412: ISRAEL HAMAS CONFLICT

 

The Israel Hamas conflict has entered the seventh week. The conflict is intense and has a high potential for escalation.

 

Gave video inputs to TV 9 (Hindi)  on aspects related to the recent occurrences of the conflict.

  1. Degree of danger from the conflict.
  2. Challenges for Israel to eliminate Hamas.
  3. Hamas ideology.
  4. Essential supplies disruption.
  5. Lebanon & Hezbollah.
  6. Escalation Chances.

 

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410: THUCYDIDES’S TRAP: DRAGON CHALLENGING THE EAGLE

 

“It was the rise of Athens and the fear that this instilled in Sparta that made war inevitable.”

– Thucydides, History of the Peloponnesian War

 

Thucydides was a general and historian from Athens. His book “History of the Peloponnesian War” detailed what caused the conflict between the Athenian Delian League and the Spartan Peloponnesian League. While the Peloponnesian League was declared the winner, much of Greece had been destroyed and the power in the region was almost entirely depleted, which left them vulnerable to Persian invasion.

 

Thucydides has been christened “the father of scientific history.” More than 2,400 years ago, the Athenian historian Thucydides offered a powerful insight: “It was the rise of Athens, and the fear that this inspired in Sparta, that made war inevitable.”

 

The Thucydides’ Trap, is a term popularised by American political scientist Graham T. Allison in 2015 to describe an apparent tendency towards war when an emerging power threatens to displace an existing great power as a regional or international hegemon. The term was coined in relation to a potential military conflict between the United States and the People’s Republic of China. The term gained further influence in 2018 as a result of an increase in US-Chinese tensions after US President Donald Trump imposed tariffs on almost half of China’s exports to the US, leading to a trade war.

 

“Thucydides’s Trap refers to the natural, inevitable discombobulation that occurs when a rising power threatens to displace a ruling power, and the resulting structural stress makes a violent clash the rule, not the exception”.

 – Graham T Allison’s American political scientist

 

Graham Allison’s book Destined for War: Can America and China Escape Thucydides’s Trap? Reviews and analyses sixteen cases in the past five hundred years, wherein a major rising power has threatened to displace a major ruling power. Allison illustrates how the tension between rising and ruling powers has often led to war—while also showing how war was avoided in the rivalries that did not end in violence.

Twelve of these sixteen rivalries ended in war.

 

 

Conflict of Interests

 

Will China become No. 1 and when is it likely to overtake the United States to become, say, the largest economy in the world, or primary engine of global growth, or the biggest market for luxury goods?

 

Indicators to be watched are:-

      • Size of Economy,
      • Manufacturing capability.
      • Trading Potential and volume,
      • Debt holding.
      • Foreign-direct-investment destination.
      • Energy consumption.
      • Oil imports.
      • Carbon emission.
      • Steel production.
      • Auto market.
      • Smartphone market.
      • E-commerce market.
      • Luxury-goods market.
      • Internet users.
      • Fastest supercomputer.
      • Foreign reserves.
      • The primary engine of global growth.

 

China has already surpassed the U.S. in some of these indicators. The questions are:-

 

Will China be able to sustain economic growth rates for in coming decade and beyond?

– It has slowed down a bit but continues to grow.

 

Are China’s current leaders serious about displacing the U.S. as the predominant power?

-Yes, China’s leaders are serious about displacing the United States as the top power in the world, in the foreseeable future.

 

Will China follow the path of Japan and Germany, and take its place as a responsible stakeholder in the international order that America has built?

– China does not like to be subordinate to anyone. It would want to be accepted as such.

 

The U.S. and China have the second and third-largest nuclear arsenals in the world, respectively, and an armed engagement between these two superpowers could quickly and easily escalate to a cataclysmic conflict. Such a conflict would not be in anyone’s best interest.

 

“War is a choice, not a trap.”

 

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References and credits

To all the online sites and channels.

  1. https://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2015/09/united-states-china-war-thucydides-trap/406756/
  2. https://www.belfercenter.org/thucydides-trap/case-file
  1. https://ndisc.nd.edu/news-media/news/to-set-and-spring-the-thucydides-trap/
  1. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Thucydides_Trap#:~:text=Thucydides’s%20Trap%20refers%20to%20the,the%20rule%2C%20not%20the%20exception.

Disclaimer:

Information and data included in the blog are for educational & non-commercial purposes only and have been carefully adapted, excerpted, or edited from sources deemed reliable and accurate. All copyrighted material belongs to respective owners and is provided only for purposes of wider dissemination.

409: Aspects Related to Long-Drawn Air War

 

Air war endurance, also known as sustainability in aerial warfare, refers to the ability of an air force or a nation’s air power to sustain prolonged operations and maintain a high level of combat effectiveness over an extended period.

 

Operational Tempo and Intensity. Tempo is the rate at which military power is applied in an efficient manner across part or the entire area of operations. The level of preparation required by the defence forces is determined by the combination of the expected duration of the war and the likely tempo/intensity of operations. Several key factors contribute to air war endurance and affect the duration, effectiveness, and efficiency of air campaigns.

 

Capability and Capacity Development

 

Capability vis-à-vis Capacity. Warfighting capabilities and the capacity to sustain operations are both essential.

 

Aircraft Type and Capability. The type of aircraft being used, their capabilities, payload capacity, and mission versatility significantly affect how effectively and efficiently air operations can be sustained.

 

Diverse Inventory. Indian military air assets have a very diverse inventory of platforms, systems, and weapons.

 

Logistics and Supply Chain Management. Efficient and reliable logistics networks and supply chains are crucial for providing fuel, ammunition, weapons, spare parts, other critical supplies, and resources to sustain aircraft operations.

 

Maintenance and Repair Capabilities. Efficient maintenance operations are essential to ensure the continued availability of air assets for extended periods.

 

Fuel Availability and Consumption. The energy supply chain is the first casualty in any war. Efficient fuel management plays a crucial role in prolonged air operations.

 

Training and Personnel Readiness. Intangible factors like morale, training and tactics are very important for military success and more so in long wars.

 

Protection of Air War Endurance Enablers. This aspect has pronounced relevance in long-drawn wars.

 

Decision Making & Situational Awareness. In long-drawn wars, it is even essential to make the right decisions. The three most important contributing factors are a high degree of situational awareness, a robust and fast, network system for information sharing, and AI-based decision support systems.

 

Unmanned Platforms. The use of unmanned platforms and systems is growing in warfare. Drones of various sizes and capabilities are taking over the tasks of conventional platforms.

 

Employment Philosophy and Airpower Application

 

Clearly Defined Objectives. A clear and practical definition of objectives, at all levels i.e. political, military and air force levels is very important.

 

Integrated Conceptualization and planning.  Warfare has become multidomain in nature, and to optimise resource utilisation, integration of all capabilities is necessary at conceptual and strategic levels.

 

Strategic Planning, Adaptability and Flexibility. In long wars, strategic plans need to allow for adjustments and adaptability in response to changing circumstances or unexpected events during a prolonged air war.

 

Grey Zone Operations/No War No Peace Situations. Grey zone operations are operations in the contested arena somewhere between routine statecraft and open warfare.  These are becoming a norm in modern-day warfare.

 

Airpower Application Strategy. Well-thought-out strategy would have to be employed for the application of Airpower. Relevant aspects would be as follows:-

 

      • Effect-based operations.

 

      • Selective dominance.

 

      • Conservative risk-taking profile.

 

      • Networked air environment.

 

      • Precision and Stand-off capabilities. 

 

      • Sortie generation rate.

 

Larger Vital Aspects

 

Indigenous Defence Industry. Self-reliance is an absolute necessity in long-drawn wars.

 

Infrastructure. Adequate infrastructure is essential to increase the war endurance.

 

Resource Management and Sustainability. Long wars necessitate effective management of available resources, budget, and personnel to sustain a prolonged air campaign without running into shortages or burnout.

 

Economic Sanctions. The effect of the sanctions especially on air war, needs to be factored into the long-term plans.

 

Collective Security. Collaboration and sharing resources with allied nations or coalition partners can extend the endurance of air operations by pooling together expertise, assets, and capabilities.

 

Future Investments. Suggested future investments for the Indian Aerospace power are as follows:-

 

      • Future Technology. Air Force is a technology-intensive service and converting technology into capability is a time-consuming process.

 

      • Loyal Wing Man Concept. The thought process for the next generation of platforms is to harness the advantages of both.

 

      • Hypersonic Weapons. The development of hypersonic weapons is likely to have a significant impact on air strategy.

 

      • New Domains of Warfare. The domains like cyber, space, electronics and information have come into the influence of warfare. China’s formation of a Joint Strategic Support Force (JSSF) as a separate service, with defensive and offensive capabilities, in above mentioned four domains, indicates future challenges. Reorientation is required to deal with these changes.

 

      • Space-Based Capabilities. Space-based systems are becoming increasingly important in air warfare, providing capabilities such as navigation, targeting, communication, early warning of missile launches and space-based surveillance.

 

Coming UP: Detailed article on the subject

 

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References and credits

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Disclaimer:

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