Chinese J-31 aircraft for PAF

 

 

Inputs to Journalist  on the question of

Chinese J-31 aircraft for PAF: Should India be worried?

 

  • If and When. At the moment no clarity on the deal – numbers and timelines.

 

  • Doubts about Deal.
      • Affordability. Pakistan Money starved. 
      • China. Will China be willing to expose the aircraft and its actual capabilities to the world through Pakistan?

 

  • Marriage of convenience.
      • PAF needs modernisation urgently (F-16 and Mirage aircraft are old vintage and the West is not cooperative).
      • China needs to capture a share of the world market (Fighter aircraft – J-31 made as a cheaper option to US F-35, but no takers yet, not even PLAAF).

 

  • Advantage China.
      • Claim exportability of its aircraft.
      • Free trial ground – PAF.
      • Further control over Pakistan by increased reliance.

 

  • Advantage Pakistan.
      • Much-needed technology induction.
      • Boost to its AF and defence industry.

 

  • Aircraft Capability. As usual, China is very secretive about its actual capabilities vis-à-vis the claims.

 

 

  • Repercussions for India.
      • Unwelcome development.
      • Likely to be used against India.
      • Further strengthening of China-Pakistan defence cooperation and collusiveness.
      • Increase in Interoperability of PAF and PLAAF.

 

  • Mitigation.
      • Increase the deterrence value.
      • Enhance military (especially airpower) capability.
      • Spend more on defence.

 

  • To Do.
      • Keep a close watch on developments.
      • Monitor timelines.
      • Accelerate own indigenous projects (Tejas Mk 2 and AMCA).
      • Procure (Purchase) more Modern fighter aircraft.
      • Some analysts suggesting the US F-35 and Russian SU-57. Why add more types to an already diverse inventory?
      • Maybe go in for two more squadrons of already tested, selected and inducted Rafale aircraft.
      • Periodic review based on the progress of indigenous projects and developments in the enemy camp.

 

  • Bottom line.
    • Worry – NO.
    • Take cognisance – Yes.
    • Address the issue – Definitely.

 

Coming up: Detailed Article on the subject

 

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References and credits

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INPUTS TO JOURNALIST: RECENT DEFENCE PROCUREMENT

 

NEWS

The defence ministry has cleared acquisition proposals worth ₹2.23 lakh crore for the armed forces, including:-

97 additional light combat aircraft from HAL.

156 light combat helicopters from Hindustan Aeronautics Ltd (HAL).

A ₹65,000-crore plan to upgrade the mainstay Su 30MKI fighter jet fleet in service with the air force.

 

Q.  A multi-billion dollar acquisition was approved by DAC. But what is absent is the AoN for MRFA. Do you think the government sees the indigenous LCA Mk2 as a viable option instead of 114 MRFAs??

COMMENTS

  • Over the years the IAF capabilities have enhanced manifold.
  • It is the capacity (war endurance) that needs attention, strength of fighter and combat support platforms.
  • Overall the deterrence capability has not kept pace with the existing threat perception.
  • This aspect needs to be addressed urgently.
  • The government is aware of it and trying to address it.
  • Air platforms of the Air Force are technology-intensive, costly, and take time to procure.
  • While building up the capability and capacity, the most important thing to be kept in mind is that the required minimum deterrence value is to be maintained at all times (either by domestic production or by outside procurement.
  • The lesson from all the recent wars is that self-reliance in defence production is essential.
  • Another major factor to be considered is that a balance is to be maintained between the quality and quantity of platforms.
  • IAF has a drawdown mitigation plan, which is reviewed periodically.
  • The amount of money for defence spending is limited and the wish list is long.
  • The government must have taken a decision keeping all the above factors in mind.
  • They have given preference to the domestic defence industry to build up the numbers.

My recommendations are:-

  • While the domestic production of Tejas would cater to the numbers, there is a requirement for newer-generation multi-role aircraft to maintain a balanced force (till the domestic Tejas MkII and AMCA come up).
  • MRFA aircraft needs to be procured (maybe in the next instalment of defence spending).
  • These should be procured in phases (maybe two to three squadrons at a time.
  • This would spread the expenditure over some time and we would get later and better technology and features.
  • Keeping the diverse inventory of the IAF and the associated challenges it would be prudent to go in for more Rafael aircraft.

 

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Global Conflicts & Lessons for India’s Airpower

 

Observer Research Foundation (ORF), under it’s National Security Dialogues

organised a seminar on 26 Oct 23.

 

Subject – “Global Conflicts & Lessons for India’s Airpower”

 

 

Event Description: Over the last 18-months a plethora of debates have sprung in the aftermath of the Ukraine-Russia conflict and the Armenia-Azerbaijan war regarding the centrality of airpower in conflict. With the growing use of drones for offensive operations, new forms of air-defence systems being employed, and the minimal usage and impact of conventional fighter aircraft in these conflicts, there are many lessons for India’s airpower capacity as well.

 

So, what lessons can these changes and conflicts have on India’s airpower capacity? Is there a need for new doctrines to be incorporated by the Indian Air Force? What implications does the IAF’s depleting fighter aircraft squadron strength have on its capabilities?

 

Aspects discussed :-

    • Perspective on recent wars.
    • Centrality of Air Power.
    • Offensive use of Drones.
    • Changes in Air Defence.
    • Minimal use of Fighter aircraft.
    • Lessons drawn.
    • Need for new Doctrine.
    • Depleting strength of Fighter aircraft.
    • Balanced Force structure planning.
    • Defence production eco system.
    • Self reliance.
    • Importance of situational awareness and space based recce systems.

 

Interactive session was very interesting and question on following aspects were addressed:-

 

    • Duration and tempo of war.
    • Air balance vis-a-vis China.
    • IAF  training  and errors/mistakes.
    • Theaterisation and IAF.
    • Defence against sub con threat.
    • Future force structure.
    • Network-centric operations.
    • Chinese 5th gen ac.
    • Space force.
    • Drone utilisation issues.
    • Ballistic missile defence.

 

Enjoyed the interaction as a panelist.

 

To view the event, please click on the link below :-

 

 

For Q&A coverage please click on the links below:-

 

Q & A 1 :-

 

 

Q & A 2 :-

 

 

Q & A 3 :-

 

 

Q & A 4 :-

 

 

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