Chinese J-31 aircraft for PAF

 

 

Inputs to Journalist  on the question of

Chinese J-31 aircraft for PAF: Should India be worried?

 

  • If and When. At the moment no clarity on the deal – numbers and timelines.

 

  • Doubts about Deal.
      • Affordability. Pakistan Money starved. 
      • China. Will China be willing to expose the aircraft and its actual capabilities to the world through Pakistan?

 

  • Marriage of convenience.
      • PAF needs modernisation urgently (F-16 and Mirage aircraft are old vintage and the West is not cooperative).
      • China needs to capture a share of the world market (Fighter aircraft – J-31 made as a cheaper option to US F-35, but no takers yet, not even PLAAF).

 

  • Advantage China.
      • Claim exportability of its aircraft.
      • Free trial ground – PAF.
      • Further control over Pakistan by increased reliance.

 

  • Advantage Pakistan.
      • Much-needed technology induction.
      • Boost to its AF and defence industry.

 

  • Aircraft Capability. As usual, China is very secretive about its actual capabilities vis-à-vis the claims.

 

 

  • Repercussions for India.
      • Unwelcome development.
      • Likely to be used against India.
      • Further strengthening of China-Pakistan defence cooperation and collusiveness.
      • Increase in Interoperability of PAF and PLAAF.

 

  • Mitigation.
      • Increase the deterrence value.
      • Enhance military (especially airpower) capability.
      • Spend more on defence.

 

  • To Do.
      • Keep a close watch on developments.
      • Monitor timelines.
      • Accelerate own indigenous projects (Tejas Mk 2 and AMCA).
      • Procure (Purchase) more Modern fighter aircraft.
      • Some analysts suggesting the US F-35 and Russian SU-57. Why add more types to an already diverse inventory?
      • Maybe go in for two more squadrons of already tested, selected and inducted Rafale aircraft.
      • Periodic review based on the progress of indigenous projects and developments in the enemy camp.

 

  • Bottom line.
    • Worry – NO.
    • Take cognisance – Yes.
    • Address the issue – Definitely.

 

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CENTRALISED vis-a-vis DECENTRALISED

 

Centralised Planning and Decentralised Execution

 

These are fundamental concepts that have evolved over decades of aerial employment and are often applied to air warfare.

 

These terms refer to the method of decision-making, formulation, and execution of plans.

 

Effective air warfare often involves a combined approach, where centralised planning is integrated with decentralised execution.

 

Air operations need to be centrally controlled, to achieve advantageous synergies, establish effective priorities, capitalise on unique strategic and operation flexibility, ensure unity of purpose, and minimise the potential for competing objectives.

 

Execution of air missions should be decentralised to achieve effective spans of control, responsiveness, and tactical flexibility.

 

This approach leverages the strengths of both concepts, allowing for strategic coherence while maintaining the agility required for effective tactical operations.

 

Robust communication, information-sharing mechanisms, and feedback loops are essential for highly dynamic air warfare. 

 

These facilitators allow the decentralised units to have access to requisite information so that they can adjust their plans as needed while remaining aligned with the overall strategy.

 

The feedback helps higher formations to refine plans and adjust strategies based on the evolving operational environment.

 

Centralised Planning. 

 

Centralised planning involves the coordination of various resources, including aircraft, personnel, intelligence, and logistics.

 

The allocation of resources, including aircraft types, munitions, and support assets, is typically managed centrally to optimise their use in achieving strategic objectives.

 

In a centrally planned approach, decision-making authority is concentrated at higher levels of command, typically within centralised headquarters or strategic planning centers.

 

High-ranking commanders are responsible for formulating strategic objectives, mission plans, and overall campaign strategies.

 

The central command structure ensures that all elements of air power are aligned with the overarching strategic goals.

 

The centralised planning process allows for the development of a coherent strategic vision that considers long-term objectives, and the alignment of air assets with broader military and political goals.

 

Decentralised Execution.

 

Once the overall plan is formulated, decentralised execution is carried out by delegating authority to lower echelons of command.

 

Tactical decisions are often made at the operational and tactical levels, closer to the point of engagement.

 

Decentralised execution allows for greater adaptability and flexibility in responding to dynamic and rapidly changing situations, and emerging opportunities or threats.

 

Local commanders have the autonomy to make real-time decisions based on the evolving circumstances on the battlefield.

 

Resource Allocation. 

 

Providing resources (platforms, sensors, and weapons) to the command headquarters for fighting the air war is the responsibility of the service headquarters.

 

These resources are allotted ab initio, and reallocation is done during the war depending on the situation.

 

The initial allocation is carried out depending on the nature of the threat envisaged in the command Area of responsibility.

 

The Allotment plan needs to be prepared after a detailed analysis of various factors like enemy capabilities, the enemy concept of operation, terrain, likely employment philosophy, end state, war endurance, etc.

 

Active Monitoring.

 

In the orchestration of air war, the roles of the service headquarters include conveying higher directions, monitoring the progress of operations in all zones/fronts, and providing the required wherewithal.

 

Active monitoring means not only listening out or observing, but collecting data continuously, analysing, anticipating, and proactively providing resources from the reserve or by transferring from one zone to the other.

 

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DOMINATING THE SKIES

 

“Air control can be established by superiority in numbers, by better employment, by better equipment, or by a combination of these factors.”

– Carl Andrew Spaatz

 

Air control is essential and a fundamental principle for the effective employment of air power.

 

Air dominance is a generic term meaning dominating the domain of the air.  It is like saying that Nadal or Djokovic are dominating the tennis circuit or Tiger Woods is dominating the golf world. In the context of air warfare, the genesis of this term started with the United States when they started their F22 program and the fifth generation F-35 aircraft, calling it air domination fighter, claiming that the aircraft has technology so superior that it’ll dominate the skies. USA has named its next sixth generation program as the New Generation Air Dominance (NGAD) program. USA has been dominating the skies for years with superior technology, which is now being challenged by China with its fifth and sixth-generation aircraft and systems.

 

“To have command of the air means to cut an enemy’s army and navy from their bases of operation and nullify their chances of winning the war.”

– Giulio Douhet

 

Command of the air and Control of the air, are terms indicating the prevailing state in the air war i.e. which side is getting the better off the other one. Both terms are loosely used interchangeably, but there is a subtle difference regarding the level. It is not the fighter aircraft alone, that contributes toward commanding or controlling the skies, it is the entire gambit of air power. These terms indicate the freedom to use the medium of air to own advantage and denial of the same to the enemy.

 

Air Supremacy, Air Superiority, and Favourable air situation are three terms that indicate the degree of command and control. They are indicative of three factors i.e. volume of airspace, duration, and extent of possible enemy interference.

 

Air Supremacy is when the entire airspace (own and enemy) is under its control for the entire duration of hostilities and the enemy is not able to interfere in any way with operations. Most of the US air wars have been against enemies that are weak in air war capability and the US forces have been able to achieve and maintain air superiority.

 

Air Supremacy is achieved when the entire enemy air power is neutralised, and the entire enemy air power is not able to use the medium of the air. Achieving air supremacy is a sort of strategic objective that needs a dedicated counter-air campaign.

 

Air superiority exists when the area is somewhat limited geographically and does not cover the entire air space,  time-wise it may be restricted to a few hours or days and the enemy may be able to interfere to some extent  (not to a prohibitively high extent).

 

Favourable Air Situation is the lowest level of control, influencing much smaller areas, for a limited duration and with a higher (not high enough to jeopardise the success of own missions) degree of enemy interference. It is like a tactical umbrella.

 

The degree to which the control of air can be achieved largely depends upon the differential in air power of the two opposing sides.

 

It needs to be decided and specified clearly in the objectives.

 

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