreed but as on date these are the most advanced fighters in operation.

The technologies that best epitomize fifth generation fighters are advanced integrated avionics systems that provide the pilot with a complete picture of the battle space and the use of low observable “stealth” techniques. They typically include agile airframes with super cruise performance, advanced avionics features, and highly integrated computer systems capable of networking with other elements within the battle space for situation awareness and C³ (command, control and communications) capabilities.

Improved situational awareness is achieved through multi-spectral sensors located across all aspects of the airframe which allows the pilot to ‘look’ through the airframe of the aircraft without having to manoeuvre the ﬁghter to obtain a 360 degree picture.

These aircraft also have capability of operating in networked environment which allows them to receive, share and store information to enhance the battle space picture. Fifth generation ﬁghter capabilities are largely deﬁned by their software and it will be the ongoing development of their software that will ensure they maintain their edge against evolving threats.

Ffth generation aircraft allows the pilot to maintain decision superiority over an adversary. This provides greater chances of survivability, which when combined with eﬀective lethality, assures battle space dominance.