Month: March 2022

Posted on

UKRAINE WAR: MAYBE THE BIRTH OF A NEW GLOBAL MONETARY ORDER

Pic courtesy: The Borgen Project (Internet)

 

Western Sanctions on Russia

 

  • The United States and European Union have frozen nearly half the Russian central bank’s $640-billion foreign exchange reserves held in banks outside Russia.

 

  • Russian companies have been debarred from doing transactions in dollars and euros.

 

  • 400 odd western firms have closed operations in Russia.

 

  • A majority of the Russian banks have been cut off from the SWIFT (Society for Worldwide Interbank Financial Telecommunication), which executes financial transactions and payments among banks worldwide.

 

Expected results

 

  • The sanctions and curbs were expected to result in a big sell-off of the rouble.

 

  • It was expected to create insolvency risks for the Russian economy.

 

Rouble Performance

  • The rouble was trading at around 76 before the invasion.

 

  • It went down to a record low of 139 on March 7.

 

  • The rouble appreciated to 83 to the dollar intraday on 29 Mar.

 

  • The rouble has recouped most of its losses.

 

Sanction Effect (So Far)

 

Considering the severity of European and American sanctions on Russia, the effect on the rouble is modest. The recovery in the rouble suggests that the impact of the West’s economic sanctions is much lower than anticipated.

 

Likely reasons

 

  • European countries continue to buy oil and gas from Russia. The European Union gets 40 percent of its natural gas from Russia.

 

  • Major emerging markets (including China) continue to trade with Russia.

 

  • The biggest jump in the rouble occurred when the Russian president announced that unfriendly countries (EU, USA, Canada, Australia, New Zealand, Japan, South Korea, and Taiwan) would have to pay in roubles. This increased the demand for the rouble.

 

Implications

 

  • Energy Crisis. The sanctions on Russia might lead to a global energy crisis.

 

  • This could be the beginning of the de-dollarisation of global trade, especially in oil and gas.

 

  • This could be the beginning of a new global monetary order.

 

  • The new monetary order could be based on commodity-based currencies.

 

  • This would weaken the Eurodollar system.

 

It is wait and watch for long term repercussions.

 

Bottom Line

It is all about Money.

 

Question

Is this the end of the Petro-Dollar?

 

Suggestions and value additions are most welcome

 

Links to previous posts on Ukraine war:

USE OR NON USE OF AIRPOWER IN UKRAINE WAR

UKRAINE CRISIS & INDIA (02 FEB 22)

RUSSIA – UKRAINE CRISIS BLOWS UP: 24 FEB 22

UKRAINE CRISIS: A GAME OF DOG AND THE BONE

RUSSIA – UKRAINE CRISIS ESCALATES (24 FEB 22)

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References and Credits

To all the online news channels.

Posted on

INTERNATIONAL AEROSPACE SAFETY CONFERENCE 2022 (IASCON-22)

 

 

The international aerospace conference was conducted by the Indian Air Force recently. There were three sessions at the conference and the themes were as follows:

 

  • Session 1: Human error
  • Session 2: Maintenance safety
  • Session 3: Damage due to foreign objects and bird/animal strike.

 

I was lucky to be associated with the conference and it had lots of takeaways. The link to the video on excerpts is below:

 

 

For selective viewing click on the links below:

 

  • Summarising talk on FOD
    • Engine withdrawals
    • FOD prevention equipment becoming FOD source.
    • FOD at production agencies.
    • Alertness by everyone is essential.
  • Summarising talk on bird/animal strike.
    • Six verticals of anti-bird measures (habitat, exclusion, harassment, hard measures, platform features, and procedural)
    • Hazards due to reptiles and rodents.
    • Birds get used to the measures – need for constant change of measures.
    • Each airfield has its own peculiarities – it is not a one solution fits all.
    • Need for BIRDTAMS.
    • Environment control around the airfields.
    • Aircraft designs to prevent injury due to shattering of the canopy due to bird strike.
  • Q and A Session
    • Application of threat and error management concept to bird strike control.
    • Myth or reality – Birds fold their wings and dive down when threatened of collision.
  • Suggestions post-session 1 on Human error.
    • Importance of “ownership” in the flight safety culture (example of mother and child).
    • “It is my job – I will do it well and I will do it safely”.
    • CFIT – “Superior skill is required to avoid getting into dangerous situations rather than getting out of them”.
    • Review of carrot and stick policy of safety implementation.
    • Periodic assessment of “Risk Profile and Emotional Quotient” of the crew.
  • Suggestions post-session 2 on Maintenance safety
    • Increase of Flight safety element and weightage in the professional categorization tests.
    • Adverse effects of over monitoring.
    • Rules of delegation – “Don’t keep a dog and bark yourself”.

 

Bottom Line

Aerospace safety is everyone’s responsibility.

 

Question

Why do human beings insist on making their own mistakes rather than learning from others?

 

Suggestions and value additions are most welcome

 

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Posted on

SHIQURDU 27: जिंदगी

151

जिनको जल्दी थी, वो बढ़ चले मंज़िल की ओर

मैं समन्दर से राज, गहराई के सीखता रहा..!!

अकड होती तो, कब का टूट गया होता

 मैं था नाजुक डाली, जो सबके आगे झुकता रहा…

 

152

कभी टूट गया कभी तोड़ा गया

सौ बार मुझे फिर जोड़ा गया

यूँ ही लूट लूट के और मिट मिट के

 बनता ही रहा हूँ मैं

153

ज़मीं पर रह कर आसमान ढूँढ़ता रहा

अपनी ज़िन्दगी का मकाम ढूँढ़ता रहा

बहुत बेचैन सी  जिंदगी जी ली

ना  सुकून रहा,  ना आराम रहा

154

जिंदगी नदी सी बह गई मीलों कहीं..

देखता ही रह गया मैं घाट सा.. 

काश! मैं होता किनारा झील का

देख तो पाता उसे वर्षों खड़ा

155

चलो हंसने की कोई, हम वजह ढूंढते हैं,

जिधर न हो कोई ग़म, वो जगह ढूंढते हैं !

बहुत उड़ लिए ऊंचे आसमानों में यारो,

चलो जमीं पे ही कहीं,  सुकून ढूंढते हैं !

 

 

  • Shiqurdu is a collection of thoughts. Although an odd sounding name, but felt appropriate for the collection.

 

  • These are simplified quotes in Hurdu (Hurdu being a mix of Hindi and Urdu akin to Hinglish i.e., hindi and english). Although in some cases the language has been simplified but attempt has been made to retain the thought and the poetic flavor.

 

  • These thoughts have been picked up from various publications. Credit goes to all the original writers who penned down these deep meaning messages.

 

 

Comments  and value additions are most welcome

 

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