Tag: world order

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14: CHINA THROUGH USA’s PRISM

Annual Report to US Congress. Office of the US secretary of defense recently published the unclassified part of the annual report on military and security developments involving the people’s republic of china. The US Department of Defense (DoD) has been providing this report for the last 20 years.

Scope of these Reports. These reports assess the contours of China’s national strategy, its approach to security and military affairs, and potential changes in the PRC’s armed forces. They essentially include the following:

    • The current and probable future course of military-technological development of the PLA.
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    • The tenets and probable development of Chinese security and military strategy.
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    • Military organizations and operational concepts supporting such development.

2020 Report. This report is special because, 2020 is an important year for the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) before the milestone of the Chinese Communist Party’s (CCP) centenary in 2021. It is also the timeline for the Chinese broader interim goal to transform China into a “moderately prosperous society”. The report covers developments until the end of 2019. Developments in 2020, including the implications of the COVID-19 pandemic, would be covered in the next report.

Report Analysis. The report is of 200 pages with a 15 page executive summary. While the report provides an insight into developments in China and the PLA, it analysis is from Sino-US point of view.

Analysis from Indo-China Perspective. It would be worthwhile to analyze the contents of the report from Indo-China point of view.

Coming up – Series of articles

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China Through USA’s Prism: Indo-China Perspective

Please click here for part 1.

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13: DRAGON’S BRAIN: DIFFERENTLY WIRED (PART 3: DEALING WITH CHINA)

This is the last part of the series of articles on this subject.  This one analyses aspects related to China’s vulnerabilities, her policy and attitude towards India and present day behavior.

Dealing with China

China’s Achilles Heel. China has a few vulnerabilities and insecurities. Her reaction becomes aggressive when these red lines get threatened or crossed. Some of these are:

    • Hunger for Natural Resources and Energy. China is a growing country needing a large amount of natural resources. China also has a very high demand for energy, making it heavily dependent on oil imports.
    • Extended Supply and Communication lines. China’s extended supply and communication lines, both on land and sea could become vulnerable to interdiction, disrupting her supplies. China has been working towards creating redundancy by developing alternate supply routes.
    • Belt and Road Initiative. This project has been initiated by China to revive the old silk route. Her endeavor is to create alternate trade and supply routes connecting various countries. A lot is riding for China on this project, which is already running into some rough weather in a couple of places.
    • Three Ts & Hong Kong. China is very touchy about Trade, Taiwan and Tibet. Even Hong Kong can be added to this list now.
    • Food Security. Recent pandemic and floods in the country have revealed the fault line of food security of the country. The food production is inadequate to meet the demand. Fishing in waters of other countries and leasing of land from other countries for cultivation are efforts towards mitigation of this problem.
    • Age Demography. To control the growing population, China had adopted one child policy. This policy was implemented very forcefully and was successful, however it has created an adverse age demography. The median age of the country is high with a large number of aged population. Each young person has to support two to three aged relatives. As a result it tries to avoid contact warfare, where loss of life would be high. Investment in long range weapons and unmanned platforms corroborates this observation.

Continue reading “13: DRAGON’S BRAIN: DIFFERENTLY WIRED (PART 3: DEALING WITH CHINA)”

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12: DRAGON’S BRAIN: DIFFERENTLY WIRED (PART 2: STRATEGIC AND MILITARY THOUGHTS)

This is continuation of the previous article on the same subject. This part lists out the aspects related to strategies, tactics and means employed as a weapon for achievement of desired goals. These aspects are as follows:

Strategic and Military Thoughts

Rich Strategic Tradition. China has had a number of scholars and philosophers in her thousands of years of history. Chinese Confucian philosophy advocates peaceful political solutions and discourages use of military force. But the works of a number of well-known strategists have heavily influenced her military philosophy, warfare, and political discourse.

Sun Tzu. Sun Tzu was a Chinese general, military strategist, writer and philosopher. He is traditionally credited as the author of The Art of War, an influential work of military strategy. His works focus on alternatives to battle, such as stratagem, delay, the use of spies and alternatives to war itself, the making and keeping of alliances, the uses of deceit and a willingness to submit, at least temporarily, to more powerful foes. His writings have deeply influenced military thought in China. Major ones which are visible in China’s actions are as follows:

    • “The supreme art of war is to subdue the enemy without fighting.”
    • “All warfare is based on deception. Hence, when we are able to attack, we must seem unable; when using our forces, we must appear inactive; when we are near, we must make the enemy believe we are far away; when far away, we must make him believe we are near.”
    • “Appear weak when you are strong, and strong when you are weak.”
    • “When strong, avoid them. If of high morale, depress them. Seem humble to fill them with conceit. If at ease, exhaust them. If united, separate them. Attack their weaknesses. Emerge to their surprise.”
    • “There is no instance of a nation benefitting from prolonged warfare.”
    • “Let your plans be dark and impenetrable as night, and when you move, fall like a thunderbolt.”
    • “Move swift as the Wind and closely-formed as the Wood. Attack like the Fire and be still as the Mountain.”

Continue reading “12: DRAGON’S BRAIN: DIFFERENTLY WIRED (PART 2: STRATEGIC AND MILITARY THOUGHTS)”