541: COLD WAR REDUX: TRAITS AND DRIVERS OF COLD WAR 2.0

 

 

My Article published on the Indus International Research Foundation website on 27 Nov 24.

 

“Cold War 2.0” describes the re-emergence of intense geopolitical competition between major powers, mainly the U.S. and China, and Russia’s increasingly assertive foreign policy. This framework parallels the original Cold War, which saw the United States and the Soviet Union locked in ideological and strategic rivalry. However, the current scenario has distinctive traits shaped by global interconnectedness, economic interdependence, and digital warfare.

 

Economic Interdependence and Competition. Unlike the U.S.-Soviet rivalry, the current era is marked by deep financial ties between rival states. For instance, the U.S. and China have significant trade and investment links, creating a complex relationship between competitors and economic partners. This has led to policies like “decoupling” and “friend-shoring,” where nations look to limit economic dependencies with strategic rivals, especially in critical sectors like technology and energy.

 

Tech and Cyber Dominance. The competition now prominently features digital spaces and technological development. China’s rise in artificial intelligence, 5G networks, and quantum computing has led the U.S. and its allies to push for greater control over digital infrastructure and intellectual property. Cyber security is another battlefield, with accusations of hacking and surveillance shaping security policies and alliances.

 

Military Posturing and Arms Races. The military build-up is also central to Cold War 2.0. While nuclear capabilities remain crucial, the focus has expanded to space warfare, hypersonic missiles, and advanced drone technology. For example, the U.S. Indo-Pacific Strategy counters China’s growing military influence in Asia. At the same time, Russia’s recent actions in Ukraine have led NATO to strengthen its military presence on Europe’s eastern flank.

 

Ideological Clashes. While less ideological than the original Cold War, there is a growing divergence between the democratic and authoritarian governance models, particularly as China promotes its model as an alternative to Western liberalism. This has led to ideological contestation in digital governance, human rights, and trade rules, with each power attempting to influence international norms and institutions to reflect its values.

 

Strategic Alliances and Blocs. The current rivalry sees the emergence of new alliances and a revival of older ones, such as NATO and the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue (Quad) among the U.S., Japan, India, and Australia, which aims to counterbalance China’s influence in the Indo-Pacific. Similarly, China and Russia are strengthening their ties, often working together in the United Nations and other forums to counter Western initiatives.

 

Resource Control and Economic Leverage. Access to resources such as rare earth metals, energy, and food is another area of strategic competition. China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), which funds infrastructure projects across Asia, Africa, and Latin America, is seen as expanding its influence by creating economic dependencies. The U.S. counters with its initiatives, such as the Build Back Better World (B3W) program, which offers alternatives for development financing.

 

Impacts on Global Relations. The emergence of Cold War 2.0 has led to shifting alliances, with some nations choosing sides and others attempting a non-aligned approach to maintain autonomy. Middle powers like India, Brazil, and South Africa find themselves balancing between the two giants, shaping new multilateral dynamics. Meanwhile, the increased emphasis on national security in trade and technology policies is reshaping globalisation, potentially leading to more isolated economic blocs.

 

Comparison of Drivers of the Earlier and Current Cold War

 

The drivers of the original Cold War (1947–1991) between the U.S. and the Soviet Union differ from those of today’s “Cold War 2.0,” primarily between the U.S. and China, with Russia playing a significant but secondary role. These geopolitical, ideological, and technological rivalries reveal continuities and marked differences.

 

Sl No Drivers Differences
1 Ideological Rivalry

Earlier Cold War: The U.S. and the Soviet Union were divided by sharply contrasting ideologies: capitalism and democracy versus communism and authoritarianism. Each superpower sought to promote its ideology globally, often through proxy wars, propaganda, and cultural influence campaigns.

Current Cold War: Although there’s still an ideological component, the divide is less rigid. The U.S. advocates liberal democracy, while China’s governance model blends authoritarianism and state-led capitalism. Rather than openly promoting its ideology as a direct alternative, China emphasises economic development and “pragmatic” governance as models for stability and growth. There’s less overt ideological export and more influence through economic interdependence and development projects like the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI).

2 Geopolitical Power Struggles

 

Earlier Cold War: The rivalry largely revolved around Europe, with proxy conflicts extending to Asia, Latin America, and Africa. The focus was to prevent either side from gaining influence in these regions, as seen through U.S. and Soviet interventions in Korea, Vietnam, Afghanistan, and other hotspots.

Current Cold War: The U.S. and China focus on the Indo-Pacific region as the primary sphere of influence, with attention to Southeast Asia, Taiwan, and the South China Sea. The U.S. is strengthening alliances with Japan, Australia, India (QUAD), and other Indo-Pacific partners, while China is extending its influence through its BRI and increasing its military presence in disputed territories. Russia, meanwhile, has focused on asserting control in Eastern Europe, as seen in the Ukraine conflict, though this rivalry is more geographically constrained.

3 Economic Rivalry and Interdependence

 

Earlier Cold War: The U.S. and Soviet Union had limited economic interactions, creating two largely independent blocs. Economic influence was exerted through aid programs (like the U.S. Marshall Plan) and political-economic treaties with allied countries. Global trade and economies were less intertwined, allowing for distinct capitalist and socialist economic systems.

Current Cold War: Economic interdependence is a defining factor. China and the U.S. are each other’s largest trading partners, and both economies are deeply embedded in global supply chains. Despite economic competition, each depends heavily on the other. This dynamic has led to “selective decoupling,” where each side aims to reduce dependence on critical technologies and resources without severing all economic ties. This is especially prominent in sectors like semiconductors, 5G, and renewable energy technologies.

4 Technology and Cyber Warfare

 

Earlier Cold War: The technological competition focused on space, nuclear capabilities, and conventional military technology. The “Space Race” and “Arms Race” were significant components, with the Apollo moon landing and arms treaties like SALT (Strategic Arms Limitation Talks) symbolising the intense scientific and military rivalry.

Current Cold War: The focus has shifted to advanced technologies like artificial intelligence (AI), quantum computing, and cyber security. Cyber warfare has become a core area of conflict, with cyber-attacks, espionage, and influence operations playing significant roles. There’s competition for dominance in 5G networks and critical infrastructure control, with concerns about digital sovereignty, surveillance, and influence operations on social media. This “Tech Race” lacks the clear-cut technological “wins” of the Space Race, but it’s arguably more pervasive and impactful on civilian and governmental life worldwide.

5 Military Strategies and Posturing

 

Earlier Cold War: The focus was on nuclear arms buildup and deterrence through Mutually Assured Destruction (MAD), with proxy wars to avoid direct confrontation. NATO and the Warsaw Pact were established, and military posturing often involved nuclear tests, displays of military hardware, and highly symbolic confrontations (e.g., the Cuban Missile Crisis).

Current Cold War: While nuclear deterrence remains, military competition now involves a broader range of strategies, including space militarisation, hypersonic missile development, and significant advancements in drone and cyber warfare. China is focused on expanding its naval capabilities and power projection in the South China Sea, while the U.S. strengthens its presence in the Indo-Pacific. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has led to a renewed focus on NATO’s defensive posture in Europe.

6 Alliances and Proxy Conflicts

 

Earlier Cold War: Alliances like NATO and the Warsaw Pact formalised the division of East and West. Many proxy conflicts emerged, particularly in developing regions, where both superpowers supported opposing sides to prevent ideological shifts. Examples include the Korean and Vietnam Wars and the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan.

Current Cold War: Alliances are less rigid, and there’s an emphasis on “flexible” partnerships. The U.S. builds security frameworks like the Quad and AUKUS (Australia, the U.K., and the U.S.) while strengthening alliances like NATO. China, meanwhile, does not engage in formal military alliances but leverages economic influence through the BRI and diplomatic coalitions like the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO). Russia uses its influence in post-Soviet states and controls Eastern Europe and the Middle East.

7 Propaganda and Influence Operations

 

Earlier Cold War: The U.S. and Soviet Union engaged in direct propaganda campaigns, including Radio Free Europe, cultural exchanges, and global information wars to win hearts and minds.

Current Cold War: Information warfare is more complex and digital. Social media platforms have become battlegrounds for influence, with disinformation campaigns, election interference, and social polarisation strategies targeting rivals. China and Russia conduct sophisticated operations, leveraging global media channels, online platforms, and soft power to shape narratives. The U.S., in turn, supports global media initiatives that promote democratic governance and transparency.

 

Cold War 2.0 has introduced new complexities into international relations, where intertwined economies, advanced technology, and a globalised world order shape competition. The drivers of today’s “Cold War 2.0” reflect a multi-dimensional competition that diverges from the earlier Cold War in its deep economic interdependence, technology-centric rivalry, and more fluid alliances. The ideological divide is softer but still significant, with the U.S., China, and Russia vying for global influence. This rivalry unfolds in a digitally connected world where technology and information warfare play unprecedented roles, resulting in a complex geopolitical landscape with intensified tensions and interdependencies. Unlike the bipolar world of the original Cold War, today’s scenario is multipolar, involving several influential states that resist being drawn entirely into either camp. The result is a fluid, high-stakes environment that demands careful diplomacy and strategic restraint.

 

Your valuable comments are most welcome.

 

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References and credits

To all the online sites and channels.

References:

  1. George Takach. “Cold War 2.0: The Battle Between Democracies and Autocracies.” The Diplomat, June 2024.
  1. Ferguson, Niall. “The Rise of Cold War II.” Milken Institute Global Conference, May 2022.
  1. Mayer, Maximilian, and Kavalski, Emilian. “Cold War 2.0 and European Security.” Intereconomics Journal, July 2022.
  1. Traub, James. “A New Non-Aligned Movement in a Divided World.” Foreign Policy, July 2022.
  1. Bishara Marwan. “And so, Cold War II begins”, Al Jazeera, 24 February 2022.
  1. Westad Odd Arne “Has a New Cold War Really Begun?”, Foreign Affair, 09 February 2019.
  1. Smith Nicholas Ross, “A New Cold War: Assessing the Current US-Russia Relationship”, Wayback Machine. Springer, 23 March 2021.
  1. Woodward Jude, “The US Vs China: Asia’s New Cold War? Manchester University Press, 2017.
  1. Zhao Minghao, “Is a New Cold War Inevitable? Chinese Perspectives on US-China Strategic Competition”. The Chinese Journal of International Politics, 2019.
  1. Willy Wo-Lap Lam, “The New Cold War that Threatens to Turn Hot”, The Jamestown Foundation 2023.

Disclaimer:

Information and data included in the blog are for educational & non-commercial purposes only and have been carefully adapted, excerpted, or edited from reliable and accurate sources. All copyrighted material belongs to respective owners and is provided only for wider dissemination.

540: CANADA-INDIA TENSION: SPOTLIGHT ON THE FIVE EYES ALLIANCE

 

Canada-India Tension: Spotlight On The Five Eyes Alliance (by Air Marshal Anil Khosla)

 

My Article published on the Indus International Research Foundation website on 27 Nov 24.

 

The recent diplomatic tensions between Canada and India have drawn significant attention to the role of the Five Eyes alliance, which includes Canada, the United States, the United Kingdom, Australia, and New Zealand. This situation escalated after Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau alleged that Indian agents were involved in the assassination of Hardeep Singh Nijjar, a Canadian citizen and prominent Sikh activist, in June 2023. Following Trudeau’s allegations, Canada sought the support of its Five Eyes allies, who shared intelligence related to the case. Trudeau’s accusations have prompted responses from the other Five Eyes nations, as they are critical partners in intelligence sharing and security collaboration. The diplomatic row has brought the spotlight to the five-eye alliance.

 

Five Eye Alliance.

 

The Five Eyes alliance is one of the world’s most comprehensive and collaborative intelligence-sharing agreements. It was formed after World War II and comprises five English-speaking countries: Australia, Canada, New Zealand, the United Kingdom, and the United States. The alliance has evolved over the decades, adapting to new global threats and changing geopolitical landscapes. Studying the origin, structure, operations, and significance of the Five Eyes alliance in contemporary international relations and security would be worthwhile. The Five Eyes alliance has historically focused on national security and counterterrorism intelligence, particularly regarding threats from states like China and global terrorism issues.

 

Origins of the Five Eyes Alliance. The Five Eyes alliance’s origins can be traced back to World War II when the United Kingdom and the United States began cooperating on intelligence matters. The groundwork for the alliance was laid with the signing of the UKUSA Agreement in 1946, which formalised the collaboration between the United States and the UK on signals intelligence (SIGINT). The agreement soon expanded to include Australia, Canada, and New Zealand, establishing the Five Eyes alliance as we know it today. The alliance’s primary objective has always been to facilitate intelligence sharing and cooperation among member countries, particularly in the realm of signals intelligence. This collaboration has proven invaluable in addressing common security threats, including the rise of communism during the Cold War and the ongoing fight against terrorism.

 

Structure of the Five Eyes Alliance. The Five Eyes alliance operates without a formal organisational structure or treaty, allowing flexibility and adaptability in intelligence-sharing practices. Each member country maintains its intelligence agencies but works closely together to exchange information and conduct joint operations. While each agency operates independently, it adheres to shared principles and guidelines governing its cooperation. These principles prioritise protecting national security, safeguarding civil liberties, and maintaining the confidentiality of shared intelligence. The primary agencies involved in the alliance are:-

    • Government Communications Security Bureau (GCSB) – New Zealand.
    • Australian Signals Directorate (ASD) – Australia.
    • Communications Security Establishment (CSE) – Canada.
    • Government Communications Headquarters (GCHQ) – United Kingdom.
    • National Security Agency (NSA) – United States.

 

Operations and Activities. The Five Eyes alliance primarily focuses on signals intelligence (SIGINT), which involves intercepting and analysing communications, including electronic and radio signals. The member countries use advanced technology, human intelligence (HUMINT), and open-source intelligence (OSINT) to collect and analyse. Their critical Operations include:-

 

    • Counterterrorism. Counterterrorism is one of the most critical areas of cooperation among the Five Eyes nations. Following the September 11 attacks in 2001, the alliance enhanced its intelligence-sharing capabilities to identify and thwart terrorist threats. The combined efforts of the Five Eyes have led to numerous successful operations aimed at disrupting terrorist plots and networks.
    • Cyber security. In recent years, the rise of cyber threats has prompted the alliance to expand its focus beyond traditional intelligence gathering to include cyber security. The Five Eyes countries collaborate on identifying and responding to cyber-attacks, sharing best practices and intelligence to bolster their collective defences.
    • Foreign Interference. The Five Eyes alliance has also been instrumental in addressing foreign interference in domestic affairs. The member countries share intelligence related to espionage and influence operations, particularly those attributed to state actors such as China and Russia. This cooperation has been crucial in safeguarding the integrity of democratic institutions and processes.

 

Challenges in Operations. While the Five Eyes alliance has proven effective in many areas, it also faces challenges. One significant issue is balancing national security interests with civil liberties. Intelligence-sharing practices can sometimes lead to concerns about privacy and surveillance, prompting calls for greater transparency and oversight. Moreover, as technology evolves, so do the methods employed by adversaries to evade detection. The emergence of encryption, for example, poses challenges for intelligence agencies seeking to access crucial communications. The Five Eyes nations must continually adapt their strategies and technologies to counter these evolving threats.

 

The Significance of the Five Eyes Alliance. By working together, the Five Eyes nations have established practices and protocols that enhance the effectiveness of intelligence operations. By sharing intelligence and resources, the Five Eyes nations can address common threats more effectively than they could individually. The alliance plays a crucial role in maintaining security by facilitating cooperation among its member nations.  The Five Eyes alliance enhances the geopolitical influence of its member countries. By collaborating on intelligence matters, these nations can unite against common adversaries and promote shared values, such as democracy and the rule of law. The Five Eyes alliance serves as a model for other countries seeking to establish similar intelligence-sharing agreements. The member countries often collaborate with non-member nations on specific intelligence matters, further strengthening international security cooperation.

 

Future Outlook. In recent years, the Five Eyes alliance has adapted to address new security challenges, including cyber security threats and the rise of authoritarian regimes. The 2020 Five Eyes Joint Statement on Cyber security underscored the commitment of member countries to enhance their collective cyber security capabilities and protect critical infrastructure. The alliance has also expanded its focus on addressing emerging technologies, such as artificial intelligence and quantum computing, which pose opportunities and risks to national security. The member countries recognise that staying ahead of technological advancements is crucial for maintaining their intelligence edge. The Five Eyes alliance will likely face new challenges as global geopolitical dynamics shift. For example, China’s rise as a strategic competitor has prompted the member countries to re-evaluate their intelligence priorities and strengthen their cooperation.

 

Five Eyes Alliance Navigating the Canada-India Tension

 

The Five Eyes alliance is currently facing significant challenges as it navigates the diplomatic tensions between Canada and India. As the allegations emerged, the other members of the Five Eyes alliance, namely the United States, the United Kingdom, Australia, and New Zealand, quickly supported Canada. U.S. officials emphasised the seriousness of the allegations and called for India to cooperate with Canada’s investigation. Similarly, the U.K. and Australia reiterated their commitment to Canada and the importance of respecting the rule of law. This unified front underscores the alliance’s principle of mutual support, but it also complicates relations with India, which is increasingly pivotal in geopolitical discussions.

 

The core mission of the Five Eyes Alliance revolves around intelligence sharing, especially regarding national security. However, the allegations of Indian involvement in Nijjar’s killing require a careful approach to avoid further escalating tensions. The situation raises questions about the effectiveness of intelligence cooperation, primarily as member nations work to address their respective security concerns while maintaining strong diplomatic ties with India.

 

The friction between Canada and India poses broader implications for the Five Eyes alliance. While Canada seeks to investigate the allegations against India, the alliance must navigate its strategic interests in South Asia, including counterterrorism and trade. India’s significant regional influence and its role as a counterbalance to China further complicate the dynamics of this situation.

 

Conclusion. The Five Eyes alliance remains a cornerstone of international intelligence cooperation, significantly contributing to the security of member countries. Currently, it is facing the challenge of balancing the collective security interests of all member states and maintaining cooperative relations with its new partner and ally. How the coalition handles this situation will likely impact its cohesion and future strategies for dealing with similar geopolitical challenges.​

 

Your valuable comments are most welcome.

 

Link to the article:

https://indusresearch.in/canada-india-tension-spotlight-on-the-five-eyes-alliance/

 

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References and credits

To all the online sites and channels.

References:

  1. Andrew, C. (2010). The Secret World: A History of Intelligence. London: HarperPress.
  1. Australian Security Intelligence Organisation (ASIO). (2019). Annual Report 2019-2020. Retrieved from ASIO.gov.au.
  1. Chertoff, M. (2008). Protecting Cyber Space in the New Homeland Security Environment. Washington, D.C.: The Chertoff Group.
  1. Five Eyes. (2020). Five Eyes Joint Statement on Cybersecurity. Retrieved from gov.uk.
  1. Five Eyes. (2021). Five Eyes Nations Commitment to Counterterrorism. Retrieved from gov.uk.
  1. Sullivan, J. (2021). Remarks on the Future of the Five Eyes Alliance. Washington, D.C.: The White House.
  1. Turnbull, M. (2017). Australia’s National Security. Retrieved from pm.gov.au.
  1. “Five Eyes Alliance And The Nijjar Killing Case”, Outlook Web Desk, 15 October 2024.
  1. Anita Joshua, “Five Eyes allies rally around Canada in a diplomatic standoff with India over Nijjar killing”, The Telegraph Online, 17 Oct 24.

 

Disclaimer:

Information and data included in the blog are for educational & non-commercial purposes only and have been carefully adapted, excerpted, or edited from reliable and accurate sources. All copyrighted material belongs to respective owners and is provided only for wider dissemination.

 

534: CHINA PLUS ONE STRATEGY: DRAGON’S LOSS IS OTHER’S GAIN

 

The “China Plus One” (C+1) strategy refers to a diversification approach adopted by businesses to reduce reliance on China as a manufacturing and supply chain hub. Under this strategy, companies maintain a strong presence in China but establish operations in at least one other country to mitigate risks associated with over-dependence on China.

 

Drivers of the C+1 Strategy

 

    • Trade Tensions: Escalating trade wars, especially between the U.S. and China, have made companies cautious about relying solely on China.
    • Geopolitical Risks: Concerns about political instability, regulatory unpredictability, and strained diplomatic relations involving China.
    • Rising Costs: Labor and operational costs in China have been increasing, pushing companies to explore cost-competitive alternatives.
    • Supply Chain Disruptions: Events like the COVID-19 pandemic and associated lockdowns exposed vulnerabilities in concentrated supply chains.
    • Regulatory Pressures: Governments and businesses are encouraging a shift from China to diversify global production.

 

Key Destinations for “Plus One”.

Countries in South and Southeast Asia are among the top beneficiaries of this strategy, offering cost-competitive environments, favourable trade policies, and geographical proximity to China. These include:

    • Vietnam: Strong manufacturing base, trade agreements, and proximity to China.
    • India: Large workforce, growing infrastructure, and government incentives for foreign investment.
    • Thailand: Well-developed logistics and supply chain networks.
    • Malaysia, Indonesia, and the Philippines: Emerging hubs with improving manufacturing capabilities.

 

Benefits of the C+1 Strategy:

    • Risk Mitigation: Reduces the impact of disruptions like tariffs, sanctions, or natural disasters.
    • Cost Optimisation: Allows companies to capitalise on lower operational costs in emerging markets.
    • Market Diversification: Expands access to other growing economies in Asia and beyond.
    • Resilience: Builds a more robust and flexible supply chain.

 

Challenges

    • Logistical Complexity: Managing multi-country operations can complicate supply chain logistics.
    • Infrastructure Gaps: Emerging countries often need more of China’s sophisticated infrastructure.
    • Skilled Labour Availability: Matching China’s manufacturing expertise may be challenging.
    • Policy and Bureaucratic Hurdles: Alternative countries’ regulatory environments may need more stability and efficiency.

 

Your valuable comments are most welcome.

 

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Disclaimer:

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