Day: February 24, 2022

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RUSSIA – UKRAINE CRISIS BLOWS UP: 24 FEB 22

 

Russian President Vladimir Putin orders Military Operation in Eastern Ukraine

Vladimir Putin has ordered a military operation in eastern Ukraine. Putin made the announcement in a televised speech.

Speech Highlights

  • Putin warned other countries that any attempt to interfere with the Russian action would lead to “consequences they have never seen.”
  • He blamed Ukraine for it and held the Ukrainian regime responsible for the bloodshed.
  • He also accused the US and its allies of ignoring Russia’s demand to prevent Ukraine from joining NATO.
  • He asked all Ukrainian servicemen to lay down arms and ensured their safe passage from the zone of combat.
  • Putin demanded that Ukraine accept Russian sovereignty over Crimea, which Russia annexed in 2014, and renounce its ambition of joining the North Atlantic Treaty Organization.

 

Ukraine claims a full-scale invasion by Russia

Russia has launched a full-scale invasion of Ukraine and is targeting cities with weapons strikes, Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba said in a tweet.

Ukraine reported rocket attacks on military facilities throughout Ukraine and that Russian troops had landed in the southern port cities of Odessa and Mariupol. Residents also reported hearing of artillery fire in the city’s eastern suburbs.

Explosions were heard before dawn in Ukraine’s capital Kyiv and the eastern port city of Mariupol, shortly after Russia’s President Vladimir Putin announced an operation to “demilitarise” the country.

 Cyber Warfare. Ukraine earlier had reported that her banks and government ministry websites were hit by a cyber-attack, and it blamed Russia for it.

 

Russia claims that separatists have asked for help against Ukraine

According to Russia, Separatist leaders in eastern Ukraine have appealed to Russian President Vladimir Putin for help in repelling the military aggression of the Kyiv regime.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy has said that Putin had not responded to a request to speak by phone. He said Ukraine posed no threat to Russia but would defend itself if attacked.

 

Clash of the Titans

President Joe Biden has called the move “an unprovoked and unjustified attack by Russian military forces”. He accused Russia of choosing a premeditated war that will bring a catastrophic loss of life and human suffering, He held Russia responsible for the death and destruction this attack would bring. He declared that the US and its allies and partners will respond in a united and decisive way.

 

Market in a Turmoil

Markets have taken a hit after these developments. Oil prices have soared past $100 for the first time in more than seven years. Russian military operations have resulted in carnage on Dalal Street. Stocks are bleeding in the red and investors have lost up to Rs 10 lakh crore in market value. Stocks also fell across Asia, with equities declining in Australia, Japan, and South Korea.

 

Effect on India

The crude oil market, as well as gas prices, are set to spiral further and put pressure on major oil importers like India. Soaring global crude oil prices pose a challenge to India’s financial stability.

Evacuation. AI is operating special AI flights to evacuate Indian nationals, mainly students from Kyiv. Two flights have evacuated 254 and 182 nationals respectively. Ukraine has shut down its airspace for all civilian flights. Any more evacuation flights will depend on the conditions in that country.

 

Reactions

The European Union, U.K., and the U.S. have all imposed fresh sanctions on Russia U.S.

President Joe Biden has announced expanded sanctions, with penalties hitting the builder of the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline and Russia’s corporate leadership.

Ukraine has requested an urgent meeting of the UN Security Council.

The EU has strongly urged Russia to refrain from any further escalatory actions.

United Nations Secretary-General Antonio Guterres has made a plea to Russian President Vladimir Putin to stop the war ‘in the name of humanity and to pull back the Russian troops.

 

Question

Will this escalate to a bigger war with more countries getting sucked in the conflict?

 

Suggestions and value additions are most welcome

 

Links to previous three posts on the subject:

UKRAINE CRISIS: A GAME OF DOG AND THE BONE

RUSSIA – UKRAINE CRISIS ESCALATES (24 FEB 22)

Latest on Ukraine-Russia Conflict (23 Feb 22)

 

 

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Posted on

UKRAINE CRISIS: A GAME OF DOG AND THE BONE

Pic Courtesy: Aljazeera

Ukraine, since independence in 1991 has been torn between its former Soviet masters (Russia) and the Western institutions (NATO) it wants to join.

 

Historical Background

Independence. In December 1991, Ukraine voted in favour of independence from the Soviet Union in a referendum. Russian President Boris Yeltsin accepted the vote and Russia, Ukraine and Belarus set up a Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS).

(Process of fall of the mighty Russian empire – USSR)

 

Agreement. In the aftermath of the end of the Cold War, Ukraine, Russia, the UK and the US in December 1994 agreed to respect the independence, sovereignty and borders of Ukraine. The agreement was in exchange for Ukraine abandoning the nuclear weapons it inherited from the Soviet Union.

(Action justified as it was required to control Nuclear Proliferation.)

 

Friendship Treaty. In May 1997 Russia and Ukraine signed a friendship treaty. It settled a key disagreement and allowed Russia to retain ownership of the majority of ships in the Black Sea fleet (based in Ukraine’s Crimea) in exchange of Moscow paying Kyiv a modest rent to use the port of Sebastopol. Moscow also remained Kyiv’s most important commercial partner, with Ukraine totally dependent on Russian oil and gas.

(Treaty heavily in favour of Russia – but Ukraine had to accept it)

 

Economic Push and Pull.

In 2003, Ukraine signed an accord with Russia, Belarus and Kazakhstan on a Common Economic Space. Western bloc showed displeasure indicating that these actions could hinder Ukraine’s rapprochement with the bloc and its membership to the World Trade Organization.

(Economic factors are big drivers of the geopolitics and foreign affairs).

 

Russia and Ukraine were engaged in several disputes, notably over gas in 2006 and 2009 which disrupt Europe’s energy supplies.

(Wheels within wheels)

 

Main Bone Of Contention

Perceiving the CIS as an attempt to bring ex-Soviet republics under Moscow’s control, Ukraine always takes a lukewarm approach to it. Its tilt is towards the West and it seeks ties with the US-led NATO military alliance.

(This is not palatable to Russia. The question is how far it would go to retain control of its erstwhile state)

 

Domestic See Saw

For 10 years under the leadership of Leonid Kuchma, Ukraine staggered between the Eastern and the western bloc.

 

Orange Revolution.  Ukraine’s 2004 presidential election was marred by fraud and the victory of the pro-Russian Viktor Yanukovych provoked unprecedented protests in the peaceful Orange Revolution.

(Classic case of one country meddling in the elections of another one).

 

Western Tilt and Push. The uproar led to the election results being cancelled and pro-Western opposition leader Viktor Yushchenko (who was the victim of a mysterious dioxin poisoning during the campaign), became president.  Yuschenko swiftly reiterated Ukraine’s wish to join the EU, along with NATO. In 2008 at a summit in Bucharest, NATO leaders agreed that Ukraine has a future in the alliance, sparking Moscow’s ire.

(Majority always prevails)

 

Eastern Attempt & Pro-European uprising. Yanukovych got elected as president in 2010, and in November 2013 he suspended the talks on a trade pact with the EU in favour of closer ties with Russia. This sparked a massive protest by pro-European opposition groups demanding that the pro-Russian president quits. The uprising, centred on Kyiv’s Independence Square, came to a head in February 2014 when police fired on the protesters. Around 100 demonstrators and 20 police officers died during the three-month uprising. Finally, Yanukovych fled to Russia and was impeached.

(Russian desperation to retain control is evident)

 

Annexation and War: Further Souring Of Relations.

Pic Courtesy: Internet

In 2014, Russia sent its Special Forces to take control of strategic sites on Ukraine’s Crimea peninsula. In March 2014 Russian President Vladimir Putin signed a treaty absorbing Crimea into Russia. The annexation provoked the worst diplomatic crisis between the West and Russia,  since the fall of the Soviet Union.

(Nibbling Starts)

 

Genesis of Current Crisis

In April 2014, a pro-Russian rebellion erupted in Ukraine’s industrial eastern areas. Pro-Russian separatists in Donetsk and Lugansk declare their regions to be independent. Ukraine and its Western allies accused Russia of instigating the uprising and pouring in arms and troops to bolster the self-proclaimed republics. The clashes became a full-blown conflict in May 2014. This conflict has left more than 14,000 people dead.

 

Present Situation

After massing tens of thousands of soldiers on Ukraine’s borders, Putin on February 21, 2022 recognises the independence of Donetsk and Lugansk.

 

Bottom Line

Russia seems to go to any length to retain control over its erstwhile states.

Russia seems to be following the Chinese policy of nibbling (The difference being instead of Salami slicing it is resorting to nibbling and gobbling up bigger chunks).

 

Question

Where will this East versus West clash of interest lead to?

When will this East versus West clash end?

 

Suggestions and value additions are most welcome

 

Links to previous posts on the subject:

RUSSIA – UKRAINE CRISIS ESCALATES (24 FEB 22)

Latest on Ukraine-Russia Conflict (23 Feb 22)

 

 

For regular updates, please register here

Subscribe

References and credits

To all the online news channels.

 

Posted on

RUSSIA – UKRAINE CRISIS ESCALATES (24 FEB 22)

 

President Vladimir Putin had earlier recognised the independence of two of the states of Ukraine. President Vladimir Putin has received the authorization to use military force outside his country and the west has responded with sanctions. U.S. and European allies accuse Moscow of crossing a red line, in rolling over Ukraine’s border into separatist regions. Some called it an invasion.

(Strategic coercion at play with step by step climbing up the escalatory ladder)

 

Evacuation

Russia began evacuating its embassy and diplomatic posts in Kyiv. Russian flag is no longer flying over the Kyiv embassy.

(Increasing pressure by Strategic signalling)

 

Ukrainian authorities expressed increasing concern and advised its citizens against travel to Russia and recommended anyone there to leave immediately.

(Precautionary steps)

​

​National state of emergency.

Ukraine’s parliament has voted to approve a national state of emergency in response to the threat of a Russian invasion. The measure was overwhelmingly approved on the same day that Moscow began to evacuate its Kyiv embassy and Washington stepped up its warnings about the chances of an all-out Russian attack.

(Policy  – Hope for the best and prepare for the worst)

 

Indian Stand.

Indian Defence Minister voiced India’s stance as that India wants peace and is always been in favour of world peace. India has called for restraint on all sides stating that the Russia-Ukraine dispute should be resolved through talks.

(Guarded tight rope walk. Non aligned policy or policy of equidistance?)

 

Bottom Line

Russia still trying to achieve its objectives by strategic coercion.

Ukraine banking on Collective Security.

 

Question

How far will Russia go?

 

Suggestions and value additions are most welcome

 

For regular updates, please register here

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References and credits

To all the online news channels.