Category: war and warfare

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515: KURSK INCURSION: TURNING THE TABLES

 

 

My OPED published on the EurAsian Times website on 30 Sep 24.

 

In an unexpected move, On Aug. 6, Ukraine surprised the world by launching a bold pre-emptive offensive attack into Russian territory. Reportedly, over 1000 Ukrainian troops, along with armour, crossed into Kursk Oblast, a Russian region that borders Ukraine to the southeast. Ukraine’s cross-border attack named “Operation Krepost” on Russia’s Kursk region is the most significant incursion by Ukrainian forces into Russian territory since the start of the war. In this operation, Ukraine claims to have seized over 1,000 square kilometres of territory and captured several settlements and hundreds of Russian soldiers. The Kursk attack is distinct in the scale of resources used by Ukraine and its highly secretive nature. The event represents a turning point in the war and global geopolitics, shifting the initiative temporarily from Moscow to Kyiv. It has sparked widespread debate, highlighting the conflict’s potential for escalation and geographical expansion and raising questions about the underlying objectives behind this move and its possible future repercussions.

 

Surprise, Shock and Awe. Any move into Russia required a surprise. The Ukrainian attack on Kursk was a stunning display of surprise in modern warfare. By employing a mix of operational secrecy, deception, and tactical manoeuvring, Ukraine managed to achieve a surprising advantage. Ukraine had been engaging Russian forces in the eastern regions around Toretsk and Pokrovsk, giving an impression that its primary focus remained there and diverting attention away from the northern border with Kursk. Ukraine also exploited the gaps in stretched-out Russian deployment by attacking an area with lesser defences. In contrast to previous minor ones with irregular forces, the sheer magnitude of the incursion misled Russian military planners, leaving them in shock and awe at the audacity of the Ukrainian troops. The plans were kept tightly under wraps, sharing them only with a tight group of generals and security officials. The attack was executed with remarkable speed and efficiency, limiting Russia’s ability to mobilise reserves and respond effectively in the early stages. This swift strike allowed Ukrainian forces to capture territory and establish control over critical areas before a complete Russian response could be coordinated.

 

Intentions and Objectives. Ukraine aimed to shift the momentum of the war by launching an offensive into Russian territory. Strategically, Ukraine aimed to divert Russian forces from other critical fronts, such as the eastern regions of Toretsk and Pokrovsk, where Russia had been advancing. While the complete success of this diversion is debated, Ukraine’s offensive has forced Russia to reassess its deployments and react to the threat. Ukraine’s objectives could also be to weaken Russia’s military capability, capture territory, and disrupt Russian supply lines. Some analysts also speculate that holding Russian territory might give Ukraine better leverage in peace negotiations in future. Besides, Ukraine needed to boost its morale after months of defensive operations. A successful offensive into Russia would showcase Ukrainian capabilities and counter Russian propaganda about an inevitable victory. These factors combined to encourage Ukraine to take the risk of crossing into Russia and launching the most significant cross-border attack of the war.

 

 

Effect on Russia. The Ukrainian attack on Kursk has had a significant effect on Russia, both militarily and politically. It has forced Russia to divert resources, exposed its military vulnerabilities, and increased internal political and psychological pressure. The Kursk Offensive has further stretched the already heavily engaged Russian military on multiple fronts, further complicating ongoing Russian offensive operations. Ukraine’s capture of territory in Kursk, including several settlements, is a blow to Russian morale and undermines the Russian invincibility. However, it has also significantly boosted Ukrainian morale, providing a much-needed psychological advantage. This also posed logistical challenges, as Ukrainian forces targeted vital supply lines and infrastructure. The Kursk attack is a psychological blow to the Russians, raising fears of further incursions and challenging the Kremlin’s portrayal of the war as distant from Russian territory. The shock of the incursion could also erode public support for the ongoing conflict as casualties rise and domestic security is threatened. The attack puts internal pressure on the Russian government.

 

Russian Response. Russian President Vladimir Putin called the incursion “a large-scale provocation” and responded by declaring an emergency, imposing heightened security measures in these areas and launching retaliatory counterattacks. Russia mobilised additional troops, mainly from regions close to Kursk, such as Belgorod and Bryansk, to stabilise the situation and prevent further Ukrainian advances. Russia escalated its aerial bombardments across Ukraine, focusing on critical infrastructure, military installations, and supply lines. These colossal airstrikes aimed to disrupt Ukraine’s operations and cripple its logistics. Several missiles (including Kinzhal, Kh-101 and Iskander missiles) and drones attacked 15 of Ukraine’s 24 regions.  Russia also deployed more drones and missile systems to target Ukrainian cities far from the front lines. Russia organised ground counteroffensives to reclaim the territory lost to Ukrainian forces in the Kursk region. These counterattacks aimed to regain control of settlements captured by Ukraine and reinforce border defences. Alongside traditional military responses, Russia reportedly increased cyber-attacks on Ukrainian infrastructure and government systems, aiming to weaken Ukraine’s command and control capabilities. Diplomatically, Russia described the Ukrainian attack as a significant provocation, with President Putin labelling it as part of Ukraine’s broader strategy to destabilise Russia. The Russian government used the Kursk attack to rally domestic support for the war effort and called on international partners to limit support for Ukraine.

 

Ukraine’s Supporters.  Several nations and organisations provided critical assistance to Ukraine. The U.S. is Ukraine’s most prominent supporter, providing billions in military aid, including advanced weaponry, intelligence, and training. The U.S. has supplied systems like HIMARS and air defence platforms, which are essential to Ukraine’s defence against Russian advances. Most NATO members, particularly those in Eastern Europe, like Poland, the Baltic States, and Romania, have provided substantial military aid, logistical support, and training. The European Union has also contributed financially, providing billions in aid packages. The U.K. has been a critical supporter, delivering advanced weapons systems and training Ukrainian forces. It has also played a significant diplomatic role, pushing for continued Western support for Ukraine. Canada has offered military and financial assistance to Ukraine, providing artillery systems, armoured vehicles, and drones. It has also imposed significant sanctions on Russia and supported diplomatic initiatives against the invasion. Western defence contractors, particularly from the U.S., have supplied Ukraine with essential technology and equipment. Civil society movements and non-governmental organisations in countries supporting Ukraine have also raised funds and provided humanitarian assistance. These state and non-state supporters have enabled Ukraine to continue resisting the Russian invasion, providing a vital backbone of military, economic, and diplomatic support.

 

Behind-the-scenes Support. In this instance, a debate has arisen about the direct or indirect involvement of the behind-the-scenes supporters. Washington says it was not informed about Ukraine’s plans ahead of its Aug. 6 incursion into Kursk. The United States has also said it did not take any part in the operation. Russia claims that the United States’ involvement in Ukraine’s incursion into Russia’s western Kursk region was “an obvious fact.” Russia also asserts that Western weaponry, including British tanks and U.S. rocket systems, have been used by Ukraine in Kursk. Media sources have reported that the United States and Britain have provided Ukraine with satellite imagery and other information about the Kursk region in the days after the Ukrainian attack. The intelligence was aimed at helping Ukraine keep better track of Russian reinforcements that might attack them or cut off their eventual withdrawal back to Ukraine.

 

 

Crystal Gazing. Ukraine’s advance into Kursk would culminate due to a combination of the Russian response, the number of casualties, and extended lines of communication. The Ukrainian army will probably be unable to hold all of the Russian territory it has advanced on. Kyiv is contemplating a longer-term occupation to use the land as a bargaining chip.  This will take a lot of Ukrainian resources, and enforcing a long-term occupation would depend on factors like Ukraine’s priorities, the availability and spare ability of resources, and the severity of the Russian response. The choices include consolidation on the captured terrain and partial or complete withdrawal. Partial withdrawal and consolidation seem to be the logical possibility.

 

The initial successes achieved by Kyiv in The Kursk attack have further intensified the war and raised questions about the future of the conflict. The Ukrainian offensive into Russian territory has had a profound impact on the course of the war. On one hand, it has boosted the morale of the Ukrainian army and sent a strong message to the West about Ukraine’s ability to take the offensive initiative. On the other hand, the offensive has elicited mixed reactions in Russia. The event has far-reaching repercussions on the entire war, further complicating the situation in the coming period. The war in Ukraine is a complex game, with many intertwined factors influencing the course of events. Both sides are undertaking concurrent campaigns that consume enormous resources (manpower, munitions, and supporting systems). Surge operations for short durations are possible, but sustaining them for long durations is doubtful. The future of this war mainly depends on the extent of continued Western military and political support to Ukraine.

 

Link to the Website:

https://www.eurasiantimes.com/operation-krepost-ukraines-awe-inspiring/

 

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References

  1. Basel Haj Jasem, “Kursk: A new chapter in the Ukraine war”, Daily Sabah, 27 Aug 2024.
  1. Anastasiia Lapatina, “Six Observations—and Open Questions—on

Ukraine’s Kursk Operation”, 15 Aug 2024.

  1. Deutsche Welle, “What is behind Ukraine’s Kursk operation in Russia?” The Indian Express, New Delhi, 11 Aug 24.
  1. “Moscow says US involvement in Ukrainian incursion into Russia’s Kursk is ‘an obvious fact’”, By Reuters, 27 Aug 24
  1. Mick Ryan, “The Kursk Offensive Dilemma”, Futura Doctrina, 19 Aug 24.

Credits

To all the online sites and channels.

Disclaimer:

Information and data included in the blog are for educational & non-commercial purposes only and have been carefully adapted, excerpted, or edited from reliable and accurate sources. All copyrighted material belongs to respective owners and is provided only for wider dissemination.

 

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506: EXERCISE TARANG SHAKTI: INTRICACIES OF MULTI-NATIONAL MILITARY EXERCISES

 

 

My Article published on the Chanakya Forum

 

India’s largest international air exercise, Exercise Tarang Shakti 2024, is in progress. Phase I at Sulur Airbase has been completed, and phase II is now underway. Military exercises are an important part of military cooperation and defence diplomacy. Worldwide, about 100-plus military exercises are conducted every year. These are bilateral or multilateral and vary in objectives, complexity, participation and duration. Indian participation in military exercises has increased in the last two decades. The IAF engages 25-odd countries bilaterally or multilaterally. Tarang Shakti, the largest international air exercise hosted by India, is a testament to the IAF’s role in international military diplomacy. The international air exercise involving air forces from multiple countries would enhance strategic relations, improve interoperability, and showcase India’s indigenous defence technologies.

 

The IAF, as a host of multinational exercises, plays a crucial role in fostering international military cooperation and diplomacy. This role demonstrates India’s growing influence in the global military arena and showcases its capabilities in organising and executing such complex exercises. The IAF has conducted and participated in several in-house exercises (without foreign participation). These include the air force level exercise Gaganshakti, the Airpower demonstration-wide exercise Vayushakti, the Tri-service exercise Bharat Shakti, the Multi-Agency Disaster response exercise Pralay Sahayam, and DANX (Defence of Andaman & Nicobar Exercise). International participation has picked up pace in the last two decades. The IAF has participated in over 90 international air exercises in the 21st century with almost all the leading Air Forces in the world (a list of these exercises is appended). These exercises advanced gradually from bilateral single-service exercises to multi-national multi-service exercises. In recent years, there has been a marked upturn in the complexity of these exercises. The experience gained by the IAF has paid enormous dividends of knowledge and experience.

 

Exercise Tarang Shakti

 

 

Exercise Tarang Shakti, a significant event in the global military arena, is the largest multilateral air exercise ever conducted and hosted by India. It is being held in two phases, with the first phase taking place at Sulur airbase in Tamil Nadu from August 6 to 14 and the second phase, currently underway at Rajasthan’s Jodhpur from 29 August to 14 September. A defence exposition has also been planned as part of this historic exercise.

 

The Tarang Shakti exercise has attracted the attention of air forces from fifty-one friendly foreign countries, with nearly 30 of them actively involved with their assets or as observers. The diversity of participating countries is a testament to the global significance of this exercise, with ten nations, including France, Germany, Spain, the United Kingdom, Australia, Bangladesh, Greece, Singapore, UAE, and the USA, committing their assets. The remaining countries are attending as observers to gain insights into the operations and strategies. Notably, Greece is participating in an Indian military exercise for the first time, while Russia and Israel are unable to participate due to their ongoing wars. The air chiefs of seven participating countries are expected to arrive on 11 Sep.

 

The Exercise features a wide array of advanced military aircraft and assets. Advanced aircraft such as Eurofighters, Typhoons, Rafales, F-18s, A-18s, C-130s, F-16s, A-10s, KC-130s, and KC-135s from countries like the USA, UAE, Singapore, France, and Germany are flying over the Indian skies during the exercise. The Indian Air Force’s LCA Tejas, Mirage 2000, Su-30, Jaguars, Mig-29, Rafale, IL-78, AWACS, LCH Prachand, Dhruv, and Rudra helicopters are participating in the exercise.

 

The first part at Sulur airbase, from 06 Aug to 14 Aug 24, saw Germany, France, Spain, and the UK with their assets. Phase two at Jodhpur involves the participation of Australia, Greece, Singapore, the UAE, and the US with their assets. At the last minute, Bangladesh opted not to deploy its C-130 aircraft. However, Sri Lanka stepped in to participate with its C-130 aircraft. Air Chiefs of seven countries will witness the exercise on 11 Sep. A defence expo is planned for 12-14 Sep. 17 observer countries, including Argentina, Botswana, Egypt, Italy, Malaysia, and Saudi Arabia, will also be part of the exercise.

 

Exercise Tarang Shakti aims to achieve several key objectives. It seeks to strengthen strategic relationships with friendly foreign countries and enhance coordination and understanding among the air forces, which is crucial for joint operations and missions. The exercise also aims to boost Interoperability, allowing participants to learn best practices, operational strategies, and techniques from each other. It facilitates professional exchange and knowledge sharing on modern aerial combat techniques, tactics, and strategy. Moreover, the exercise serves as a platform to showcase India’s Indigenous capabilities, including the participation of indigenous platforms and systems and the contributions of Indian defence companies during the defence expo.  The expo aims to attract international attention and foster collaborations in defence production by defence personnel from participating countries visiting and interacting with Indian defence companies. The over-arching aim is to build mutual trust, explore avenues for interoperability and learn new things from each other.

 

These multi-national military exercises are not just about strengthening foreign policy and diplomatic initiatives, enhancing strategic relations, and building stronger defence partnerships. They are also a powerful tool for strategic signalling, with their stated objectives, participants, scale, location, and time further determining their significance. They foster military ties among the participating nations and significantly promote mutual understanding and cooperation in defence strategies and operations. Multilateral air exercises expose participants to various operational training scenarios, combat roles, and missions. They further offer possibilities for cooperation in humanitarian assistance, disaster relief, evacuation, and logistic support, among other things. The participants gain immensely from their diverse exposure to technology, administrative, maintenance, HR and logistics practices, besides tactics, strategy and doctrines.

 

Intricacies of International Military Exercises

 

 

International military exercises are complex and multifaceted operations that involve multiple nations working together to improve their military capabilities, foster cooperation, and ensure collective security. These exercises range from large-scale, multinational manoeuvres to smaller, bilateral training operations. The complex intricacies of international military exercises require a careful balance of strategic, operational, and diplomatic considerations to achieve their objectives effectively.

 

    • Diplomatic Coordination. The success of these military exercises hinges on extensive diplomatic coordination. This strategic task aligns objectives, rules of engagement, and communication protocols. Some exercises are conducted to send strategic messages to adversaries or to reassure allies. The choice of location, timing, and participating nations can be politically sensitive and might influence international relations.

 

    • Legal Framework. The legal framework is a critical component of these exercises. Agreements and MOUs are required to define the legal status of foreign military personnel operating within a host country’s borders. These would cover issues like jurisdiction, taxation, weapons carrying, etc.

 

    • Logistics and Supply Chain. Moving military personnel, equipment, and supplies across international borders requires intricate logistical planning. This includes transportation, fuel, food, medical supplies, and spare parts.

 

    • Operational Planning and Execution. The primary objective is for different countries’ forces to work together effectively. This involves meticulous planning and execution, standardising communication systems, command structures, and procedures. Exercises often simulate various scenarios, including assaults, air defence, cyber warfare, humanitarian assistance, and disaster relief. Each scenario requires detailed planning and execution.

 

    • Intelligence Sharing. Participating nations often share sensitive information to support the exercise’s objectives. This requires a high level of trust and secure communication channels.
    • Cyber Security. Protecting the exercise from cyber threats is crucial, as adversaries might attempt to disrupt operations or gather sensitive information. Cyber defence drills are sometimes integrated into the exercise.

 

    • Safety Protocols. Ensuring the safety of all participants is paramount, particularly in exercises involving live firing or complex manoeuvres. This requires rigorous safety protocols and real-time monitoring.

 

    • Language Differences. Effective communication is critical, and language differences can pose significant challenges. Many exercises use English as the standard operational language, but translation and interpretation services are often required.

 

    • Cultural Sensitivity. Understanding and respecting partner nations’ cultural practices and norms is vital for maintaining cohesion and preventing misunderstandings.

 

    • Media Coverage. International exercises often attract media attention, and how they are portrayed can influence public perception. Managing information release and media coverage is a crucial aspect of these exercises.

 

    • Propaganda and Misinformation. Adversaries may use propaganda or misinformation to undermine the exercise’s objectives. Countering this requires a proactive public affairs strategy.

 

    • Environmental Impact. Large-scale exercises can have significant ecological impacts, including disruption of local ecosystems. Mitigating these effects is a critical planning consideration.

 

    • Post-Exercise Review. This is crucial because it assesses performance, identifies strengths and weaknesses, and develops recommendations for future exercises. The lessons learnt are used to refine tactics, techniques, and procedures and to improve interoperability in future operations.

 

Significant global participation in exercise Tarang Shakti underscores India’s growing power on the global stage and unwavering commitment to bolstering regional and international security. The exercise, a testament to India’s military prowess, is a powerful signal of its reliability as a partner in the global security system.  A long-term plan should be charted out for participation and hosting of the military exercises. A balance must be maintained regarding scope, objectives and participants, considering the advanced countries, countries of interest and neighbours. While the bilateral single-service exercises have advantages, multi-national, multi-service and multi-domain exercises bring out valuable lessons about realistic and comprehensive ways of dealing with contemporary situations.

 

 

List of IAF Participation in International Exercises.

  1. Red Flag Alaska (USA, multinational).
  2. Cope India / Cope Thunder (India, USA).
  3. Avia India / Indira (Russia, India).
  4. Exercise Pitch Black (Australia, Multinational).
  5. Exercise Garuda (France).
  6. CobraWarrior (UK, multinational).
  7. Indradhanush (India, UK).
  8. Exercise Blue Flag (Israel, Multinational)
  9. Iniochos (Greece, multinational).
  10. SINDEX (India, Singapore).
  11. Exercise Desert Eagle (India, UAE).
  12. Exercise Eastern Bridge/Desert Bridge (India, Oman).
  13. Siam Bharat (India, Thailand).
  14. Shinyuu Maitri (India, Japan).
  15. Exercise DesertKnight (India, France, UAE).
  16. ExerciseDesert Warrior (India, Egypt).

 

Suggestions and value additions are most welcome.

 

Link to the article on Chanakya Forum:-

EXERCISE TARANG SHAKTI: INTRICACIES OF MULTI-NATIONAL MILITARY EXERCISES

 

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References and credits

To all the online sites and channels.

References

  1. Anchit Gupta and Angad Singh, “Diffidence to Strength: Multinational Air Exercises in Indian skies”, Indian History, 03 Aug 2024.
  1. Air Marshal (Dr) Diptendu Choudhury (Retd) PVSM, AVSM, VM, VSM, “The Rising Wave of Air Power -Exercise Tarang Shakti”, 25 Aug 2024.
  1. Air Marshal Anil Chopra, “Mother Of All IAF Exercises! After 61 Years of Post China War, India Begins Its 2nd Ever Multilateral Drills ‘Tarang Shakti’”, The EurAsian Times, 06 Aug 2024.
  1. Nigam Sharma, “Exercise Tarang Shakti 2024: Everything You Need to Know”, 05 Aug 2024.
  1. Anurag Roushan, “’Tarang Shakti’: India set to host its largest multinational air exercise, 51 countries invited”, India TV News 01 Aug 2024.
  1. “‘Tarang Shakti’, largest multilateral air exercise in India”, PTI, 31 Jul 2024.
  1. Shivani Sharma, “Bangladesh opts out of multinational air exercise Tarang Shakti, Sri Lanka steps in”, India Today, 30 Aug 24.

Disclaimer:

Information and data included in the blog are for educational & non-commercial purposes only and have been carefully adapted, excerpted, or edited from reliable and accurate sources. All copyrighted material belongs to respective owners and is provided only for wider dissemination.

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504: HELLSCAPE VS DRAGONSCAPE: BATTLE OF AUTONOMOUS MACHINES

 

 

 

My Article published on the Newsanalytics Journal

 

 

China’s rise as a global power is multifaceted, encompassing economic growth, technological advancements, military modernisation, and increasing geopolitical influence. However, in some ways, the Chinese seem to be in a medieval thought process. Their aspirations are guided by the principle that “a strong empire expands and a weaker empire shrinks”. China’s expansionist strategies are driven by securing its national interests, asserting its status as a global power, and reshaping the international order, favouring its long-term strategic goals. These efforts, however, lead to tensions and pushback from other nations, contributing to a complex and often contentious international environment.

 

One China Policy. The “One China Policy” is a cornerstone of diplomatic relations between China and other countries. It asserts that there is only one China, and Taiwan is an inseparable part of it. This policy is crucial to understanding China’s foreign relations, particularly with the United States and other Western countries. Beijing regards Taiwan as part of China to be reunited at any cost. Taiwan has developed a distinct identity with a democratic political system, vibrant civil society, and robust economy, differing significantly from mainland China. Taiwan seeks peaceful relations with mainland China but resists unification under the terms proposed by Beijing. Many Taiwanese prefer maintaining the status quo rather than pursuing formal independence or unification. The One China Policy is a sensitive issue in U.S.-China relations. The U.S. acknowledges the One China Policy but maintains ties with Taiwan through the Taiwan Relations Act (1979), allowing commercial, cultural, and other exchanges. The US is the island’s biggest supplier of arms. In recent years, tensions have escalated due to factors such as the PRC’s military activities near Taiwan, increased U.S. support for Taiwan, and Taiwan’s efforts to gain greater international recognition.

 

Unification Plans. China is increasingly getting ready for the unification of Taiwan. It is reported that Beijing has increased its defence budget in recent years and is the second highest behind the US. China is building its military and nuclear arsenal at a rapid pace. PLA has commissioned over 400 new fighter jets and 20 warships in the last few years and doubled its ballistic and cruise missile inventory. China is also building a fourth amphibious landing craft. Xi has called for China to build a “world-class military” by 2027 when the PLA marks 100 years since its founding. These signs suggest the country is sticking to its ambitions of reuniting the self-ruled island with China “by force if necessary.”

 

Salami Slicing and Cabbage Strategy. China believes in Sun Tzu’s philosophy of subduing the enemy without fighting. It prefers salami-slicing rather than overt aggression, i.e., gaining strategic advantage through a steady progression of small actions. It limits adversaries’ options by baffling their plans and making it problematic for them to develop a response. Beijing will continue to apply military and economic pressure and public messaging and influence activities while promoting long-term cross-strait economic and social integration to induce Taiwan to move toward unification. PLA also uses the “cabbage strategy” to seize control of islands. This strategy involves surrounding and wrapping the island in successive layers of Chinese naval ships, China Coast Guard ships, and fishing boats and cutting off the island from outside support.

 

Grey Zone Activities. Beijing’s recent military and ‘grey-zone’ manoeuvres near Taiwan have raised the spectre of a potential conflict. These actions include repeated war games, simulations, combat training, aerial and sea incursions, and encirclement of the island nation. The Chinese forces have conducted military drills around Taiwan and claim that they can impose and maintain a blockade on an island using different types of drones. At the same time, the warships and submarines prowled the surrounding waters. The Chinese actions prompted the USA to announce its new strategy dubbed “Hellscape.”

 

 

US Hellscape Strategy. The strategy assumes that China, learning from the Russian stalemate in the Ukraine war, will launch a mass drone and missile attack to overwhelm Taiwan with little warning. In this scenario, when the Chinese invasion fleet moves out from its ports to sail towards Taiwan to cross the 100-mile (160-kilometre) wide Taiwan Straits, the US military will flood the waterway with thousands of swarm unmanned underwater and surface vessels, apart from kamikaze drones and loitering munitions. The intention is to turn the Taiwan Strait into an unmanned hellscape, making the life of the invading Chinese fleet miserable, to harass, distract, and delay them, creating a barrier and buying crucial time for the U.S. and its allies to respond. The recent Ukrainian strategy inspires this strategy, but the US will use a lot of artificial intelligence and machine learning to detect, identify, and harass the Chinese ships crossing the straits. The US plans to deploy many cheap, unmanned drones across multiple domains—air, sea, and land. The drones are designed to function autonomously, even in environments with limited or disrupted communications, and succeed independently on the battlefield. The idea is to counter China’s advantage of mass (i.e., ships, missiles, and drones) with smarter mass, creating an asymmetric advantage.

 

Replicator Programme. The US has already started to work on its hellscape strategy plan. The US Department of Defense (DoD) has given a billion dollars to a program called “Replicator.” This program will build swarms of thousands of UUVs, USVs, and loitering munitions within the next two years. These cost-effective, dependable drones would be produced close to the battlefield at a fraction of the cost of traditional weapons systems. The targeting data across the theatre is also being integrated through the Assault Breaker II programme of the Defence Advanced Research Projects Agency (DARPA).

 

 

The strategy of Mass vs Smarter Mass. The United States military strategy often incorporates overwhelming force (mass) and advanced technology, which can create a “hellscape” for adversaries. This approach leverages the U.S.’s technological edge and substantial military resources to achieve rapid and decisive victories in conflicts. In this case, China is no pushover and has comparable technological prowess. The success of their respective strategies would depend on technologically advanced autonomous platforms. It is bound to create an arms race between the two camps. The strategy’s success also relies on the speed of subsequent response by the US and its allies.

 

Ramifications. Taiwan is in a crucial geopolitical location in East Asia, making it a significant point of interest for regional and global powers. The USA’s Hellscape strategy and the Chinese plan to counter it have stimulated a “war of words” with a highly contentious and hostile exchange of rhetoric and aggressive, inflammatory, and vitriolic language. A potential war over Taiwan would indeed be complex and potentially catastrophic, with far-reaching consequences for the involved parties and the world.

 

    • The People’s Liberation Army (PLA) is one of the world’s largest and rapidly modernising militaries. A conflict involving China would likely involve advanced weaponry, cyber warfare, and significant military assets. Taiwan has a well-equipped and highly motivated military, with substantial investments in defence technologies and support from allies like the United States. The U.S. has a longstanding commitment to Taiwan’s defence through the Taiwan Relations Act. Any conflict would likely draw in U.S. military forces and other regional allies, escalating the situation.

 

    • Taiwan is a major global technology and manufacturing player, particularly in semiconductors. A conflict could disrupt international supply chains and have severe economic repercussions worldwide. The economies of East Asia are highly interconnected, and a war could destabilise the entire region.

 

    • Both sides will likely engage in cyber warfare, targeting critical infrastructure, communication networks, and financial systems, which could have widespread and long-lasting effects.

 

    • While less likely, any escalation involving nuclear-armed states like the United States and China carries the risk of a nuclear confrontation, which would have devastating consequences.

 

 

Suggestions and value additions are most welcome.

 

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References and credits

To all the online sites and channels.

  1. Swarajya Staff, “Can China Counter United States’ ‘Hellscape’ Plan When Invading Taiwan?” Swarajya website, 13 Jun 2024.
  1. FP Staff, ”What is the ‘Hellscape’ strategy the US is planning to use on China if it invades Taiwan?” First Post website, 11 Jun 2024.
  1. Keoni Everington, “US plans ‘hellscape’ of drones if China invades Taiwan”, Taiwan News website, 11 Jun 2024.
  1. John Grady, “‘Hellscape’ Swarms Could Be as Cost Effective Taiwan Defense”, USNI News, 02 July 2024.
  1. Joe Saballa, “China ‘on Track’ for Potential Taiwan Invasion by 2027”, The Defence Post website, 22 Mar 2024.
  1. Jesse Johnson, “China on track to be ready to invade Taiwan by 2027,” The Japan Times website, 21 March 2024.
  1. Abhinav Singh, “China plans to use drones to blockade Taiwan after the US unveils ‘Hellscape’ strategy”, Wion website, 07 Jul 2024.
  1. Ujjwal Shrotryia, “US Has A Nasty Surprise For China If It Tries To Invade Taiwan — Hellscape”, Swarajya website, 11 Jun 24.

 

Disclaimer:

Information and data included in the blog are for educational & non-commercial purposes only and have been carefully adapted, excerpted, or edited from reliable and accurate sources. All copyrighted material belongs to respective owners and is provided only for wider dissemination.