Category: Geo-politics

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613: INDIAN QUANDARY ABOUT PROCUREMENT OF FIFTH-GENERATION FIGHTER AIRCRAFT

 

My Article was Published in the Chanakya Diaries, Issue 2, Spring 2025.

 

The world of military aviation has witnessed a significant leap in technological advancements, particularly in developing fifth-generation fighter aircraft (5GFA). These next-generation fighter jets are equipped with stealth technology, advanced avionics, and superior weaponry, allowing them to operate in highly contested airspaces. As global military technologies advance, so does the need for air forces to adopt cutting-edge systems capable of responding to emerging threats. Acquisition of such advanced technologies is crucial for maintaining air superiority and securing national interests. However, India’s path to acquiring fifth-generation fighters has been filled with challenges, forcing the country into a quandary about securing these crucial assets for its Air Force. This article delves into India’s dilemma regarding 5th-gen fighter jets, exploring the complexities of the decision-making process, the challenges posed by current defence procurements, and the country’s broader defence and geopolitical considerations.

 

Fifth-Generation Fighter Aircraft

Fifth-generation fighter aircraft represent the pinnacle of modern military aviation, incorporating cutting-edge stealth, advanced avionics, superior manoeuvrability, and network-centric warfare capabilities. These aircraft are designed to achieve air superiority while minimising detection through radar-evading features such as internal weapons bays, composite materials, and aerodynamic shaping. Notable examples include the U.S. F-22 Raptor and F-35 Lightning II, China’s J-20, and Russia’s Su-57. Unlike previous generations, fifth-generation fighters rely on sensor fusion, artificial intelligence-assisted decision-making, and high-capacity data links to dominate the battle-space. Their integrated avionics provide pilots with unparalleled situational awareness, allowing seamless coordination with other forces and unmanned systems. High-thrust engines with supercruise capability enable sustained supersonic speeds without afterburners, enhancing operational range and fuel efficiency. Furthermore, their electronic warfare and cyber capabilities allow them to disrupt enemy communications and radar systems. While these aircraft offer unmatched lethality and survivability, their complexity and cost present production, maintenance, and procurement challenges. Nations investing in fifth-generation fighters seek battlefield dominance and strategic deterrence, as control of the skies remains a decisive factor in modern warfare. As military technology advances, these fighters continue to evolve, shaping the future of aerial combat.

 

IAF Challenges and Necessities

Prevailing Challenges. India is a major regional player, and due to its unique geographical location and geo-political environment, it faces a collusive threat (from its two nuclear-powered unfriendly neighbours) with significant chances of military conflict. This unique position dictates that the country be able to deter her hostile neighbours from any military misadventure singly or collusively. Besides land borders being the main reason for the dispute, the security of the IOR region would also be a major security necessity. IAF would be required to offer options to meet India’s domestic and regional security requirements.

Air Threat. For a considerable time, the IAF enjoyed an edge in modern combat aircraft over its rivals – the Chinese People’s Liberation Army Air Force (PLAAF) and the Pakistan Air Force (PAF). This situation is changing with the PLAAF transformation, China’s investment in aerospace research and development, and aircraft manufacturing. China has inducted its two home-grown stealth fighters (J-20 and J-31) in large numbers and has already flown sixth-generation prototypes. Pakistan continues to be in collusion with China. PAF has inducted Chinese J-10 and JF-17 aircraft and has desired to induct Chinese fifth-generation aircraft.

Urgent Necessity. The Indian Air Force’s current strength is significantly below its sanctioned level. Its indigenous development of fourth—and fifth-generation aircraft faces technological hurdles and time delays. In the face of prevailing challenges, India cannot afford to lag in its military capability. The impending air threat from China and Pakistan has made the acquisition of fifth-generation fighters an urgent and necessary priority to enhance the IAF’s deterrence value.

 

Acquisition Efforts

Collaborative Effort. India’s journey toward acquiring fifth-generation fighter aircraft began with an ambitious collaboration with Russia. In 2007, India partnered with Russia to co-develop the Su-57, also known as the T-50 or PAK-FA. This project was expected to yield a fifth-generation fighter with advanced stealth capabilities and cutting-edge avionics, making it a crucial addition to India’s fleet. While India’s collaboration with Russia began with great optimism, several issues soon emerged related to cost overruns, development delays, and technological shortcomings, leading to re-evaluating the program. 2018, after years of joint research and development, India decided to pull out of the Su-57 program, marking a pivotal moment in its fifth-generation fighter aspirations. The decision left India searching for alternative solutions.

MRFA Acquisition. The history of India’s Multi-Role Fighter Aircraft (MRFA) acquisition effort is marked by ambitious plans and evolving defence strategies to modernise the IAF’s fighter fleet. The origins of the MRFA initiative can be traced back to the Medium Multi-Role Combat Aircraft (MMRCA) tender issued in 2007, which sought to acquire 126 fighter jets to replace the ageing MiG-21 fleet. After extensive evaluations and trials, the Dassault Rafale emerged as the preferred choice in 2012; however, contractual disagreements and cost escalations led to the eventual scrapping of the deal in 2015. In its place, the Indian government opted for a government-to-government deal to procure 36 Rafale jets in 2016 to meet urgent operational needs. The failure of the MMRCA tender to materialise in its original form highlighted the complexities involved in large-scale defence procurements, including cost considerations, technology transfer requirements, and offset agreements. In response to these challenges, the IAF redefined its requirements and reinitiated the procurement process under the MRFA program in 2019. The renewed effort sought to leverage lessons learned from the previous tender while emphasising indigenisation and the development of India’s defence manufacturing capabilities under the ‘Make in India’ initiative. Unlike its predecessor, the MRFA acquisition focuses more on domestic production, requiring foreign vendors to collaborate with Indian defence firms to establish local assembly lines and facilitate technology transfers.

Overview of the MRFA Acquisition Program. The MRFA acquisition program is a critical initiative by the Indian Air Force to acquire 114 advanced multi-role fighter jets to enhance its operational capabilities and replace its ageing fleet of legacy aircraft. Under MRFA, the IAF aims to procure state-of-the-art fighters that can undertake various combat roles, including air superiority, ground attack, reconnaissance, and electronic warfare, ensuring dominance in modern warfare scenarios. The MRFA acquisition process is structured under the ‘Make in India’ initiative, emphasising indigenous production and technology transfer to boost the domestic defence industry. The IAF issued a global Request for Information (RFI) in 2019, inviting proposals from major aircraft manufacturers worldwide. The procurement is expected under the Strategic Partnership (SP) model, which involves collaboration between foreign Original Equipment Manufacturers (OEMs) and Indian defence firms. This collaboration required establishing production lines within the country and transferring critical technologies, reducing import dependency and promoting self-reliance in the defence sector.  One of the essential requirements outlined by the IAF in the MRFA tender is the transfer of technology (ToT), which will allow Indian defence companies to gain technical expertise in aircraft manufacturing, maintenance, and future upgrades. The current situation stresses the inclusion of fifth-generation aircraft in the acquisition plans.

Domestic Solution: AMCA. India has pursued an indigenous solution to its 5th-gen fighter needs through the Advanced Medium Combat Aircraft (AMCA). The AMCA is being developed by the Aeronautical Development Agency (ADA) under the Indian Ministry of Defence. It is intended to be a 5th-gen fighter with advanced stealth technology, super-cruise capabilities, and cutting-edge avionics. While the AMCA represents a step toward self-reliance and is seen as a critical component of India’s long-term military strategy, several challenges are associated with its development. The development of the AMCA has faced numerous delays. Initially slated for entry into service by the mid-2020s, it is now expected to enter service closer to the late 2030s. The project also faces significant technological challenges in developing a fighter of this sophistication. While progress is being made, achieving the same level of performance and stealth as the F-35 or Su-57 remains a formidable task.

Choices and Possibilities. Both the U.S. and Russia are aggressively pitching their fifth-generation aircraft. Besides outright purchase, India may explore collaboration and joint development programs or technology transfers (Stealth, Aero-engines and advanced avionics) that accelerate AMCA’s timeline.  Limited acquisitions of F-35s or Su-57s focusing on training and operational familiarity while ensuring that AMCA remains the primary focus are also possible options.

 

The Foreign Procurement Dilemma

Given the delays and challenges of Indigenous development, India has to explore foreign procurement options for fifth-generation fighter jets. The United States, with its F-35 Lightning II and the Russian SU-57, has emerged as a potential source of these advanced aircraft. However, several geopolitical, diplomatic, and technical barriers complicate purchasing these aircraft.

U.S. Signals: F-35 Lightning II. The U.S. has been subtly signalling a potential offer of the F-35 to India. The aircraft first appeared in the Indian skies in the previous aero India 2023. Although Washington has not officially proposed a deal, diplomatic engagements and increasing defence cooperation between the two nations suggest that such a move could be on the horizon. Some analysts believe the U.S. could propose the F-35 as a deterrent against China, leveraging India’s growing security concerns to break its traditional reluctance toward American fighter jets. The F-35, developed by Lockheed Martin, represents the epitome of 5th-gen fighter capabilities. It is a highly advanced stealth fighter, but its suitability for the Indian Air Force (IAF) is debatable due to operational, geopolitical, and logistical factors. While the F-35 offers cutting-edge stealth, sensor fusion, and electronic warfare capabilities, making it a formidable asset against threats, its integration into India’s diverse fleet (Su-30MKI, Rafale, Tejas) would be complex and costly. The aircraft’s high maintenance burden, reliance on U.S. software and spare parts support, and logistical challenges in high-altitude operations raise concerns. Additionally, India’s deep defence ties with Russia and its commitment to strategic autonomy could complicate an F-35 deal. The U.S. has been selective about F-35 exports, prioritising NATO allies and key Pacific partners, making approval for India uncertain. With unit costs exceeding $80 million and long-term sustainment expenses, the F-35 may not be the most cost-effective option compared to expanding Rafale squadrons or accelerating the indigenous AMCA program.

Russia’s Pitch: The Su-57 Felon. Russia is presenting the Su-57 Felon as a possible solution for India’s air power needs. The offer is sugar quoted with an offer to reduce price, Integration of hypersonic weapons, ToT and easy payment options. The Su-57, initially designated the PAK FA (Prospective Airborne Complex of Frontline Aviation), began development in the early 2000s under the Russian Ministry of Defence. The aircraft was conceived as a multirole stealth fighter capable of air superiority and ground attack missions. Given India’s deep-rooted defence ties with Russia and its existing fleet of Su-30MKI fighters, Moscow sees this as a natural extension of its strategic partnership. However, India has been cautious about procuring the Su-57 due to previous setbacks in the Indo-Russian Fifth Generation Fighter Aircraft (FGFA) project. While the Su-57 has promising features, the program has faced several challenges that have slowed its development and deployment. The aircraft has faced delays related to engine development and avionics integration.  Moreover, there have been questions about the production rate and the number of aircraft that will be built in the coming years. The Russian Air Force has been slow to field the aircraft, and it remains unclear how many Su-57s will ultimately be deployed, particularly as Russia faces significant budgetary constraints and competing priorities.

Comparative Analysis. The Su-57’s development and operational capabilities are often compared to the U.S. F-22 Raptor and F-35 Lightning II, representing American stealth technology’s pinnacle. While the Su-57 has similar features, such as stealth and advanced avionics, it lags in some performance areas. For example, the F-22 is generally considered superior regarding stealth and overall aerodynamics, while the F-35 is unrivalled in sensor fusion and multirole capabilities. However, the Su-57 holds unique advantages that could make it a formidable platform in specific scenarios. Its super manoeuvrability and advanced sensor capabilities make it highly suited for air-to-air combat and could give it an edge over Western fighters in certain situations. Moreover, its weapons capacity and the potential future integration of hypersonic weapons give it a longer-range and more potent offensive capability than current Western fighters.

 

Indigenous Effort.

Push for Indigenous Development: The AMCA Program. India’s exit from the Su-57 program signalled a renewed focus on indigenous development. Under pressure to modernise and enhance its capabilities, India pushed to develop its fifth-generation fighter. The Advanced Medium Combat Aircraft (AMCA) program was born out of this necessity. The AMCA was conceived as India’s first fully indigenous fifth-generation fighter. The project envisions incorporating stealth, advanced avionics, supercruise and multi-role capabilities. While the AMCA represents a significant leap forward for India’s indigenous defence capabilities, its development has not been without challenges. The program has faced technological hurdles, financial constraints, and inordinate delays. The prototype of the AMCA is expected to take flight in the late 2020s, with full-scale production not anticipated until the early 2040s. The AMCA is crucial to India’s long-term defence strategy. Its delayed timeline and high costs mean the country must consider alternatives soon to fill the capability gap.

Effect on the AMCA Development. India’s procurement of foreign fifth-generation fighter aircraft could positively or negatively affect the development of its Advanced Medium Combat Aircraft (AMCA) program. On the one hand, it could gain valuable insights into the design and technology of a fifth-generation fighter aircraft, including stealth capabilities, advanced avionics, and engine performance. This could accelerate the learning curve for Indian engineers and help improve AMCA’s design.​ On the other hand, foreign procurement could divert attention and resources from the AMCA project, as both programs require significant investment and focus. This could delay AMCA’s development as funding and manpower may be reallocated. While foreign procurement might provide a short-term solution, procuring it would reinforce India’s dependency on foreign technology, which contradicts the AMCA’s goal of achieving greater self-reliance in defence technology. It might also delay the domestic innovation necessary to produce the AMCA independently.

 

Procurement Considerations: A Tight Rope Walk.

 India’s pursuit of fifth-generation fighter aircraft (FGFA) is a complex balancing act, requiring careful evaluation of strategic, operational, and geopolitical factors. Despite the aggressive pitches from Russia and the U.S., India remains steadfast in its commitment to self-reliance. The country has several valid concerns about acquiring stealth fighters from external sources. The procurement decision must balance national security imperatives with long-term self-reliance goals.

Financial Constraints. While the need for advanced fighter aircraft is pressing, India’s defence budget remains constrained. The costs of acquiring 5th-gen fighters—whether through foreign procurement or domestic development—are substantial.

Strategic Autonomy. India has historically maintained strategic autonomy in defence procurement.  Outright procurement of fifth-generation fighters would increase dependency on foreign suppliers for maintenance, spares, and software updates. However, developing an indigenous FGFA is time-intensive and costly, necessitating interim solutions such as collaborations or selective acquisitions. Balancing these factors ensures India can act independently in future conflicts without external constraints.

Operational Sovereignty. Fifth-generation fighters rely heavily on integrated software, sensor fusion, and artificial intelligence, requiring continuous updates and security oversight. Procuring an FGFA from the U.S. or Russia may come with software black boxes, limiting India’s ability to modify or customise the aircraft to suit its operational needs. In contrast, an indigenous program like the AMCA would ensure complete control over mission configurations, electronic warfare systems, and weapons integration.  India risks operational constraints without complete control in scenarios where its strategic interests diverge from supplier nations.

Transfer of Technology (ToT). India has consistently demanded significant technology transfer as part of its defence procurements. One of the most crucial considerations in FGFA procurement is access to critical technologies such as stealth coatings, advanced radar systems, and aero engines. Nations that export fifth-generation fighters typically impose strict restrictions on technology transfers to protect proprietary designs and maintain their competitive edge. India must negotiate deals that ensure meaningful technology absorption, aiding AMCA’s long-term development.

Interoperability Issues. India operates a diverse fleet comprising Russian, French, Israeli, and indigenous aircraft, leading to interoperability challenges. Integrating an FGFA with existing platforms is critical, especially for network-centric warfare. American platforms, such as the F-35, rely on proprietary Link 16 data-sharing protocols, which may not be compatible with India’s indigenous combat management systems. On the other hand, Russian fighters align with existing IAF infrastructure but lack the networking capabilities of Western aircraft. Any FGFA procurement must ensure seamless integration with India’s Integrated Air Command and Control System (IACCS) while avoiding security vulnerabilities tied to foreign command structures.

Reliance and Reliability Concerns. Fifth-generation fighters require a robust supply chain for spare parts, software updates, and maintenance. India’s experience with Russian platforms, such as the Su-30MKI, has shown that supply bottlenecks can impact fleet availability. Similarly, reliance on the U.S. for F-35 components could expose India to geopolitical leverage, where supply disruptions may occur due to policy shifts. An indigenous FGFA would mitigate these risks. However, India must bridge the gap in manufacturing critical components, such as high-thrust jet engines and low-observable coatings, to ensure long-term sustainability.

Geopolitical Pressures. India’s FGFA decision is deeply entangled in global power dynamics. Acquiring an American fighter would enhance ties with QUAD allies (U.S., Japan, Australia) but could strain India’s strategic partnership with Russia. Conversely, a Russian FGFA might provoke U.S. sanctions under CAATSA (Countering America’s Adversaries Through Sanctions Act), complicating India’s defence cooperation with Western nations. Thus, any procurement choice must navigate these external influences without compromising national security.

 

Way Ahead

India’s quest for fifth-generation fighter aircraft is emblematic of the broader challenges emerging powers face in the 21st century. While the country has made significant strides in developing Indigenous defence capabilities, the path to acquiring fifth-generation fighters remains fraught with challenges. The choices India makes in the coming years will shape its defence posture and air superiority in the decades ahead.  While the AMCA holds promise for India’s long-term goals, the immediate need for advanced fighter aircraft means that foreign options, including the F-35 or SU-57, will likely remain in play despite the geopolitical and financial challenges they present.

India’s success in this endeavour will depend on its ability to integrate technology, manage its defence budget, and forge strategic partnerships that advance its security interests in a rapidly evolving global landscape. Given the complexity of fifth-generation fighter procurement, India must focus on accelerating the AMCA program while exploring selective technology partnerships. A dedicated task force with a top-down approach could ensure timely execution. Increased funding, private sector involvement, and strategic technology acquisitions could further bolster the program.

India must balance Indigenous development with the need for foreign procurement while navigating a complex geopolitical landscape. While India will likely continue seeking a combination of foreign procurements and domestic development, the path forward will require careful navigation of technological and strategic challenges. Ultimately, India’s ability to field a fleet of 5th-gen fighters will depend on its ability to balance these competing demands while securing the necessary resources and partnerships to maintain its regional and global standing.

 

Conclusion

The stealth fighter war is not just about aircraft but about India’s position in the global defence landscape. The choices made in the coming years will define India’s air power for decades. While Aero India 2025 will serve as a grand stage for the U.S. and Russia to showcase their best fighters, India must navigate this battle carefully. Whether it chooses a limited acquisition, a joint development initiative, or a complete rejection of external options, one thing is clear: India’s future in stealth aviation will be determined by its ability to balance strategic autonomy with practical air power needs.

 

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References and credits

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Pics Courtesy: Internet

Disclaimer:

Information and data included in the blog are for educational & non-commercial purposes only and have been carefully adapted, excerpted, or edited from reliable and accurate sources. All copyrighted material belongs to respective owners and is provided only for wider dissemination.

References:-

  1. Dyer, G. (2017). India’s Role in Global Security: An Assessment of Its Military and Strategic Options. Oxford University Press. Covers India’s military strategies and defence procurement policies, giving context to its fifth-generation fighter aircraft decisions.
  1. Tiwari, R. (2020). India’s Aviation Power: The Development of India’s Military Aviation. Routledge. This book focuses on India’s aviation capabilities, history, and future trajectory, including the fifth-generation fighter aircraft.
  1. Sarma, B. (2021). Fifth-Generation Aircraft and the Changing Nature of Air Combat: A Global Perspective. Springer. This book analyses the technologies and capabilities defining fifth-generation aircraft and how different countries adopt them.
  1. Pant, H. V. (2018). India’s Strategic Culture and Military Modernisation: A Cross-Disciplinary Approach. Routledge. Offers insight into India’s military modernisation strategies and how they affect decisions about future aircraft acquisitions.
  1. Bansal, S. (2022). “Fifth-Generation Fighter Aircraft: The India Dilemma”, Strategic Affairs Journal, 14(3), pp. 245-268. This article addresses India’s balancing act between domestic capabilities, foreign partnerships, and defence priorities regarding fifth-generation fighters.
  1. Chaudhury, S. (2020). “India’s Ambitious Fighter Program and the Quest for the AMCA”, The Military Review, 102(4), pp. 60-75. A detailed analysis of India’s AMCA project and the prospects of its success in the context of competing international options.
  1. Indian Ministry of Defence (2021). India’s Future Aircraft Procurement Strategy: A Vision for the Next Decade. Government of India. Government-published paper detailing India’s strategic requirements and procurement strategy, including pursuing fifth-generation fighters.
  1. RAND Corporation (2021). “Fifth-Generation Fighter Aircraft: A Global Overview”. RAND Corporation. A comprehensive analysis of the global fifth-generation fighter market, including India’s potential partners and competitors.
  1. IHS Jane’s Defence Weekly (2019). “The Future of Combat Aircraft: A Comparative Study”, 56(8), pp. 32-45. This report compares the capabilities of fifth-generation fighters, focusing on the Su-57, F-35, and AMCA, with a section on India’s defence procurement options.
  1. Shukla, A. (2021). “India’s Fighter Jet Dilemma: Will AMCA Be the Answer?” Livefist Defence. https://www.livefistdefence.com. A detailed exploration of the AMCA program and India’s obstacles in developing its fifth-generation aircraft.

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611: GREENLAND’S RISING IMPORTANCE: A STRATEGIC ASSET IN GLOBAL SECURITY

 

 

My Article published in the Newsanalytics Journal Mar 25.

 

Greenland is the world’s largest island, located in the Arctic, to the northeast of Canada. Politically, it is an autonomous territory of Denmark, though it has its own government and parliament. With a landmass of approximately 2.16 million square kilometers, Greenland is sparsely populated, with a population of around 56,000 people, most of whom live along the island’s coast. The majority of Greenland’s land is covered by an ice sheet, which holds a significant portion of the world’s freshwater. This ice sheet is vital to global climate patterns, as its melting could raise sea levels and disrupt ocean currents. While Greenland is rich in natural resources such as minerals, oil, and gas, its remote location and harsh environment make resource extraction challenging. Due to its strategic location, it has historically been important to both European and American interests, particularly during the Cold War, when the U.S. established military bases there.

 

Recent Limelight. Greenland has recently been at the center of international attention due to renewed interest from the United States in acquiring the territory. In December 2024, President Donald Trump reiterated his proposal for the U.S. to purchase Greenland from Denmark, citing national security concerns. This proposal builds upon a similar offer made during his first term, which was declined by the Danish government. In response to these developments, 85% of Greenlanders oppose the idea of becoming part of the United States. Greenland’s Prime Minister, Múte Egede, has emphasised that while Greenland is open to discussions about common interests with the U.S., the island is not for sale. The situation has led to increased diplomatic activity, with Denmark announcing plans to invest 14.6 billion crowns ($2.04 billion) to bolster its military presence in the Arctic. European leaders have also expressed support for Denmark, highlighting Greenland’s strategic importance in global geopolitics. These events underscore Greenland’s significant role in international affairs, particularly concerning Arctic sovereignty, natural resources, and global security dynamics.

 

 

 

Greenland’s Resource Potential. Greenland has vast natural resources, including rare earth elements, uranium, oil, and gas. These resources are essential for global industries, including defence, technology, and renewable energy. While Greenland’s government has moved away from oil exploration, its untapped reserves remain a strategic interest for global energy markets. Greenland’s waters are among the richest fishing grounds, a key economic driver and a point of interest for international players. As climate change makes resource extraction more feasible, Greenland faces a dilemma between economic development and environmental protection. Foreign mining and energy investment must balance economic benefits with sustainability concerns and geopolitical risks.

 

Strategic Location: Trade Routes. Greenland’s location in the North Atlantic and Arctic regions makes it an invaluable strategic asset. It lies between North America and Europe, serving as a crucial link for military and trade operations. The island provides access to key shipping lanes, including the emerging Arctic sea routes, which are becoming more navigable. As Arctic ice melts, new shipping lanes such as the Northwest Passage and the Northern Sea Route are opening up, reducing travel distances between Asia, Europe, and North America. Control over Greenland enhances the ability to monitor and regulate these routes, making it a strategic chokepoint in global trade.

 

Strategic Location: Militarily: Additionally, Greenland’s airspace and maritime routes are crucial for transatlantic military logistics. In any potential conflict in the North Atlantic, control over Greenland would be pivotal for ensuring dominance in the region. Greenland provides a staging ground for air and naval operations in both the Atlantic and Arctic, making it essential for NATO’s security umbrella. The U.S. maintains Thule Air Base in northern Greenland, a key component of the North American early-warning defence system. Thule is home to a ballistic missile early warning radar and a deep-space surveillance system.

 

Superpower Rivalries in Greenland

 

The Arctic as a New Global Arena. Greenland, the world’s largest island, has become an increasingly significant player in global geopolitics. Its strategic position in the Arctic, vast natural resources, and the effects of climate change have heightened interest from global superpowers such as the United States, Russia, and China. As geopolitical tensions rise, Greenland’s role in security, trade, and military strategy continues to expand, making it a focal point of international competition.

 

U.S. Interests and Military Presence. The United States has long viewed Greenland as an essential part of its Arctic strategy and has maintained a strategic presence in Greenland for decades. During World War II, the U.S. took over defence responsibilities for Greenland from Denmark to prevent German occupation. Since then, it has remained a key ally in Arctic security. In 2019, former U.S. President Donald Trump proposed purchasing Greenland from Denmark, highlighting its strategic importance. Though Denmark and Greenland rejected the proposal, it underscored the island’s increasing geopolitical value. The U.S. has continued to strengthen ties with Greenland through economic aid and security cooperation, recognising its role in countering Russian and Chinese influence in the Arctic.

 

Russian Expansion in the Arctic. Moscow views the Arctic as crucial for national security, energy extraction, and global influence. Russia has been actively expanding its Arctic military capabilities, reopening Soviet-era bases, deploying new icebreaker ships, and establishing Arctic brigades. The country considers the Arctic a key strategic frontier for national security and resource exploitation. Russia’s growing military infrastructure, including reported hypersonic missile deployments and submarine operations, has heightened concerns among NATO allies.

 

China’s Economic and Strategic Interests. China identifies itself as a “near-Arctic state” and has actively sought economic opportunities in Greenland, investing heavily in Arctic infrastructure, scientific research, and resource extraction. Greenland’s rare earth minerals are mainly of interest to China, which seeks to diversify its supply chains. China has also pursued scientific research in the Arctic, positioning itself as a key player in Arctic governance. However, its increasing presence has alarmed Western powers, who view Beijing’s activities as part of a broader strategy to expand its geopolitical influence. In 2018, the United States successfully pressured Denmark to block Chinese investments in Greenland’s airport infrastructure, fearing potential military implications. In 2021, Greenland’s newly elected government banned uranium mining, blocking a major Chinese-backed project. This decision was seen as a move to limit Chinese influence in the region and align more closely with Western allies.

 

 

Greenland’s Political Landscape and Future Prospects. Greenland is an autonomous territory within the Kingdom of Denmark, with its own government and growing aspirations for independence. While it relies on Denmark for defence and financial support, Greenland has sought greater economic and political autonomy. For Greenland, balancing economic development with national security concerns remains a challenge. Denmark has recognised Greenland’s strategic importance and has increased its Arctic military budget. In 2024, Denmark announced a $2 billion investment to enhance its Arctic security capabilities, reinforcing its commitment to maintaining stability in the region. The U.S. has shown interest in strengthening ties with Greenland outside of Danish influence and its role in NATO could grow, given its strategic military importance. The island’s leadership must navigate pressures from global powers while ensuring sustainable growth and environmental protection.

 

Conclusion. Greenland is not just a remote ice-covered island, it is a critical player in global security dynamics. Its location, resources, and military significance make it a key area of interest for major powers, including the United States, Russia, and China. As Arctic geopolitics intensify, Greenland’s strategic importance will only increase. Whether through military cooperation, resource management, or diplomatic engagements, Greenland will remain at the heart of global power dynamics in the 21st century. Ensuring its stability and security will be crucial for maintaining Arctic balance and broader global stability.

 

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References and credits

To all the online sites and channels.

References:-

  1. Bader, Julia, and C. D. E. O’Neil. Arctic Geopolitics: Security, Resources, and the Shifting Balance of Power in the Arctic. New York: Routledge, 2019.
  1. Smith, M. L. R. The Arctic and World Order: Climate Change, Security and the Future of the Global Commons. New York: Oxford University Press, 2020.
  1. Friedrich, Daniel, and Stefan Sommer. “Greenland’s Strategic Importance: A New Cold War?” Journal of International Security Studies 28, no. 3 (2022): 45-67.
  1. Young, Oran R. “The Geopolitics of Greenland: Great Power Rivalry in the Arctic.” International Journal of Arctic Studies 13, no. 2 (2019): 103-123.
  1. McGovern, Mike. “Climate Change and the Arctic: Security Risks and Strategic Opportunities.” Security Studies Review 12, no. 4 (2021): 78-94.
  1. Norwegian Institute for Defense Studies. Greenland: A Military Asset for the West? Oslo: Norwegian Institute for Defense Studies, 2023.
  1. Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS). The Arctic as a Strategic Frontier: Greenland’s Role in U.S. Defense and Foreign Policy. Washington, D.C.: CSIS, 2020.
  1. RAND Corporation. The Geopolitical Implications of Arctic Resource Extraction and Military Infrastructure in Greenland. Santa Monica: RAND, 2021.
  1. The Guardian. “Greenland’s Changing Role in Global Geopolitics.” The Guardian, July 14, 2023.
  2. BBC News. “Greenland’s Military Significance in the Arctic: A New Era.” BBC News, March 5, 2022.
  1. Foreign Policy. “Greenland’s Geostrategic Location: The Next Global Flashpoint?” Foreign Policy, August 3, 2021.
  2. The Arctic Institute. “Greenland’s Military Infrastructure and U.S. Strategic Interests in the Arctic.” The Arctic Institute, August 2022.

Disclaimer:

Information and data included in the blog are for educational & non-commercial purposes only and have been carefully adapted, excerpted, or edited from reliable and accurate sources. All copyrighted material belongs to respective owners and is provided only for wider dissemination.

 

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609: ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE: SHIFTING THE BALANCE OF POWER

 

Presented my paper at the Forum for Global Studies (Mar 25)

 

Artificial Intelligence (AI) transforms global power structures, challenging traditional geopolitical, economic, and military balances. As AI develops accelerated, nations, corporations, and non-state actors increasingly leverage its capabilities to gain strategic advantages. This paper examines AI’s role in reshaping power dynamics, focusing on military applications, economic competitiveness, and political influence.

 

AI in Military Power Projection

Artificial Intelligence (AI) revolutionises military power structures, reshaping warfare, defence strategies, and geopolitical dominance. Nations investing in AI-driven military capabilities gain strategic advantages in battlefield efficiency, intelligence processing, and autonomous systems. Integrating AI in military systems enhances combat efficiency, decision-making speed, and operational effectiveness. AI-powered platforms process vast amounts of data in real-time, improving strategic responses and minimising human intervention in combat.

Autonomous Weapons Systems. Autonomous weapons, also known as lethal autonomous weapon systems (LAWS), utilise AI to identify and engage targets without direct human intervention. These systems revolutionise modern warfare by increasing precision and reducing risks to human soldiers. One of the primary advantages of autonomous weapons is the reduction of human casualties. AI-driven combat systems lower risks for soldiers by automating dangerous missions and keeping human personnel out of harm’s way. Additionally, these systems enhance operational efficiency, as AI-powered drones and robots can operate continuously without fatigue, improving battlefield endurance. Another significant benefit is precision targeting, where AI-enhanced targeting minimises collateral damage, increasing mission accuracy and reducing unintended casualties. Despite these advantages, autonomous weapons raise serious concerns. One major issue is accountability—determining responsibility for autonomous strikes remains a significant challenge. Another risk is the potential for escalation, as AI-driven weapons could lead to rapid, unintended conflicts that spiral out of control. Furthermore, regulatory challenges persist as international treaties struggle to govern AI-enabled autonomous combat systems, making enforcing oversight and ethical considerations difficult.

AI in Cyber Warfare. AI’s role in cyber warfare has transformed digital defence and offensive capabilities. Machine learning algorithms enhance cyber security by detecting and mitigating cyber threats in real time, while AI-driven attacks exploit vulnerabilities with unprecedented sophistication. AI-generated malware is one of the most dangerous offensive cyber tools, as it can adapt and evolve to bypass security protocols. Automated phishing attacks leverage AI-driven social engineering techniques to manipulate targets with precision. Deepfake disinformation campaigns use AI-generated content to disrupt enemy morale and destabilise societies by spreading false narratives. On the defensive side, AI-driven systems play a crucial role in cyber threat detection by analysing network traffic to identify threats before breaches occur. Automated response mechanisms enable AI-powered security systems to neutralise cyber attacks without human intervention. Moreover, predictive intelligence based on behavioural analysis allows AI to anticipate and mitigate future cyber threats, enhancing overall cyber security resilience.

AI in Surveillance and Reconnaissance. AI-enhanced surveillance systems improve intelligence gathering, target tracking, and situational awareness. Military reconnaissance benefits from AI-powered drones, satellites, and sensor networks, which monitor adversaries and assess battlefield conditions in real time. Satellite intelligence (SATINT) uses AI to analyse satellite imagery and detect military activity, providing strategic insights. Unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs), equipped with AI capabilities, conduct reconnaissance missions and precisely track enemy movements. Additionally, AI-powered facial and behaviour recognition systems enhance security by identifying potential threats based on biometric analysis.

AI-Enhanced Decision-Making and Command Systems. AI augments military decision-making by analysing complex battlefield scenarios, optimising strategies, and providing commanders with data-driven insights. AI-enhanced decision-making leverages machine learning algorithms to analyse battlefield scenarios, optimise logistics, and predict enemy movements, strengthening command and control operations. Predictive analytics allows AI to anticipate enemy movements and suggest optimal responses, improving strategic planning. Automated resource allocation ensures that AI optimises supply chain logistics and troop deployment efficiently. Lastly, real-time battle simulations enable AI to generate war-gaming scenarios, enhancing military preparedness and strategic readiness.

 

Economic Competitiveness and AI Dominance

Economic power is increasingly tied to AI capabilities. AI enhances productivity, optimises supply chains, and enables rapid decision-making, all contributing to economic growth. Artificial Intelligence (AI) is transforming global economic power structures, redefining industries, and reshaping competition between nations. Countries and corporations that leverage AI to drive productivity, innovation, and automation gain a significant competitive edge in the global economy. Nations leading in AI research and development (R&D) set the standards for global technology markets and influence digital trade regulations. They are setting the stage for economic dominance in the 21st century. Key Areas of AI-Driven Economic Transformation are as follows:-

    • Automation and Productivity Gains. AI-powered robotics and software streamline manufacturing, logistics, and service sectors, boosting efficiency and reducing costs.
    • Big Data and AI Analytics. AI processes vast datasets, enabling businesses to make data-driven decisions, predict market trends, and personalise customer experiences.
    • AI in Financial Services. AI-driven algorithms optimise trading strategies, fraud detection, and risk management, increasing financial sector efficiency.
    • AI in Healthcare and Biotechnology. AI enhances medical diagnostics, drug discovery, and personalised medicine, improving healthcare delivery and economic gains in the biotech industry.
    • Smart Manufacturing and Industry 4.0. AI integrates with IoT (Internet of Things) to create intelligent factories, optimise production processes, and reduce waste.
    • AI’s Role in Shaping Global Trade and Economic Power. The AI revolution is reshaping international trade dynamics, giving AI-dominant economies significant leverage in global markets.
    • AI in Supply Chain Optimisation. AI enhances logistics, demand forecasting, and inventory management, reducing inefficiencies and costs.
    • Competitive Edge in Export Markets. AI-powered automation lowers production costs, making AI-leading countries more competitive in global trade.
    • AI in Trade Negotiations. AI-driven predictive analytics help policymakers and corporations anticipate trade patterns and negotiate better trade deals.
    • AI and Global Economic Disparities. Countries lacking AI infrastructure risk economic marginalisation. Large corporations and AI-leading nations dominate industries, reducing competition and economic diversity. Nations controlling AI-driven data economies gain disproportionate economic power.
    • AI and Labour Market Transformations. AI is reshaping the workforce by automating tasks, displacing traditional jobs, and creating new AI-driven employment opportunities.
    • Job Displacement. AI-driven automation replaces routine and repetitive manufacturing, retail, and customer service jobs.
    • Emergence of AI-Centric Roles. AI creates demand for data scientists, AI engineers, and machine learning specialists.
    • Up Skilling and Reskilling Needs. Governments and corporations must invest in workforce retraining to adapt to AI-driven job market changes.
    • Gig Economy and AI Integration. The gig economy is a labour market characterised by short-term, flexible, and freelance work instead of permanent jobs. It includes independent contractors, temporary workers, and freelancers who typically find work through AI-driven digital platforms. These platforms enable new forms of flexible employment but raise concerns about job security and fair wages.

 

AI and Political Influence

AI is reshaping governance, diplomacy, and social control. Governments use AI-driven surveillance, information campaigns, and predictive analytics to maintain domestic stability and project influence abroad. Artificial Intelligence (AI) rapidly transforms global political landscapes, reshaping governance, diplomacy, and geopolitical power structures.  AI enables governments and political entities to wield significant influence by analysing vast datasets, predicting voter behaviour, and automating propaganda. Its impact extends to election processes, public policy, and international relations, redefining the mechanisms of political power.

Key Areas of AI-Driven Political Influence

    • AI in Political Campaigns. AI-powered tools analyse voter sentiment, craft personalised messaging, and optimise campaign strategies.
    • Social Media Manipulation. AI-driven bots and deepfake technology amplify political narratives, shape public discourse, and manipulate opinions.
    • AI in Policy Decision-Making. AI models provide data-driven insights to optimise governance and public administration.
    • Surveillance and Political Control. Governments use AI for mass surveillance, influencing public behaviour and suppressing dissent.
    • AI in Diplomacy and Geopolitical Strategy. AI enhances foreign policy decisions, intelligence gathering, and crisis management.
    • AI and Electoral Processes. AI has revolutionised election strategies, allowing political entities to predict outcomes, micro-target voters, and optimise campaign engagement. However, it also raises concerns about election security and fairness.
    • Voter Behaviour Analysis. AI assesses demographic trends, political inclinations, and key voter concerns.
    • Automated Political Advertising. AI optimises ad targeting, ensuring messages reach the most receptive audiences.
    • Chatbots for Political Outreach. AI-powered virtual assistants interact with voters, answering questions and reinforcing campaign narratives.
    • Bias in AI Algorithms. AI-driven decision-making can reinforce political biases and favour specific groups.
    • Cyber security Threats. AI-powered hacking and misinformation attacks threaten electoral integrity.
    • AI in Governance and Public Policy. AI transforms governance by enhancing policy-making efficiency, automating administrative tasks, and predicting socio-political trends.
    • Predictive Governance. AI analyses socio-economic data to forecast public needs and policy outcomes.
    • Automated Bureaucracy. AI streamlines governmental operations, reducing inefficiencies in administrative processes.
    • Crisis Management. AI-driven simulations assist policymakers in responding to economic and security crises.
    • AI in International Relations and Diplomacy. AI plays a crucial role in global politics by enhancing diplomatic strategies, intelligence analysis, and conflict resolution efforts.
    • AI-Powered Negotiations. AI-driven models assist diplomats in formulating negotiation strategies.
    • Predictive Conflict Analysis. AI anticipates political conflicts, enabling pre-emptive diplomatic interventions.
    • AI Arms Race. Leading nations compete to develop AI-driven cyber warfare and autonomous defence systems.
    • AI in Soft Power Strategy. Nations leverage AI-driven media to project ideological influence worldwide.

 

AI in Strategic Competition between Nations

The United States and China are at the forefront of AI development, engaging in an AI arms race with significant geopolitical implications. Both nations invest heavily in AI research, infrastructure, and applications to gain technological dominance.  Leading military powers, including the United States, China, and Russia, invest in AI-driven defence programs to secure strategic dominance. AI’s role in military technology has sparked an arms race with implications for global security and power dynamics.

 

The U.S. Approach to AI. The United States adopts a collaborative approach to AI development, leveraging partnerships between the government, universities, and major technology companies like Google, Microsoft, and OpenAI. The Department of Defence prioritises AI integration into defence, intelligence, and cyber capabilities, ensuring national security remains at the forefront of innovation. Regulatory frameworks aim to balance technological advancement with ethical concerns, ensuring AI development aligns with democratic values. The U.S. also strengthens AI research collaborations with allies to maintain a competitive edge over global rivals. The Pentagon invests heavily in AI-powered defence initiatives, including autonomous combat systems such as AI-driven drones and robotic warfare units. Additionally, AI is critical in intelligence analysis, enhancing counterterrorism and national security efforts. Economically, the U.S. fosters AI-driven innovation through public-private partnerships, Silicon Valley startups, and research institutions, ensuring that AI remains a key driver of economic growth. The U.S. also promotes AI governance through regulatory and ethical frameworks to balance innovation with consumer protection.

China’s AI Strategy. China’s AI development is largely state-led, with the government investing heavily in research and innovation to advance its global influence. AI plays a significant role in surveillance and social control, as the Chinese Communist Party employs AI-driven social credit systems and mass surveillance technologies to maintain political stability. AI is also integrated into key economic sectors such as manufacturing, finance, and e-commerce, strengthening China’s position as an economic powerhouse. Militarily, AI is a core component of China’s modernisation strategy, enhancing autonomous warfare systems and cyber capabilities. China has also incorporated AI into its military doctrine for intelligence gathering, cyber warfare, and autonomous combat strategies. The country’s extensive AI-driven surveillance infrastructure further supports military intelligence operations. In its broader economic strategy, China integrates AI into smart cities, digital payments, and urban planning while utilising AI-backed automation to modernise manufacturing and increase global competitiveness.

The European Union’s AI Approach. The European Union takes a regulatory and ethical approach to AI, prioritising governance, data privacy, and consumer protection while fostering technological innovation. The EU is a global leader in AI regulation, ensuring that AI development aligns with democratic values and ethical standards. AI is also widely utilised in sustainability and green technology, helping to optimise energy efficiency and reduce carbon footprints. Additionally, the EU promotes cross-border AI research collaborations, encouraging multinational efforts to advance AI technologies and maintain global competitiveness. The EU aims to set an international standard for responsible AI governance by focusing on ethical AI development and environmental applications.

 

India’s AI Approach and Strategy

India’s AI strategy is driven by a vision of “AI for All,” focusing on leveraging artificial intelligence to enhance economic growth, social development, and global competitiveness. The government recognises AI as a transformative force and has taken significant steps to integrate AI into various sectors. NITI Aayog’s National Strategy for Artificial Intelligence (NSAI) is the foundation for India’s AI roadmap, identifying healthcare, agriculture, education, smart cities, and mobility as priority areas. The government aims to position India as a global AI powerhouse while ensuring equitable access to AI technologies. India’s approach is unique as it balances innovation with ethical considerations, focusing on AI’s potential to address societal challenges such as poverty, healthcare accessibility, and job creation.

One of the key pillars of India’s AI strategy is the IndiaAI Mission, which focuses on building a robust AI ecosystem through public-private partnerships, investments in research and development, and AI-driven entrepreneurship. The government promotes AI startups through initiatives like Startup India and dedicated AI research hubs, ensuring that domestic innovation thrives. The Centre for Artificial Intelligence and Robotics (CAIR) under the Defence Research and Development Organisation (DRDO) plays a crucial role in the defence, cybersecurity, and automation of AI applications. The National Programme on AI, led by NITI Aayog, also works towards creating a data-driven economy where AI-powered solutions enhance governance, business processes, and public services.

The economic impact of AI in India is substantial, with AI projected to add $967 billion to India’s economy by 2035. AI is being integrated into key industries such as manufacturing, fintech, healthcare, and agriculture to boost efficiency and productivity. In manufacturing, AI-powered automation and robotics are helping industries reduce costs and improve precision. The financial sector benefits from AI-driven fraud detection, risk assessment, and customer service automation, enhancing the efficiency of banks and fintech firms. The agricultural sector is also witnessing a transformation with AI-driven predictive analytics, smart irrigation, and precision farming, improving yields and reducing resource wastage.

The Indian government also focuses on ethical AI development and regulation to ensure fairness, transparency, and accountability. The Personal Data Protection Bill aims to regulate data usage, ensuring user privacy and security. India is also active in global AI discussions, advocating for responsible AI governance on international platforms. The government is working on AI policies that promote inclusivity while preventing misuse, such as bias in algorithms and unethical surveillance. AI literacy and workforce skilling are also critical components of India’s AI strategy, with initiatives like FutureSkills Prime and Skill India training professionals in AI, machine learning, and data science to meet industry demands.

With a rapidly growing AI ecosystem, strong government support, and an increasing focus on indigenous AI solutions, India is poised to become a leading player in the global AI landscape. By prioritising innovation, ethical governance, and AI-driven development, India aims to harness AI’s full potential for economic progress, digital transformation, and social impact, ensuring that AI benefits reach all segments of society.

 

Conclusion

The global balance of power is shifting as AI revolutionises military strategy, economic dominance, and political influence. While AI presents opportunities for innovation and growth, it also introduces risks of conflict escalation, economic disparity, and authoritarian expansion. As AI becomes increasingly integral to national security and economic strength, global governance mechanisms must evolve to mitigate AI-driven threats and promote equitable development. The race for AI supremacy will define the geopolitical landscape of the 21st century. Nations that successfully harness AI while maintaining ethical standards and international cooperation will emerge as dominant forces in the new world order.

 

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