warfare – Air Marshal's Perspective

April 24, 2025April 21, 2025

658: RARE EARTH AS RARE WEAPON: INDIA’S OPPORTUNITY, AND CHALLENGE

My Article was published on the Eurasian Times website

on 21 Apr 25.

On 04 April 2025, China imposed export controls on seven REEs (samarium, gadolinium, terbium, dysprosium, lutetium, scandium, and yttrium) and rare earth magnets, requiring special export licenses. This move, a retaliation to U.S. tariffs as high as 145%, has halted shipments from Chinese ports, severely impacting U.S. industries like defence, electric vehicles, and medical technology.

The U.S. relies heavily on China for REEs, with over 50% of its critical minerals sourced there. China’s restrictions threaten U.S. defence (F-35 jets, missiles), tech (smartphones, AI chips), and healthcare (MRI machines, cancer treatments). Analysts warn of shortages, price hikes, and delays, with some companies facing permanent supply cuts.

Rare earth elements (REEs), a group of 17 chemically similar elements including scandium, yttrium, and the 15 lanthanides, are critical to modern technology. Often dubbed the “vitamins of modern industry,” REEs are indispensable, from smartphones and electric vehicle batteries to advanced military systems and renewable energy infrastructure. However, their supply chain is heavily concentrated, with China dominating global production and processing. This dominance has transformed rare earths into a potent geopolitical tool, particularly in trade wars, most notably between the United States and China.

For India, a country rich in rare earth potential but limited in production and processing capacity, this presents an urgent strategic opportunity and a daunting set of challenges. As the global balance of power shifts, New Delhi must rethink its resource security strategy, especially in the context of the U.S.-China rivalry and the growing importance of resilient supply chains.

Rare Earths: Strategic Importance

Rare earth elements comprise a group of 17 chemically similar metals: the 15 lanthanides, scandium, and yttrium. Despite their name, these elements are relatively abundant in the Earth’s crust but rarely found in concentrated forms economically viable to mine. Their unique magnetic, luminescent, and electrochemical properties make them indispensable to various high-tech applications.

- Neodymium is essential for high-performance magnets in electric motors, drones, and wind turbines.
- Europium and terbium are used in fluorescent and LED lighting.
- Lanthanum is used in camera lenses and hybrid vehicle batteries.
- Yttrium finds applications in radar and superconductors.
- Gadolinium and terbium are critical for military sensors, sonar systems, and advanced imaging technologies.
- Cerium and lanthanum are used in catalysts for refining petroleum.

The global demand for REEs has surged with the rise of green technologies and digital economies. The International Energy Agency projects that demand for specific REEs, like neodymium, could increase tenfold by 2040 to meet net-zero emissions goals. As of 2022, the global rare earth market was valued at approximately USD 3.9 billion, and is expected to reach USD 9.6 billion by 2030, growing at a CAGR of over 10% annually due to rising demand from clean energy and defence sectors (Fortune Business Insights, 2023).

China’s Dominance in the Global Rare Earth Chain

China’s strategic approach to rare earths began in the 1980s. Offering low prices and absorbing environmental costs drove many competitors out of the market, especially in the U.S., Australia, and India. 1992 Deng Xiaoping famously stated, “The Middle East has oil. China has rare earths.” This foresight has translated into geopolitical leverage.

According to the U.S. Geological Survey, in 2022, China accounted for approximately 70% of global rare earth mining, over 90% of refining and processing, and 90% of rare earth permanent magnet manufacturing (International Energy Agency, 2021). This concentration gives China significant leverage in international trade disputes.

Rare Earths in Trade War

The U.S.-China trade war, which escalated in 2018 under the Trump administration, saw tariffs, export controls, and technological decoupling dominate bilateral relations. Rare earths quickly emerged as a flashpoint. In 2010, China briefly restricted rare earth exports to Japan during a territorial dispute, causing global prices to spike and exposing the risks of supply chain dependence. This incident foreshadowed China’s willingness to use REEs as a bargaining chip.

In 2019, amid escalating trade tensions, Chinese state media hinted at curbing rare earth exports to the United States. President Xi Jinping’s visit to a rare earth processing facility in Jiangxi province was widely interpreted to signal China’s readiness to leverage its dominance. The U.S., heavily reliant on Chinese REEs for commercial and military applications, faced a stark vulnerability. For example, the F-35 fighter jet program depends on rare earth magnets, and any disruption could halt production.

China’s control extends beyond raw materials to the processing and manufacturing of REE-based components. Even if other countries mine rare earths, they often send them to China for refining due to its advanced infrastructure and lower costs. This creates a choke point that China can exploit during trade disputes. In 2023, China introduced export controls on certain rare earth technologies, further tightening its grip and prompting concerns about supply chain security. On April 4, 2025, China imposed new export restrictions on seven critical medium and heavy rare earth elements.

Economic and Geopolitical Implications

The weaponisation of rare earths has far-reaching consequences. For importing nations, supply disruptions can cripple industries, inflate costs, and delay technological advancements. In 2010, Japan’s automotive and electronics sectors faced production delays due to China’s export restrictions. Similarly, a sustained cut off to the U.S. could disrupt everything from consumer electronics to defence manufacturing.

For China, rare earths are a double-edged sword. While they provide leverage, overusing this tool risks alienating trading partners and accelerating efforts to diversify supply chains. China’s domestic demand for REEs is also rising, particularly for its electric vehicle and renewable energy sectors, which could limit its ability to restrict exports without harming its economy.

Globally, the rare earth trade war underscores the fragility of critical mineral supply chains. Countries like Australia, Canada, and the European Union have recognised the need for resilience, but building alternative supply chains requires significant investment and time. Environmental regulations and high capital costs further complicate efforts to scale up mining and processing outside China.

India’s Untapped Potential

India is not immune to this dynamic. Although it holds the fifth-largest rare earth reserves in the world, estimated at 6.9 million tonnes (USGS, 2023), India contributes only around 1% of global rare earth production. This is due to regulatory, environmental, and infrastructure barriers.

Opportunities for India. The U.S. and its allies actively seek to reduce their reliance on China for REEs. This allows India to become an alternative supplier, particularly in downstream value chains like magnets, batteries, and high-end components. A robust rare earth industry could enhance India’s economic security and bargaining power in international diplomacy. It can also reduce import dependency for key sectors such as defence and renewable energy. Developing a domestic rare earth value chain can create high-skilled jobs and foster innovation in materials science, metallurgy, and green technologies, which are critical for India’s future economic growth. India’s monazite deposits are rich in thorium, a potential future fuel for nuclear reactors. While radiological concerns complicate extraction, if thorium-based reactors become viable, they could offer a strategic advantage.

India’s Approach. India’s rare earth sector is primarily led by Indian Rare Earths Limited (IREL), a public sector entity under the Department of Atomic Energy. The National Critical Minerals Mission, launched in 2024, aims to bolster domestic production. IREL plans to quadruple its mining capacity to 50 million tonnes annually by 2032, increasing REE output from 5,000 to 15,000 tonnes. Investments in processing and separation facilities aim to address India’s lag in midstream capabilities, though technical expertise remains a bottleneck.

- Policy Reforms and Liberalisation. In 2023, India initiated policy changes to attract private players into critical mineral exploration. The Mines and Minerals (Development and Regulation) Amendment Act now allows private companies to bid to explore critical minerals, including REEs (Ministry of Mines, 2023). This is a significant shift from the earlier state-dominated regime.

- Bilateral and Multilateral Cooperation. India has begun forging rare earth supply chain partnerships with like-minded democracies. Under the India-Australia Critical Minerals Investment Partnership, India has committed to co-invest in Australian REE projects. It also explores partnerships with the U.S., Japan, and the EU under the Mineral Security Partnership (MSP).

- Research and Development. India has stepped up R&D through institutions like the Bhabha Atomic Research Centre (BARC) and the Council of Scientific and Industrial Research (CSIR) to develop indigenous REE extraction and separation technologies. Still, the gap in advanced metallurgy and processing know-how remains wide.

- Strategic Stockpiling. India is considering creating strategic reserves for critical minerals similar to those for crude oil. This would buffer supply disruptions, although implementation remains in the early stages.

Challenges Ahead. REE extraction is environmentally damaging and involves toxic waste. India lacks the robust regulatory and technological frameworks to mitigate these hazards, especially given the proximity of mineral-rich areas to ecologically sensitive zones. While mining is a start, the real value lies in processing and manufacturing advanced REE products like permanent magnets. India currently lacks world-class facilities and expertise in this area. Despite recent reforms, bureaucratic red tape, conflicting regulations, and slow implementation continue to plague India’s mining sector. A coherent, industry-friendly policy framework is essential. India’s non-aligned posture and cautious diplomacy can sometimes limit its ability to align with Western-led initiatives fully. Balancing its strategic autonomy while engaging in rare earth diplomacy will be delicate.

Recommendations

Establish a National Critical Minerals Mission, modelled on the success of the Solar Mission, which can bring together ministries, PSUS, private firms, and academia to develop a holistic roadmap.

Encourage joint ventures and public-private partnerships with technologically advanced nations, which can help overcome India’s processing deficiencies.

Incentivise Green Mining and Processing, to ensure sustainability, the use of cleaner technologies and strict environmental guidelines must be incentivised.

Invest in specialised training for mineral extraction, metallurgy, and environmental management to create a workforce for the REE sector.

Prioritise Mining and Processing, focusing on developing mining and midstream capabilities before investing in magnet production and leveraging international partnerships for technology.

Incentivise Private Investment by offering tax breaks and subsidies to attract private capital, addressing IREL’s monopoly legacy.

Expand Strategic Reserves and increase REE stockpiles to buffer against supply disruptions, learning from China’s 2024 embargo.

Conclusion

Rare earths are no longer just a matter of economic competitiveness but a pillar of strategic autonomy. They have become a powerful weapon in the U.S.-China trade war, reflecting the broader struggle for technological and financial supremacy. China’s dominance in the REE supply chain gives it significant leverage but also exposes the vulnerabilities of importing nations. Diversifying, recycling, and innovating are critical to reducing this dependence; however, they require time, investment, and international cooperation. As the world transitions to a greener, tech-driven future, securing a stable supply of rare earths will remain a geopolitical priority. The outcome of this struggle will shape trade relations and the global race for technological leadership.

For China, rare earths are a weapon; for the United States, a vulnerability; and for India, an opportunity. By seizing this moment, India can transform its rare earth sector from a dormant asset into a force multiplier, positioning itself as a consumer and a producer of the materials that will define the 21st century. India’s rare earth diplomacy and trade warfare strategy hinge on leveraging its vast reserves, forging international partnerships, and navigating geopolitical complexities. Opportunities to reduce global reliance on China, boost economic growth, and advance technology are significant, but technical, environmental, and financial challenges persist. By prioritising mining and processing, incentivising private investment, and deepening global alliances, India can establish itself as a pivotal player in the REE supply chain, aligning with its ambition to become a developed nation by 2047.

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Rare Earth As Rare Weapon! Amid US-China ‘Nasty’ Trade War, How Can India Use It’s ‘Dormant Asset’ To Assert Dominance

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To all the online sites and channels.

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Disclaimer:

Information and data included in the blog are for educational & non-commercial purposes only and have been carefully adapted, excerpted, or edited from reliable and accurate sources. All copyrighted material belongs to respective owners and is provided only for wider dissemination.

References:-

Mancheri, N. A., Sundaresan, L., & Chandrashekar, S. (2019). India’s Rare Earths Industry: Challenges and Opportunities. Institute for South Asian Studies.

Ministry of Mines, Government of India. (2023). Critical Minerals Strategy and MMDR Amendments. https://mines.gov.in

Bhabha Atomic Research Centre (BARC). (2022). Thorium and Rare Earth Research. https://barc.gov.in

Niti Aayog (2021). Strategy on Resource Efficiency in Rare Earths and Critical Minerals.

Mineral Security Partnership (MSP). (2024). Overview of Global Cooperation on Critical Minerals. https://www.state.gov/mineral-security-partnership

Press Information Bureau (2023). Government Notifies Critical Minerals List; Amends Mines and Minerals Act.

Fortune Business Insights (2023). Rare Earth Elements Market Size, Share & Industry Analysis.

International Energy Agency (2021). The Role of Critical Minerals in Clean Energy Transitions.

US Geological Survey. (2023). Mineral Commodity Summaries: Rare Earths. https://pubs.usgs.gov

Global Times (2019). China is ready to weaponise rare earths in a trade war.

U.S. Government Accountability Office (GAO). (2020). Defence Industrial Base: DOD Efforts to Assess and Mitigate Rare Earth Risks.

April 3, 2025April 2, 2025

637: THE GEOPOLITICS OF FIGHTER EXPORTS AND JOINT VENTURES

My Article was published on the Indus International Research Foundation Website on 02 April 25.

Fighter aircraft exports and development are more than commercial transactions or technological endeavours. Fighter exports and joint ventures serve as key instruments of statecraft, influencing alliances, shaping military doctrines, and reinforcing spheres of influence. Beyond economic interests, fighter exports often signal political alignment, with buyers and sellers engaging in long-term defence cooperation that extends beyond individual transactions. Complex negotiations usually accompany the sale of advanced fighter jets, offset agreements, and technology transfer arrangements, which carry significant diplomatic and security implications. The United States, Russia, China, and European powers dominate this space, but emerging players like India, South Korea, and Turkey increasingly assert themselves. There is a need to explore the multifaceted dimensions of fighter exports and joint ventures, analysing their impact on global security, economic interests, and diplomatic manoeuvring.

The Strategic Significance of Fighter Aircraft Development Programs

Fighter aircraft represent the apex of military aviation, integrating state-of-the-art engineering, advanced technology, and substantial financial investment. These platforms are key instruments in modern warfare, providing air superiority, precision ground attack capabilities, and deterrence. The strategic significance of fighter jets extends well beyond their battlefield utility, influencing geopolitical alignments, economic landscapes, and technological advancements.

Power Projection. The export and co-development of fighter aircraft significantly enhance a nation’s ability to project power beyond its borders. Supplying fighter jets to allies, an exporting nation extends its strategic reach, ensuring its influence in key regions. Nations with advanced fighter capabilities can assert dominance over contested airspace, deter potential adversaries, and support allied operations with force projection.

Alliance Building. Defence agreements involving fighter jets are instrumental in solidifying alliances. The procurement of these aircraft often necessitates long-term agreements that go beyond a simple arms transaction. Training programs, maintenance support, and logistical cooperation ensure sustained engagement between supplier and recipient nations. For instance, the U.S. sale of F-35 fighters to NATO allies strengthens collective defence, while India’s collaboration with France on the Rafale program deepens bilateral ties.

Economic Impact. Fighter aircraft programs play a crucial role in economic development for exporting and recipient nations. Manufacturing these sophisticated platforms generates high-skilled jobs, fosters technological innovation, and stimulates the defence industry. For importing nations, participation in joint ventures or localised production can help build a domestic aerospace sector, reducing long-term dependence on foreign suppliers and fostering economic self-reliance.

Technological Sharing. Collaborative fighter programs provide an avenue for technological transfer, enabling recipient nations to develop indigenous capabilities. By engaging in co-development projects, such as India’s involvement with Russia on the Su-30MKI or Japan’s partnership with the U.K. and Italy on the next-generation fighter program, nations acquire critical knowledge in avionics, stealth technology, and aerospace engineering. This reduces reliance on foreign manufacturers and strengthens national security.

Geopolitical Dimensions of Fighter Exports

Fighter aircraft exports are deeply intertwined with the geopolitical strategies of major military powers. Beyond economic gains, these transactions serve as instruments of influence, shaping alliances, regional security dynamics, and global power structures. Exporting fighters enables nations to strengthen partnerships, enforce strategic conditions, and maintain regional balances of power.

Exporting Influence. Fighter aircraft exports are often tied to the exporting nation’s broader geopolitical objectives. The U.S. dominates global fighter exports, offering aircraft such as the F-16, F-15, and F-35. These sales typically include conditions that align recipient nations with U.S. strategic goals, such as interoperability with NATO forces and adherence to U.S.-led arms control policies. For example, selling F-35 fighters to NATO allies and Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) states strengthens collective security frameworks and reinforces U.S. influence in these regions. On the other hand, Russian fighter exports, including the Su-30, Su-35, and MiG-29, play a crucial role in Moscow’s foreign policy. Russia leverages these sales to sustain its geopolitical clout in South Asia, Africa, and the Middle East. India’s long-standing acquisition of Su-30MKI fighters exemplifies this strategic relationship, ensuring continued defence cooperation between the two nations. China is emerging as a formidable player in the fighter export market. The JF-17 Thunder, co-developed with Pakistan, exemplifies Beijing’s ambitions to challenge U.S. and Russian dominance. With its affordability and modularity, the JF-17 has gained traction among developing nations seeking capable yet cost-effective fighter platforms.

Export Restrictions and Conditionality. Exporting nations often impose restrictions to safeguard their strategic interests and limit the recipient’s operational autonomy. Exporting nations usually restrict access to critical fighter technologies to prevent potential adversaries from gaining sensitive capabilities. This limitation affects recipient nations that seek to develop indigenous aerospace industries but must navigate restrictions on advanced avionics, stealth technology, and weapon systems. The U.S. enforces strict end-user agreements to regulate how exported fighters are used and resold. For instance, Turkey’s removal from the F-35 program following its purchase of Russia’s S-400 air defence system underscores the geopolitical stakes of such agreements.

Regional Balance of Power. Fighter aircraft exports significantly influence regional security landscapes. Exporting nations frequently calibrate their sales to maintain a delicate balance and prevent regional destabilisation. The U.S. sells advanced fighters like the F-15 and F-35 to Saudi Arabia and Israel. While supporting GCC states against Iran, Washington ensures that Israel retains a qualitative military edge through exclusive access to superior variants and additional defence systems. Russia’s fighter sales to India and China highlight its efforts to balance relationships with two regional powers with a complex strategic rivalry. By equipping both nations with advanced aircraft, Moscow maintains leverage while preventing either from becoming overly dependent on Western defence suppliers.

Joint Ventures: A Collaborative Approach.

Joint ventures in fighter aircraft development represent a strategic approach to balancing technological advancement, economic efficiency, and national security interests. Participating nations can foster technological independence by sharing costs, risks, and expertise while strengthening geopolitical alliances. These collaborations play a crucial role in shaping the global defence landscape.

Technology Sharing and Sovereignty. Joint fighter development programs enable nations to develop cutting-edge aircraft while enhancing domestic aerospace capabilities. Notable examples include. A collaboration between Germany, the UK, Italy, and Spain, the Eurofighter Typhoon exemplifies how nations can pool resources to produce a world-class multirole fighter. The program has enhanced European defence capabilities and reinforced industrial cooperation among partner nations. A joint project between Pakistan and China, the JF-17 Thunder allowed Pakistan to develop an affordable and capable fighter while gaining valuable experience in aircraft manufacturing. This partnership has strengthened Pakistan’s aerospace industry, reducing reliance on Western suppliers.

Geopolitical Complications. Despite their advantages, joint ventures are often complex and fraught with challenges. Competing interests among partner nations can lead to inefficiencies, delays, and disputes over work share. For instance, the Eurofighter program experienced significant delays due to disagreements over each partner’s production priorities and technological contributions. Nations involved in joint ventures may have differing operational requirements or export policies, leading to complications in decision-making. Varying national security interests can hinder smooth cooperation and affect the program’s long-term success.

Emerging Collaborations. New joint ventures reflect the evolving nature of global defence partnerships and the push for technological superiority. A Franco-German-Spanish initiative aimed at developing a 6th-generation fighter, FCAS underscores Europe’s desire for strategic autonomy in military aviation. The program will integrate next-generation technologies such as AI, stealth, and advanced networking capabilities. Led by the UK in collaboration with Italy and Japan, the Tempest program highlights the growing trend of non-U.S. defence collaborations. This initiative aims to develop a highly advanced fighter with state-of-the-art avionics, weaponry, and data fusion technologies, demonstrating a shift in defence cooperation beyond traditional alliances.

Challenges in Fighter Exports and Joint Ventures

Exporting fighter aircraft and international joint ventures in military aviation face significant challenges. These range from economic constraints and technological dependencies to political risks and intense competition. Each of these factors shapes the global fighter aircraft market and influences the success of such programs.

Economic Constraints. Modern fighter jets are prohibitively expensive, limiting their affordability for many nations. A single advanced multirole fighter can cost tens or even hundreds of millions of dollars, not including operational and maintenance expenses. Exporters often offer financing options, leasing arrangements, or government-backed subsidies to mitigate this. However, these financial mechanisms can strain national budgets and face domestic political scrutiny. For instance, India’s procurement of Dassault Rafale jets from France was marred by alleged controversy over pricing, alleged favouritism, and offset agreements. Such economic considerations can delay or cancel deals, affecting both export and importers.

Technological Dependencies. Fighter aircraft exports often create long-term dependencies on the supplying nation for maintenance, spare parts, and upgrades. This dependence extends to software updates, weapons integration, and operational training. The geopolitical implications of such dependencies can be significant, as the exporter retains leverage over the recipient. For example, many nations operating American-made fighters must seek U.S. approval for upgrades or modifications, restricting their operational autonomy. Similarly, India’s reliance on Russian aircraft like the Su-30MKI has led to logistical challenges due to The Russia-Ukraine war and Western sanctions on Russia, disrupting the supply of critical components.

Political Risks. Defence cooperation and fighter exports are susceptible to shifts in political leadership and international alliances. Changes in foreign policy or diplomatic disputes can abruptly halt ongoing programs. The United States’ decision to exclude Turkey from the F-35 Joint Strike Fighter program after Ankara purchased the Russian S-400 missile system exemplifies how political disagreements impact military collaboration. Such disruptions affect the purchasing nation and have economic and strategic consequences for the supplier.

Export Competition. The global fighter jet market is fiercely competitive, with the U.S., Russia, China, and France among the key players. Nations engage in aggressive marketing, offering attractive offset deals, technology transfers, and financing packages to secure contracts. The competition is further intensified by geopolitical alignments, with countries often choosing suppliers based on broader strategic partnerships rather than purely technical or economic factors. Fighter exports are highly competitive, with nations like the U.S., Russia, China, and France vying for market dominance. This competition can lead to aggressive marketing tactics and the provision of offset deals to sweeten contracts.

The Future of Fighter Exports and Joint Ventures

The landscape of fighter exports and joint ventures is set to evolve significantly, driven by technological advancements, the rise of new defence players, and shifting geopolitical dynamics.

Sixth-Generation Fighters. The development of sixth-generation fighters will reshape the geopolitics of fighter exports. Nations investing in advanced capabilities such as artificial intelligence, stealth, and directed-energy weapons will dominate future markets. Programs like NGAD (U.S.), FCAS (Europe), Tempest (UK-Japan-Italy), and the HAL CATS Program highlight the race to define the next generation of air power. These aircraft will demand extensive collaboration and significant financial investments, potentially altering traditional supplier-recipient relationships.

Regional Players. Emerging defence producers like South Korea (KF-21 Boramae) and India (Tejas MK2, AMCA) are entering the global market, challenging established exporters. These nations aim to reduce reliance on imports while expanding their geopolitical influence through exports. Their ability to offer cost-effective alternatives and localised production incentives could shift market dynamics and disrupt the dominance of traditional suppliers like the U.S., Russia, and France.

Unmanned Combat Aerial Vehicles (UCAVs). The growing adoption of UCAVs presents a parallel trend in fighter exports. Nations like Turkey (Bayraktar TB2) and Israel (Heron, Harop) have already established themselves as leaders in this field, with significant geopolitical implications. As unmanned systems become more capable and cost-effective, they may replace or complement traditional manned fighters, leading to a worldwide shift in defence procurement strategies.

Realignments. As global power shifts, fighter exports and joint ventures reflect new alliances and rivalries. The U.S.-China competition, the rise of multipolarity, and regional conflicts will shape the market’s future dynamics. Countries will increasingly seek defence partnerships that align with their strategic interests, making flexibility and technology-sharing critical for successful export programs.

Conclusion

The geopolitics of fighter exports and joint ventures is a multifaceted domain where technology, economics, and strategy converge. As nations pursue advanced capabilities and seek to bolster their influence, fighter programs will continue to serve as instruments of diplomacy, deterrence, and power projection. The interplay of competition and collaboration in this field will shape the future of airpower and the broader contours of international relations.

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The Geopolitics of Fighter Exports and Joint Ventures

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References and credits

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Disclaimer:

References:-

Bitzinger, R. A. (2008). “The Global Arms Trade: The Shifting Strategic Landscape.” Survival, 50(2), 55-68.

Eriksson, M. (2021). “The Mirage of European Defence Autonomy: Fighter Jet Collaboration and Transatlantic Tensions.” Journal of Strategic Studies, 44(5), 767-789.

Gilli, A., & Gilli, M. (2019). “Why China Has Not Caught Up Yet: Military-Technological Superiority and the Limits of Imitation, Reverse Engineering, and Cyber Espionage.” International Security, 43(3), 141-189.

Taylor, T. (2013). “Offsets, Technology Transfer, and Defense Industrialization: The Case of India’s Fighter Jet Programs.” Defense & Peace Economics, 24(5), 453-472.

Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI). (2024). Trends in International Arms Transfers.

European Union Institute for Security Studies (EUISS). (2023). The Future of European Fighter Jet Collaboration: FCAS vs. Tempest.

Indian Ministry of Defence. (2023). Defence Production and Export Policy 2023.

China’s State Administration for Science, Technology, and Industry for National Defense (SASTIND). (2023). China’s Defense Industrial Reforms and Export Strategies.

The Diplomat. (2023). “China’s Fighter Jet Exports: How JF-17 and FC-31 Are Changing the Market.”

Hartley, K. (2014). The Economics of Defence Policy: A New Perspective. Routledge.

Bitzinger, R. A. (2017). Arming Asia: Technonationalism and the Dynamics of Defence Industrialization. Routledge.

Sapolsky, H. M., Gholz, E., & Kaufman, A. (2009). US Defense Politics: The Origins of Security Policy. Routledge.

March 30, 2025March 30, 2025

632: 5G RACE BETWEEN THE DRAGON AND THE EAGLE: POTENTIAL TO ENHANCE AERIAL WARFARE

My Article Published on the EurasianTimes Website on 30 Mar 25.

Beginning of Mar 25, at the Mobile World Congress (MWC) in Barcelona, Nokia revealed that US defence and aerospace manufacturer Lockheed has deployed Nokia’s 5G solutions into its Hybrid Base Station. According to its website, Lockheed’s HBS is a unified network solution that provides communications, Edge processing, and advanced network capabilities for interoperable, resilient, and secure connectivity and data flow across all domains. Nokia added that its military-grade 5G technology makes it possible to “integrate commercial 5G connections with military communications systems to provide decisive information for national defence,” highlighting the importance of interoperability.

Earlier this year, China claimed to have introduced what it describes as the world’s first mobile 5G base station for military purposes. According to a South China Morning Post report, it was developed in partnership with China Mobile Communications Group and the Chinese People’s Liberation Army (PLA). The reports highlighted that the 5G mobile base station delivers high-speed, low-latency, and secure data services, supporting up to 10,000 users within a 3km radius. The system maintains a consistent total throughput of 10 gigabits per second with latency under 15 milliseconds. The report also stated that this new 5G base station paves the way for the extensive deployment of intelligent war machines. China is currently constructing what it claims to be the world’s most significant unmanned military force, featuring advanced yet cost-effective drones, robotic dogs, and other autonomous combat platforms that could eventually outnumber human soldiers.

Effective communication is essential in military aviation, where split-second decisions can determine a mission’s success or a personnel’s safety. The advent of fifth-generation wireless technology (5G) and advanced communication networks promises to revolutionise this field. With unparalleled speed, low latency, and extensive connectivity, 5G has transformative potential for real-time data sharing among aircraft, command centres, and other platforms. It enhances real-time communications in military aviation, strengthens network-centric warfare for a more integrated air force, and introduces security risks that must be addressed to protect operations. By examining these factors, we can recognise the significant implications of advanced communication technologies for modern military aviation.

Understanding 5G Technology. 5G, the fifth generation of wireless communication technology, is characterised by its high speed, low latency, and capacity to connect many devices simultaneously. These attributes make it a game-changer for military aviation, where timely and reliable communication is critical. Unlike its predecessors, 5G operates on higher frequency bands, such as millimeter waves, providing wider bandwidths for faster data transmission. It also employs techniques like beam forming, directing signals to specific devices rather than broadcasting omnidirectionally, to optimise signal strength and reduce interference.

Military Aviation: Possibilities

In military aviation, real-time data sharing involves the seamless exchange of information between aircraft, command centers, unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs), and other platforms. 5 G’s speed often exceeds 1 Gbps. Its latency, reduced to as low as 1 millisecond, enables near-instantaneous communication, a stark improvement over 4G’s 20-30 millisecond latency.

Types of Data. Real-time data is crucial in military and defence applications, enhancing situational awareness and operational efficiency. Sensor data from radar, infrared, and other detection systems provide critical intelligence on enemy positions and movements. For instance, a fighter jet detecting a hostile target can instantly transmit its coordinates to allied forces, improving response time. Video feeds, including HD or 4K footage from UAVs or onboard cameras, offer live intelligence, with 5G ensuring seamless transmission to command centers. Telemetry data tracks aircraft speed, altitude, fuel levels, and system health, enabling proactive maintenance and reducing downtime. Communication data, including voice and text transmissions, ensures seamless coordination between pilots, ground crews, and commanders, facilitating synchronised operations. These data types support real-time decision-making, enhancing battlefield effectiveness, reducing risks, and optimising mission success rates. Integrating AI and advanced networks further strengthens these capabilities, making modern military operations more responsive and precise.

Enhancing Data Sharing Across Platforms. In combat scenarios, aircraft must exchange vast amounts of data, radar signatures, sensor readings, high-definition video feeds, and tactical updates with command centers and allied units. Consider a multi-aircraft operation targeting enemy defences: each fighter jet must instantly share its position, target data, and threat assessments. For instance, a reconnaissance plane detecting an enemy convoy could stream live video to a command center, relaying precise coordinates to strike aircraft within moments. This speed enhances decision-making, enabling commanders to adapt strategies dynamically. Moreover, 5G’s low latency is a game-changer for time-sensitive applications. Even a half-second delay could be fatal during air-to-air engagements, where pilots rely on real-time radar and missile lock data. By slashing latency to 1 ms, 5G ensures data arrives when needed, improving coordination and precision.

Integration with Unmanned Systems. Unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) and drones are increasingly vital to military operations and performing reconnaissance, strikes, and electronic warfare. These systems depend on robust communication links to receive commands and transmit data. 5G’s high capacity and responsiveness enhance this connectivity. For example, a drone swarm conducting surveillance over hostile territory could send high-resolution imagery back to a command center while receiving real-time updated flight instructions. This capability supports more autonomous and complex UAV missions, such as coordinated attacks or perimeter defence, by maintaining a constant, reliable link. Additionally, 5G’s massive device connectivity allows numerous sensors and platforms to be integrated. A single operation might involve dozens of drones, manned aircraft, and ground stations, all sharing data through a unified network. This scalability ensures the communication infrastructure can keep pace as unmanned systems proliferate, fostering a more versatile and responsive air force.

Network-Centric Joint Warfare. Network-centric warfare (NCW) redefines military operations by linking all elements, aircraft, ground forces, naval units, and command centers into a cohesive information-sharing network. The goal is to achieve a decisive advantage through enhanced situational awareness, coordination, and speed. In aviation, NCW transforms isolated aircraft into nodes within a broader system, amplifying their effectiveness through collective intelligence. With 5G, NCW reaches new heights. Its high-speed, low-latency network enables seamless data exchange across platforms, creating a more integrated air force. Imagine a scenario where a reconnaissance drone identifies a mobile missile launcher. Within seconds, 5G transmits this intelligence to a nearby fighter jet, which adjusts its flight path while informing ground-based air defences and a command center. The jet engages the target, and the updated status is shared network-wide, allowing other units to reposition accordingly. This rapid, synchronised response exemplifies how 5G enhances operational tempo and effectiveness.

Enhancing Situational Awareness. Modern combat aircraft, including fifth- and sixth-generation fighters, rely heavily on seamless communication with command centers, reconnaissance drones, and other allied aircraft. The ability to transmit and receive data in real time enhances situational awareness, allowing pilots to react swiftly to evolving threats.

Optimising Command and Control. Military command centers depend on real-time data feeds to make strategic decisions. 5G networks enable instantaneous transmission of mission-critical information, including radar feeds, target tracking, and intelligence updates. This increased speed and reliability minimises decision-making delays, ensuring that commanders can deploy assets more efficiently and respond dynamically to threats.

AI and Big Data Integration. Advanced communication networks empower artificial intelligence (AI) systems to analyse vast battlefield data in real time. AI-driven analytics can provide predictive insights on enemy movements, optimise flight paths, and suggest strategic manoeuvres to pilots. Fusing AI with 5G networks creates a more innovative, adaptive military force capable of making split-second decisions based on real-time intelligence. This integration allows for the efficient processing of large volumes of data, enabling the military to make informed decisions and respond effectively to changing situations.

Security Risks

Integrating 5G into military aviation offers enhanced communication, real-time data sharing, and improved battlefield awareness. However, it also introduces significant security risks that could compromise mission success. As military systems increasingly rely on wireless, software-driven networks, the attack surface expands, creating new vulnerabilities.

One primary concern is jamming and interference, whereby adversaries employ electronic warfare techniques to disrupt 5G signals, which could sever critical communication links. Cyber attacks pose another serious threat; hackers might manipulate data transmissions, injecting false coordinates into navigation systems, potentially leading to disastrous consequences such as mission failure or friendly fire. Espionage is also a pressing issue, as adversaries could intercept sensitive transmissions, including radar data and flight plans, thereby exposing strategic operations. Furthermore, vulnerabilities in the supply chain emerge due to reliance on commercial 5G infrastructure.

Many private firms involved in 5G deployment may inadvertently introduce security loopholes, whether intentionally or not, granting hostile entities backdoor access. The sheer speed of 5G exacerbates these risks, allowing adversaries to launch large-scale cyber attacks more swiftly than traditional defence mechanisms can react. Additionally, the heavy dependence on virtualisation and software-defined networking introduces software-based vulnerabilities, which, if left unpatched, could be exploited by sophisticated attackers.

EW adds another layer of complexity. Adversaries might target 5G’s millimeter-wave frequencies, which, while offering high bandwidth, are susceptible to interference in contested environments. A successful jamming operation could isolate aircraft from command, crippling NCW’s effectiveness.

Threats to Military Aviation. These risks have dire implications in aviation. A compromised 5G network could disrupt UAV control, causing drones to crash or attack unintended targets. Interrupted communications might allow enemies to anticipate and counter manoeuvres during a coordinated strike. Moreover, reliance on commercial networks shared in 5G deployments raises concerns about espionage, especially if foreign entities dominate the supply chain. For instance, debates over certain manufacturers’ involvement in 5G infrastructure highlight fears of embedded vulnerabilities accessible to rival nations.

Mitigation Strategies.

To address the security risks associated with 5G in military aviation, robust defence mechanisms must be established. Encryption is vital, ensuring that intercepted communications remain indecipherable to adversaries—end-to-end encryption safeguards sensitive data, such as radar feeds and flight plans, from exploitation. Authentication protocols further bolster security by requiring multi-factor authentication to verify user and device identities, thereby preventing unauthorised access. Intrusion detection systems play a crucial role by continuously monitoring network traffic for anomalies, enabling rapid responses to cyber threats before they cause harm. Furthermore, redundancy is essential—backup communication channels, such as satellite links, provide fail-safes during 5G network disruption due to jamming or cyber attacks. Developing dedicated, military-specific 5G networks, distinct from commercial infrastructure, further enhances security by minimising exposure to supply chain risks and potential backdoors. Regular security audits and penetration testing assist in identifying vulnerabilities before adversaries can exploit them. Collaborating with the private sector can also strengthen the security of commercial components used in military applications. Lastly, training personnel to recognise cyber threats and respond effectively ensures that human factors do not become vulnerabilities in cyber security. The military can mitigate 5G-related risks while harnessing its advantages by adopting a comprehensive, multi-layered defence strategy.

Conclusion

The 5G race between China and the United States is more than just a contest for technological supremacy; it is a battle that could redefine the future of aerial warfare. As both nations invest heavily in next-generation networks, integrating 5G into military aviation will enable faster data transmission, enhanced artificial intelligence, and real-time battlefield awareness. This technology has the potential to revolutionise drone warfare, enable seamless coordination between manned and unmanned systems, and improve electronic warfare capabilities. However, the competition is not solely about innovation but security and strategic dominance. The United States remains wary of China’s 5G infrastructure, citing risks of espionage and cyber vulnerabilities, while China continues to push its indigenous advancements to reduce dependence on Western technology. The outcome of this race will not only shape military strategies but also influence global alliances, trade policies, and the future of digital warfare. As the dragon and the eagle vie for control, nations aligning with either power must carefully navigate the geopolitical implications of their technological choices. Ultimately, the side that harnesses 5G most effectively for aerial combat may gain a decisive edge in future conflicts, setting the stage for a new era of warfare.

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U.S.-China Aerial Warfare: How 5G Could Redefine The Future Of Battles Between The Dragon & The Eagle

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